[DedesSports]

Hi All,

I have been following several NBA games live, and while looking at the TV I'am also with an eye on Vegas Spreads. And because of that I have a doubt:

When the match starts, and if one team scores, Spread does't change much. Say, match started as -5.5 for A and this team scores 2pts. Line changes to -6.5 or -6. But, the same situation in the later stages of the match, makes the line move a bit more, maybe to -7.
I think this is logic, as at the start of the match, there is still plenty to play and its not a 2pts that will make much difference. On the other hand, closer to end of the match, any score might be critical.

What I am looking for, is a mathematical way of calculating this evolution of how much the spread should move at different stages of the match for the same points basket.

Any idea please ?

thanks

[DedesSports]

So, no ideas,

everybody here bets on NBA Basketball and have no clue on how the line change during the live match ?
On my question I am putting aside all things, like tempo, momentum, injuries, etc etc that can influence in any way the match. I am just looking at the spread and how it should be affected along the 48m when points are scored.

thanks

[GoBlue77]

lol momentum, injuries has nothing to do with it.

they generally stick to the original formula that was calculated to get the original line

[DedesSports]

they generally stick to the original formula that was calculated to get the original line

Yes, I agree, they usually stick with their initial prediction. But, if score starts getting away from that initial prediction, lets says because team A scores 3 baskets in a row (assume 3x2=6 points), by how much the line should move ? And by how much it should be moved if its in the 1st quarter or if in the 3 quarter ?

[7deuceoff$uit]

I too have wondered what they factor into Live NBA betting. I enjoy it, but prefer totals. I would assume the simple way for adjustments to that take the total and divide it by the total number of seconds remaining in the qtr/half/game. If a game goes a certain number of seconds without maintaining the average score, then they adjust it accordingly. On the flip side, if the game is scoring at a higher pace they raise it. Of course I'm sure they have ways to factor in other things. I think turnovers can get factored in for a lower total, and a team heading into the bonus should raise it. Not sure if individual players being on/off the court affect it. I simply enjoy it because you can constantly bet throughout 1 or multiple games. Tonight I started with $100 and turned it into 3k. Got killed on the juice, but it was fun.