Denver -9, ml -475 very risky

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  • solman
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-05-12
    • 264

    #1
    Denver -9, ml -475 very risky
    I am taking Philadelphia ML 15x +375. This looks like a trap to me with Denver. How can you back a team that has lost four straight at home and seven in a row overall with -475 and -9. OK I agree that Philadelphia looks dismal also but they just beat Lakers on Dec 29 and recently got back their confidence with that win. Cant give many positive stats about Philadelphia and comments will come in such as the worst defensive team in the league, 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road. Sorry but I just cant back a Denver team at these high $ with that much risk. Win/loss records looks variably different but side by side these teams are very similar.I would rather take my chances with Philadelphia considering the possible payoff. Same thing happened with Milwaukee in Wash, had Milwaukee +425 ML road win Vs. Washington and they won in OT with a dismal record also. These ML/spreads are inflated and the books are playing tricks. Sorry I wont fall for it. Play at your own risk. This is merely my opinion. GL with your plays.
  • flyingcarbs
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-28-13
    • 278

    #2
    I agree, take a look at the Kings game last night, same situation and underdog won.
    Comment
    • ParlayBricker
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-10-12
      • 414

      #3
      Philly scores a good % of there points in the paint. Denver very solid at not allowing points in the paint. I agree that the line is to heavy probably should be -6 or so , but that's just them shading because publics opinion on Philly being atrocious this year. Denver will win this game,though it may be closer than most people think.
      Comment
      • ShogunRua
        SBR MVP
        • 12-23-09
        • 4668

        #4
        Originally posted by solman
        I am taking Philadelphia ML 15x +375. This looks like a trap to me with Denver. How can you back a team that has lost four straight at home and seven in a row overall with -475 and -9. OK I agree that Philadelphia looks dismal also but they just beat Lakers on Dec 29 and recently got back their confidence with that win. Cant give many positive stats about Philadelphia and comments will come in such as the worst defensive team in the league, 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road. Sorry but I just cant back a Denver team at these high $ with that much risk. Win/loss records looks variably different but side by side these teams are very similar.I would rather take my chances with Philadelphia considering the possible payoff. Same thing happened with Milwaukee in Wash, had Milwaukee +425 ML road win Vs. Washington and they won in OT with a dismal record also. These ML/spreads are inflated and the books are playing tricks. Sorry I wont fall for it. Play at your own risk. This is merely my opinion. GL with your plays.
        All the more reason to take Denver tonight. Good luck with your '15x ML' play.
        Comment
        • R.P. McMurphy
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 06-15-12
          • 9654

          #5
          Shotgun is right I laid the 9...and if anyone believes in Vegas conspiracy the pub is all ov Philly Ml at a pretty high clip. Dead $$ Ml backers dead $$ gl tho! Haha
          Comment
          • LRKontroll
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-20-10
            • 245

            #6
            nice review
            Comment
            • SEKTAUR
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-04-11
              • 802

              #7
              good call
              Comment
              • IllyPhilly[DOC]
                SBR MVP
                • 07-18-10
                • 2512

                #8
                Man monster call! Wish i checked this post out today. I was on denver-9 and over 213. I would have stayed away from the nuggets -9 and put a little on Sixers ML. SMH mad i missed this! Sixerse +400 great call.
                Comment
                • solman
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 03-05-12
                  • 264

                  #9
                  Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                  Shotgun is right I laid the 9...and if anyone believes in Vegas conspiracy the pub is all ov Philly Ml at a pretty high clip. Dead $$ Ml backers dead $$ gl tho! Haha
                  My "dead" ML money is alive!!!!!!! Come on tell me you didn't take Denver at -9? Lucky just like Milwaukee at Wash right a few weeks ago? You gotta be in the know I guess.
                  Comment
                  • solman
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 03-05-12
                    • 264

                    #10
                    Originally posted by ShogunRua
                    All the more reason to take Denver tonight. Good luck with your '15x ML' play.
                    Guess one of us was right..
                    Comment
                    • solman
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 03-05-12
                      • 264

                      #11
                      Originally posted by SEKTAUR
                      good call
                      I am guessing you cashed
                      Comment
                      • solman
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-05-12
                        • 264

                        #12
                        Originally posted by IllyPhilly[DOC]
                        Man monster call! Wish i checked this post out today. I was on denver-9 and over 213. I would have stayed away from the nuggets -9 and put a little on Sixers ML. SMH mad i missed this! Sixerse +400 great call.
                        Come on a Philly guy not on Philly? No I know they looked terrible on paper/win loss record but against Denver they had a great chance after the confidence building win over Lakers. When I see these inflated ML/spreads I smell BS. Gotta study and be lucky also.
                        Comment
                        • Ant2nv
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-09-08
                          • 220

                          #13
                          I was on denver -9..for the reason they are on a bad run and need a big win for confidence, playing worst team at home..buy damn denver really do suck lol..good call!!
                          Comment
                          • solman
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 03-05-12
                            • 264

                            #14
                            01/01 03:26 PM 145XXXXXX-X 1 Straight Won $1,500.88 $5,628.29 <input name="m$m$WagerSummary1$WagerList1$rptWa gers$ctl01$txtToWin" id="m_m_WagerSummary1_WagerList1_rptWage rs_ctl01_txtToWin" type="hidden" value="5628.3"> Basketball NBA - Philadelphia 76ers +375 for Game (Won)
                            Comment
                            • killacappapilla
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-01-13
                              • 881

                              #15
                              gj, i took them at half lol

                              $435.62 $281.05 Win Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets Money Line 76ERS PK
                              Comment
                              • ShogunRua
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-23-09
                                • 4668

                                #16
                                I was on Denver -9.

                                Nice call solman.
                                Comment
                                • YINSANITY
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 12-21-13
                                  • 94

                                  #17
                                  very nice! cashed in on 76ers as well!
                                  Comment
                                  • IllyPhilly[DOC]
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-18-10
                                    • 2512

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by solman
                                    Come on a Philly guy not on Philly? No I know they looked terrible on paper/win loss record but against Denver they had a great chance after the confidence building win over Lakers. When I see these inflated ML/spreads I smell BS. Gotta study and be lucky also.
                                    I'm horrible at calling Sixers/Eagles games on or against them LOL
                                    Comment
                                    • IllyPhilly[DOC]
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-18-10
                                      • 2512

                                      #19
                                      Try Sixers +8 vs Kings tomorrow or ML? He he.
                                      Comment
                                      • flyingcarbs
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 12-28-13
                                        • 278

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by IllyPhilly[DOC]
                                        Try Sixers +8 vs Kings tomorrow or ML? He he.
                                        I'd stay away from that game, both teams are "underdogs" that end up biting.
                                        Comment
                                        • Mocknroll
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-26-12
                                          • 577

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ShogunRua
                                          I was on Denver -9.

                                          Nice call solman.
                                          I like this.
                                          Not that you lost, but that you called the play out before the game, checked in and congratulated the guy and stated you were on the other side after the result. Most would just disappear from the thread.
                                          Classy. Well done!
                                          Comment
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