Nba road system 2010 - 11

[SOLAMAN]

NBA ROAD SYSTEM .... HALVES/ATS ....2010 -11

This will be my 8th year with the nba road system ... halves/ats. The record for the previous 7 seasons .....734 series wins and 6 losses.

2009-10......125 series wins and 1 loss
2008- 09 ... 127 series wins and 1 loss
2007- 08 ... 90 series wins and 2 losses
2006- 07... 83 series wins and 1 loss
2005- 06 ... 108 series wins and 1 loss
2004- 05 ... 99 series wins and 0 loss
2003- 04 ... 102 series wins and 0 loss

Review of the system: We are betting that a road team can not cover every half of the last 3 games of a road trip and you must commit 150 to 200 units and be willing to put up nearly half on any one play and if you are not willing to risk it then forget it.

I have mentioned several times in the past that this type of wagering is not for everyone and you need the right mindset to do this. I have said in jest that you do not have to be insane to do this but it could help!!!

THE NEXT POST: EXPLANATION REVISTED FOR 2010 - 2011

[SOLAMAN]

NBA ROAD SYSTEM .... HALVES / ATS
(EXPLANATION REVISTED FOR 2010 - 11)

THE PLAN: The idea of the nba road system (halves/ats) is to play against a road team that is out of its comfort zone and with the fatigue factor to consider, so we play up to the last 6 halves of a 3 or more games road trip. Stop the series when a cover is made by the home team. Find your best line for the first half and if the first half loses bet at half-time for the 2nd half.Betting progression: To win one unit... double bet plus juice until it covers. See below for more details.

RULES FOR THE ROAD SYSTEM WITH HALVES (ATS)

1. Bet against the road team (ats) on a road trip of three or more games.
2. Play up to the LAST 3 games of a road series until a cover is made. Of course on a 3 game road trip it would all 3 games.
3. Find your best line for the first half and if it does not cover place your bet at half-time for the second half for the second play of the series. If there is still a no cover after two plays, your third play would be the first half of the second game of the series and etc.
4.Betting progression: the goal is to win one unit. (see below for more details)
5. Any series that starts before the christmas break must conclude by dec. 22 or it is a no play.
6. Series games must be 3 games or less between games or the series is a no play.
7. NO PLAYS THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF THE SEASON.
8. Optional: If a home team is favored by 5 points or more for the first half of game one, the series is eliminated.
9. The main problem with this system: You must be available to make half-time wagers.

* 6 game series ... start with the 4th game of the series
* 5 game series ... start with the 3rd game of the series
* 4 game series ... start with the 2nd game of the series
* 3 game series ... start with the 1st game of the series

BETTING PROGRESSION TO WIN ONE UNIT (based on -110)

First play .......... risk 1.1 to win 1.0
Second play .... risk 2.3 to win 2.1
Third play ......... risk 4.85 to win 4.41
Fourth play ...... risk 10.2 to win 9.26
Fifth play .......... risk 21.4 to win 19.46
Sixth play ......... ????????

EXAMPLE SERIES: ATL @ LAC, GS, PHO

1st play: atl @ lac (1st half) risk 1.1 to win 1.0 ........ results - loss
2nd play: atl @ lac (2nd half) risk 2.3 to win 2.1 ...... results - loss
3rd play: atl @ gs (1st half) risk 4.85 to win 4.41 .... results - win

The series ends with a cover on the 3rd play for 1 unit won.

Comments: I will post the schedule for Nov in a few days.

[EasyHustlin]

A 6 game chase loss is worth approx. 45+21+10+5+2+1= 84 units. If you were betting 1 unit as just 1% of your bankroll, that's 84% of your stash on a loss. But like you said, it's not for everyone. Good luck!

[jasDace]

SOLAMAN, just curious if you had noticed any similarities in the losses for all the years?

[SOLAMAN]

A 6 game chase loss is worth approx. 45+21+10+5+2+1= 84 units. If you were betting 1 unit as just 1% of your bankroll, that's 84% of your stash on a loss. But like you said, it's not for everyone. Good luck!

Prior to the start of the season, I will post an alternate limited betting progression method that is not as stressful and can reduced the risk drastically. Your input is welcomed.

[RoyalBrown]

Looking forward to the Nov plays.

[SOLAMAN]

SOLAMAN, just curious if you had noticed any similarities in the losses for all the years?

The 2 losses over the last 2 seasons did have something in common.

THE OPTIONAL PLAY / RULE #8
Looking at the 2 losses over last 2 seasons.........

In both series the line failed to adjust to the improved play of a below average road team.

THE PLAN: Eliminate all series where the home team is favored by 5 points or more for the 1st half of the 1st game since most covers are made by the second half of game 1 of the series.. This will cost us several series wins but it would also eliminate these type of series where the line failed to adjust on the improved play of a below average road team.

