how does this bet look right about now??

suicidekings · 02-22-11, 01:37 AM

Depends on your expectation of how many wins it will take to make the 8th seed in the west. The average wins needed over the last 3 seasons is 49 to advance. Denver has 25 games left, 12 at home and 13 on the road. If nothing had changed with their roster I would have expected them not to exceed 46 total wins with an implied no-vig ML of around +250 for them not to make it. So you got a good deal.

If Denver makes no more moves, I wouldn't describe the trade as resulting in a significant downgrade for the Nuggets. We're only talking about a 5ppg or so downgrade offensively, with somewhat improved D. So it's a great price but could still be close.

However, it looks like Denver might not be done dealing yet, and almost everyone is on the table. If Nene gets traded I would be very confident in the ticket. And if you see them lose more than 4 of their remaining 12 home games, it's all over for them.

Nice pick.

DemoralizdDreamr · 02-22-11, 03:14 AM

thanks bro, lets hope it cashes

GO CANUCKS GO

lolbear · 02-22-11, 03:18 AM

i'm not so sure if it's a "5ppg" downgrade. The fact that hte culture around the players and the system and new teammates all play a huge role. the former knicks' stats are also inflated by dantoni's run and gun. They have a roster of Felton/Lawson, afflalo/smith, gallo/chandler, kmart, nene/mozgov. is it a solid realy young team? yes. given that roster would they be able to make the playoff? even without the other factors it seems like a stretch. your ticket looks good to me, GL

oiler · 02-22-11, 03:22 AM

i really think ny gave up too much talent and draft picks but i guess time will tell

suicidekings · 02-22-11, 03:34 AM

Originally posted by lolbear

i'm not so sure if it's a "5ppg" downgrade. The fact that hte culture around the players and the system and new teammates all play a huge role. the former knicks' stats are also inflated by dantoni's run and gun. They have a roster of Felton/Lawson, afflalo/smith, gallo/chandler, kmart, nene/mozgov. is it a solid realy young team? yes. given that roster would they be able to make the playoff? even without the other factors it seems like a stretch. your ticket looks good to me, GL

As opposed to the Nuggets being a noted half court team?...

In truth, Karl's style of play is not going to be a shock to the new additions. Lots of fast breaks and 3 point shooting are the norm for Denver. However that doesn't take away from the fact that Denver is giving up experience in Melo/Billups and specifically, late game closing ability and floor leadership. I think a 5ppg reduction in offensive potential in a given game is a fair estimate, and assuming that the defense will improve with the new Denver Knicks team, the net impact won't be as severe with respect to point differential. I just think the impact will be seen in the win/loss column.

JNic · 02-22-11, 03:36 AM

its looking good