Best Time for Betting on the Scoreline ???

Kevin Garnett · 11-30-13, 03:02 PM

Nobody can help?

chefko · 11-30-13, 03:30 PM

thats what nobody knows or if he knows it he wont tell you.
because if you beat the closing line, you are essentially a long term winner.
the really good guys beat the line far more often than not.
you should do like this:

example:
check opening lines. you think its too low, but it. over 200,0
line moves up during time. over 202,5.
you "won" 2,5 points, thats your value over time....

Potentate · 11-30-13, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Kevin Garnett

Hi guys, when is it the best time for betting on the total line? The total line changes hours before the game starts with a few or some points more/less against the opening line so I have wondered what is the best time to make the right bet (over/under) on the right total line. Hope someone can help.

Important: I only want know the best total line "before the game start" so please no talk about live total betting!!!

I think it depends on a few things like how you cap the game and how you anticipate the line moving.

new era · 11-30-13, 03:48 PM

depends what line u want.... what kind of dumb question is this?

PerfectGrape · 11-30-13, 04:07 PM

Not a dumb question at all. Maybe there is a certain time of the day where there is key line movement? Not saying some random time at 10:34 am is the magical time to bet. Depending on your book, reduced juice lines are released morning of game day so a -105 is better than -110, so if you don't think the line will move you might as well wait til morning. The line often moves in both directions, so trying to see when it bottoms out and starts to move up is a good time if you are betting the over/vice versa for under. Often very close to game time is pretty accurate, so your best chance for getting a +ev line and beating the closer is sometime in the morning or early afternoon if I had to guess with nothing to support that data wise. Maybe someone with a database of lines can calculate an hour or time period on average that offers the most value from the closer. Interesting question though, it is hard to figure out when to choose the right time.

Kevin Garnett · 11-30-13, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by chefko

thats what nobody knows or if he knows it he wont tell you.
because if you beat the closing line, you are essentially a long term winner.
the really good guys beat the line far more often than not.
you should do like this:

example:
check opening lines. you think its too low, but it. over 200,0
line moves up during time. over 202,5.
you "won" 2,5 points, thats your value over time....

Then I should bet under if the line has moved up a few points? What I need is an average line to compare it with my total stats. If I calculate for example in the game Denver-Chicago a total average of 198 pts and the line shows 194 then I would bet on over 194. I am not sure if this makes sense over a long time still testing but I try to calculate my own totals system.

A few questions:
How will the opening line calculated?
After which stats do you bet on totals or are needed to compare after your opinion? (for example season form, head to head)

bjb7223 · 11-30-13, 07:23 PM

Kevin no one knows. If we did we would all be in the French Isles smoking joints and sipping on Johnny Walker.

JR007 · 11-30-13, 08:39 PM

you need a forecastting model

Kevin Garnett · 11-30-13, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by bjb7223

Kevin no one knows. If we did we would all be in the French Isles smoking joints and sipping on Johnny Walker.

I mean more the trend time not the best time. What we know is that the trend time is surely not just before the game or 12 hours back. I need an average total line because I want compare it with my total stats. The best line is there only second for me. I could take the average line for comparison that could be if we have a opening line 194 and a total line 200 = 197.

My question is so on which line I should bet if I want bet after total stats? If the totals stats say 198 and the opening line is 196 and the total line is 200. On which line I should bet?

Kevin Garnett · 11-30-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by JR007

you need a forecastting model

Yes do you have one?

HardCore · 12-02-13, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Kevin Garnett

Hi guys, when is it the best time for betting on the total line? The total line changes hours before the game starts with a few or some points more/less against the opening line so I have wondered what is the best time to make the right bet (over/under) on the right total line. Hope someone can help.

Important: I only want know the best total line "before the game start" so please no talk about live total betting!!!

Honestly Kev i make all my plays the night before. The only time i wait is when im against the public and i know they will inflate a number bigger or lower than it should be, other than that any bet you make after like 12pm pacific which is 3pm eastern is a public influenced line. I beleave in my numbers and know wtf a line or total should be so i just bet them the night before. I hope this helps.

Kevin Garnett · 12-04-13, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by HardCore

Honestly Kev i make all my plays the night before. The only time i wait is when im against the public and i know they will inflate a number bigger or lower than it should be, other than that any bet you make after like 12pm pacific which is 3pm eastern is a public influenced line. I beleave in my numbers and know wtf a line or total should be so i just bet them the night before. I hope this helps.

Thanks. Where do you compare your lines before you make your bets? Maybe here at sbr odds? And which bookies have trustable lines? I don't know it. I think the serious bookie ranking is like sbr has quoted it from left to right 5dimes, pinnacle, bookmaker etc. But I think like you have said it depends more when you make your bets not which bookie you take for comparison.