Results if applied the last 2 seasons.................

RESULTS:
2008 - 09.... 23 series would be eliminated which would include several wins but also the one loss. The adjusted record would be 105 - 0 and the total units won would have more than doubled.

2009 - 10... 30 series would be eliminated and the adjusted record would be 95 - 0 for last season.

The total record by making this adjustment over the last 2 seasons would be 200 series wins and 0 losses.

Comments: This is move is optional.

[SOLAMAN]

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sac (11/10)

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)

gs @ ny (11/10), chi (11/11), mil (11/13)

ut @ orl (11/10), atl (11/12), cha (11/13)

hou @ wa (11/10), ind (11/12), ny (11/14)

phi @ dal (11/12), sa (11/13), cle (11/16)

det @ lac (11/12), sac (11/14), gs (11/15)

por @ okc (11/12), no (11/13), mem (11/16)

tor @ mia (11/13), wa (11/16), phi (11/17)

lal @ mil (11/16), det (11/17), mn (11/19)

nj @ ut (11/17), sac (11/19), den (11/20)

ny @ sac (11/17), gs (11/19), lac (11/20)

pho @ orl (11/18), cha (11/20), hou (11/22)

cle @ no (11/19), sa (11/20), ind (11/23)

no @ lac (11/22), ut (11/24), por (11/26)

phi @ wa (11/23), tor (11/24), mia (11/26)

chi @ pho (11/24), den (11/26), sac (11/27)

gs @ hou (11/24), mem (11/26), mn (11/27)

sa @ no (11/28), gs (11/30), lac (12/1)

por @ phi (11/30), bos (12/1)wa (12/3)

ind @ sac (11/30), ut (12/1), pho (12/3)

[acestreet]

yeah i am looking forward to all your plays.

[lapi7]

The 2 losses over the last 2 seasons did have something in common.

THE OPTIONAL PLAY / RULE #8
Looking at the 2 losses over last 2 seasons.........

In both series the line failed to adjust to the improved play of a below average road team.

THE PLAN: Eliminate all series where the home team is favored by 5 points or more for the 1st half of the 1st game since most covers are made by the second half of game 1 of the series.. This will cost us several series wins but it would also eliminate these type of series where the line failed to adjust on the improved play of a below average road team.

Results if applied the last 2 seasons.................

This is a good start Solaman. I'm really looking forward to the MM element that can be applied to reduce losses. Perhaps a Labouchere or Kelly Criteria. I'm going to look back over the lost series to see if I can find a common element or more filters that can be applied.

I'm not certain that only 2 losses encountered over the last two years provide enough of a database to eliminate the series' that have 1st half 5 point home favorites. I noticed that in 07 there were 2 losses, in 06 there was one loss and in 05 there was one loss. Have you checked back into the archives to determine whether or not these losses started with 1st half -5 home favorites or not? Please let us know about that one.

Solaman, if you don't have the 1st and second half lines for 07, 06 & 05 years please post the dates and 3 game series for those years as I believe that I do have those records and I can see if we can find a common denominator here.

Other ideas are welcome too.

[SOLAMAN]

LAPI7

I mentioned that something was common with the last 2 losses but I think going back more than 2 years would be useless because the nba has changed so much plus I have made adjustments to the system over the years.

[SOLAMAN]

I mentioned on a previous post that I would like to discuss an optional limited progression method.

LIMITED BETTING PROGRESSION:

The idea is to reduce risk and stress with the potential to win more units.

Limited betting progression #1 (based -110)

#1...1st half game 1...... risk 1.1 to win 1.0 unit
#2...2nd half game 1......risk 2.3 to win 2.1 units (net 1.0 unit)
#3...1st half game 2.......risk 4.85 to win 4.41 units (net 1.0 unit)
(if no cover after the first 3 plays / win 2 of the next 3 plays)
#4..2nd half game 2.......risk 6.6 to win 6.0 units
#5..1st half game 3.......risk 8.8 to win 8.0 units
#6..2nd half game 3......risk 13.2 to win 12.0 units

*** covering the 4th & 5th plays (net 5.75 units)
***covering the 4th & 6th plays (net 1.0 units)
***covering the 5th & 6th plays (net 5.15 units)


Comments: If no cover is made thru 6 plays, your loss of units is reduced more than half compared to the standard betting progression method. If a cover is made on the 4th play, you can stop with a 2.25 unit loss or continue with the progression and profit by covering one of the next 2 plays. Last season 119 series out of 126 were completed by the 4th play of the series for 95%.

[monkeyking]

Do you have the stats for how often you had to make a 4th, 5th, and 6th bet? This would determine how much money you would potentially lose by betting a limited progression.

[thebestthereis]

i will say it again insane people give their money to so called professional money managers on wall street without a fukkking clue of what is going to happen; here you know where you stand and the odds are much better. good luck!

