2013-14 NBA picks

**Seto** · 11-12-13, 09:33 PM

To be fair to them, as of now, they are a middle-of the pack defensive team as far as stats go (opp fg%). Don't expect that to last though. Hope I'm wrong.

**miss_sbets** · 11-12-13, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by Seto

A team that starts Calderon, Ellis and Dirk is typically going to be pretty bad defensively..

A similar team did enough to beat Miami in the NBA Finals. Same coach.

**Seto** · 11-12-13, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by miss_sbets

A similar team did enough to beat Miami in the NBA Finals. Same coach.

How are Jason Kidd and Jose Calderon similar on defense

I'm a Mavs fan btw

**miss_sbets** · 11-12-13, 10:16 PM

I'm not trying to pretend to be an expert. All I'm trying to say that the notion of 'swtching the channel from NBA TV because Calderon sucks on defense and the mavs are *incapable of* playing hard and therefore the wizards are simply not doing what they're paid millions of dollars to do'.... it's ridiculous. That's the impression I got from some of his earlier posts too: most NBA guys are overpaid hicks not worth the price of admission.

I'm sure there's more to it and was simply wondering where this BIG disgust really comes from.

**No coincidences** · 11-12-13, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by miss_sbets

And your assessment of Dallas as a worse defensive team is based on what exactly?

Umm, watching them?

**No coincidences** · 11-12-13, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by miss_sbets

A similar team did enough to beat Miami in the NBA Finals. Same coach.

To say this Dallas team is remotely "similar" to the one that won a ring is absurd in my mind.

**amrit** · 11-12-13, 10:23 PM

Wizards just give up way too many second chance points. They do it every single game, can't secure rebounds for whatever reason. Hopefully all those points don't cost us tonight.

**No coincidences** · 11-12-13, 10:31 PM

LAL +4 (2.2U to win 2)

**No coincidences** · 11-12-13, 10:54 PM

f\*\*k me.

**NJN86** · 11-12-13, 11:08 PM

Had Wizards/Mavs O206 and they score 33 points in the 4th to blow it. I feel your pain no coin...

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 01:12 AM

25-17, +7.25U thread

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by NJN86

Had Wizards/Mavs O206 and they score 33 points in the 4th to blow it. I feel your pain no coin...

"Interesting" fourth quarter to say the least.

It's not like these two teams were playing defense.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 02:40 AM

LAC -3.5 (2.2U to win 2)
WAS +10 (2.2U to win 2)

**SourCereal** · 11-13-13, 04:28 AM

bad beat

Originally posted by NJN86

Had Wizards/Mavs O206 and they score 33 points in the 4th to blow it. I feel your pain no coin...

bad beat man....i had that same over.........

**Ace_of_Spades** · 11-13-13, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by NJN86

Had Wizards/Mavs O206 and they score 33 points in the 4th to blow it. I feel your pain no coin...

Been there before. On both occasions with a 60 + qtr.

**NJN86** · 11-13-13, 07:33 AM

Glad to see you sticking with the Wiz despite that horrid showing last night. I do think they are underrated this year. GL.

**RavensFan2k3** · 11-13-13, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

LAC -3.5 (2.2U to win 2)
WAS +10 (2.2U to win 2)

Hmm

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

LAC -3.5 (2.2U to win 2)
WAS +10 (2.2U to win 2)

CLE +8.5 (2.2U to win 2)

**playoffhero12** · 11-13-13, 06:20 PM

Go pack Go!

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

CLE +8.5 (2.2U to win 2)

Might be the worst "defense" I've seen from a team in any NBA game this season -- and that's saying a lot.

Cleveland isn't even pretending to get a stop in this game. T'Wolves might score 140.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 10:12 PM

Last three minutes of the third quarter for the Wizards:

