John Morrison 2010 NBA

[MakeItRain14]

Looks decent right now though, also do hockey have haft time plays?

[MakeItRain14]

Looks decent right now though, also do hockey have half time plays?

[Wallco99]

Looks decent right now though, also do hockey have half time plays?

My book offers period and end of regulation betting. I don't know about your book.

[Wallco99]

El Captain list all this V1 and v2 plays. V2 is down 100+ units right now. Def should only follow V1. I do not know the current win rate for A B or C and i know its 30-0, but you have to risk some where around 50+ units in hockey because of the juice at times. I rather just bet on C when it goes that far.

[A] : 15-8
[B] : 6-2
[C] : 2:0

I was only in for 23 victories, before I got in system was 7-0. Not sure of A,B,C on them.

[jphil]

Sorry guys, but i hope the Cavs have a pretty healthy pep talk during 1/2 time.

[jphil]

will the 27 score for the Cav's ever move again? My fingers are numb from refreshing so much.

[knugen]

Haha, i know its off topic but need to ask, wtf are Cleveland doing 31 points in almost 3 quarters

[knugen]

Haha, i know its off topic but need to ask, wtf are Cleveland doing 31 points in almost 3 quarters, and 50 points down... Hahahaha

[jphil]

that +2000 ML should have been the damn spread line.

[fotzan]

Fotzan, flat betting means that you risk the same amount of units on every bet, regardless of whether the previous bet wins or loses. You can play the ML, play the spread and buy, or not buy, points. In all cases, you risk the same amount of units. The risk is flat.

In JMD's example, he is flat betting $100 (every game) on the spread and buying 3 points every time.

hope this helps

Thanks a lot this helped a lot indeed

[fotzan]

And I think today is a new start for the JM system after a 2 day break

[Fischnasty]

i love these john morrison threads. good luck with your plays everyone.

[jphil]

not having the luxury of watching the cav's game, have they forfeited yet, & brought in their sister WNBA team? Nothin like havin losing money on a possible record breakin game.

[jphil]

why am i still reluctant to place an "L" in the result column.

[jphil]

somebody give me a B bet soon before i vacate this chair.

[J.M. Disciple]

somebody give me a B bet soon before i vacate this chair.

no worries sbp updated will have a C bet soon. (tomorrow possibly)
and original will have a B bet.

SO we should have B and C tomorrow and a couple A bets for JM for who wagers on them.

Crusher will have a C bet for Hockey and A bet for basketball. Ill post when i get back online tomorrow.

Good night everyone.

[isg2010]

Okay, so Dirk is doubtful and Butler is out which makes two of the top three scorers on the sidelines for Dallas. Dirk is also the Maverick's most efficient player. All looks good for the Nets.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA system:
01/12/2011 New Jersey @ Phoenix - V1, A bet
01/12/2011 Dallas @ Indiana - V3, A bet

V1record so far (finished series): 25-2
(A): 10-17
(B): 12-5
(C): 3-2
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10

V2 record so far (finished series): 15-1
(A): 11-5
(B): 2-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 15-16
(B): 13-3
(C): 2-1
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07

Next JM's plays:
01/15/2011 Toronto @ Washington - V2, A bet

[Nick6570]

hey krzy you think you could post the games in that same format every day?

[MacApple]

I received an email this morning stating he won his Cleveland game? How does that work?

[GGPLAYER]

I received an email this morning stating he won his Cleveland game? How does that work?

If your talking about JM that series was won. They covered the last game they played before the Lakers game. Series over. Maybe your confusing some of the other plays guys are posting here.

[mcmister]

I received an email this morning stating he won his Cleveland game? How does that work?

Cleveland covered on Sunday, January 9 yes?

Cleveland 100 Phoenix 108 on a 10 1/2 point spread.

[krzychu78]

hey krzy you think you could post the games in that same format every day?

That was my intention. I'll try to do it till the end of the season.

[J.M. Disciple]

CRUSHER for 1/12

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:
no play
(System Record: 40-3, lost last game)

Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:
Atlanta Hawks -3 over Toronto
(System Record: 45-1, won last game)

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:
Chicago -165 over Colorado
(System Record: 39-1, lost last 6 games)


His Hockey is on a C bet today. (some people are avoiding this cause he lost his last six games. Juice is at -175 cause colorado has a lot of injuries.
His NBA Pick looks good.

