CK/wangichu's Think Tank

wangichu · 05-19-09, 03:52 AM

The nuggets have run into the lakers 11 times over the last two years (second straight year meeting in the playoffs, and have lost every 1Q in that span. Furthermore, the lakers have more momentum coming out of that 7 game series while the nuggets may come out a little sluggish.

LAL 1Q ML

leaning on the nuggets for the game too, line movement supporting their cause with just about a balance on the money for each side.

BL · 05-19-09, 06:19 AM

i think i'm gonna make some big money with

Denver-Dallas OVER 215
Denver +9,5

suckatmyjob · 05-19-09, 07:29 AM

CK I love your heavy picks but still on the side line on this one, you hit about 8 out of 10 if not more on your Heavy picks but this one so far only one I'm not so sure

Looking Head 2 Head
Lakers got Denver's number 14 - 6 ATS and 13 - 7 SU with home record vs Denver 8-1 ATS and 8 - 1 SU.

I think you also mention somewhere that you think each team will win their home court so right now I"m leaning at Lakers -3.5 with a 3 pt buy rather than a Denver 9.5 with a 3 pt buy mainly b/c the victories Lakers had vs Denver has been double digit blow outs

Is lakers tired from sunday's game doubt it seem like a huge blow out and they got enough rest but would denver be tired or taking too long of a break? That seems more like it and a run and gun team like Denver I think needs the action - a long rest like that this game could be ugly Lakers arent like Dallas or I dont think they are they wont let Denver come back if they are ahead - this Denver hasnt played ball in almost a week

No doubt about it Denver has been a covering machine and I love to follow them but something about this game just doesnt seem right

cs11787 · 05-19-09, 11:56 AM

I hate to say it, but look at what happened in game 1 of the Houston/Lakers series. The Rockets arent even in the same league as Denver right now. So if LA doesnt wake up, theyre in for a surprise. Should be a hell of a series here. Im leanin Denver +8.5 (2 point buy) and a very small sprinkle on the ML. Lakers are in for a surprise.

dakid04200 · 05-19-09, 12:04 PM

Since the Lakers lost the first game of the last series a t home, I don't see them losing this one. So the money line looks safe to me, but Denver and the points may be the way to go ATS.

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 01:50 PM

Love the posts.......

Personally I am going to bang the Nuggets ML. You guys keep talking about past games......while the Nuggets are NO WHERE NEAR the team they were in those games.....

Cock....you also have a rule to FADE a team that just played a game 7 in the first game of the next series.

Nuggets come to play tonight and take game one. $1,000 to make $2,500.

kmarinouofm · 05-19-09, 01:58 PM

You Sir, Have Balls.. now lets get this

Originally posted by SmackdownV

Love the posts.......

Personally I am going to bang the Nuggets ML. You guys keep talking about past games......while the Nuggets are NO WHERE NEAR the team they were in those games.....

Cock....you also have a rule to FADE a team that just played a game 7 in the first game of the next series.

Nuggets come to play tonight and take game one. $1,000 to make $2,500.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 02:24 PM

I don't see the Lakers losing tonight. They let down against Utah and the Rockets, Phil won't let it happen in Game 1 at home. The Nuggets are good, but the Lakers have owned them so far and until they prove otherwise I can't bet them on the ML. But they might cover the +6.5.

NBA Hero · 05-19-09, 02:30 PM

lakers just came out from a fairly good game defensively against rockets. they are ready to roll a the start against nuggets at their house with some home cooked calls by the refs

cocknocker · 05-19-09, 02:33 PM

Two of the PC's have dropped off on the side of this game, so that dramatically is changing the way that I am viewing it. There are strong indicators that the Lakers may end up pouring a can of gasoline on Denvers' back in this game. I may end up biting..

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Two of the PC's have dropped off on the side of this game, so that dramatically is changing the way that I am viewing it. There are strong indicators that the Lakers may end up pouring a can of gasoline on Denvers' back in this game. I may end up biting..

Cock......

That post was like a riddle. Can you explain for us lil folks!

Thanks! I'm about to lay the wood on the Nuggets ML......Talk me out of it.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 02:41 PM

I'm glad I waited on this. I'm feeling what CK is thinking!

k22t · 05-19-09, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

I'm glad I waited on this. I'm feeling what CK is thinking!

Me too.. Nuggets +6.5 looks too easy to take. I was leaning that way but now that I think about it i'm indecisive. what are you guys thinking?

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 02:45 PM

I do know one thing......

The under has gone like 7-1 the past 8 games between these two.....not one coming close to the posted 214.5.

The Refs in LA HATE the Nuggets and pretty much foul out the Denva players in the first half.

The NBA wants a Kobe/Lebron matchup so they can do that whole Bird/Magic thing again.....

So I'm confused.......do you play the bet for talent.....or do you play the bet for what the National Bookie Association wants.

Please Reply......I'm laying the wood on someone tonight.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 02:49 PM

I'm looking at a 2 team, 6 pt teaser Lakers -.5, Cavs -3. I'm not touching the over/under.

