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Good job today...I really got burned by all the overs today so I think some adjustments need to be made.Comment -
Sorry to hear MBP... could just be variance in the long run it'll work out.
I have 2 plays for today
MIA@POR / Line: 184.5
5Day: 198 / Over
YTD: 194 / Over
Note: In that game the combined "relevant" under statistics is 14-7... either way sticking with my model it says over... so we'll see
NO@DEN / Line 201.5
5Day: 188 / Under
YTD: 196 / Under
Decent day yesterday... currently sitting at 39-27. BOL on your guys plays
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Ya...the variance is hard to predict. I will doing constant tweaks here and there so I don't expect things to be perfect all the time. We're on the same page with the MIA game as that's the only plays that qualify's for me. I'm tailing you on the NO Under...although it doesn't qualify as a play that seems to be the play if I were. You may have something good here so I hope you plan on sticking with it. GL Today...I'll be at the bowl game tonight so I'm off the grid...Let's get it.Comment -
Probably won't be around tomorrow before the games start, so these are the predictions for tomorrow (or today if you are EST)...
DET@CHI / Line: 189.5
5Day: 197 / Over
YTD: 193 / Over
HOU@BOS / Line [ Not Posted ... I would play anything under 200/201 anything over 192 as a play I like
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5Day: 198.5
YTD: 196
MEM@CHAR / Line: 193 [Not a huge fan of this line, I think I like the UNDER more. Possibly watch the line movement, I will see if I have time to come back tomorrow to make a pick otherwise this a No Play for me]
5Day: 196 / Over
YTD: 190 / Under
41-27 since 12/28Comment -
I took the under on MEM@CHAR.
The line on HOU@BOS is too tight to make it more than a toss up for the model.Comment -
I have started looking at over/unders as related to averate home/away and NBA Referee's average home/away.
Today's games...
Chi vs Det Over
Boston vs Houston under (but too close to bet)
Memphis vs Charlotte Over
I have just started so not much history yet.
I don't mean to hijack your thread just saying we are close on a couple of games.
Good luck to you.Comment -
Hey billy, definitely not hijacking... if you have some opinions / data post it up, I'm still trying to fix some things in the model.
For instance, I could see the over as a play in the memphis game, but I'm sticking with my YTD predicton of 190 since it is within the margin that I kinda like as the bare minimumComment -
i love your system, buried. Almost tailed you on the bulls game but when I saw the unders in chicagos last 16 home games and unders in detroits last 16 road games i had to take the under. Glad i did. Good call on the cats though, almot took that one too.Comment -
Hey echo, thanks for the support... working on the model and making predictions has honestly been a lot of fun for me.
I think I have started to learn where my predicting comfort range is... I spent a lot of time thinking about it when after my initial success I hit a 1-5 day when I know a fair amount of people tailed me. Since then things have been looking up and I've been 22-11... hoping to keep the right predictions rolling
Also, nice call on CHI under... I could've seen an under play (I am using 3-4 numbers now, only posting the 5day and YTD tho). Either way, I did think my Over was in "decent" shape when DET was up 55-46 at HT. I figured CHI would go on a run, but not totally dominate the Pistons to just 35ish in the 2nd half!Comment -
I have my predictions done for tomorrow, just waiting on all of the lines to be up to post which plays I like.Comment -
IND@PHI / Line: 196
5Day: 190 / Under
YTD: 188 / Under
SAC@WAS / Line: 198
5Day: 187 / Under
YTD: 194 / Under
Other close lines ...
SAS@MIN / Line: 206 [This line is probably about my cut off where I feel safe predicting... adding it as a play]
5Day: 199 / Under
YTD: 201 / Under
CLE@LAL / Line: 199 [No play as of now... lean is Over ]
5day: 208 / Over
YTD: 199 / Under
42-28 thus farComment -
how much weight does your 5day number add to the formula? or is it a separate entity?Comment -
Separate entity... the YTD has been giving me pretty good results but teams change and go through ups and downs. When I see a strong 5Day that matches a strong YTD I think that's a good play. An example of that was the BOS@CHI on 1-08. The line was 188, the YTD: was 185 and 5day was in the 170's (total in the game was 169). Definitely not perfect, but comparing the two numbers I think provides some bearings.
For instance, on tonights slate I think SAC@WAS has a good chance of going under given that the YTD is -4 off the line and 5day is -12...
Overall I think the YTD is a stronger indicator, because when you look at 5 day you have to consider strength of schedule, home/away splits, various freak injuries etc.. it is just another gaugeComment -
i think your model needs to be more refined...as in if star players are out. Iguodala might be back for 76ers...so under is the play...without him over is the play....and so on.Comment -
What does you model say about suns game?Comment -
I agree. I have been trying to track star player injuries, but it's still difficult to gauge how that injury influences the game. That is also why I post my numbers instead of just the plays though. If you think Igoudala will score more points and the defense is constant, then yes it should go up. You also gotta consider that his replacement might allow more points on defense too negating the points that he doesn't score... know what I am kinda trying to say?
My model says the Suns are a strong under but I have stopped trying to predict games with lines above 207ish...
I've been using regression analysis which is going to underestimate huge totals.Comment -
good luck today.Comment -
LOL actually won the SAS@MIN game... record goes to 43-30.
1-2 tonight, hoping to come back strong tomorrow.Comment -
CHI@CHAR / Line: 185.5
5Day: 191 / Over
YTD: 187 / Over
SAS@MIL / Line: 187.5
5Day: 194 / Over
YTD: 190 / Over
MEM@DET / Line: 192.5
5Day: 195 / Over
YTD: 199 / Over
SAC@BOS / Line: 196
5Day: 194 / Under
YTD: 190 / Under
ATL@TOR / Line: 205.5
5Day: 201 / Under
YTD: 200 / Under
MIA@LAC / Line: 194
5Day: 204 / Over
YTD: 195.5 / Over (tighter than I would like... going to roll with it though...)
43-30 ... since 12/28Comment -
Yesterday was an off day all around...better luck today. You can't predict these things all the time and I'm you've had more winning days than losing so that's a positive.Comment -
good luck bro! picks look pretty goodComment -
the line on miami is down to 192 on 5dimesComment -
I had the over (208.5) in the Spurs game, and honestly, it should have went over. I definitely feel it was the right play. The only scored 4 points in the final 2:30. Missed it by six. Oh well. Keep it up dude!Comment -
I agree... I jumped the gun yesterday and declared it a loss at half and said it wasn't my day. Then again if that scoring drought had happened in the first quarter it could have been on pace all game... different ways to look at it I guess.
I'm going to keep it up as long as I'm still giving you guys better than a 50-50!! Sitting at 43-30 right now and hoping to keep getting betterComment -
definitely great job broComment -
Had no plays last night hope you guys did okay.
Record is currently 47-32 going into plays for today. Not all lines are up but I'm going to post what I am on thus far:
NJN@LAL / Line: 191.5
5Day: 198 / Over
YTD: 196 / Over
CLE@UTA / Line: 196
5Day: 209 / Over
YTD: 199 / Over
CHAR@BOS / Line: 188
5Day: 193 / Over
YTD: 187 / Under (Playing the Under on Boston at home has burned me so far this year, but here we are again *playing under*)
CHI@IND / Line: 190
5Day: 184 / Under
YTD: 184 / UnderComment -
Also adding:
POR@PHX / Line: 195.5
5Day: 200 / Over
YTD: 205 / OverComment -
Mind me asking how much ur betting each game and what college you went toComment -
Not bad, not bad at all. Good luck to you tonight.Comment
