Nba road system 2010 - 11

[BetaB]

BOL tomorrow. BOSTON it is

[rob_nuts]

good win for denver today, tough trip for dallas i'm pretty confident that boston will come out strong!

[cricri86]

Let's have some winners today

[marku]

Interesting stuff: thank you

[JJV]

tell me about it, i had blazers +18.5 last game of my 10 pt teaser. and they lose by 19. un-f'in-believable

That half a point burns the most when you lose.

[bulichme]

ON3 who all do you have on your "anti" list now? I saw the other day you mentioned it when SA played and it worked out good that day. What filters put a team on that list?

[knugen]

Any play tonight?

[jas19illini]

Download the BetBud app. It'll send you notifications of how the games you bet on are doing as well as keep track of your wins and losses.

That app is awesome! Big thanks for the recommendation.

[julio_cat]

Any play tonight?

Sticking with the system, as is, no play tonight.
Next play on Friday: Boston 1st half. C bet

[xxx]

gl tonight

-playr101

playr101 check you mail

[cricri86]

no bet for me today. GL everybody

[JR007]

Like your analysis of line movement no coin

[isg2010]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]NBA ROAD SYTEM
HALVES / ATS
FEB 2011

POR @ DEN (2/2), IND (2/4), CLE (2/5) - WIN [B]

DAL @ NY (2/2), BOS (2/4), CHA (2/5) - [C] bet

CHI @ POR (2/7), UT (2/9), NO (2/12)

DAL @ SAC (2/9), DEN (2/10), HOU (2/12)

POR @ TOR (2/11), DET (2/13), MN (2/14)

SA @ WAS (2/12), NJ (2/14), CHI (2/17)

PHI @ MN (2/12), MEM (2/15), HOU (2/16)

DEN @ MEM (2/13), HOU (2/14), MIL (2/16)

MIA @ BOS (2/13), IND (2/15), TOR (2/16)

LAL @ ORL (2/13), CHA (2/14), CLE (2/16)

LAC @ OKC (2/22), NO (2/23), LAL (2/25)###

UT @ DAL (2/23), IND (2/25), DET (2/26)

SAC @ ORL (2/23), CHA (2/25), MEM (2/26)

BOS @ DEN (2/24), LAC (2/26), UT (2/28)

NY @ CLE (2/25), MIA (2/27), ORL (3/1)###

ATL @ GS (2/25), POR (2/27), DEN (2/28)

DAL @ WAS (2/26), TOR (2/27) PHI (3/1)

### optional series . These series could be
a no play.[/COLOR]

[Wallco99]

What the hell, I'm in! Though it seems we are betting against most of our JM bets, at least on one half of them. But maybe that is a good thing.

[Wallco99]

Just one question, how many of those optional plays won on 3rd or 4th bet?

[playr101]

come on Boston

-playr101

[Wallco99]

Has anyone ever tested to see how playing M/L on half favorites would have done versus laying points, do many more series end early, or is it total devastation?

[PLAYER7000]

What happened to the Nicks/Celtics game? Was it canceled?

[PLAYER7000]

Nevermind,I'm an idiot!!!!!!

[SOLAMAN]

LOOKING AT TONIGHT'S GAME : DAL @ BOS (1h /3/6) or (2h/4/6)

Bos had 10 home games in the month of Jan and covered at least one half 7 of 10 games and 1 of the 3 with no cover there was a push. Athough I prefer better numbers, it seems Bos usually brings its A game against better teams.

Dal had a rough month of Jan as a road team but many of those games were without Mr. Dirk. It seems Dal is back in form.

Dal has proven over the years to be a road warrior. They pushed one series to the 5th play last year and this year they covered every half of a 3 game road trip (dec 20 - 27) as a road team but this series was non-qualifying as explained in a previous post.

Note: At this point in time last season, we had 6 series to go at least 5 plays and 2 of the 6 went to the 6th play. This season we have NO SERIES to go this deep but I expect it to happen before the season is over.

GOOD LUCK TONIGHT!!!

[Wallco99]

I mentioned on a previous post that I would like to discuss an optional limited progression method.

LIMITED BETTING PROGRESSION:

The idea is to reduce risk and stress with the potential to win more units.

