Leans for Monday 3/16/09

[peterpan19]

ok guys, a little bit late today, but still no line on some of the games today:

Hou +4 (or maybe even more..)
well i think its a good spot for Hou here today, they come off that close home loss to the Spurs and want revenge to keep their hopes for a better seed alive, NO on the other side completed a 4 game road trip, so first game after a roadie so have to figure they are a bit tired

OKC +5
mhh.. 2nd best game so far, but not really like it a lot, so I will wait for the Char and Mem line

a good 7pt teaser would include Hou+11 and Okc +12 right now, but not sure what the 3rd team should be, if the line on the jets goes up even more to like 12 or 13 that would be nice too... that said I dont like the games today too much, I mean denver could very well blow them away, but the way the they played as of late.. ugly

only game I would like is the Bobcats at home with a low spread, they lost 3 games in a row and now the lovely Raptors come into town on b2b after a blowout win, look for a letdown today..


maybe even Portland today, 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in mem and memphis coming after a 4 game road trip with a victory against Detroit and portland off a blowout loss in Atlanta, hoping for a low spread here...
forget about that one, either Memphis or no play here...
but I think we will find out in a few minutes...

edit:
Bobcats -6
mem +6.5

[vassman86]

Portland at Memphis

My thoughts on this one are that Memphis will be feeling some momentum after a big road win last night over the Pistons. Not much good can be said for the Blazers who have been just terrible on the road this year.
My play for this game is Memphis +3.5 first half. Historically, Memphis has played well against Portland in the first half, managing to win the first half straight-up on several occasions, especially on home court.

Portland is a notoriously slow-starting team, and Memphis has been coming out strong and playing some great first half basketball over the past few games (trailing the Celtics by 3 in the first half, and beating Detroit by 17)

I can't see Portland winning this first half, yet alone the first quarter. Portland has lost their past three first halves (DAL, NJ, ATL). The Blazers may turn up the heat and come out with a win, but tonight's first half belongs to Memphis.

Memphis +3.5 First Half
Memphis +2 First Quarter

[solobass]

denver f#ck#rs haven't covered for 4 games already...sacramento lost SU, houston lost SU, okc lost ATS, lac lost ATS (i had it at 13.5)...this team is overrated...billups alone wont help this team...denver f#ck#rs!!!

Denver covered for me the other night, but i got them at -12.5 and it was not there for long. Figuring any kind of consistency with the nuggets has been frustrating because they can be so good at times.

[peterpan19]

7 pt teaser as of now:
OKC +12, Hou +11 and NJ +19 (subject to change)

[RoagBettor]

peterpan,

I'm all over it. 3 team/8 pt teaser locked in:

HOUSTON +12.5
OKC +13
NJ +20

[solobass]

yeah the thing about a game like the nuggets/nets game is this. for the nuggets to cover, a lot has to go right. for the nets to cover a large spread like that, only a few things have to go their way (backdoor cover, harris plays, one miracle quarter, harris's backup plays out of his mind) so these can be tough to call.

[cocknocker]

CK, your crazy to bet the nets tomorrow without Devin Harris. I Don't care what the numbers add up to for however your trying to configure this, but cmon man either don't bet this game or bet the Nuggets. There is 0 reason to take the Nets here. They are a dead team. If they can't be leading against the Clippers at half WITH a Devin Harris in the lineup then there is no way WITHOUT him in the lineup that they are even gonna stay in the SAME ballpark as the Nuggets. The Nets needed no sure win more then they did tonight, how did they respond to that challange? They were down 11 at half. There done, forget it, goodbye. Second bad part of this equation is that there playing a b2b in Denver with the thin air which will make it even tougher on the Nets to get up and down the court. I could go on and on, but if you take this bet I think it is a very foolish move.

Denver hasn't covered in two straight games this year against a double digit number. With a statistic like that, I can't fight against that streak. The truth is they are a fragile, underacheiving team that get inflated lines at home. I am gonna wait until right befre gametime to make my wager At the rate that the public is making their move, I may end up getting them at +14 with a 2 point buy, which suits me just fine. I mean we'll see what happens over the day. Devin Harris production will be replaced.

[solobass]

cp3 averages 11 assists a game how sick is that? they are a few role players and a good PF/C away from really doing some damage.......

[peterpan19]

NO-F-Stojakovic-OUT
line down to 3.5 from 4.5

[vassman86]

What is going on with the Bobcats line? It opened at -6 about an hour ago and has quickly shot up to -7.5

Anyone have some news to share??

