NBA - Monday, 12/16/13

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Play Monday

Jazz +13 -110 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 64-91-4, -28.50

[SiMON2g]

what's your reasons for this play LT

[LT Profits]

what's your reasons for this play LT

Jazz have been playing better lately, won two straight and three out of four on the road while averaging more than 108 points in those games. The Heat are notorious for taking nights off during the regular season when they know they are better than the other team unless they are in the midst of a 20+ game winning streak like last year, and they are only 2-5 ATS last seven games after 20-point swing spanning third/fourth quarters vs. Cleveland Saturday, going from up 16 to down 4 before needing to pick it up to win by 7 (loss ATS).

[Jikos]

Jazz have been playing better lately, won two straight and three out of four on the road while averaging more than 108 points in those games. The Heat are notorious for taking nights off during the regular season when they know they are better than the other team unless they are in the midst of a 20+ game winning streak like last year, and they are only 2-5 ATS last seven games after 20-point swing spanning third/fourth quarters vs. Cleveland Saturday, going from up 16 to down 4 before needing to pick it up to win by 7 (loss ATS).

Alright, good points, the jazz are capable of keeping a game close, we have seen that. In my opinion that they have produced a few impressive games recently is the only reason books are trying to sell them at +12-13 or this spread would be several points higher. However, consider these things. Who is more likely to give up in this game? One team knows they are probably the worst in the league while the other is at home and does not. I feel like the jazz keeping this game close is a possibility but a much lesser possibility. The true spread for this game should be around 15 IMHO. The books job is to sell both sides evenly, not to gamble, so while their numbers and algorithms may give them a different number than the one you see at your book they also have formulas to figure how they will make the most off juice (by balancing the money) by predicting how their customers will react to certain lines (they have all the information to find this out). Yes Miami has not impressed so far this year, and yes Utah has exceeded their own expectations, but that is exactly why the play with the most value here is Miami -12.5.

[dirtycash66]

Miami never covers double digit spreads at home...take the point

[LT Profits]

Miami never covers double digit spreads at home...take the point

Never say "never". But Miami is 12-19 ATS as double-digit home fave since the start of last year, and I'd venture to guess that some of those wins (I'll check later is I remember) came during the winning streak when they were actually playing with a mission.

[LT Profits]

OK I just checked and they were even 3-6 ATS as double-digit home faves even during the 27-game winning streak, so go ahead and take the 12-19 at fave value (61.3% fade). I know short-term shit like that means nothing but the logic behind it is sound as the Heat often get bored or lazy during the year waiting for the "real" season to start. In fact they are only around .500 overall ATS during regular season since LeBron arrived.

[LT Profits]

SHIT I forgot to mention perhaps the most important point of all...

Indiana at Miami Wednesday

[boydako13]

Yup LT..they'll take it easy against utah to prepare for wednesday's game against pacers

[mtofell]

I hate MIA this year as they relate to betting. It all just depends on what they feel like doing. They have the talent to blow out UTA by 30 but may only feel like beating them by 3 or even losing. You can see in their body language that they feel the regular season is just a waste of time. They'll start caring around March in preparation for the playoffs.

[aireent777]

When did the Jazz covered the spread in Miami? Playing Indy on Wednesday has nothing to do with this game.

[LT Profits]

When did the Jazz covered the spread in Miami? Playing Indy on Wednesday has nothing to do with this game.

It seems you have it backwards. What Utah has done in past years in Miami has nothing to do with this game, whereas facing Indiana next game is significant.

[44 Mag]

It seems you have it backwards. What Utah has done in past years in Miami has nothing to do with this game, whereas facing Indiana next game is significant.

LT, you can add that in their last 5 AWAY games Utah has been averaging 101.6 PPG

[aireent777]

It seems you have it backwards. What Utah has done in past years in Miami has nothing to do with this game, whereas facing Indiana next game is significant.

So what you're saying is.. Utah and Detroit will likely cover their spreads tonight because Miami and Indy are looking ahead with their game on Wednesday?

[LT Profits]

LT, you can add that in their last 5 AWAY games Utah has been averaging 101.6 PPG

Well I mentioned 108 over last four. Point is if Miami is lax defensively, Jazz seem more capable of taking advantage now that they did earlier in the season.

[LT Profits]

So what you're saying is.. Utah and Detroit will likely cover their spreads tonight because Miami and Indy are looking ahead with their game on Wednesday?

I am a little hesitant with Detroit although gun to my head, I lean that way yes. Thing that's holding me back there is Pacers had their letdown game when they faced Charlotte Friday after first meeting with the Heat, and Indiana is not a team like Miami that routinely takes nights off. Not sure Pacers want to enter rematch off of two sub-par games in a row, whereas Heat don't particularly care, they seem better at just flipping the switch whenever they need to. All of that said, I wouldn't knock a play on Detroit.

[Seto]

OK I just checked and they were even 3-6 ATS as double-digit home faves even during the 27-game winning streak, so go ahead and take the 12-19 at fave value (61.3% fade). I know short-term shit like that means nothing but the logic behind it is sound as the Heat often get bored or lazy during the year waiting for the "real" season to start. In fact they are only around .500 overall ATS during regular season since LeBron arrived.

That winning streak was actually more notorious for crazy comebacks than for blowout wins. I think one of the only spots where the Heat could be a good play as a DD home fave is off a bad loss.

[LT Profits]

I think one of the only spots where the Heat could be a good play as a DD home fave is off a bad loss.

So it's a good thing they re-rallied vs. Cleveland then.

[Seto]

So it's a good thing they re-rallied vs. Cleveland then.

[LT Profits]

NBA Addition

2 NBA Play Monday

Jazz +13 -110 (Bookmaker)
Spurs -3 -103 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

NBA Triple Play Monday

3 NBA Plays Monday

76ers +9 -105 (5 Dimes)
Jazz +13 -110 (Bookmaker)
Spurs -3 -103 (5 Dimes)


NBA Card Complete

[dirtycash66]

Wow jazz completly gave up in the 2nd half......forking losers

[MayanKing]

Nice Utah ML win for me on the 1H

[GoBlue77]

betting bad teams gets you down 30 units like you are

[TheMLBKing]

the only question left is whether LT will go 0-3 tonight

[dirtycash66]

Rough night

[CaVengo]

Rough night

Nothing new in here!

[LT Profits]

Only thing I could say is thank God for all the other sports on Monday, I actually salvaged a 3-3 night. Still, yeah, NBA has been a horror show and I am not quite sure why. Oh well, if you guys want to start fading me, go right ahead because I will continue to post plays.

[Jikos]

hitting 41% either way is actually pretty impressive either way. from your analysis on the utah game i would say that the things you look for are very conditional. remember you can't predict the future, that's not what a handicapper does. you shouldn't be looking for teams that "should" cover, but teams that are getting good numbers. winners will take care of themselves, you can't go out and find them.