Split ... made some filter adjustments... 4-3 at this point... No bets tonight... Still trying to progress forward... NBA is harder than college so far.
Dave
Dave
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Comment -
No bets tonight in college or pro...
Very happy with Marist bet... I predicted they win by 16... the spread was 4... they won exactly by 16.
DaveComment -
Taking Philly under... I have it at 238... without Embiid... it seems like it is reasonable bet.
Enjoy
Dave
The TeachComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 3:10 PM OKLAHOMA CITY 122 DALLAS 111 233 2 242.0 Too Close Under Comment -
Damn it... I keep getting beat. I am loosening the system... then I tighten it... I fine tune it... then I lose again.
In truth, I wasn't close on this bet. They scored way past.
So I will reevaluate what I missed.
Trying hard.... not giving up... the hardest nuts to crack are the most lucrative.
4-4
DaveComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 7:10 PM INDIANA 131 CHARLOTTE 112 243 11 238.0 Away Minus Too Close 0 0 Comment -
Lost again... but made some minor adjustments... I was able to upgrade and filter out the last two losses. There were attributes in those games that contributed to the losses. The problem is not that it is picking losers because often I can go back and upgrade my system and possibly eliminate those picks from being future picks. The problem is that it isn't picking winners and is extremely tight. Starting my game count over tonight. I am trying not to make adjustments but when the picks are clearly wrong... I dive into the system to find out what it is missing. The system is as tight as it has ever been now. Hopefully, it works or shows some signs of working.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET Actual Away Actual Home 10:00 PM SACRAMENTO 117 PHOENIX 117 234 -5 245.5 Away Plus Too Close 0 0 Comment -
Spent three hours tonight on Away + bets... It isn't that I found a glitch but I wanted to fine tune the algorithm again. It still picked Sacramento plus the points.
Waiting on Tennessee St. to start. guess it is delayed.
Good Luck
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
I got a push the other night... I am no longer an NBA loser. Sacramento was only down by 1 with 24 seconds. They lost by 5 obviously but I said I am starting my new trial over.
All my algorithms are backtested... which means they have worked this past season. I haven't been able to get NBA to consistently work... my guess... I am at 40-45% rate... predicted... not back tested. I am truly trying to find the niche.
So on this new trial I am 0-O-1.
This is the my best effort... It is hasn't been easy... no games tonight.
I don't want to bore betters... from here on out I will only post if there is a legitimate bet.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
Ran NBA again this morning... no picks... 0-0-1 on this trial. My college is killing it.
DaveComment -
Frustrated... I thought there no bets were being produced but that isn't the case.
Three different ML parlays were produced.
One on the 14th, one on the 22nd, and one on 23rd. 3 gamer, 3 gamer, and 2 gamer.
For some reason... when my file gets too large... formulas do not carry over. Of course, all three of the parlays won and I didn't have a dime on it.
They paid about 40% on your money each time. Not huge but 40% is 40%.
DaveComment -
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 5:10 PM DALLAS 121 INDIANA 120 241 1 253.5 Away Minus Too Close 9:10 PM CHARLOTTE 112 PORTLAND 119 230 -2.5 214.0 Too Close Over Comment -
First, bets in a while... other than the ML bets that I missed...
NCAAB... and the gambling Gods put me in my place 1-5... yesterday... but I get back up off the mat.
DaveComment -
I appreciate what you're trying to do. I don't know how to make an algorithm , but I know sports. The NBA is impossible to make a system for. Most of the players came out early from College and played minimal games in their careers. Their bodies are not built up to handle an 82 game schedule where you know what you are going to get out of them night to night. You don't know about load management and the minutes they're gonna log that night, or if they'll even play. Not to mention with the $150 million to three hundred million guaranteed contracts what kind of effort you will get from them.
Very little in the NBA is a constant. The info and stats put in has no bearing on the next games, kinda like the disclaimers in the investment ads. So trying to make a system with nothing being consistent is like the saying they used to have in data processing. Sh*% in Sh*% out.Comment -
Lost both bets last night... continuing to work on algorithms... trying to find the weak in vegas odds for NBA if I can...
