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Just to be sure I understand:
I will play all 3 versions, because that has the best profit turnout(?), but are you saying to skip bet A for all system bets and play 3 units on B for the system? Or was that only for the flat betting strategy you posted earlier?
Also, as someone who has probably played all 3 versions since the seasons started, are you in the red or have you been profiting? As I stated earlier I have only been using version 1 and the Utah loss put me in the red
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Thank you for your help it is greatly appreciated!!Comment -
Spurs with a nice win tonight to start getting my V3 labby line down after Dallas lost 3 in a row at -110 odds
Thank you Antonio...Comment -
01/25/2011 Charlotte @ Sacramento - V1, A bet
01/25/2011 Denver @ Washington - V1, A betComment -
Yes Skip A bets. Betting to win 3 units on B and cover your losses with C. I am not talking about my flat betting strategy. I do not do flat betting cause I have not gotten enough back tested research on it. However, if I were to do it, then it would of shown a nice profit this year so far. Once again though its a small sample.Just to be sure I understand:
I will play all 3 versions, because that has the best profit turnout(?), but are you saying to skip bet A for all system bets and play 3 units on B for the system? Or was that only for the flat betting strategy you posted earlier?
Also, as someone who has probably played all 3 versions since the seasons started, are you in the red or have you been profiting? As I stated earlier I have only been using version 1 and the Utah loss put me in the red.
Thank you for your help it is greatly appreciated!!
For Example. If you have a $1,000 bankroll a unit size would be $10. Wilba a "pro" pretty much suggest that You keep that same unit size the whole season. So tonight was a "B bet" on the spurs. Which means if you had a $1,000 bankroll you would bet to win $30 on the spurs after buying 3pts. It would be like $50 to win $30 or something along those lines. THen cover your losses with a C wager if the B bet losses.
I also Suggest you follow Sports betting professor. His picks are posted Daily under service plays. Its another 3 game progression with out buying points.
Also V1-v3 if you are betting just B and C to win 3 units. Then we are making a nice profit so far this year. I do not know how each system is doing in particular, but I know im in the Green a decent amount.
If you ever want to increase your unit size you could, but I would wait until your bankroll doubles from $1k to $2k or atleast by 50% to $1,500 depending on whatever your bankroll is. Do not worry about player injuries either cause the sports betting sites already take that into account. Toronto is a prime example of that tonight. THey have a lot of injuries on their team, yet SBP had his C bet on Toronto at +5 and they only lost by 2. There for ignore the player injury filter.
You do not need to spend too much time researching. We or I will post the B or C plays on here when they come up. I try to post the SBP plays on here daily around noon. SBP has two systems.
So I suggest you follow SBP orginal and SBP updated as well as john morrison only betting B and C for JM and A B C for SBP.
Solamon has a great system also up like 50 or 60 units this year already. Something you might want to look into if you have the time of day to do it. It takes daily observation though. Can't just place a bet in the morning and come back at night to check and see if you won because the game is based on 1st half / 2nd half.
Best of Luck to you Bro.Comment -
@ J.M. Disciple
Okay, so this is what I will be doing for the rest of the season, and please correct me if anything I say is incorrect.
- I will play all versions of the system
- I will not place any A bets on the system. Instead, I will place 3 units on the B bet and if the B bet loses, recover my B bet on C. (Plus profit or only recovery? Sorry if that sounds like a dumb question, just want everything to be right.)
- I will use a small % of my bankroll and keep the same stakes throughout the season.
- If I choose to use SBP as well, I will use the entire progression of A, B, and C.
Again, if any of this is wrong, please point it out to me. Also I would like to know as I stated earlier if I recover or recover + profit on my C wager. And yes, Solaman's system is amazing. I'm afraid to start so late in the season though, a loss from his system would put me red because I don't have any of the past wins to cushion it. I will probably give that a go as well though.
So, we have 2 A bets today, Denver and Charlotte. If what I have gathered is correct, We WILL NOT place these bets. This brings up one final question though, what if the series is won on A level? Do we still make the B bet? Or let it go?
