Sj55 2010-2011 nba picks

**kobefanatic** · 08-06-10, 11:10 PM

looking forward to reading your analysis on each team

**dume walker** · 08-06-10, 11:18 PM

BOL on this, SJ. We really respect the effort your putting into this.

**sweetjones55** · 08-06-10, 11:25 PM

Atlanta Hawks

Well this team hasn't changed much this offseason. Their starting lineup and bench (those who got minutes) was as follows this past season. Looking at their past season can probably tell you a lot about this upcoming season, no reason to think that it will be much different unless the team just starts to have locker room problems and is sick of being that 4th-6th best team in the east as they have been for a while now. I would not be at all shocked to see this team start falling apart about halfway through the season. If news starts to come out about this then you should definitely start fading them. This was a tough season for them, that 0-4 playoff loss against Orlando really hurt them. Especially since they weren't even competitive in any of those four games.

They will still struggle down low as they don't really have that great post presence to go to offensively or a person to stop the great PF/C on teams. They may not be as great at home this year ATS, I think the lines will be adjusted a little. I think the 1H bets with them will probably be a little bit more profitable especially against decent to bad teams, just a gut feeling on that.

Starters
PG Mike Bibby
SG Joe Johnson
SF Marvin Williams
PF Josh Smith
C Al Hoford

Bench
Jamal Crawford
Maurice Evans
Zaza Pachulia
Jeff Teague
Randolph Morris

The only addition they really had to the team was adding rookie SG Jordan Crawford, famous kid who dunked on LeBron James. His strengths are mostly on the offensive end. He is a good shooter and a relentless driver. As I was reading up on him I couldn't help but think that he is pretty much another Jordan Crawford, veryyy similar skilll set. He averaged a lot of points in college but also averaged about 16 shots a game. He really spends most of his energy on the offensive side of the ball and consequently his defense lacks. His defense isn't really all that good NBA wise. I don't think he will be very effective his rookie year due to the fact that his shots will be very limited. It will take time for him to develop into a role player who has to pick and choose his shots, very different for him from college where he was the main guy and always had the go to take any shot he wanted.

These are the Hawks 2009 numbers
ATS OVERALL 48-34
ATS HOME 25-16
ATS ROAD 23-18

O/U OVERALL 47-34
O/U HOME 25-16
O/U AWAY 22-18-1

Team Rankings
OFF- 10
DEF- 13
REB- 15
BENCH- 17

Quarter by Quarter
Hawks 1Q 41-32-8
Hawks 2Q 49-28-4
Hawks 3Q 53-26-2

Hawks were 40-9 if leading at halftime

Hawks were 11-17 if trailing at halftime

Hawks were 5-12 on the road if losing at halftime

Hawks were pretty much 50/50 on winning/losing games on B2B SU/ATS (they did struggle ATS later in the season)

Hawks rarelyyyy lost to below .500 teams, NY had their number and Detroit beat them twice. But other than that they dominated weaker teams.

**sweetjones55** · 08-06-10, 11:46 PM

If anyone has anything for me to add for any of the teams please let me know. The more information we have on a team, the better. If you saw any profitable angles/trends/stats/ on certain teams in the NBA this past season please post it.

**brumbies** · 08-07-10, 12:40 AM

starts to have locker rooms

Huh? What do you mean?

**sweetjones55** · 08-07-10, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by brumbies

Huh? What do you mean?

Locker room problems**** sorry about that.

**peterpan19** · 08-07-10, 08:13 AM

BOL this year

**WiseGrumpy** · 08-07-10, 10:33 AM

Can't wait for the season to start, and I'm hoping for another strong season for myself and for you SJ. Thnx for the awesome idea will check in to read everything ...

**sweetjones55** · 08-07-10, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by WiseGrumpy

Can't wait for the season to start, and I'm hoping for another strong season for myself and for you SJ. Thnx for the awesome idea will check in to read everything ...

No problem, I enjoy doing this. Your thoughts on any team would be really apreciated, you know your NBA. I'm sure we'll both have strong seasons, it's all just a matter of effort and MM. I think this site has a great collection of NBA handicappers and together with all our knowledge we should be able to absolutely kill it this season.

**WiseGrumpy** · 08-07-10, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

No problem, I enjoy doing this. Your thoughts on any team would be really apreciated, you know your NBA. I'm sure we'll both have strong seasons, it's all just a matter of effort and MM. I think this site has a great collection of NBA handicappers and together with all our knowledge we should be able to absolutely kill it this season.

