Freeze 2013/14 NBA Picks

[freeeze]

Starting this thread, so I can finally start keeping track of my NBA record. I'm having a really good season so far and I intend to make it an even better one.

My bets are usually in the range of 1-3 units, with 1 unit being my regular play and 3 units being a rarely big play. When I have the time, I'll try to make write ups for each bet. All kinds of discussion about NBA and betting are welcome here.
Let's go

[freeeze]

First play :

Memphis +5 -110 @ Portland 1.65u to win 1.5

First off, Portland is starting to come back down to earth and they're on their 6th game in 9 nights. That's quite a lot of minutes for a team heavily reliant on their starters and being fatigued isn't great when you face a physical team like Memphis. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are imo a much better team than their record suggests. They have been playing great as of late and are coming off back to back wins vs Houston. They're still out of the playoffs in the stacked West and they know they'll have to give full effort every game to make it, so no let down spot here.

Matchups are good for the Griz too. Conley, imo, is a better all around PG than Lillard, Aldridge and Z-Bo are both good scorers and average defenders and I'm thinking they cancel each other out. Marc Gasol is still finding his form after that injury but I expect him to dominate at the center position over Lopez.

All in all, I'm expecting a good effort and possibly an upset from the Grizzlies. Would've bet the ML too, but Portland always make it close in the end and you never know who's going to win with that, but I'm very comfortable with the spread.

I'm likely not playing anything else tonight, good luck to everyone with their bets.

[BigWangDangALang]

I like the angle. Just in game angle screams other way. Portland lights out from 3 and makes FTs. Grizzlies give up FTs and don't defend 3 pt line very well. I see Grizz covering if they can own the boards, which they certainly can with Blazers tired. BOL on your bet.

[freeeze]

Well, actually, Memphis is above average - 13th in opponent 3pt percentage and 10th in opponent free throws made per game. If they hadn't started the season playing horrible defense, they'd probably be top 10 in both categories. So, I'm not too worried about that. A statistical angle that might have a bigger impact on the game is, imo, Points in the Paint - Memphis are 6th in points in the paint scored per game, while Blazers are 27th in PIP allowed.

[BigWangDangALang]

I got two teams stats mixed up somehow. When I viewed Memphis real stats, I changed my play.

[freeeze]

I got two teams stats mixed up somehow. When I viewed Memphis real stats, I changed my play.

Nice to hear you didn't lose any money on the game.

Memphis played great defensively, running Portland off the 3pt line(along with their surprisingly good shooting) was the major reason for the blowout win.

Record: 1-0-0 +1.5u

Liking Dallas for tonight, but will probably wait for news on Harden. Also, forgot to add, all my bets are made at Pinnacle, unless otherwise noted.

[freeeze]

For tonight :

Washington +8 -113 @ LA Clippers
1.41u to win 1.25 on the spread and 0.25u to win 0.81 on the ML at +322.

This is a prime example of a spot play in the NBA. LAC coming off a 7 game east coast road trip, in which they were very successful, back home for one game and on the next night playing @ Golden State, a game they are likely to be looking ahead at. Clips will be cruising tonight, likely one of those low energy nights for them. Wizards, on the other hand, are having another chance at getting above .500(they've lost like 4 of these so far in the season). Those embarrassing losses should be on their minds and I expect full effort from them to keep it a close till the end with a chance for a win.

Still waiting for news on Harden to decide on that Dallas bet.

[ChicagoCover]

Best of luck, I like that Washington bet!

[freeeze]

Well, it was a close game ... until the Wizards fell apart in the last 3 minutes of the game. Temple had no business taking that layup that led to the cover. It was a lucky win, but I'll take it. Also, glad I stayed off the Mavs.

On the day: 1-1-0 +1u
Total Record : 2-1-0 +2.5u

Today's card looks interesting. Leaning Suns 1st half and Golden State right now.

[freeeze]

Lakers -3 -102 vs Bobcats
1.02u to win 1

Utah +6 -105 vs Golden State
1.05u to win 1

Could add more units to both plays later. Not making write ups tonight, sorry.

[freeeze]

Adding 0.52u to win 0.5 on the Lakers - 3.5 -103

[freeeze]

On the night: 1-1-0 -0.54u
Total Record: 3-2-0 +1.96u

Hate losing nights even if it is only a half unit loss. On to tomorrow's card.

[ace_202]

You lost the Lakers play, add that to your record?

[freeeze]

I added half a unit to the first LA play, just on a different line. Why should that be counted as two separate plays ?

[freeeze]

Celtics -6 -110 vs Orlando 1.1u to win 1

[freeeze]

Record: 4-2-0 +2.96u

Tonight's bets:

Brooklyn -11 -107 vs Philly 1.34u to win 1.25

Revenge for the Nets after the buzzer beater loss the last time the teams met. Nets off a couple of bad losses, too, seeing them bring extra motivation here to secure the win and make it a blowout. Damn, line moved to -9 while I was writing this up, hopefully it's a big time blowout and it doesn't matter.

Denver +1.5 -104 vs LAC 1.30u to win 1.25

Clippers in a rough spot, having played 11 games in 18 days with travel before and after every one of them. I see them struggling to keep up with the fast paced Denver team, who have Lawson back, at the altitude.Clips have a look ahead to Miami and a long home stand, too.

