The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 5

[WillyBoy]

The model crashed and all but burned last week, with 4 out of 5 red flags waving SOS!!! The problem is posting projections too early in the day, before late starter scratches are announced. Ideally, I’d post no earlier than just before tip-off, but I have errands to run and other things to do, so it is what it is. That’s my excuse, and I’m sticking to it – at least for one more week. If there’s no improvement, I’ll just shut it down. GLTA

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

Adding a new feature to the daily frame: A star - * - under specific games today indicates one or more key players for either team has shown up on the injury report, and (in my opinion) may or may not start, or play at all. Of course, “injury reports” are notoriously unreliable for some teams, but the league – in this time when on-line wagering is going through the roof – is (supposedly) cracking down on the biggest of the liars (Nick Nurse is currently under investigation by the NBA, but he’s not the only one), so things may get better (or not). FWIW I do run an injury module every morning, which has what I consider a pretty sophisticated WAR (wins-above-replacement) calculation based on the latest injury reports, and this figures into my projections. But then, you’ll get a player with a secret broken leg that a coach will list as a “game time decision” – so then where are you? In the past I used a number of Twitter feeds from “team insiders”, but most have just disappeared, so the best source I have now to elaborate on player injuries is ROTOWIRE – which I always use – profitably – just before the tip-off of any game I’m interested in. I urge all to do the same.

PS. A ton of big lines today, and the model is loving dogs big-time.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]