Jay Edgar NBA, Sunday 02.11.07

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  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576

    #1
    Jay Edgar NBA, Sunday 02.11.07
    MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Saturday, 0-6, -6.45u
    (TOR, ORL, MEM, MIL, CHA, NY)
    YTD 201-347, +68.71u

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Saturday, 2-4, -2.20u
    YTD 297-243 (.550) +41.85u


    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES)
    1 CLE 66
    2 DET 66
    3 DAL 64
    4 TOR 61
    5 SAC 59
    6 UTH 59
    7 MIA 58
    8 SAN 57
    9 NY 56
    10 MIN 53
    11 NOK 53
    12 LAX 53
    13 PHX 53
    14 CHI 52
    15 LAC 50
    16 POR 47
    17 NJ 47
    18 ORL 47
    19 DEN 46
    20 MEM 46
    21 GS 46
    22 PHI 45
    23 ATL 43
    24 SEA 39
    25 IND 39
    26 WAS 39
    27 CHA 37
    28 MIL 37
    29 HOU 31
    30 BOS 29

    EDGAR LINES FOR 02.11.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    MIA 5.5/192 over SAN

    WAS 1.8/116 over POR

    IND 2.9/135 over LAC

    CLE 5.8/203 over LAX

    MIN 5.9/207 over BOS

    DAL 1.5/109 over PHI

    PHX 3.7/151 over CHI

    GS 4.7/172 over ATL

    SAC 6.5/245 over SEA

    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    SAN +232, MIA -160

    POR +138, WAS +102

    LAC +161, IND -114

    LAX +248, CLE -169

    BOS +253, MIN -172

    DAL+109, PHI +129

    CHI +181, PHX -127

    ATL +207, GS -144

    SEA +304, SAC -202


    20%-OFF MARKER
    (This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

    SAN +545, MIA +113

    POR +264, WAS +186

    LAC +322, IND +158

    LAX +606, CLE +107

    BOS +628, MIN +106

    DAL+200, PHI +244

    CHI +375, PHX +142

    ATL +455, GS +125

    SEA +884, SEA -109
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 02-11-07, 11:42 PM.
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    Interesting slate of games for Sunday we have Jay.
    Comment
    • Jay Edgar
      SBR MVP
      • 03-08-06
      • 1576

      #3
      Numbers complete for Sunday.

      (Proofreading all past performance numbers has resulted in several very minor tweaks from what was posted earlier.)

      GL
      Comment
      • onlooker
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-10-05
        • 36572

        #4
        Sounds good Jay. Good luck tomorrow.

        Comment
        • bigboydan
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-10-05
          • 55420

          #5
          Any changes in the numbers in that Wizards game due to the suspensions Jay?
          Comment
          • onlooker
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 08-10-05
            • 36572

            #6
            Originally posted by bigboydan
            Any changes in the numbers in that Wizards game due to the suspensions Jay?
            I think he has said before that his numbers dont adjust for injuries/suspended players.
            Comment
            • bside
              SBR Sharp
              • 10-25-06
              • 363

              #7
              Not to speak for Jay, but I asked this question in relation to injuries and his response was basically he felt it had little impact especially for the first game or two. I would think suspensions would fall in this range. It is interesting to me that Was is -7 in that position though. This game falls into the 20% off category so not sure how I am going to deal with it yet.
              Comment
              • Jay Edgar
                SBR MVP
                • 03-08-06
                • 1576

                #8
                Thanks for the discussion in the thread, guys. I like that.

                You've got it right -- the numbers that I create can't and don't change based on personnel. They derive entirely from past performances (team past performance in last ten games, team past performance at this home/road venue, and league past performance with this amount of rest since the last game). I don't have a historical sample of no-Nash games to estimate how much no Nash changes their abilities. (Unless of couse the no-Nash sample is the last 5 games, in which case his absence is then built into the ratings.)

                But as for when there is a brand new injury or suspension:
                if you think that today's lineup is really critically different from a team's past lineups, you can treat the ratings as unreliable and act accordingly. But I will say that in my opinion the market thoroughly factors -- in fact overfactors -- injuries into the line. Thus you get more than fair value for this missing player if you stick with the play on his team.
                Comment
                • bigboydan
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 55420

                  #9
                  Originally posted by onlòóker
                  I think he has said before that his numbers dont adjust for injuries/suspended players.
                  Thats what I thought, but I wanted to double check was all looker.

                  2 key suspensions is what scared me in that Wizards game, because it really leaves them thin in the front court.
                  Comment
                  • DrSlamm
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-10-05
                    • 577

                    #10
                    well that is probably one of the worst first halves the wizards have had this year
                    Comment
                    • bigboydan
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 55420

                      #11
                      That was pretty bad Dr.Slamm.

                      Like I said above though. I was fearful of that thin front court of the Wizards in this game.
                      Comment
                      • bigboydan
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 55420

                        #12
                        Originally posted by DrSlamm
                        well that is probably one of the worst first halves the wizards have had this year
                        We both thought the first half was bad. However, checkout how bad there playing in the 2nd half
                        Comment
                        • AC1318
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-09-06
                          • 6712

                          #13
                          aside from the suspension and injury in washington
                          portland has owned washington at home since first meeting
                          +7 was a gift
                          also arenas running his teeth about gonna blowout portland and score 50 while doing it
                          bit him in the ass
                          Comment
                          • Jay Edgar
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-08-06
                            • 1576

                            #14
                            %OFF TEAM ATS ML
                            8 CLE WIN 100
                            8 LAC LOSS -100
                            9 BOS WIN -100
                            10 CHI WIN 227
                            18 POR WIN 250
                            20 MIA WIN 113
                            22 PHI LOSS -100


                            MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
                            Sunday, 4-3, +3.90u
                            (MIA, POR, LAC, CLE, BOS, PHI, CHI)
                            YTD 205-350, +72.61u

                            SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
                            Sunday, 5-2, +2.90u
                            YTD 302-245 (.552) +44.75u
                            Last edited by Jay Edgar; 02-12-07, 11:22 AM.
                            Comment
                            • wrongturn
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-06-06
                              • 2228

                              #15
                              Should ML be 4-3?
                              Comment
                              • Jay Edgar
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-08-06
                                • 1576

                                #16
                                Originally posted by wrongturn
                                Should ML be 4-3?

                                Thanks.
                                Somehow I had the Cavs listed as a loss originally.
                                Now corrected.
                                Comment
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