[demens]

Am I understanding this correctly.

A 6 game chase loss is worth approx. 45+21+10+5+2+1= 84 units.

So 1 win = 1 unit, 1 loss = -84units?

2009-10......125 series wins and 1 loss
2008- 09 ... 127 series wins and 1 loss
2007- 08 ... 90 series wins and 2 losses
2006- 07... 83 series wins and 1 loss
2005- 06 ... 108 series wins and 1 loss
2004- 05 ... 99 series wins and 0 loss
2003- 04 ... 102 series wins and 0 loss

So it 08 you took a pretty big hit with those 2 loses? in 07 too?

[SOLAMAN]

Schedule correction (first series) lac @ sa (11/10)

[demens]

Any chance you'd answer my question?

[SOLAMAN]

am i understanding this correctly.


So 1 win = 1 unit, 1 loss = -84units?



So it 08 you took a pretty big hit with those 2 loses? In 07 too?

demens....

The 2007-08 season had 2 losses but both losses were 5 play losses. The season was still profitable but it was only a few units.

The 2 losses:
1. Nov 7 2007 ... No @ por
2. Jan 5 2008 ....sac @ chi

[doubledime]

Looking forward to another good year. If it's not too much trouble, do you have the W/L record if you only chased 3 quarters with your new filters? Thanks again for your hard work.

[SOLAMAN]

Looking forward to another good year. If it's not too much trouble, do you have the W/L record if you only chased 3 quarters with your new filters? Thanks again for your hard work.

Last season 110 out of 126 were covered by the 3rd play. The only loss was a 5 play loss by one/half point. There was a push in the series making it a 5 play loss.

[demens]

Last season 110 out of 126 were covered by the 3rd play. The only loss was a 5 play loss by one/half point. There was a push in the series making it a 5 play loss.

Please excuse if my questions are silly just trying to make sure i understand everything. I like this system as its the only one that makes sense to me logically.

Anyway. playing just 3 would be a loss correct? Like before 1 win = 1 unit, 1 loss just playing 3 would be = 8 units? So 16 loses x 8 = 128 lost units vs 110 wins. Am i right?

You said 119 made it by the 4th play. 4th play loss = 14. 125 lost vs 119 won, also not good?

[SOLAMAN]

Please excuse if my questions are silly just trying to make sure i understand everything. I like this system as its the only one that makes sense to me logically.

Anyway. playing just 3 would be a loss correct? Like before 1 win = 1 unit, 1 loss just playing 3 would be = 8 units? So 16 loses x 8 = 128 lost units vs 110 wins. Am i right?

You said 119 made it by the 4th play. 4th play loss = 14. 125 lost vs 119 won, also not good?

demens...

You are correct if you stop the series at the end of the 3rd play, the season would have lost units. Ten to fifteen percent of the series will go past the 3rd play. This is the reason that I mentioned in the first post of this thread that this type of wagering is not for everyone.

[SOLAMAN]

The nba road system / halves / ats starts tomorrow (nov 6) with 2 series...

#1 LAC @ UT (FIRST HALF WITH UT TO COVER) If UT does not cover, your 2nd play of the series is UT to cover the 2nd half.

#2 DEN @ DAL...

SET-UP... THE FIRST 2 POSTS OF THIS THREAD EXPLAINS THIS SYSTEM PLUS I HAVE FURNISHED THE SCHEDULE FOR NOVEMBER, other months to follow.

VERIFICATION OF LINES: We will use vegas insider ... line movement ... offshore. The best closing line from the list of offshore books listed for the first half and the opening line for the second half. Although at times my actual line may differ, this is done to prevent any accusations of false lines.

IMPORTANT: REVIEW THIS THREAD CAREFULLY BECAUSE THIS TYPE OF WAGERING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE!

[SOLAMAN]

This season I added rule #8 but it is OPTIONAL (see post #2). The first game on the schedule could qualify for this option, the decision is yours. My updates will show it both ways.

[himeshforex]

SOLOMAN .

one major question i have for you is what abt betting limits in HALVES in NBA. suppose we are facing a situation where we are chasing for a 6th game , we are putting in line approx 80+ units, so will our bookie accept this amt of wager when we need it to be played ??

had foolowed ur thread at the rx forum for a while last year !!

[PockyStick]

if there is a push in the middle of a series, do we just repeat the same amount for the next half?

[SOLAMAN]

if there is a push in the middle of a series, do we just repeat the same amount for the next half?

YES!

[SOLAMAN]

SOLOMAN .

one major question i have for you is what abt betting limits in HALVES in NBA. suppose we are facing a situation where we are chasing for a 6th game , we are putting in line approx 80+ units, so will our bookie accept this amt of wager when we need it to be played ??

had foolowed ur thread at the rx forum for a while last year !!