0-2-1 on latest trial... One bet tonight...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:40 PM DETROIT 107 NEW YORK 122 229 -11 223.5 Too Close Over 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A ### 0 0.0 #N/A #N/A 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A ### 0 0.0 #N/A #N/A 12:00 AM 0 #N/A 0 #N/A ### 0 0.0 #N/A #N/A Comment -
EasyCover... I know that it is going to be tough. I continue to upgrade algorithms and tighten system only to be let down. However, as I upgrade the system... I should be able to overcome in the inconsistencies of the NBA.
I know that is asking a lot. I just lost 2 games after my 15th upgrade and in truth wasn't really close. I fixed my algorithms again... and plan to move forward.
Everytime... I adjust an algorithm which I try not to do... it has to work in the past. Then I put it on trial to see if it works moving forward. I am not done yet with the NBA. I have decided to continue to tighten my algorithms with the NBA. It won't produce very many picks but hopefully with all the data to overcome the lack of consistent data.
Tonight's pick looks good. And the 3 ML parlays at 40% a pop ... you figure is worth 1.5 picks or so. I know the ML Parlays weren't published... not sure why my file didn't pick them up but I am honest. So if tonight wins... I would technically be 2.5-2-1. In college, I don't figure in ML parlays to my results. In NBA, I might have to. Let me run it the next few days and see what happens.
I by no means say that I have NBA figured out... but feels despite Sunday... I am trending in the right direction. I got to keep trying. I want at least 4 working programs by next fall. I think NFL is harder than NBA. Fewer teams and more variance.
Thank you for the feedback.
Dave
THE TEACHComment -
OMG... I won a game by .5... I think I should have won by more than that but thats ok... I will take it. It feels like I am close to making it happen.
Keeping it going.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 10:10 PM MIAMI 115 PORTLAND 110 225 6.5 212.5 Too Close Over Comment -
Thank you, Dave.Comment -
I don't easy... lets see if NBA can be fair tonight...
DaveComment -
Found Major Error in code for NBA... I had to completely revamp system because the one cell was being copied twice while another needed cell was absent. Errors will occur... but this was a pretty big one. It was easily fixed but then I had to back test it. I held my breath when I jumped to the College Program because I was a afraid I would have the same error ... it did not.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:40 PM DALLAS 122 TORONTO 116 238 3 237.5 Away Minus Too Close 8:10 PM CLEVELAND 118 CHICAGO 108 226 5 216.0 Away Minus Over Comment -
Starting New Trial NBA today... Found Huge Computer Glitch...
Bet at your own risk. I haven't gotten it to work... but I had a few cells mixed up and it was producing wrong results. I would wait until you see how it performs. All algorithms are back tested but again... I would give it a chance to prove itself. At least I found there error. I was scared same error existed in my College program which is working, thankfully, it did not. Anyway, here are the games...
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:40 PM DALLAS 122 TORONTO 116 238 3 237.5 Away Minus Too Close 8:10 PM CLEVELAND 118 CHICAGO 108 226 5 216.0 Away Minus Over Last edited by usma1992; 02-28-24, 01:51 PM.Comment -
1-2 to start this trial off. I count the Over as a loss because they did not go over in regulation time. Some may argue with me on this but from a modeling standpoint that is how I am approaching it. I have really loosened the reins again to see what I can make happen. Getting the computer glitch out of the way has given me new life toward the NBA... Bet at your own risk, of course. College did well.. check out the UVA score.
Dave
THE TEACH
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:10 PM MILWAUKEE 127 CHARLOTTE 107 234 12 216.0 Too Close Over 7:30 PM GOLDEN STATE 120 NEW YORK 112 232 4 223.0 Away Minus Over 7:40 PM ATLANTA 117 BROOKLYN 121 238 -1.5 224.0 Too Close Over 10:00 PM MIAMI 107 DENVER 117 223 -4.5 214.0 Too Close Over Comment -
1-4 Last night ... every over fell short. I just can't seem to figure out NBA. Tonight's picks.
Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET 7:10 PM CLEVELAND 122 DETROIT 107 229 9 221.5 Away Minus U Too Close 7:10 PM CHARLOTTE 105 PHILADELPHIA 122 227 -11 214.0 Too Close Over U 7:40 PM GOLDEN STATE 123 TORONTO 114 237 3.5 237.0 Away Minus U Too Close 10:10 PM MILWAUKEE 120 CHICAGO 112 232 4 221.5 Away Minus U Over F Comment -
Made minor adjustments... seem to be working... at least tonight...Comment