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 02:50 PM

Now my head is officially spinning.

They set the line low so you think it's going to be close. Personally I think it will be a one sided blowout.....(but which side)?........The over is at 214.5.....these teams have gone under a crapton recently......everyone is betting the under and it's going up??????

Are the bookies that good......or am I just that stupid?

BL · 05-19-09, 02:52 PM

I really cannot see the Lakers win by >8 !
62% of all bettors are on LA and the line has not moved a quantum! If you ask me the question today is not if the Lakers let the nuggets win. The question is if Denver is ready to kick Kobes ass. It's game1. It's nugget-time.

Smackdown: Earlier today i liked the under. But the line movement made me change my mind totally. But i because i bet the Nuggets today i have to go with the over. If Kobe&Co. want to mess with the nuggets its gonna go high in the 220s

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 02:54 PM

Smack, the bookies are that good. Just look at the Celtics/Magic Game 7. They didn't let the 32-0, Boston Garden, Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, etc. mystique phase them one bit. They cleaned up on the Magic.

cocknocker · 05-19-09, 02:54 PM

I am giving the edge to the Lakers tonight because Vegas stands to win 72% of Denver moneyline plays compared to only 28% of Lakers moneyline. And side wise there's only a 4% difference 48% to 52% favoring the Lakers. Vegas wins more money if the Lakers cover because of the big disparity on moneyline plays.

The Lakers always blow Denver out at home. What's gonna change now? Houston woke the Lakers up. It's all systems go. I'd rather take LA-5.5 at home

peeiempee · 05-19-09, 02:56 PM

Good to see that you like Lakers too. Always makes be feel uneasy when I'm opposite from u CK and the rest of the board here

k22t · 05-19-09, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I am giving the edge to the Lakers tonight because Vegas stands to win 72% of Denver moneyline plays compared to only 28% of Lakers moneyline. And side wise there's only a 4% difference 48% to 52% favoring the Lakers. Vegas wins more money if the Lakers cover because of the big disparity on moneyline plays.

The Lakers always blow Denver out at home. What's gonna change now? Houston woke the Lakers up. It's all systems go. I'd rather take LA-5.5 at home

Is that what your taking CK? LA -5.5? stands on 5dimes at -130

mehow · 05-19-09, 03:01 PM

BL you are right my friend

let's make money today

BL · 05-19-09, 03:02 PM

CK, what u think on the Game today going over the total

sweetjones55 · 05-19-09, 03:03 PM

The nuggets the lakers used to blow out aren't the same team they are playing tonight. The Nuggets actually play defense now and their bench is coming up bigger than ever. Lakers have 1 day of rest while Nuggets have been preparing for them.

kmarinouofm · 05-19-09, 03:03 PM

CK , by your reasoning Vegas would actually make the most money if Denver Covered but still lost.

Vegas would cash all the ML for Denver , and All the laker backers (which is the side majority)
and only pay out the Smaller Denver side along with the small Lakers ML

I think the Lakers win.. but its a close one.. maybe by 3..

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Smack, the bookies are that good. Just look at the Celtics/Magic Game 7. They didn't let the 32-0, Boston Garden, Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, etc. mystique phase them one bit. They cleaned up on the Magic.

My two game parlay on the Lakeshow Sunday was a great win! Then I had the stupid a$$ idea to go heavy on the Celtics.....

I got my head kicked in on that one. But I did post here before the game......(be it football or basketball....do you ever notice that any team favs by 2.5-3 points at HOME get blown OUT)........then I took the Celtics anyway.

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 03:10 PM

Honestly I am thinking Nuggets ML for no other reason than the bookies like to use game 1's as "set-up" games......

They will take the loss in a game 1 to get HEAVY losses on game 2 based on betting perceptions about what went down. Just a thought.....but I LOVE the Nuggets ML tonight and I am leaning on the over as well due to the way the line is moving based on betting.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 03:11 PM

Kobe didn't even play the 4th Quarter Sunday. I don't buy into the "rest" issue this late in the season. I've seen plenty of teams off for a week or more lose their first game because they're rusty.

BL · 05-19-09, 03:15 PM

I won't change my opinion:

OVER 214,5 (+) Nuggets +6,5

Vegas is not that bad.. but so am i ;-)

cocknocker · 05-19-09, 03:16 PM

No opinion on the total yet guys. i am looking for a late break

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 03:29 PM

Well I'm definitely on the Lakers 1Q. 11-0 in their last 11 games against Denver according to another thread.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 03:31 PM

Cleveland line just moved to -8.5 on Bookmaker.

isiah121 · 05-19-09, 03:32 PM

Too bad sorry ass Bodog doesnt have 1Q bets.

RoagBettor · 05-19-09, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by isiah121

Too bad sorry ass Bodog doesnt have 1Q bets.

Then open an account with someone who does!

SmackdownV · 05-19-09, 03:39 PM

Smackdowns SUPER DUPER 2 Game parlay of the year:

Nuggets ML
Nuggets OVER 214.5

Take that to the Bizzank.......