Denver/Detroit -2.5?!

**oiler** · 01-26-11, 03:36 PM

well considering detroit has dominated denver at home doesnt make it a steal unless your thinking about detroit

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 03:45 PM

Ehhh it's clear who the better team is here, no?

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 03:48 PM

Am I wrong to think that the fact that Detroit edges them out @ home is reason for this line to be inflated? Denver is easily a 2.5 point favorite to Detroit. Am I wrong to think that past results has fogged this line up, when in fact Denver IS the better team? I looked at those stats prior to placing wager, Oiler, and was aware of Detroits home stats against Denver.

**oiler** · 01-26-11, 03:50 PM

do what u do ,i just gave my opinion .no harm in doing that,didint know if u knew that

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 03:51 PM

I am appreciative of your opinion, I was just trying to pick your brain further... Please continue to give your opinion and feedback man, it is greatly appreciated

**suicidekings** · 01-26-11, 03:55 PM

IMO, Denver is going to be tough to beat on this current roadtrip and think they stand a solid chance of covering the -2.5, however, there are a lot of guys whose opinions I respect a lot that are backing the Pistons strongly tonight. If you like it, hit it, but don't go big on it I think.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 04:14 PM

Also debating the over/under, at 203.5. I found it interested that on Covers.com it reports 95 percent of people on the over. What do you guys think? Why so high when the majority of the totals in their last 10 games together, went under that number? I understand no team plays too good of defense, but if history is correct, why would such a staggeringly polarized percentage arrive?

**oiler** · 01-26-11, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by politicin

Also debating the over/under, at 203.5. I found it interested that on Covers.com it reports 95 percent of people on the over. What do you guys think? Why so high when the majority of the totals in their last 10 games together, went under that number? I understand no team plays too good of defense, but if history is correct, why would such a staggeringly polarized percentage arrive?

this detroit team is not as good a defense as the old pistons.plus i dod believe the last 5 in series has gone over.mcgrady is playing good but i think it will be a up and down game but still dont have a feel on the total just yet

**nulldah** · 01-26-11, 04:29 PM

denver will cover this, carmelo has been really hot these few games, unless he really goes cold in less than 24 hours

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by oiler

this detroit team is not as good a defense as the old pistons.plus i dod believe the last 5 in series has gone over.mcgrady is playing good but i think it will be a up and down game but still dont have a feel on the total just yet

So Detroit is worse on D, which leads me even more to believe Denver will cover this, and the past match ups lead to such a low spread. Smashed the Denver -2.5 and over 203.5... LETS GET IT

**Shark** · 01-26-11, 04:41 PM

yea im not sure i could play this at -2.5. I thought it should be -5. I'll have to lay off.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 04:42 PM

You were considering Detroit if you got 5 points Shark?

**BernardMadoff** · 01-26-11, 04:46 PM

Based on power ratings Denver should be only a 2 point favorite, not the 2.5, so think what you want with this, its never easy on the road, I hardly bet on Denver anyway unless its at home, Id hate to coach that team, they play dumb, dont run halfcourt sets and are usually unmotivated unless at home.

**Adr3nalin3 Ru5h** · 01-26-11, 04:56 PM

idk politicin this looks like a home dog day!!

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 05:16 PM

Hey Bernie, maybe you can clear something up for me. As far as the Sagarin ratings, Denver is rated 92.6 (ranked 10th) and Detroit 86.80 (ranked 23rd). What am I missing here?

**BernardMadoff** · 01-26-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by politicin

Hey Bernie, maybe you can clear something up for me. As far as the Sagarin ratings, Denver is rated 92.6 (ranked 10th) and Detroit 86.80 (ranked 23rd). What am I missing here?

Factor in homecourt and that leaves a spread of 3 or 2 depending on how much one values it, should be valued favorably in Detroit.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 05:21 PM

I'm not saying anything, just telling you what the Sagarin ratings tell me. I don't know enough to make a claim either way, but I personally don't see how it could be 2.5, if I had to take a guess. What ratings are you looking at?

**BernardMadoff** · 01-26-11, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by politicin

I'm not saying anything, just telling you what the Sagarin ratings tell me. I don't know enough to make a claim either way, but I personally don't see how it could be 2.5, if I had to take a guess. What ratings are you looking at?

Check what I edited. Homecourt brings that number alot closer, there is a reason it opened at 2.5 and is now 2.

**kellen2811** · 01-26-11, 05:31 PM

Denver sometimes lays down on the road. They seem to be disinterested at time. They are a bipolar team, if you can catch them on a hot night then you are fine

**Pauulzcappin** · 01-26-11, 05:32 PM

Denver is 0-14 in the Palace of the Malice since 95. Would not bet against this streak.

**POTVINSUX** · 01-26-11, 05:36 PM

Im riding the streak till it busts

**JOHON8** · 01-26-11, 05:41 PM

The spread is correct, this game will be tight could come down to a buzzer beater, so anyone thinking -2.5 is a steal will probably be frustrated by a 0.5 loss.

**Pauulzcappin** · 01-26-11, 05:42 PM

Sam is on Denver, by the way.

**suicidekings** · 01-26-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Denver is 0-14 in the Palace of the Malice since 95. Would not bet against this streak.

The last time Denver played in Detroit was December of 2009... Before that, March 2009, then March 2008. Historical trends seem far less relevant to me than the fact that the Pistons are coming off a huge road win over the Magic as a +800 dog and are in a good spot for a letdown tonight, while the Nuggets are currently on a 5-2 run (SU & ATS) and on an important 5 game road trip (all games against sub .500 teams) in which they have a huge opportunity to make up ground in the western standings.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 06:16 PM

I agree, historical trends are fun, but I find them for the most part to have no relevance to today's game.

**Pauulzcappin** · 01-26-11, 06:37 PM

You can get Denver at -1.5 -101 right now at Pinnacle.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 07:32 PM

yuck

**Pauulzcappin** · 01-26-11, 08:06 PM

Rodney Stuckey is hurt and probably out of the game. You are in a good spot now.

**ProPicker713** · 01-26-11, 08:07 PM

AWesome

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 09:34 PM

so far so good... the offer is shot though

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 09:38 PM

wow im an idiot and am too high to do math... over looking great

**Pauulzcappin** · 01-26-11, 09:40 PM

Refs are calling everything on Denver, easier that way.

**politicin** · 01-26-11, 10:01 PM

what a good game... Billups is lighting it up, but Detroit's right in there...

CK · 01-26-11, 10:03 PM

Yep, coming down to the wire here... TMac really looking good as of late.