J.M. Disc, Thank you for reading my posts and for all your responses, it is people like you that make this forum the great place it is. I appreciate your time in answering my questions.
Thanks!Comment -
This season is taking care of. We need last seasons.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/teams.html
shows all the past results of the teams and the spreads for last season. Maybe we can divide up the work and you take east and ill take west and we can figure it out. Just have to click on a team go to past results and look for 3 game road trips. Just list the 1st road game 2nd road game and 3rd road game for each team. Remember to buy 3pts.
Maybe ill start working on this tomorrow.
Tell you what... you take the upper half for the east coast and ill take bottom half for the west coast. We will get this done fast.
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404065.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403995.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404316.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403993.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404031.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404119.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404135.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403977.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404029.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team403975.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404047.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404137.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404049.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404101.html
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404302.html These will be my teams, you take the rest.
If someone else wants to help out with the research I would appreciate it.
We are testing how flat betting works for 3 game road trips for last season. Remember its flat betting not progression! Also remember buying 3pts with the flat betting. I'll post what I have tomorrow.
Have a good night everyone.Comment -
So i Just did the results for the south west if you were flat betting last season on 3 game road trips.
DENVER
1ST ROAD GAME 2ND ROAD GAME 3RD ROAD GAME
4-1 3-2 2-3
Minnesota
1ST ROAD GAME 2ND ROAD GAME 3RD ROAD GAME
2-3 2-3 3-2
THUNDER
1ST ROAD GAME 2ND ROAD GAME 3RD ROAD GAME
4-3 6-1 6-1
PORTLAND
1ST ROAD GAME 2ND ROAD GAME 3RD ROAD GAME
3-3 6-0 6-0
UTAH
1ST ROAD GAME 2ND ROAD GAME 3RD ROAD GAME
4-2 3-3 5-1
Brings the total to:
1st road game after buying 3pts: 17 wins 12 losses
2nd road game: 20 wins 9 losses
3rd road game: 22 wins 8 losses
Total wins 59 wins 29 losses
with Roughly $100 to win $58
you get $58 x 59 = $3,422 in wins minus 29 loss x $100 = $2900 so $522 profit in the North west
If you only bet on the 2nd and 3rd road games once again only flat betting
the results would be:
42 wins 17 losses
42x 58 = $2436 minus 1700 = $736 profit.
I will do the pacific and southwest tomorrow.
Someone please do the Atlantic, central, and southeast.
Its really easy to do btw.
Remember this is buying 3pts. If we can show the same 7 unit profit I.E 1 unit at risk = $100 and profit of 700 = 7 unit profit. if we could do that for all 6 divisions thats a nice 42 unit profit for the season just flat betting.Comment -
You should play to win the 3 units with the C Bet.Originally posted by J.M. Disciple: Yes Skip A bets. Betting to win 3 units on B and cover your losses with C.
I don't understand why JMD only bets to recover the lost stake on the B Bet. If you do that, you are basing your whole strategy on the B Bets producing the only profit from a 3 game series and the system math gets skewed. However, see my final paragraph.
The principle of this modified money management concept is that when you bet on A/B/C to win 1 unit you risk losing 20 Units (approx) whenever you get to the C Bet (A Bet stake of 1.82 units, B bet stake of 5.13 units and C bet stake of 14.45 units). The arithmetic will tell you that you can miss out the A Bet and bet to win 3 units with the B and C bets (which are more reliable statistically) and you still risk the same amount (per series) when you get to the C Bet.
If the A bet wins, we do not bet on the next game in that series.
Betting to win 3 units on the B and C bets covers the "lost" units on the winning A Bets. Therefore, provided that 1 out of every 3 A Bets loses, the B/C system is the same value for money. The good thing is that in the long term, the A bets do not win 2 from 3, so this makes the B/C system better value for money. Note, I do not say, "more profitable", because both the A/B/C and the B/C systems are subject to the same risk of the C bet losing, whenever it comes up. Having said that, although we have experienced 5 C Bet failures this season, from 83 series (approx 17 units loss), which is a loss on the A/B/C system, the success rate of the B Bets alone this season has more than covered the 17 units lost by the A/B/C system. Its for this particular reason that I believe JMD is putting all his trust in the B bets to make his profit, but the B bet success rate (73%) this season is better than the "advertised" statistical rate of 70%.