Agree 100%. I can't wait for the first game, this is my #1 sport, and you are by far one of the best. I'm sure we will have a great season.

**looku** · 08-07-10, 11:26 AM

**h3da** · 08-07-10, 07:07 PM

Do you think heats will cover against celtics first game? Can't wait for your NBA picks

Going to save up my cash til then

**Baller85** · 08-07-10, 08:36 PM

Like the rest around here I greatly appreciate your input. I'm very good at betting on the NBA so your analysis will only help me become even better.

**dume walker** · 08-08-10, 12:42 AM

I've long been wanting to contribute something of value to your NBA thread, aside from just being a cheerleader and expressing my gratitude on your picks. Problem is I know relatively little about basketball, at least not to the extent you, Goat and some others do. The only sport in which I make my own wagers is college football. But I did think of a way in which I make be able to make some contribution. I'm just about done reading "Moneyball". What I plan on reading -- studying -- next is Tim Donaghy's "Personal Foul". I seem to recall he said that book includes a "blueprint" on what to look for in terms of games where referee bias might influence the ATS outcome. My plan is to synposize those elements (assuming he lays them out in a way they can be categorized) and maybe add that blueprint or modality in here as another factor that might be considered when making a pick. I tend to be a slow though thorough reader (just a few pages a day while I'm tending to my other work) so it won't be done any time real soon. Hopefully, in time for the start of the season. You may have already read the book and know what to be on the lookout for. But who knows... I might have something to add beyond, "way to go, SJ".

**WiseGrumpy** · 08-08-10, 02:46 AM

SJ wanted to talk a little about my Rockets and since the forum is dead until the start of the season, this thread is a perfect spot.
I think with the space we have money wise, the strong line-up we have now, if Yao will play, Houston will make the playoffs easily and I think can make some noise for at least a round or two.
I will even say I love the fact Bosh didn't end up on our team, with one of the best coaches of all time, such an unselfish group in hand, this team is a force.

**secret007** · 08-08-10, 03:36 AM

1st game between Celtics and Heat will be interesting. People will pound Miami for sure.

**sweetjones55** · 08-08-10, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by WiseGrumpy

SJ wanted to talk a little about my Rockets and since the forum is dead until the start of the season, this thread is a perfect spot.
I think with the space we have money wise, the strong line-up we have now, if Yao will play, Houston will make the playoffs easily and I think can make some noise for at least a round or two.
I will even say I love the fact Bosh didn't end up on our team, with one of the best coaches of all time, such an unselfish group in hand, this team is a force.

Houston will be a very good team for sure. I think they will be very good plays when they are at home playing teams that are publicly thought to be better than them (Celtics, Magic, Thunder etc).

**sweetjones55** · 08-08-10, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by h3da

Do you think heats will cover against celtics first game? Can't wait for your NBA picks

Going to save up my cash til then

Originally posted by secret007

1st game between Celtics and Heat will be interesting. People will pound Miami for sure.

I want to take a look at the preseason for both teams, get the ref stats, and then make a decision on this game. I will more than likely not have a play though.

**sweetjones55** · 08-08-10, 10:17 AM

Up for today is the Boston Celtics. I am going to get started on their info, if anyone has anything they want to contribute then be my guest.

**sweetjones55** · 08-08-10, 10:51 AM

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics made a ton of off-season moves, none of which I think will have a HUGE impact for them and their success. They were able to keep their core of coach Doc Rivers, Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins and Davis. They did lose Rasheed to retirements, Tony Allen to Free Agency, and Finley/Scalabrine (no one wants them lol). Kendrick Perkins suffered torn MCL and PCL ligaments in his right knee, he will be out to start the season and miss the whole 1st half of it. Even when he does come back it will be tough to tell how much of an impact he will have, he wasn't the most athletic/nimble player to begin with and now with this knee injury he will be even less.

