nba dec 16 -what am i missing??
in the sac/mem game i gotta be missing something cuz this looks "2 good 2 b true"
based on skills/talent/performances to date we see:
sacramento kings r awful.
rated in the bottom third of a 30 team league ~23rd or 24th
kings r just 9-16 overall
woeful 4-10 on the road. this is a ROAD game.
they r 3-7 their past 10 (incl 7 road games)
against good opps like memphis, on the road,
they did defeat raptors early in nov,
but then lost by 8 @knicks
lost by 20 @jazz
lost by 34 @rockets
even on the road against mediocre/weak teams the kings
lost 5 and 4 of those by 6 pts or more!
and tonite likey to b w/o #2 best player!! (Rudy Gay)
but they r only 5.5 pt underdogs (??)
the grizz meanwhile r rated in the TOP third, ~8th or 9th
grizz r 18-9 overall despite 3 key players missing significant time
and tonite they get back their star guard/#2 scorer (Conley)!
grizz r 10-4 at home.
grizz r 7-3 past 10 (incl 7 home)
against loser teams like the kings, AT HOME, grizz r 8-1
grizz have all their starters back and key reserves
they r playing well and at home against a weak opp
so why only laying -5.5 now after opening -7?
this is barely more than standard homecourt edge if between 2 EQUAL opps!
but these aren't near equal opps! clearly memphis has a large edge here!
*btw, i am not a fan of ATS crap.
to me thats just a measure of coin flip results and basically irrelevent
except possibly to GO AGAINST the trend.
but if U r, the grizz appear to hold most the key edges there too!
grizz -5.5
i am also looking to doubledown on grizz but before i do that im hoping to here of some breaking development from any polite person here w/info that suggests a HUGE impact on expectations for a GOOD team - who r getting their star back - to cover a near standard homecourt edge against a much WEAKER team - and who r likely to miss their #2 player tonite
wtf am i missing??
anyone?
tia
update: although i bet -5.5, line now only -5
if grizz were playing a WINNING team like maybe utah, oklahoma, knicks, i would expect a home line of -5
based on skills/talent/performances to date we see:
sacramento kings r awful.
rated in the bottom third of a 30 team league ~23rd or 24th
kings r just 9-16 overall
woeful 4-10 on the road. this is a ROAD game.
they r 3-7 their past 10 (incl 7 road games)
against good opps like memphis, on the road,
they did defeat raptors early in nov,
but then lost by 8 @knicks
lost by 20 @jazz
lost by 34 @rockets
even on the road against mediocre/weak teams the kings
lost 5 and 4 of those by 6 pts or more!
and tonite likey to b w/o #2 best player!! (Rudy Gay)
but they r only 5.5 pt underdogs (??)
the grizz meanwhile r rated in the TOP third, ~8th or 9th
grizz r 18-9 overall despite 3 key players missing significant time
and tonite they get back their star guard/#2 scorer (Conley)!
grizz r 10-4 at home.
grizz r 7-3 past 10 (incl 7 home)
against loser teams like the kings, AT HOME, grizz r 8-1
grizz have all their starters back and key reserves
they r playing well and at home against a weak opp
so why only laying -5.5 now after opening -7?
this is barely more than standard homecourt edge if between 2 EQUAL opps!
but these aren't near equal opps! clearly memphis has a large edge here!
*btw, i am not a fan of ATS crap.
to me thats just a measure of coin flip results and basically irrelevent
except possibly to GO AGAINST the trend.
but if U r, the grizz appear to hold most the key edges there too!
grizz -5.5
i am also looking to doubledown on grizz but before i do that im hoping to here of some breaking development from any polite person here w/info that suggests a HUGE impact on expectations for a GOOD team - who r getting their star back - to cover a near standard homecourt edge against a much WEAKER team - and who r likely to miss their #2 player tonite
wtf am i missing??
anyone? tia
update: although i bet -5.5, line now only -5
if grizz were playing a WINNING team like maybe utah, oklahoma, knicks, i would expect a home line of -5