Grillz Player Pick of the Night 2015-16 NBA Thread

[grillzboy224]

Monta Ellis over 14.5


Today: 1-0

Overall: 11-4

[grillzboy224]

hahaha I might soon, but I feel so much more confident with points.

[Jeff_Black]

I always get scared a few early fouls will hurt when I do player props but Ellis usually is one guy who it doesn't matter if he only gets two pts the first quarter if the total is decent he can still reach it late like he did today
Hell if harden didn't miss his first eleven freakin shots you woulda gotten the harden over on Friday haha

Fouls I think those that have high totals because if you have say Westbrook or whoever and he gets fouled early he's basically sits out the 1Q

[grillzboy224]

I always get scared a few early fouls will hurt when I do player props but Ellis usually is one guy who it doesn't matter if he only gets two pts the first quarter if the total is decent he can still reach it late like he did today
Hell if harden didn't miss his first eleven freakin shots you woulda gotten the harden over on Friday haha

Fouls I think those that have high totals because if you have say Westbrook or whoever and he gets fouled early he's basically sits out the 1Q

Exactly! I don't like to really bet on foul prone players either. You get unlucky every once in a while, but it's all about checking for who's injured and who's on a roll, and then just exploit the line until bookies catch up

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah pretty much, some players are unguardable against other teams for whatever reasons, sometimes you take it because they're out of form and not shooting great.

[grillzboy224]

Looking at the lines for today.

At first glance I like Batum over 17.5 and slight leans on Al Jeff over 15.5, Wiggins over 19.5, Gortat over 10.5, AD over 26.5 and Curry over 29.5. I'll decide in a few hours

[luan92]

The bookies are starting to catch up. Lines are what they should be now

[grillzboy224]

Still think the Batum line is a gift

[Jeff_Black]

You ever looked at group highest scoring betting? Some bookies outside the U.S. offer it and if you think a guy will have a hot night then there is obviously a bit of value.
For example

[grillzboy224]

Looks good, but i like to keep it simple haha

[grillzboy224]

November 17th Player Pick of the Night:

Nicolas Batum over 17.5-> The offense is being run through him like LBJ in Cleveland or PG in Indiana, and he's thriving at the SG position, looking for a mass amount of shots. He had a good game at the beginning of his current high in form against NYK last week (24 points) and I see no reason for him to stop. Always like the angle of playing against a team with a fellow French national team member on it (Seraphin). His length at the SG position is crazy, and he's exploiting it. Their offense is flowing with this strategy and they're having success with it. I don't see a reason why it would stop here.

Overall: 11-4

Let's get this!

[grillzboy224]

Also, it's a contract year and he's finally getting the chance to shine that he never had in Portland. He can now take the shots he wants to instead of being deterred by LMA and Video Game Dame.

[grillzboy224]

leaning towards Gortat over 10.5 with Beal unlikely to play

Bradley Beal unlikely to play Tuesday vs MIL

[grillzboy224]

update on the Batum pick: Jeremy Lamb is questionable and P.J. Hairston is out

P.J. Hairston out Tuesday against Knicks

Jeremy Lamb questionable for Tuesday vs NYK

[nahlij]

update on the Batum pick: Jeremy Lamb is questionable and P.J. Hairston is out

P.J. Hairston out Tuesday against Knicks

Jeremy Lamb questionable for Tuesday vs NYK

The more reason to bet on batum scoring more right?

[grillzboy224]

The more reason to bet on batum scoring more right?

A bet is a bet, and never a sure thing, but, yes, I would say that it makes it even more obvious to pick him.

[nahlij]

Im curious which sportsbook do you use? I use bovada and these props arent available yet :/

[grillzboy224]

Sportingbet and Tipico. Usually the latter because sportingbet has a small tax on bets, and tipico lets you get players at lower overs than anywhere else I've seen.

[grillzboy224]

Both release their lines pretty early too. I've heard they are much quicker than the Australian sportsbet.com.au and sites like Williamhill (Williamhill does offer more lines (like assists and rebounds, or a point total a bit higher than the normal over on a certain player + the win (good odds)) but usually too late for my liking) release them much later.

[luan92]

You still liking gortat here?

[grillzboy224]

Have a small parlay on player bets with Batum (17.5), Davis (26.5), Curry (29.5) and Gortat (10.5). I won't be using Gortat as one of my picks of the night though.

[mohye1980]

My book has Baum at 14.5 at -140 hope we both hit. Good luck to us

[grillzboy224]

Your book is handing out early xmas gifts

[Bic]

Batum has only scored over 17 once away from home this year, and although his recent for and trend makes this look good, I might pass on this one.

Best of luck though, I have tailed you a lot recently, but just not sure about today so going to pass.

[grillzboy224]

No problem dude! Thanks for the info!

[mohye1980]

I added two more units lets go Batum. Mad buckets bro lets get this!!!!

[grillzboy224]

I added two more units lets go Batum. Mad buckets bro lets get this!!!!

14.5 is crazy good. Which site?

[mohye1980]

14.5 is crazy good. Which site?

I go thru a local guy. They always have player props over under off by 2 points it seems like. Not always in my benefit. This is the first time it's been in my favor. A few of your previous plays my line was higher by a couple points.

[grillzboy224]

Hope you loaded up on that lol

[grillzboy224]

Or not...

[luan92]

Is anthony davis injured

[grillzboy224]

Is anthony davis injured

back in the locker room. Shoulder doesn't feel good.

Aaaaand he's not returning

[grillzboy224]

I'm sorry for the Batum pimping guys.

[grillzboy224]

Batum has only scored over 17 once away from home this year, and although his recent for and trend makes this look good, I might pass on this one.

Best of luck though, I have tailed you a lot recently, but just not sure about today so going to pass.

You are right on the money man!

[grillzboy224]

Adding: Curry over 29.5