Jay Edgar NBA, Monday 03.12.07

**Jay Edgar** · 03-11-07, 11:00 PM

Enjoying another drubbing from the Dallas Mavericks tonight, I decided to check the updated numbers for something I think of as "Messing With The Best."

The only objective way I have to identify the "best" is by my power ratings at the time.

So far this year, we are taking a beating making the method plays that have us opposing a team that is ranked in the top three in my power rankings on that day:

OPPOSING A TEAM POWER-RANKED IN TOP 3
Moneyline plays
22-89
-33.26u

ATS plays
50-56
(.471)
-8.80u

Those elite teams just don't lose, apparently. Magically eliminating all of those easily-identified-beforehand plays so far YTD would have us sitting at a sexy +108 units instead of the more pedestrian +66.

PLAYS AGAINST TEAMS POWER-RANKED 4th THROUGH 30th

Moneyline plays
221-358
+73.00u

ATS plays
310-262
(.542)
+34.90u

**bigboydan** · 03-11-07, 11:46 PM

So much for the Lakers stepping up Sunday night against the Mavs uh Jay

**Dark Horse** · 03-12-07, 01:15 AM

Looks like the Lakers may be letting it slide, like they did last year, so they can play the Suns instead of the Mavs or Spurs.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-12-07, 12:03 PM

Phil doesn't seem too bothered by any of it, that's for sure.

Odom and Walton back this week, supposedly.

**Crayzee** · 03-12-07, 06:52 PM

i know that numbers dont lie but looks odd to see phx that far down on the power rankings

**bigboydan** · 03-12-07, 06:55 PM

looks like Memphis is the spirolena tonight too Jay.

**The HG** · 03-12-07, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Crayzee

i know that numbers dont lie but looks odd to see phx that far down on the power rankings

Right, that's obviously because Phoenix has been "taking it easy" vs the weaker teams they have played recently, which at this point in the season, is not a surprising thing to have happen. Of course, that will affect the numbers, since it's hard to include a factor for "but they could have won by 20 if they had wanted to". But perhaps not impossible.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-13-07, 05:53 AM

Originally posted by Ganchrow HG

Right, that's obviously because Phoenix has been "taking it easy" vs the weaker teams they have played recently, which at this point in the season, is not a surprising thing to have happen. Of course, that will affect the numbers, since it's hard to include a factor for "but they could have won by 20 if they had wanted to". But perhaps not impossible.

True. I do think that on the whole strength of schedule is a profitable thing to respect in the long run. Very few NBA teams can toy with their opponents. (Surely fewer actually can than those that may think they can.) PHX is, sort of, an exception. Monday night they schooled #8 Houston. Before that their opponents since the ASB were ranked:

23, 19, 23, 19, 30, 25 (loss), 30, 8, 28, 22

And their margin of victory in these games was nothing to write home about. Thus, their power rating, even while going 9-1, was not especially high.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-13-07, 05:54 AM

% TEAM ATS ML
7 HOU LOSS -100
11 CHA WIN 114
19 MEM LOSS -100
29 GS WIN 320

Through Monday 03.12.07

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 2-2, +2.34u
(CHA, MEM, HOU, GS)
YTD 245-449, +42.08u
(since the ASB: 36-84, -23.63u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 362-320 (.531) +26.00u
(since the ASB: 54-63 (.462) -12.15u)