Sanchez over/under picks

[sanchez]

I have a system I am testing out for totals based on the rate of play for each team and I'd like to keep track of it.

2/12

NY/NJ 205.5 UNDER WON

CHA/ATL 187.5 UNDER WON

DAL/HOU 207.5 UNDER LOST

OKC/SAC 208.5 UNDER WON



SEASON RECORD 3-1

[face]

is the system based on where the money is, or is the system a mathematical/situational system?

[sanchez]

Mathematical system based on the rate of speed that teams play at, didn't factor in any situational angles

Only threw the money stats in there to determine what to do if you wanted to bet it.

Figure I'd try this system out for a few days and if it works start betting it

[sanchez]

2-0 on the early games off to a good start!!

[sanchez]

Tough break on the Dal/Hou game over by half a point

[sanchez]

Great first night, seems the system might work. Went 3-1 and the only loss being by half a point!

[NYSportsGuy210]

What do you say about the Clippers-Raptors game OVER- UNDER tomorrow? It's at 207.5 right now.

[sanchez]

Unfortunately I can't get a read on it using my system since the Raptors haven't played the Clippers with Blake Griffin. Gun to my head I'd have to say over I guess, but I can't recommend it as a play since I don't have any numbers to back it up. Working on my numbers for tomorrow right now, should have them soon.

[sanchez]

2/13

WAS/CLE 208 UNDER LOST

OKC/GS 214 OVER LOST

POR/DET 187 UNDER LOST

LAL/ORL 195 OVER LOST

MIA/BOS 189.5 OVER LOST

SAC/PHO 206 NO PLAY line is too accurate
DEN/MEM 209.5 NO PLAY line is too accurate
LAC/TOR NO PLAY Don't have any statistics on Blake Griffin & Co vs Toronto

Best play on top, weaker plays as you go down the list


SEASON RECORD 3-6

[sanchez]

Wow terrible night, under teams shot well, over teams shot poorly

2/14

ATL/DET 185 UNDER

LAC/MIL 184 UNDER

POR/MIN 202 UNDER

[sanchez]

Perfect night! Will have picks for tomorrow soon.

2/14

ATL/DET 185 UNDER WON

LAC/MIL 184 UNDER WON

POR/MIN 202 UNDER WON


UNDER Plays 6-3
OVER Plays 0-3
SEASON RECORD 6-6

[DEGENR8]

nice 3-0 rebound!

[sanchez]

2/15

nor/gs 201 under

char/chi 182 over

phi/mem 190.5 under

mia/ind 206.5 under

sac/okc 207.5 under

[sanchez]

2/15

nor/gs 201 under WIN

char/chi 182 over WIN

phi/mem 190.5 under LOST

mia/ind 206.5 under LOST

sac/okc 207.5 under LOST

My top 2 plays won and my weaker plays lost. Still trying to figure out what to go forward with as plays after I crunch the numbers, I think I am going to have to be more selective and play only the best games.

UNDER Plays 7-6
OVER Plays 1-3
SEASON RECORD 8-9

[Borat38]

My top 2 plays won and my weaker plays lost. Still trying to figure out what to go forward with as plays after I crunch the numbers, I think I am going to have to be more selective and play only the best games.

UNDER Plays 7-6
OVER Plays 1-3
SEASON RECORD 8-9

But then how do you identify which are the "best games"? If you have a system that's been backtested, the best way is to play every game, IMO. Otherwise there is still an element of guesswork in your betting.

[sanchez]

My system analyzes the rate of play of the two teams, and how accurate they are at shooting all of their different shots, and comes up with a projected total points for the game. You definitely don't want to play every game, because sometimes I see little or no difference between my projected total and the over/under total. Some times it's 5 points, sometimes it's 7 points, etc. What I'm trying to figure out now is how many points is a good play and when to consider a game a no play.

So I'm not guessing, I need to establish how much of a point difference I need to make a game worthwhile. Less games is the way to go. The lines I had the most difference with and therefore felt the best about my picks, both went through last night.

[sanchez]

Sorry if that was unclear, basically using my system I calculate the totals for every game. What I need to work on is judgment of how big a point difference between my totals and the book totals warrants a bet.