Limited betting progression #1 (based -110)

#1...1st half game 1...... risk 1.1 to win 1.0 unit
#2...2nd half game 1......risk 2.3 to win 2.1 units (net 1.0 unit)
#3...1st half game 2.......risk 4.85 to win 4.41 units (net 1.0 unit)
(if no cover after the first 3 plays / win 2 of the next 3 plays)
#4..2nd half game 2.......risk 6.6 to win 6.0 units
#5..1st half game 3.......risk 8.8 to win 8.0 units
#6..2nd half game 3......risk 13.2 to win 12.0 units

*** covering the 4th & 5th plays (net 5.75 units)
***covering the 4th & 6th plays (net 1.0 units)
***covering the 5th & 6th plays (net 5.15 units)


Comments: If no cover is made thru 6 plays, your loss of units is reduced more than half compared to the standard betting progression method. If a cover is made on the 4th play, you can stop with a 2.25 unit loss or continue with the progression and profit by covering one of the next 2 plays. Last season 119 series out of 126 were completed by the 4th play of the series for 95%.

Question on this Solo, If I win my bet #4, and I am only down 2.25 units, why wouldn't I just put 3.5 units on bet 5, and accept the 1 unit win which was the target from the start? Why are we all of a sudden trying to win 5.75 units? If I lose the D bet, I understand for recovery reasons we need to up bet 5, but not if bet 4 wins in this optional bet style. And as I asked earlier, did you ever look into playing M/L on half favorites. Would it win series quicker, or would we still have losses that kill our bankroll?

[SOLAMAN]

Question on this Solo, If I win my bet #4, and I am only down 2.25 units, why wouldn't I just put 3.5 units on bet 5, and accept the 1 unit win which was the target from the start? Why are we all of a sudden trying to win 5.75 units? If I lose the D bet, I understand for recovery reasons we need to up bet 5, but not if bet 4 wins in this optional bet style. And as I asked earlier, did you ever look into playing M/L on half favorites. Would it win series quicker, or would we still have losses that kill our bankroll?

This limited progression is flexible. There could be many different versions of this. Its only an idea to reduce risk. If I was using this limited progression and covered on the 4th play, I would take the 2.25 unit loss. This would give you 74.50 units for the season instead of 79 units with the standard progression method but with much less risk.

Others are using the labby method, but when you are hitting around 70% on the first play any method will work.

I have not researched the ML but several years back I did research totals but the spread proved to be the best.

[jas19illini]

Question on this Solo, If I win my bet #4, and I am only down 2.25 units, why wouldn't I just put 3.5 units on bet 5, and accept the 1 unit win which was the target from the start? Why are we all of a sudden trying to win 5.75 units? If I lose the D bet, I understand for recovery reasons we need to up bet 5, but not if bet 4 wins in this optional bet style. And as I asked earlier, did you ever look into playing M/L on half favorites. Would it win series quicker, or would we still have losses that kill our bankroll?

Both of my books you cant bet ML for halves.

[oklahoma]

Both of my books you cant bet ML for halves.

you can bet ML halves at pinnacle. a pretty major book.
im not sure how successful those bets would be considering the system isnt necessarily that the road team wont win the first half just that it wont cover by what the bookmakers expect. and since the bets can get very large it wont help if we were betting odds of -160 or -180 as opposed to the -105, -110 we are now.

[jas19illini]

you can bet ML halves at pinnacle. a pretty major book.
im not sure how successful those bets would be considering the system isnt necessarily that the road team wont win the first half just that it wont cover by what the bookmakers expect. and since the bets can get very large it wont help if we were betting odds of -160 or -180 as opposed to the -105, -110 we are now.

Im in the US, no pinny for me. Lol.

[JW Cash]

Im in the US, no pinny for me. Lol.

God....I miss Pinnacle AND Neteller.........

[Newbie1825]

come on Boston you can doooo IT!

[woodyman]

looks like we have a 2nd half bet!

[Newbie1825]

looks like we have a 2nd half bet!

Yup I hope we have a good spread going in

[woodyman]

-6.5... hmm

[woodyman]

got -6 at pinny

[JJV]

-6.5... hmm

Just like that denver play the other day

[playr101]

-6 2h...

-playr101

[COYLO]

what u guy's think. anyone watching it

[woodyman]

Dallas are a good side but i see the Celts dominating the 2nd half and winning by 7.

Just got to hope Dallas dont keep up the high % shooting. 6/8 3's hurt!