It depends on your book and the size of your unit. This one of the reasons that I recommend multiple books.

[SOLAMAN]

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sac (11/10).... WIN (2/6) (OPTIONAL)

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)....PENDING

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)

LINE VERIFICATION: VEGAS INSIDER / LINE MOVEMENT / OFFSHORE

[SOLAMAN]

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sa (11/10).... WIN (2/6) (OPTIONAL)

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)....PENDING

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)...WIN (1/6)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)

[SOLAMAN]

NBA ROAD SYSTEM
HALVES / ATS
NOV 2010

LAC @ UT(11/6), NO (11/9), SA (11/10)..................WIN (2/6) optional

DEN @ DAL(11/6), CHI (11/8), IND (11/9)...............WIN (3/6)

MN @ HOU (11/7), LAL (11/9), SAC (11/10)...........WIN (1/6)

BOS @ DAL (11/8), MIA (11/11), MEM (11/13).......WIN (1/6)

GS @ NY (11/10), CHI (11/11), MIL (11/13)

UT @ ORL (11/10), ATL (11/12), CHA (11/13)

HOU @ WA (11/10), IND (11/12), NY (11/14)

[SOLAMAN]

NBA ROAD SYSTEM
HALVES / ATS
NOV 2010

LAC @ UT(11/6), NO (11/9), SA (11/10)..................WIN (2/6) **

DEN @ DAL(11/6), CHI (11/8), IND (11/9)...............WIN (3/6)

MN @ HOU (11/7), LAL (11/9), SAC (11/10)...........WIN (1/6)

BOS @ DAL (11/8), MIA (11/11), MEM (11/13).......WIN (1/6)

GS @ NY (11/10), CHI (11/11), MIL (11/13)..........PENDING

UT @ ORL (11/10), ATL (11/12), CHA (11/13)........WIN (1/6)**

HOU @ WA (11/10), IND (11/12), NY (11/14).........WIN (1/6)

** (optional)

[SOLAMAN]

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sa (11/10)..................win (2/6) **

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)................win (3/6)

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)..............win (1/6)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)..........win (1/6)

gs @ ny (11/10), chi (11/11), mil (11/13)..............win (3/6)

ut @ orl (11/10), atl (11/12), cha (11/13).............win (1/6)**

hou @ wa (11/10), ind (11/12), ny (11/14)............win (1/6)

phi @ dal (11/12), sa (11/13), cle (11/16)

det @ lac (11/12), sac (11/14), gs (11/15)

por @ okc (11/12), no (11/13), mem (11/16)

tor @ mia (11/13), wa (11/16), phi (11/17)

** optional

[SOLAMAN]

NBA ROAD SYSTEM
HALVES / ATS
NOV 2010

LAC @ UT(11/6), NO (11/9), SA (11/10)..................WIN (2/6) **

DEN @ DAL(11/6), CHI (11/8), IND (11/9)................WIN (3/6)

MN @ HOU (11/7), LAL (11/9), SAC (11/10).............WIN (1/6)

BOS @ DAL (11/8), MIA (11/11), MEM (11/13)..........WIN (1/6)

GS @ NY (11/10), CHI (11/11), MIL (11/13)..............WIN (3/6)

UT @ ORL (11/10), ATL (11/12), CHA (11/13)...........WIN (1/6)**

HOU @ WA (11/10), IND (11/12), NY (11/14)............WIN (1/6)

PHI @ DAL (11/12), SA (11/13), CLE (11/16)............WIN (1/6)

DET @ LAC (11/12), SAC (11/14), GS (11/15)...........WIN (2/6)

POR @ OKC (11/12), NO (11/13), MEM (11/16)..........WIN (2/6)

TOR @ MIA (11/13), WA (11/16), PHI (11/17)

**optional

[SOLAMAN]

Nba road system
halves / ats
nov 2010

lac @ ut(11/6), no (11/9), sa (11/10)..................win (2/6) **

den @ dal(11/6), chi (11/8), ind (11/9)...............win (3/6)

mn @ hou (11/7), lal (11/9), sac (11/10)........... win (1/6)

bos @ dal (11/8), mia (11/11), mem (11/13)......win (1/6)

gs @ ny (11/10), chi (11/11), mil (11/13)...........win (3/6)

ut @ orl (11/10), atl (11/12), cha (11/13)......... win (1/6)**

hou @ wa (11/10), ind (11/12), ny (11/14)........win (1/6)

phi @ dal (11/12), sa (11/13), cle (11/16).........win (1/6)

det @ lac (11/12), sac (11/14), gs (11/15)........win (2/6)

por @ okc (11/12), no (11/13), mem (11/16).....win (2/6)

tor @ mia (11/13), wa (11/16), phi (11/17).......win (1/6)**

lal @ mil (11/16), det (11/17), mn (11/19)

**optional