The Celtics loaded up on three free agents this offseason. They signed Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, and Von Wafer. I really like the Jermaine O'neal signing to fill the void at C. He is old and washed up and can't make it through a full NBA season. Jermaine O'neal avearged 4.2 ppg in the playoffs after averaging 13.6 in the regular season. And to think JO made 23 million dollars last season

I think the Shaq signing was ok, he averaged 12 in the reg season and 11 in the playoffs. He's a pretty efficient player in only about 23mins per game shooting 50%. I like the Von Wafer pickup, he's a high % 3 point shooter and a good spark to bring off the bench. He can go off for 15-20 easily on any given night and be the difference between a cover and a blown cover. Celtics also signed rookie Avery Bradley. He had a ankle injury this summer and I don't expect him to get many minutes this year. He is very good defensively and a nice jump shooter, doesn't have much finishing/driving ability though. He's still very young at 19 and on a team like this it will be a while before he makes a real impact.

Celtics bring back off the bench Nate Robinson and Marquise Daniels. When I look at this bench, I see three guys that are very dangerous on the offensive end with these two and Wafer. Against bad defensive teams these guys could really go off. This is a nice little set of guards.

**sweetjones55** · 08-08-10, 10:53 AM

Celtics are taking me a while, just finished the additions/losses above. Will keep editing the above post and finish it today.

**sweetjones55** · 08-09-10, 05:26 PM

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics made a ton of off-season moves, none of which I think will have a HUGE impact for them and their success. They were able to keep their core of coach Doc Rivers, Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins and Davis. They did lose Rasheed to retirements, Tony Allen to Free Agency, and Finley/Scalabrine (no one wants them lol). Kendrick Perkins suffered torn MCL and PCL ligaments in his right knee, he will be out to start the season and miss the whole 1st half of it. Even when he does come back it will be tough to tell how much of an impact he will have, he wasn't the most athletic/nimble player to begin with and now with this knee injury he will be even less.

The Celtics loaded up on three free agents this offseason. They signed Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, and Von Wafer. I really don't like the Jermaine O'neal signing to fill the void at C. He is old and washed up and can't make it through a full NBA season. Jermaine O'neal avearged 4.2 ppg in the playoffs after averaging 13.6 in the regular season. And to think JO made 23 million dollars last season

I think the Shaq signing was ok, he averaged 12 in the reg season and 11 in the playoffs. He's a pretty efficient player in only about 23mins per game shooting 50%. I like the Von Wafer pickup, he's a high % 3 point shooter and a good spark to bring off the bench. He can go off for 15-20 easily on any given night and be the difference between a cover and a blown cover. Celtics also signed rookie Avery Bradley. He had a ankle injury this summer and I don't expect him to get many minutes this year. He is very good defensively and a nice jump shooter, doesn't have much finishing/driving ability though. He's still very young at 19 and on a team like this it will be a while before he makes a real impact.

Celtics bring back off the bench Nate Robinson and Marquise Daniels. When I look at this bench, I see three guys that are very dangerous on the offensive end with these two and Wafer. Against bad defensive teams these guys could really go off. This is a nice little set of guards.

Adding to this........

Celtics ATS 2009

OVERALL 33-47-2
HOME 12-28-1
AWAY-21-19-1

Celtics O/U 2009

OVERALL 41-40-1
HOME 22-18-
AWAY 19-22

Offense-19th
FG%-4th
Defense-5th
Reb-9th

Quarters
1st: 47-32-2
2nd: 56-25 (best quarter)
3rd: 46-29-6 (worst quarter)

39-17 if up at half (gave up a pretty big amount of leads at half)
4-10 if trailing after the 1st quarter at home

Overall I think this Celtics team is a older more veteran team just like last year. I think they will hold back the reigns a little bit during the regular season and save up for the playoffs just like last year. Perkins will be out for the first half of the season so it will be interesting to see Glen Davis' impact in the starting role. He seems to be veryyy confident and I think he will play well. He played very well in that game 7 against the Lakers, definitely surprised me. If Davis, Daniels, Nate, and Wafer are making an impact then they could be a pretty good team ATS as they will hold the big leads and cover spreads. I think they will be pretty good plays in big games, I think the team will be motivated for these games and you will get 100% effort. Against teams like the Bucks, Blazers, and Hawks etc you probably won't get everything out of them and it most likely won't be that strong a play IMO.