[Tennispro]

Hmm i really like New Orleans today -3,5

[cocknocker]

Memphis is 8-2 ats in their last 10 games. Portland backers looking for a free chicken dinner beware. As far as my other game that has come under scrutiny, I am looking at it from the standpoint of a cold ats team playing against another ice cold ats team. Who knows? By the end of the day, I may not pull the trigger on that one at all, and just may wait for the game against Memphis which no one is going to be able to talk me off of! What I am waiting to see is if there ends up being any reverse movement on this game. On the surface though it looks TOO easy to take the Nuggets. The Nets are getting a scrub spread. As bad as the Nets have been playing of late, they still aren't a scrub team.

[solobass]

What is going on with the Bobcats line? It opened at -6 about an hour ago and has quickly shot up to -7.5

Anyone have some news to share??

Bargani for the raps and Felton for the bobs are both probable....other than that, that is a dramatic line move

[cocknocker]

What is going on with the Bobcats line? It opened at -6 about an hour ago and has quickly shot up to -7.5

Anyone have some news to share??

Yeah....The Bobcats are the correct call and should win this game by double digits....

[cocknocker]

Matter of fact, I know what I'll do. To appease everyone here from having heart burn, I will let my Nets pick go, and instead concentrate on my other two selections for the day:

Charlotte-5.5
Houston+4.5

I will watch Denver/New Jersey and see what happens. No matter what I am taking Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are hot ats right now and will make a strong showing over the last part of the year as they are going to be given lines that they will cover with ease. Portland mayhave their number tonight though...

[BrandonLaz]

denver f#ck#rs haven't covered for 4 games already...sacramento lost SU, houston lost SU, okc lost ATS, lac lost ATS (i had it at 13.5)...this team is overrated...billups alone wont help this team...denver f#ck#rs!!!

The public just keeps pushing that line up on the game as well. I liked the play already at +9.5 now it is up to +11.5. I will be riding with the Nets in this game as well pho3

[cocknocker]

No play on the Nets today for me! I just updated the front page!

[OperatorX]

Raptors are pretty streaky.. I think they will probably win outright tonight..

[Tennispro]

2 more plays i like Raptors-Bobcats Over 194 and Rockets-Hornets Under 182

[RoagBettor]

Teaser #2 locked in (always 3 teams/8 pts):

POR/MEM under 196
HOU/NO under 190.5
DEN -5

[RoagBettor]

Denver might be easy at -9.5 but not at -13

[peterpan19]

ok guys final plays for today:
7pt teaser, 4 teams: Char -.5, mem +13, Hou +10.5 and NJ +20 (pays +140)
Hou +4 (bought a half point, -113)
mem +6 (-105)
Spurs -1.5 1st qtr

waiting for Char to go to -7 on my book...

Gl everybody

[Dexter]

No play on the Nets today for me! I just updated the front page!

nice - reminds me of your sharp cancel of port yesterday.

[jaymac82980]

Im starting to like the over for the raptors bobkittens game

[repski]

CK,
your Citigroup is having a GREAT day!

[Dexter]

booked-

nuggets -13 (big)

[Dexter]

Im starting to like the over for the raptors bobkittens game

u have over last night gs/phx?

[jaymac82980]

i took the 2nd half over.

and i got smoked on gsw -1

[vassman86]

u have over last night gs/phx?

Games like that don't come by often! An absolute bettor's gem. 1st Q over, 1st Half over, over for the game, wish I got in on the second half over as well.

[repski]

my 1st round possible upsets

Sienna +3
Miss St. +5
Mayland +2
Michigan +5
Temple +5
WKU +5
Butler +2
VCU +7

[suckatmyjob]

anyone else do their bracket yet....looks to me like a Final 4 possibility of just Big East teams

on with the plays

OKC -5
Over 194 TOR/CHA
Over 182 new orleans/Houston

other leans
Toronto +7.5
Portland -6

[solobass]

adding credence to CK's thoughts from earlier i booked the

Nets +13

hey it is what it is.

[cocknocker]

CK,
your Citigroup is having a GREAT day!

Oh don't I know it! It's not everywhere that you can get a stock tip like that. Now hang onto them for a month or so and then skim the cream off of the top! And just think, I got them at less than a dollar a share, and got 6 grand worth.

[repski]

anyone else do their bracket yet....looks to me like a Final 4 possibility of just Big East teams

on with the plays

OKC -5
Over 194 TOR/CHA
Over 182 new orleans/Houston

other leans
Toronto +7.5
Portland -6

my
elite eight..subject to change...
Louisville,WVU,Miss St.(or Uconn),Memphis??,Pitt,(Duke/Nova),NC,Syracuse...final 4

Louisville,Memphis,Pitt,Syracuse

[repski]

Oh don't I know it! It's not everywhere that you can get a stock tip like that. Now hang onto them for a month or so and then skim the cream off of the top! And just think, I got them at less than a dollar a share, and got 6 grand worth.

I'd take some profit soon...market topping short term...remember the adage:

"Pigs get fat...Hogs get slaughtered!"