[freeeze]

Last night: 1-1-0 -0.09u
Total Record: 5-3-0 +2.87u

Tonight's bet:

Hawks +3 -102 vs Indy

Pacers have been off lately and they're on their 3rd game in 4 nights, second game of a b2b - the Hawks will exploit that by playing uptempo, which suits them well. ATL have good ball movement and that should lead to solid long range scoring night. Expecting Millsap to have a good game. Would have bet more if the Pacers' starters weren't rested a bit last night.

[freeeze]

Oh well, guess I was due to be on the wrong end of these close games.

Last night: 0-1-0 -1.02 ( it was a 1 unit play, I somehow forgot to type it in)
Record: 5-4-0 +1.85

Lots of interesting games tonight. Already locked in my first play, looking into a few others.

Mavs +4 -106 @ Memphis 1.59u to win 1.5

Really like Dallas here, might add more later.

[freeeze]

Adding:

Spurs -1 -108 @ Washington 1.62u to win 1.50

[freeeze]

Solid night. Should have followed my lean on the Magic.

Last night: 2-0-0 +3u
Total Record: 7-4-0 +4.85u

Might make a play on GS tonight vs the Bulls. Kinda worried about their bench blowing a lead late, but Chicago have a 7-8 man rotation, so it shouldn't be that big of a deal. Spurs in a tough spot after last night's double overtime, it's looking likely they rest Duncan and Parker here.

[freeeze]

Golden State -8 -110 vs Chicago 1.1u to win 1

[freeeze]

Last night: 1-0-0 +1u
Total record: 8-4-0 +5.85u

Tonight playing:

Raptors +5.5 -108 @ Clippers 1.62u to win 1.50

Like this play a lot, will possibly add more later. Looking into Pacers, liked New York when they were dogs but now that they're -2 I'm not betting it.

[freeeze]

Pistons -2 -108 vs Brooklyn 1.08u to win 1u

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Bulgarian Basketball League(bet's available at Pinny)

Cherno More -2.5 -108 @ Yambol 1.08u to win 1u

Will update record later.

[freeeze]

That last bet was awful. Should stick to the NBA.

Last night: 1-1-0 -0.62u
Today: 0-1-0 -1.08u
Total Record: 9-6-0 +4.15u

Spurs -4.5 -107 @ Charlotte 1.61u to win 1.50u

Cats of a very successful road trip and a big win vs GState . Spurs for some reason are playing their asses off for a high seed in the playoffs and generally do well vs mediocre teams. Tonight should be no exception after that loss against BKN. San Antonio should gain an advantage via outside shooting and rested Duncan will make life tough on Al Jefferson, who's been Bobcats' best player by far in their recent stretch of good play.

[freeeze]

Sunday: 0-2-0 -2.69u
Total Record: 9-7-0 +2.54u

Most likely playing Pistons today, will wait to see line movement, though.

[freeeze]

Pelicans +7 -106 @ Toronto 1.06u to win 1u

Pistons +3 -107 vs Spurs 1.61 to win 1.50u

[freeeze]

Yesterday: 1-0-1 +1.50u
Record: 10-7-1 +4.04u

Tonight's bets:

Wiz +4.5 -105 @ Memphis 1.58u to win 1.50u

Don't like the Grizzlies without Conley. Wash a bad match up for them and are playing well lately.

Had leans on Hawks, Suns and Bobcats. Will take it conservatively and not play either one, hopefully I've made the right decision.

[freeeze]

Yesterday: 1-0-0 +1.5u
Record: 11-7-1 +5.54u

Today taking Dallas @ Indy
0.84u to win 0.8 on +9 @ -105
0.2u to win 0.78u on the ML @ +390

Mavs should bring out a much better effort after that awful game last night and I think they are a bad match up for Indy. Won't be surprised if George is already looking ahead to the all star game and turns in a bad performance.

Looking into a couple of other games, leaning TWolves for now.

[freeeze]

TWolves -6.5 -109 vs Denver 1.09u to win 1u

If this Minnesota team has any drive and determination to get in the playoffs now is the time to show it, facing an injury depleted Nuggets team. Lawson is huge for Denver and I believe they are much worse without him. No ball handlers on the Nuggets, should result in quite a few turnovers forced by Minny and I see no one capable of guarding Love.

[freeeze]

Nice night, love it that all of my predictions came through.

Yesterday: 3-0-0 +2.58u
Record: 14-7-1 +8.12u

With Boozer back and apparently in the starting lineup the Bulls look like a good fade tonight.

[freeeze]

Brooklyn +3.5 -109 and ML +138 @ Chicago

1.09 to win 1u on +3.5
0.5u to win 0.69u on the ML

Didn't get the best possible line, hopefully it doesn't matter. Boozer likely to play tonight, if he does he will disrupt the good rhythm the Bulls were in without him. Brooklyn are on the second leg of a B2B but none of their main guys' played more than 30 minutes, so they shouldn't be too tired and they have a bit of a revenge game here after getting blasted on Christmas day (and even from last year's playoffs if they still remember that though) .

[freeeze]

Yesterday: 0-1-0 -1.59u
Record: 14-8-1 +6.53u

Bad bet last night, didn't expect a no show from Brooklyn in that game. Staying away from anything all star related the next few days.

[freeeze]

Bulgarian Basketball League

Beroe +24 -104 @ Balkan 1.04u to win 1u

[freeeze]

Final Score:

Balkan 86 - 70 Beroe

Today: 1-0-0 +1u
Record: 15-8-1 +7.53u

It's almost a lock that the EC wins the dunk contest, but there's no way I'm putting real money on that shit.