I think he will go 2-0 today

[MacApple]

If your talking about JM that series was won. They covered the last game they played before the Lakers game. Series over. Maybe your confusing some of the other plays guys are posting here.

Gotcha. Since I received the email this morning I figured it was from last nights game.

Thanks

[J.M. Disciple]

SBP original Sac +13.5 [B]
SBP updated Clippers +8 [C]

Crusher
ATL -3.5 [A]
Hockey chicago [C]

[J.M. Disciple]

TPS: SAC is either B or C.

on 12/17 they lost to OKC by 15 and spread was at +11 ML was +600
01/01/11 @ denver they were +10.5 but money line opened at +500 for some sites +400 for others, so im not sure if its a B or C bet. Either way you should still wager on it.

someone please confirm if its B or C please.

[cmdyrds]

^^^^^^^^i got it as a b bet.

[venture]

On the SBP bets are we supost to buy 3 points?

[Kev the Brit]

Anyway, to answer your question: you are talking about risking the same 21.41 units per series, but risking the same amount in a more profitable way. So you just calculate how to get equal profit on B and C while risking a total of 21.41 units, like this: with -183 odds, B: risk 5.59 units to WIN 3.055 units C: risk 15.82 units to WIN 8.645 units (8.645 = the 5.59 lost on A, plus the 3.055 you could have won on A) total series risk = 21.41 units, win if series won = 3.055 units with these odds, must win 7/8 series, or 87.5% of all series which go to B, to break even. This way a loss costs you the same amount, but a win = 3 x what you would win if you played from A. Hence for this way to be equally/more profitable, you only need 1 in every 3 series to make it to B. And I assure you, over a season, A bets will never hit equal to or more than 66.67% (2 in 3 winning) hope this helps

Firstly, many thanks to Wilba for providing the answer to my question.

As we know the concept of betting on only B/C is based on the A bet statistically winning only 61% of the time. So far this season, the A bet has won approx only 50% of the time (accoring to krzychu's stats; which broady agree with my own), which is great news for the B/C bettors. This also means that the A bet wins are below the statistical average. The laws of stats require the A bet winning rate to increase to return to the established average. I don't believe the winning rate will increase to 75%, which is what would be required to bring it in line this season, but I do believe it will increase in the remaining games. Those of us who have been playing B/C throughout this season so far, require only another 20 A bets to lose in order to get a better return and I'm certain they will achieve the aim.

IMHO, those of us who have been playing the A Bets should now seriously consider the stats. In order for the A Bet strategy (win 1 Unit at -183) to equal the B/C Bet strategy (win 3 Units at -183), the A bets must win 2 from every 3 games for the rest of the season, and beyond (forever, in fact). Is this realistic? 67% strike rate? I don't think so.

I'm now moving to the B/C betting strategy, playing to win 3 Units on the B bet. With only 86 series left this season, I need only 29 B bets to match the A/B/C strategy, regardless of series success rates.

Regards

Kev the Converted

[Kev the Brit]

TPS: SAC is either B or C. on 12/17 they lost to OKC by 15 and spread was at +11 ML was +600 01/01/11 @ denver they were +10.5 but money line opened at +500 for some sites +400 for others, so im not sure if its a B or C bet. Either way you should still wager on it. someone please confirm if its B or C please.

JJ is an honest guy . Its a C Bet

Kev

[El_Pateaux]

Anyone have any thoughts on Dallas today in V3?

[Wilba]

Firstly, many thanks to Wilba for providing the answer to my question.

I'm now moving to the B/C betting strategy, playing to win 3 Units on the B bet. With only 86 series left this season, I need only 29 B bets to match the A/B/C strategy, regardless of series success rates.

Regards

Kev the Converted

Glad to hear it mate. I'm in this to try and help me and everyone else to make more money. Good luck with it, there may be a short term A bet win % increase coming up over next weeks, due to the 50% WR so far this season, which will not hold up - the A bets will improve.

But I guarantee you that long term you will make more money doing B/C. BOL

[Wilba]

JJ is an honest guy . Its a C Bet

Kev

I can confirm the 'official' play is a C bet. Sac looking incredibly attractive to me tonight, I'm gonna play them hard. I've watched a couple of their recent games, esp vs Denver, and I believe they are a lot better than their W/L record would suggest.

This one is as close to a as any bet ever is IMO.

NHL crusher play also.

GL today everyone, lets make some cha ching!

[PanamaKid]

Why is Dallas only at +1 against Indiana, seems crazy to me!