Avatar NBA Thread 2010/2011

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OK, will start my own thread with plays and hope to be 1 of 10% threads that survive till end of the season

Tonight's plays:
SAN ANTONIO +2.5
I do not see a reason why Orlando MAgic at this point should be considered equivalent team to San Antonio. Any time team with record 25W:3L plays team with record 1W 8L in last 9 games, I will take the first one and gladly accept spread points as bonus.

MILWAUKEE -2
Looking at +/- adjusted player value, Jennings actually has a slight negative impact on the team. After first 2 games with him out it's hard to judge - they have been blown out by frail blazers and they've blown out lakers, so figure it out...but sacramento is so bad (look at game at GS what was one of the worst executed 4th quarters on home court i've seen, and i guess it starts with coach and ends with cousins) that i will ride against them with so small spread until they will prove otherwise. Hopefully Bucks will show up...
Still looking at Suns/Heat...

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DENVER -3.5
Denver is very strong at home and -3.5 points looks too little against mediocre team like philadelphia, even without Anthony. Lone stat says it all: Denv is 12-2 home, while sixers is 3-12 away

YTD 1-1

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Rolling tonight with

DETROIT +5.5
bobcats it total mess and one of the 3 worst teams in nba now. their last 4 games their margin has been: -18, -33, -5, -33. Silas is a nice guy, but I do not see him somebody who would turn this thing around in overnight.

MEMPHIS -6.5
Toronto is another awful team, particularly on road. This is a must win game for Memphis if they are targeting play offs. I expect Memphis banging it in the paint and raptors picking fouls quite fast.

PORTLAND +7.5
I think it's too much points for division foe which is scrapping to get 8th spot in west. If portland will manage to play down to it's slow tempo, low scoring game should help to cover spread

LA CLIPPERS +1.5
This line looks way too off, or I'missing something here. LAC has beaten kings two times this season and I do not see it should be much different this time when LAC is at it's best so far and kings is at it's lowest. If kings could not beat bucks with bogout as only credible big, than it's hard to see kings succeeding here against jordan&griffin.

SIXERS +2.5
Last's night game has convinced me that sixers can win on any given night and I do not rate warriors as high as nuggets at home.

YTD 1-2

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And some totals:
MAGIC/NETS Under 191.0
BLAZERS/JAZZ under 191.5
SIXERS/WARRIORS Under 205

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YTD
Sides 5-3
Totals 1-1-1

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Early pick:
ORLANDO -7
Orlando enjoys the game and winning at the moment (after slump recently and i.e. Arenas and Turkoglu has not won too many games in last 2 years) while Clevelend just purely lacks talent. Orlando is just hot team now and I expet that odds soon will be adjusted accrdingly as one of top 3 teams now.

Looking at Dallas, but at first want to see what is situation with Dirk's injury.

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PORTLAND +8.0
I do not see Portland winning this game, but it they will manage to keep low scoring game like last night, they should be scrappy enough to cover the spread.

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YTD
Sides 6-4
Totals 1-1-1

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Early picks:
WASHINGTON -2.5
Indy is on slump recently. They are outscored by -44 in last 3 away games and by -26 in last 2 home games. Washington has some good wins or tough loses at home (Mia by 1 , orl by 1) so expect them to cope quite good with struggling pacers.
MEMPHIS -4
Continuing to ride against Kings with small spreads until they prove they are not one of 2 worst teams in nba.

Leaning towards Detroit, New Orleans, LA Clippers but will wait till lines move to get more points

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Adding:
CLEVELAND +8.0
In game between 2 of 3 worst nba teams at the moment I will go with +8 points without looking which team is favoured and which is dog. It took a career game for dj augustin to beat pistons by 5 points 2 nights ago. Do not have faith for the same performance 2 nights in row.
DENVER +1.5
Denver showed some solid defense yesterday against jump shooting blazers. Denver might struggle on perimeter against Minnesota 3point shooting, but have advantage at front court. Billups seems to have getting back in form. I'm just going with a better team here.
PHILADELPHIA +5.5
Philadelphia is under the radar in the league and is underrated.Suns last win with more than 6 points was on December 5th against Wizards, despite their high scoring game flow. Considering 3points home court advantage, I jsut do not see Suns as 2-3 points per game better team than Sixers at current stage.
NEW ORLEANS +3.5
LA LAkers is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS against 50%+ teams this season and 4-8 when favored with less than -5.5. Surely Kobe can shoot lights out and Lakers can win this easily, but as well he can shoot lakers out of game. NOH is not doing that bad at home and is 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS at home.