hope this helps
Regards
KevComment -
TPS today is the cavs. good luck. this team could lose by 50.
on another note anyone still playing utah?Comment -
Wow JMD you backtest really fast...30 mins lol. Good work though. I know this is a little off topic but there are some smart individuals in here....notice I said some. I have been backtesting some NCAAB stuff and came across something I don't understand in line movements. Look at the link. Can someone explain why the dates change and the line moves so abrubtly? Thanks for any help.
This is from SBR odds. I am using them because they show the opening lines. It shows this game opened at 7.5 but I don't even see that anywhere. I have noticed this with several games during this season. Once again any help will be greatly appreciated.Comment -
good luckComment -
ayone kind to post the jm picks for tonight
regards
mikkeComment -
Charlotte and denverComment -
I email SBP and he actually have a NCAA pick that are 14-0* system picks. does any one have it ?Comment -
Hey Masticore,
As people have already posted above me, there are 2 (A) bets tonight, however, if you look even further ahead, you'll notice that the most profitable way to play this system is to skip the A bets entirely, betting to win 3 units on B and recover + profit your 3 units on C if B fails. Don't think your losing money by skipping out on an (A) bet and it winning, because statistically you will go to a (B) bet more than you will win your (A) bets, so when you place your (B) bet to win 3 units and it covers, it is the same thing as saying you won 3 (A) bets.Comment -
@ Kev the Brit
I understand now, thank you for clearing the air for me. It makes me wonder if the statistical average that makes the B/C system more valuable has been constant for every season, or if this B/C system is only profitable this time around.
Now that I understand everything, I will be placing on B and C bets to win 3 units. Up until this point I have only played version 1 with 3 recorded losses, and it shot me down to a net loss. Good to know that playing all 3 versions to this point has been profitable. Hopefully I can pull a recovery. Thanks!!Comment -
for this yr some yrs A bet wins more so u miss out on a lot of profit but u can skip the A's and play the rest sure for this yr especially with 2 loses in v1.0 and 2 stopped series in v1.0 due to filters/injuries it is not an awesome yr to say the least so far but we still got like 34 v1.0 plays I think left to recoupComment -
[COLOR=#000000 !important]I email SBP and he actually have a NCAA pick that are 14-0* system picks. does any one have it ?[/COLOR]Comment -
thx all that have reposting the picks
thx for the advice...have read it now..and it looks good
but i have my own parameters....
I check up the games against dunkel index....and if ok there..it will be a pick..
and I do the same with a,b and c-bet
sometimes will it not be a a,b or c-bet
if any bets filters out there the serie will be shorter...and i take the loss
but it have been profitle so far...have not back test it....i'm to lazy
maybe will back test it some day....
regards
mikkeComment -
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I'm going to start following C bets for v1 PL and ML when they come as well for JM NHL. Just V1! though. V2 is garbage. When the C bets come up ill be sure to post them all on here.Comment -
@ J.M. Disciple
Wow, the V1 C bets haven't lost yet for NHL? Seems like a good strategy to flat bet any NHL C's indeed! Thanks for keeping everyone posted and thanks for all your tips and advice. You've made Morrison's system a lot easier to handle!
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Don't follow my "one-month rule" anymore. I just found out that you can lose a series on that. I backtested it over again and found a few series losses. For me, I would rather find a team that has lost a series and bet on them on their next series.
Anyway, did the scam artist explain why the Utah Jazz series wasn't a loss?Comment -
Better at (-110) than buying this season, as I have stated several times, but have been crucified needlessly for. They are basing everyrhing on previous years data versus what is actually working right now. These are the same guys that probably still listen to casette tapes. I will continue to play this way until my losses catch up, if they do, with point buying losses. At that time, I may re-evaluate. But to this point, I only have one more loss than everyone else (Dallas), so I am much further ahead. My losses are 8.25 units, the other is 18.5. Do the math.Comment -
There have only been two this season, not much action at that rate.Comment
