Dallas @ Miami -7

**sexmann** · 12-20-10, 03:12 PM

don´t know bout the game, just like the over

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:19 PM

seems most here like the over. Both teams have outstanding defenses though.

**CheeseHead** · 12-20-10, 03:21 PM

I mentioned this in SJ's thread and people may not agree but...

Miami/Dallas is being offered straight up on ESPN's Streak for the Cash game today. The goal of this game is to build the longest winning streak by picking winners of random sports props/games. These props/games tend to be around -110 on both sides, with some -140/-150 favorites each day.. When there are huge favorites on the board (Miami, -300 today), it tends to be a trap. I've been playing the game for probably a year and a half now, and there are plenty of those "trap" games put up on the board. Of course, there's still times those "traps" win and Miami could very well win tonight. But, this makes me think that there's a good possibility that Dallas could win this game straight up as well. It seems that as good of a team as Dallas is, they should be able to keep it within 7 at least. You guys don't have to agree with me on this and it's just my opinion...thought I would throw that information out there... Good luck on whatever you decide!

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:29 PM

good info cheesehead.. reading aroung quite a few like Dallas and the line went up. My initial lean was Heat, but gotta thinking and looking into it more and changed to Dallas, now kinda confused. Dallas would be the most quality win of the season imo for the Heat.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-20-10, 03:30 PM

I'll possibly take Dallas + the points here.

Miami's starters are arguably better here and they will probably have no answer for Lebron and WAde, but on defense it gets very tricky.

How is bosh gonna stop a guy who's a few inches tallers, stronger than him and with a rainbow jumper?

Nowitzki won't be stopped here and if they double-team him and some shit there are lot of offensive 3-pt weapons DAllas has: Stevenson, TErry, Kidd, Butler.

Also, unless BOsh/wade/lebron play 48 minutes each, DAllas has the upper hand on the bench. They are deep in all positions and should easily win the +/- bench battle.

I think Lebron and Wade drop 30 each but Dallas still covers.

**djpremier36** · 12-20-10, 03:31 PM

First instinct says take Dallas +7

beaten Miami 5 straight times
are 7-2 ATS on the road (6-2 ATS vs. the West) so this should be a close game at worst.

Then I ask, why is the spread this high?

Revenge factor
Mavs haven't beat an elite East team yet
Cavs have dominated the West teams with the exception of Dallas

Public is backing Dallas as the spread rises makes me wanna take the Heat -6.5.

This line reminds me of the Mavs in Cleveland last year, similar line and spot.

**Avon Barksdale** · 12-20-10, 03:32 PM

dallas pts. dallas bench keeps it close and chandler/haywood combination inside.

**Fiasco01** · 12-20-10, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

I mentioned this in SJ's thread and people may not agree but...

Miami/Dallas is being offered straight up on ESPN's Streak for the Cash game today. The goal of this game is to build the longest winning streak by picking winners of random sports props/games. These props/games tend to be around -110 on both sides, with some -140/-150 favorites each day.. When there are huge favorites on the board (Miami, -300 today), it tends to be a trap. I've been playing the game for probably a year and a half now, and there are plenty of those "trap" games put up on the board. Of course, there's still times those "traps" win and Miami could very well win tonight. But, this makes me think that there's a good possibility that Dallas could win this game straight up as well. It seems that as good of a team as Dallas is, they should be able to keep it within 7 at least. You guys don't have to agree with me on this and it's just my opinion...thought I would throw that information out there... Good luck on whatever you decide!

I've noticed that about their options for the SFTC...they offer basic picks despite the actual lines beings -5 and above...interesting point here.

Initially I was liking Dallas to cover the 7 points here, I don't see how Miami wins in a blowout. Especially if Miller plays tonite...

**playa420** · 12-20-10, 03:34 PM

Dallas +7 is like an early christmas gift, theres no way in hell a good team like Dallas should be getting this many points. They have a good chance at winning SU and the points are a really sweet deal!

**Avon Barksdale** · 12-20-10, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by djpremier36

First instinct says take Dallas +7

beaten Miami 5 straight times
are 7-2 ATS on the road (6-2 ATS vs. the West) so this should be a close game at worst.

Then I ask, why is the spread this high?

Revenge factor
Mavs haven't beat an elite East team yet
Cavs have dominated the West teams with the exception of Dallas

Public is backing Dallas as the spread rises makes me wanna take the Heat -6.5.

This line reminds me of the Mavs in Cleveland last year, similar line and spot.

this doesn't make sense.

dallas has beaten boston, miami, philly in philly, atlanta in atlanta and charlotte. they play orlando for the first time after this miami game.

not sure what the cavs have to do with anything.

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:40 PM

Kinda scary the whole Board is on Dallas basically. Dallas looks like a good idead because taking the Heat you are basically betting they win by DD and that is asking alot considering Dallas is a veteran unit use to playing with one another and use to beating good teams on the road. Dallas not use to getting beat by DD, yet everybody likes Dallas and the line goes up??? I would have felt better if the line opened at -6 and stayed at -6,but it did not with everybody here liking Dallas basically.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-20-10, 03:42 PM

Why cap if you fade the board, right

**djpremier36** · 12-20-10, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by Avon Barksdale

this doesn't make sense. dallas has beaten boston, miami, philly in philly, atlanta in atlanta and charlotte. they play orlando for the first time after this miami game. not sure what the cavs have to do with anything.

Ok, Dallas beat Boston and Miami at home...the rest of those teams are pretenders. They are not at home for this game.

Last year when the Mavs were 6-7 point underdogs in Cleveland and everybody was saying that that is way too many points for a great road team like Dallas. Cavs went on to kill them and cover easily. Just saying...