It will probably be a close race between the Celtics, Bulls, and Magic to see who finishes in the 2-4 spots. If I had to say I would go with Bulls, Celtics, Magic. Vegas is a little less high on the bulls than I am. odds to win the East are as follows,

Bulls 10-1
Magic 3-1
Boston 4.5-1

**sweetjones55** · 08-09-10, 05:29 PM

OK done with the Celtics now. Up next are the Charlotte Bobcats

**lolbear** · 08-09-10, 07:25 PM

Excellent stuff. Is the "I really like the Jermaine O'neal signing to fill the void at C" comment a sarcasm? If it is, I don't think it is that bad a signing as they don't need Jermaine O'Neal for an entire season. Also, the heat played against the Celtics in the playoffs last year. Any Center's numbers against Kendrick Perkins vs numbers against a random center in the NBA will easily be very different. JO is obviously on the decline, but don't hold those regular season vs playoff #s against him. When Perk is back the C's will have 5 legit PF/C's who are either experienced and savvy or young and on the rise.

I am not high on Marquis Daniels these days, very hesistant on offense.. Von Wafer seem to overlap Nate's job, hope they combine to work out great.

Excellent analysis! Great stuff keep up the awesome work and BOL

**sweetjones55** · 08-09-10, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by lolbear

Excellent stuff. Is the "I really like the Jermaine O'neal signing to fill the void at C" comment a sarcasm? If it is, I don't think it is that bad a signing as they don't need Jermaine O'Neal for an entire season. Also, the heat played against the Celtics in the playoffs last year. Any Center's numbers against Kendrick Perkins vs numbers against a random center in the NBA will easily be very different. JO is obviously on the decline, but don't hold those regular season vs playoff #s against him. When Perk is back the C's will have 5 legit PF/C's who are either experienced and savvy or young and on the rise.

I am not high on Marquis Daniels these days, very hesistant on offense.. Von Wafer seem to overlap Nate's job, hope they combine to work out great.

Excellent analysis! Great stuff keep up the awesome work and BOL

I mean't to say that "I DONT like the Jermaine O'neal signing". Sorry about that. I watched more of Jermaine O'neal than anyone, every Heat game basically. The guy is pretty much done. Unless he is playing against teams with piss poor forwards/center then he is highly ineffective.

**lakerboy** · 08-09-10, 09:33 PM

Good luck with your NBA wagers this upcoming season SJ. Will be looking forward to your picks and insight. Not much to look at in the NBA forum anymore with all the tools that are in here now but your one i will pay attention to as i look for opportunities to make money. Thanks SJ.

**sweetjones55** · 08-09-10, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Good luck with your NBA wagers this upcoming season SJ. Will be looking forward to your picks and insight. Not much to look at in the NBA forum anymore with all the tools that are in here now but your one i will pay attention to as i look for opportunities to make money. Thanks SJ.

Appreciate that Lakerboy. Good luck on the rest of your MLB plays, hope you finish in the +. Even if you don't the NBA is still going to be a major money maker starting late Oct. I can't see how we don't smash the books.

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-09-10, 11:33 PM

Fading favs ATS made people a lot of money last year I guess, this will be my first full season capping NBA.

Best of luck Sj and I really liked your write-ups.

**sweetjones55** · 08-10-10, 11:32 AM

Ok going to get into the Charlotte Bobcats now, should be up soon.

**WiseGrumpy** · 08-10-10, 12:17 PM

About the Celtics:
First of all I agree, they must hold back in the regular season if they want any chance in the playoffs, this team didn't really change, and with Shaq they just became older. I don't think they will do much this season, we saw a lot of games they couldn't keep up because of the age even though they went all the way and gave the Lakers a MONSTER fight. I think they will finish 3-6 and that will kill them in the playoffs.

**Muggy** · 08-11-10, 09:54 AM

Great job starting this up so early. I'll definitely tune in. GL!

**sweetjones55** · 08-11-10, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Muggy

Great job starting this up so early. I'll definitely tune in. GL!

Over 30 teams with 9 weekends to go til the season starts. This takes a while so I had to get started up early. Five teams a week is tough, I'm not in college anymore.

**brumbies** · 08-11-10, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Over 30 teams with 6 weekends to go til the season starts.

I thought the season starts end oct? So shouldn't it be about 11 more weeks give or take?

**Goat Milk** · 08-12-10, 01:58 AM

solid work here sj. this is what i like reading.

Shaq and Jermaine have really completley lost their offensive touches. It'll be interesting to see what Rondo does now that he has a top 3 C ever to play the game asking for the ball in the post- even if he can't do anything with it. I think this team will struggle to fidn chemistry at the beginnng of the season. they wont start the year like last year, especially with the even slower tempo they will play now- this team is built for the playoffs and thats it. They won't get higher than a 3 seed in the East- if that.