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Adding some totals:

Bobcats/Cavs under 197.5
T-wolves/Nuggets over 218.0

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tough loss on celvelenad with 1 point...and well memphis loss to sacramento....
YTD
Sides 9-7
Totals 3-1-1

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no picks tonight. Leaning towards over in Dallas and Orlando games, but not with current lines.

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Though decided to roll with 1 pick I like:
ORLANDO -7.0
Orlando has won last 4 games at least with 8 points, and I do not see why they should not do it again on home court. Besides I like one matchup in orlando's favour : Nelson torched Felton last year in games with bobcats, that made Felton look like less than average pg. I like also over in this game, but have not decided yet about it.

Will ride with 3 NHL games tonight:
Columbus +160 (3 way)
Colorado +115 (3 way)
LA Kings +140 (3 way)

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Confirmed Dirk is out for the game, will go with Spurs -3
By all sources Dirk is most valuable player to his team across the league. Mavs is scoring barely 85 points per 48 min without Dirk on court, while with him in it's close to 105 mark.I just do not see wh o would create a shot forhimself all game long, besides Spurs defense has improved lately so they should be able to contain jumpers from Dallas.

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YTD
NBA Sides 11-7
NBA Totals 3-1-1
NHL:1-2, -0.4 units

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For last night this year early picks:
WASHINGTON +6.0
GOLDEN STATE +2.5

WARRIORS/BOBCATS under 210.0

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Adding NBA
DETROIT +6.0
PHILADELPHIA +9.5
HORNETS/CELTICS under 184.5
NETS/BULLS under 187.0
PISTONS/SUNS over 209.5
SIXERS/LAKERS under 196

NHL
ATLANTA +160 (3 way)
DETROIT -155 (3 way)
COLUMBUS +135 (3 way)
ST LOIS +110 (3 way)

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Can not leave on the table BOSTON -4.5 playing at home.

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Looking good so far 4-2...

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YTD
NBA Sides 13-9
NBA Totals 6-3-1
NHL:2-5, -2.05 units

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Early Jan 1st picks:
TIMBERWOLVES -4.0
OKLAHOMA CITY +6.5

[eSTOXX]

TIMBERWOLVES -4.0

GL

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TIMBERWOLVES -4.0

GL

Thanks

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Adding
MEMPHIS +7.0
Utah won it by 9 points on Dec 4 meeting. I have a feeling that Utah has gotten worse since then and Memphis a little better (though with the same inconsistency). Without healthy Kirilenko, Rudy Gay would be for good game here

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Adding
CAVS/BULLS over 189.5
with Varajo out of game, bulls should be able to penetrate, get put backs and off rebounds to drive result up to 100+ points.
THUNDERS/SPURS over 203.5

One more game to come....

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Adding
WIZARDS +2.0

Playing around with NHL:
Boston +155 (3way)
Carolina -110 (3way)
Pittsburgh +120 (3way)
LA Kings +130 (3way)

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YTD
NBA Sides 15-11
NBA Totals 7-4-1
NHL:3-8, -4.14 units

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2 Early picks for Jan 2
NY KNICKS -6.5
KINGS/SUNS over 206.5
MAVS/CAVS over 188.0

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Adding
GRIZZLIES/LA LAKERS under 200.5
Grizzlies games has not reached this mark at least in last 10 games in 48 mins (did not bother to look further).
LA Lakers has reached this mark only 2 times - with Raptors and Pacers (203 points). I would say there is good chance it will not happen this time.

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YTD
NBA Sides 15-12
NBA Totals 9-5-1
NHL:3-8, -4.14 units

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Early birds:
WARRIORS/MAGIC under 211.5
SIXERS/HORNETS under 188.0

[VicVega91]

Good luck today !!

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Good luck today !!

will need it tonight. Thanks!

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Adding:
T-WOLVES/CELTICS over 202
T-WOLVES +9.0
SIXERS +6.0 (normally would wait out and try to get +6.5)
PISTONS +10.5 (T-MAC should be able to keep up with Jazz normal pace and play some minutes as point guard)
Thats all for this night from NBA. Maybe will mess around with NHL later