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Why cap if you fade the board, right

I don't pau.I was just making an observation.

**Avon Barksdale** · 12-20-10, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by djpremier36

Ok, Dallas beat Boston and Miami at home...the rest of those teams are pretenders. They are not at home for this game.

Last year when the Mavs were 6-7 point underdogs in Cleveland and everybody was saying that that is way too many points for a great road team like Dallas. Cavs went on to kill them and cover easily. Just saying...

dallas is a lot better team this year than last.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-20-10, 03:45 PM

There's some RLM in this game with the split action, I agree.

Btw last year Cavs had a decent inside-game, what about now?

I just wish the line would go to +7 +100 so I could take the 7.5 at -110 juice

**lolbear** · 12-20-10, 03:45 PM

dallas ML ftw

**djpremier36** · 12-20-10, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Avon Barksdale

dallas is a lot better team this year than last.

I would say the same about Miami. I was giving an example of what I have seen happen and now foresee happening. Just my 2 cents...

Any time I see a "good team" getting over 6 points, I raise a red flag.

**JR007** · 12-20-10, 03:52 PM

welcome back Lyon...heard you were "hangin out' with "Goatie"over the weekend......what a "bad beat' that is

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by JR007

welcome back Lyon...heard you were "hangin out' with "Goatie"over the weekend......what a "bad beat' that is

Thanks good to be back. SBR told me I "needed" some time off.

**JOHON8** · 12-20-10, 03:57 PM

The majority of the public is on Dallas handicap in this game, that is not looking good for Dallas backers. We didn't think Miami would cover vs New York, but they blew them out. Now they are playing a home game with a lot of motivation in front of their fans, an improved defense then the last time they met Dallas and revenge on their minds.

Taking Dallas is pretty stupid because you are hoping Miami doesn't blow them out and that's not intelligent gambling IMO.

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by djpremier36

I would say the same about Miami. I was giving an example of what I have seen happen and now foresee happening. Just my 2 cents...

Any time I see a "good team" getting over 6 points, I raise a red flag.

Good point. My inital lean was Miami, favoring Miami because of the situational angle and there current play and then i got to digging and it went to Dallas. Dallas looks a little to "convenient". Easily a top 5 team getting almost DD on the road where they have thrived..looks easy and most like Dallas.

**Pauulzcappin** · 12-20-10, 04:00 PM

What's your take on this game Johon?

**djpremier36** · 12-20-10, 04:03 PM

I'm thinking of laying off this game...maybe play Heat for one unit.

**greenshark11** · 12-20-10, 04:04 PM

im gonna stay away from this game tonight. im leaning towards the heat though

**yurnero** · 12-20-10, 04:05 PM

i like dallas and the points, both teams are elite teams, miami is playing out of their minds as of now, but i think dallas can keep it close

**Avon Barksdale** · 12-20-10, 04:06 PM

Dallas is a better team than Miami and is getting 7 points. Not really sure why there is a big debate whether they are worth playing or not.

**djpremier36** · 12-20-10, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Avon Barksdale

Dallas is a better team than Miami and is getting 7 points. Not really sure why there is a big debate whether they are worth playing or not.

Because bookies aren't handing out free money.

**og4667** · 12-20-10, 04:14 PM

take Mavs 1st half. Looks like Miami is a second half team. Welcome back Lyon

**lyon804** · 12-20-10, 04:16 PM

Miami -7 and ML -300. Books are "giving" Dallas in the +250-260 range.

Say you take Miami -300ML for example. Risking 900/300 On the other end you take Dallas +7 risking 550/500.

If Dallas somehow wins you lose -400, if Miami covers you lose -250, but if Miami wins a close one down the stretch you win +800 At worst you are getting 2/1 on your money with most unlikely scenario which is Dallas winning. If Miami blows them out you drop $250, which is still getting over 3/1 on your money. The good thing is you can't loose both bets

but you might actually win both.

The last time I made a bet like this it was Duke vs Butler for the National Championship game March Madness. I cleared about 2200 on that game because I had Duke ML huge and also had Butler +7 and hit both sides when Duke won by 2 I believe.

That was a 7 pt spread also.

**og4667** · 12-20-10, 04:22 PM

this game is on NBAtv. Lyon, didn't you say something about road teams/underdog covering when playing on NBAtv?

**N.O.S.** · 12-20-10, 04:24 PM

Dallas will beat Miami straight up, probably in OT.

**Stinger** · 12-20-10, 04:28 PM

**MrShrink** · 12-20-10, 04:28 PM

best play (if any) on this one, imo:

teaser parlay of DAL spread and the over.

no way is DAL gonna get beat by 11 or 12 points. WAS's defense held them to 95 points, and a bunch of that was scored in garbage time in a game that shouldn't have been close.

Way too many superior ball distributors and scorers on the floor in this one for there not to be lots of quick scoring opps. This will help the total lean towards the over.

The only concern I have for this play is that the age of DAL may be shown in the 4th against a late-game thriver like MIA. I feel confident, though, considering they are rested. I DO look for Spoelstra to exploit this, though, by pushing the tempo early. This could be a double-edged attack that leads to lots of early fast-break points for MIA and a lagging DAL team in the 4th. We all know that MIA could end up blowing them out by 15+ if this gameplan is implemented successfully.

Alright... Well, I guess i just talked myself out of my own play. Think I'm just gonna put a few units on the over and 1 on DAL su.

GL, all... Whatever happens it's gonna be fun watching this game and the CHI/MIN snow bowl tonight. That's a lock.