After successfully pulling in 40% in the MLB and NFL I am now out to attempt to achieve it in the NBA. Last year's NBA experiment was highly controversial but it helped me to define the ideas that I am now using. I refined them in the MLB and finally put them to use with real money in the NFL. I used something I call the 3 game regression theory in the NFL. The approach I am using in the NBA this year is similar but I am waiting 4 games instead of 3. The chase system is 6 tiers deep and is a grand martingale system. It would take 60 wins to reach my goal. I may try compounding my profits as I go to try and shave that number down a little. My target is 40% and will exit when I reach it. My first play is CLE -9. They are on a 4 game losing streak ATS. My bankroll is at $1,400. I will start my chase at $9.80 to win $9.33. With each loss I will multiply by 2.1 and then add another $9.80. I am using 0.007 of my bankroll. When I win I will recalculate. It will only be raising my bets by pennies but over time those pennies will add up.
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Won last night. I am going with MIL under 192.5. They have had a streak of 4 games going over. I do not like using totals as much as spreads as I have seen some very large streaks in the totals. I do not think the public reaction is as strong. My guess is that there is a much smaller volume of bets on totals then spreads therefore making large streaks more likely. The more volume there is the more efficient the lines will be. The more efficient the lines are the better this theory will work. I had a slight miscalculation, it would take 62.5 bets to hit 40%, not 60. I am compounding with each bet to try and shave that number down. Today I bet $9.86 to win $8.96. It is only an increase of 6 cents but over time those pennies will add up.Comment -
May I suggest you go against the really good teams or with the really bad teams. Those spreads should be out of whack with public opinion. If you combine doing that with waiting for 4 games, you should succeed no problem. Also, the public over values the OVERS, so go against only that.
good luck to ya
How many bets did you win in the NFL?Comment -
Two wins to start the NBA season. Nice start, I'll take it.
Today was a really tough choice. I want to avoid totals if I can
because of the long streaks I found in the MLB and NFL. I did not
find any in the NBA but I am sure if I look hard enough I will. I
will use them as a last resort but I believe the point spread offers
much stronger volatility which is needed to make this system work.
That said, there are two streaks for totals I am tracking. Cleveland
has gone under for the last 5 games. Minnesota has gone over for the
last 7 games. That is tempting but I have chosen a different path.
I will track it to see what happens.
I have chosen to fade the Grizzlies. The Lakers are not too hot
right now and people are not backing them. That is usually a good
recipe for a turn around. Really tough to go against MEM here but if
the Lakers do not get the job done they are facing Houston, Portland,
and San Antonio in their upcoming schedule. One of those teams
should be able to knock them off their current ATS win streak.
11/26 (Fade MEM) LAL +6.5 $9.92 to win $9.02Comment -
I went 11 - 10. With the chase system this was not a problem but flat betting I would have been in the red. I hit a really scary patch with the Saints. I went down to my final tier. I got them at +3 and they lost the game by a point. That was a close call but I made it. I have now hit 40% in the MLB and NFL. Looking to do the same in the NBA.Comment -
3 wins, nice start woohoo!!! Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
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wow u have anything for fri?Comment -
I'm taking CHI -3 vs BOS. There were other plays too but I favor strong teams looking to bounce back ATS over weak teams looking to do the same. CHI is on a 4 game streak ATS and Char is on a 5 game streak if you do not include the pushes. I will keep my eye on them but I prefer CHI to bounce back against Boston. If they do not get it done against the Celtics then they have BKN and Char coming up. I believe they will cover at least one of those 3 games. I have had a nice start but I have a long ways to go. Don't expect things to stay this smooth forever.Comment -
The bet is CHI -3 $9.99 to win $9.08.Comment -
My hot streak continues. Much better start then I had in the NFL. The only plays available today are totals. CLE has gone under 6 times in a row so I am going over. The other one that I will keep my eye on is Charlotte. They have gone over for 5 in a row. Today's play is CLE over 195.5 -110. $10.05 to win $9.14Comment -
CLE hits the over. The only team that really qualifies for a play today in my system is Orlando. The strength of schedule for the next 6 games has me leery of pulling the trigger on them. When using a chase system you must do everything in your power to avoid a streak that will wipe out your bankroll. While they probably will cover at least one game out of those six, I don't see them winning any of them. I am staying away. I am taking a play on CHI even though they are not currently in regression. They face BKN twice and CHA within the next 6 games. I believe they should cover at least one of those games. I am taking CHI -3 (-110) vs. BKN $10.12 to win $9.20. Hopefully the hot streak continues.Comment -
You should go with Orlando. You will get some nice + numbers. Here is what I estimate:
@ Pheonix is already +10.5
@ Golden State +14
@ Clippers +14 (back to back)
@ Utah +6
@ Sacramento +9.5 (back to back)
vs Washington +5.5
Just a guess on my part, but they cover 1 of these.Comment -
Today's play: 12/2 BKN over 192.5 (-110) $10.18 to win $9.25.Comment -
The win streak finally comes to an end. I am on BKN again today: 12/3 BKN over 195 (-110) $35.56 to win 32.33Comment -
So many things worth noting down imo and it is a terrific discussion here. I agree with 4 plays, more factors involving games played on daily basis rather than weekly. What was the major thing that you thought you had overlooked/unexpected to happen/also major diff comparing to the other two sports ac. you, my friend?Comment -
Excuse me for not posting. I have been conducting these experiments for 2 years now and I am satisfied that the system does give me a true edge. The risk, however is extreme. I have always maintained that if I ever found a way to abandon chase systems and grind it out the way the pros do that I would do it in a heartbeat. I believe I have found that way. It is my own picks, I found a touting service I believe I can actually trust: www.precisionpicks.com. They are pretty expensive but you can look at back logs for years of their picks. They post their picks publicly 30 minutes after the game begins. I have had my eye on them for a while. I have decided to give them a shot. I cut my losses with my current chase and am now putting all of my resources into this. I will be following Richard Hartline's NBA picks to start. I have had bad luck with touting services in the past. These guys are much more high end. Hopefully that will make a difference. Given that I have seen their history it would be pretty hard to fake. He averages 59% in all sports and is over 70% in the last 30 days in the NBA.Comment -
So are you abandoning the Pendulum system and track ?
Do you think the risk of losing your Bank is higher than Precisionpicks guys? I thought "true edge" meant you could get it back in the end? And thanks for answering
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