Best Bets Christmas Day 12/25

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Sunday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

Merry Christmas everybody!!!!!

[Illusion]

12/23 results:

imgv94: 2-0-1 +6.00
zzoids911: 3-1-1 +2.70
Illusion: 3-1 +0.86
BigD: 1-1 -0.10
adriano: 2-2 -0.20
onlooker: 0-1 -1.06
Betman: 0-1-1 -1.10
why: 0-1 -1.10

[Illusion]

Spurs +6 -105
Lakers +6 +104

[bookie]

NBA Write-Ups

Det 2H (if effective line is -5.5 or better--otherwise pass)

As an away team the Spurs are ATS 10-4 in 1H’s and 2-10 2H. Having the best record in the Western Conference disguises the terrible 2H record, but the reason for it is clear: San Antonio’s bench isn’t very good. When Duncan and Parker rest the other team comes back.

By contrast Detroit is 6-3 (+4.00) in their home 2H’s, while going only 6-5 1H (0.00) 1H. The Piston bench isn’t very good either, but while Duncan and Parker know they have to earn a big lead early that their teammates can give away when they’re not on the floor, the Pistons fill in around their five stars and never put a survival line-up on the floor. Instead they play quality basketball from start to finish and when their opponent falters they spurt.

I made the Pistons -7.5 and am tempted by the -6, but knowing how the teams distribute their umph is going to keep me off the side in the hope that SA will play a strong 1H so that I can back the Pistons down the stretch at an effective line of -5.5 or better.

Miami 2H (if effective line of +6 or better available--otherwise pass)

This will be only the second game the Heat starters will be playing together since the beginning of the season. The Lakers core, by contrast, have been healthy for three weeks now and seem to be figuring out the triangle. For this reason I like the Lakers at the price, but will hold off until the 2H based on the following reasoning. Since Shaq has come back Miami is 5-1 ATS in their first halves, but only 2-4 in their seconds. This is because Shaq’s conditioning isn’t where it needs to be and his effectiveness diminishes in the second halves. Fueled by their dominant center and feeding off a home crowd I’ll hope the Heat come out strong and get to the half with a two or more point lead setting up what I would see as exceptional 2H Laker value.

[darkghost]

Det/SA o182

BTW Interesting angle Bookie. Gotta look into this.

[adriano]

Det -6
Mia -6
LaL@Mia U 194

[onlooker]

1 unit

703: Spurs +6 -105

[bookie]

Pre-game correction...as my write-up makes clear I'm looking to the Lakers in the 2H, though I wrote Miami at the top...Illusion, sorry for the confusion.

[Illusion]

Det -6
Mia -6
LaL@Mia U 194

Very nice bud.

[Illusion]

Tonight's results:

adriano: 2-1 +0.90
Illusion: 1-1 -0.01
onlooker: 0-1 -1.05
darkghost: 0-1 -1.10

[adriano]

thanks Illusion, two 3s from Divine George robbed my sweep!