3:09		57-60	Patty Mills misses 25-foot three point jumper
3:08	Martell Webster defensive rebound	57-60
2:56	John Wall misses 20-foot jumper	57-60
2:55		57-60	Manu Ginobili defensive rebound
2:46		57-62	Manu Ginobili makes two point shot
2:31	Marcin Gortat misses 19-foot jumper	57-62
2:30		57-62	Jeff Ayres defensive rebound
2:13		57-65	Marco Belinelli makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tiago Splitter assists)
1:51	Martell Webster misses 22-foot three point jumper	57-65
1:50		57-65	Manu Ginobili defensive rebound
1:44		57-68	Patty Mills makes three point jumper (Marco Belinelli assists)
1:24	John Wall misses 11-foot jumper	57-68
1:23		57-68	Tiago Splitter defensive rebound
1:19		57-68	Manu Ginobili misses 25-foot three point jumper
1:16	John Wall defensive rebound	57-68
0:59	John Wall misses 23-foot three point jumper	57-68
0:58	Martell Webster offensive rebound	57-68
0:49	Marcin Gortat misses 10-foot jumper	57-68
0:48	John Wall offensive rebound	57-68
0:47	Jeff Ayres blocks John Wall's layup	57-68
0:45		57-68	Manu Ginobili defensive rebound
0:39	Wizards 20 Sec. timeout
0:39		57-68	Boris Diaw enters the game for Tiago Splitter
0:39	Eric Maynor enters the game for John Wall	57-68
0:39	Glen Rice Jr. enters the game for Martell Webster	57-68
0:31		57-70	Manu Ginobili makes driving layup
0:11	Bradley Beal misses jumper	57-70
0:09	Jan Vesely misses tip shot	57-70
0:09	Jan Vesely offensive rebound	57-70
0:08		57-70	Boris Diaw defensive rebound
0:00		57-70	Bradley Beal blocks Manu Ginobili 's 25-foot three point jumper
0:00	Glen Rice Jr. defensive rebound	57-70
0:00	End of the 3rd Quarter

<ins id="splinks-40650">

"Professionals."

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**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 10:19 PM

Wizards were down 60-57 with 2:50 left in the third quarter.

Now it's 81-59 with 9 minutes left in the game.

I hate the NBA.

**miss_sbets** · 11-13-13, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Wizards were down 60-57 with 2:50 left in the third quarter.

Now it's 81-59 with 9 minutes left in the game.

I hate the NBA.

Bet the other side then.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by miss_sbets

Bet the other side then.

The "other side" of what?

**Rose'** · 11-13-13, 10:25 PM

I didnt learn my lesson yesterday

**tatddy** · 11-13-13, 10:27 PM

So you bet on horrible teams...then spend your time proving to yourself that they are horrible?

My god man make your plays then go read a book.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by tatddy

So you bet on horrible teams...then spend your time proving to yourself that they are horrible?

My god man make your plays then go read a book.

I'm stuck at work right now watching the plays unfold on my computer screen. It's like slow torture.

**Speedy88** · 11-13-13, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Wizards were down 60-57 with 2:50 left in the third quarter.

Now it's 81-59 with 9 minutes left in the game.

I hate the NBA.

NBA is tough man, especially early in the season. NBA is a game of runs. I'd love to see a stat for the average point swing in an NBA game. 15-20 points maybe? I just watched the Hawks go from an 8 pt lead to a 10 pt deficit in less than 10 minutes.

**No coincidences** · 11-13-13, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

NBA is tough man, especially early in the season. NBA is a game of runs. I'd love to see a stat for the average point swing in an NBA game. 15-20 points maybe? I just watched the Hawks go from an 8 pt lead to a 10 pt deficit in less than 10 minutes.

Didn't used to be such violent swings, back when guys actually knew how to play the game and respected it.

**Bdolan33** · 11-13-13, 10:40 PM

ive found betting any team that swings 10+ points from their original spread by the 1st quarter in live betting to be profitable.

**tatddy** · 11-13-13, 10:50 PM

So the best thing you could find to do on the whole Internet was watch play by play of worthless regular season nba games?

I'll be in Detroit this September. Gonna buy you a beer and reprogram your computers.

**oldshoebox72** · 11-13-13, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Didn't used to be such violent swings, back when guys actually knew how to play the game and respected it.

how long ago was you consider back? I do a lot of live-betting, and capitalized on huge swing like this all the time.
In last few years, sometime Laker, Boston, Heats, or OKC was a big favorite before game started, then they start out slowly sometime even down 20+, then next 2-3 minutes, you'll see they are back to even.

IMO basketball is a game of big swing. Put your wager in and check back when about couple minutes left in the game.

**miss_sbets** · 11-13-13, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by Bdolan33

ive found betting any team that swings 10+ points from their original spread by the 1st quarter in live betting to be profitable.

So would you bet Minnesota or Cleveland after 38-24 in the first?

**BigDeem5** · 11-14-13, 12:25 AM

The cavaliers can't win/cover on the road, they're putrid

**Goat Milk** · 11-14-13, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

NBA is tough man, especially early in the season. NBA is a game of runs. I'd love to see a stat for the average point swing in an NBA game. 15-20 points maybe? I just watched the Hawks go from an 8 pt lead to a 10 pt deficit in less than 10 minutes.

depends on type of better you are. guys that live basketball flourish at the beginning of the year because books overvalue and undervalue teams. they have no data to work with. books don't go off eye-tests. they don't go off matchup analysis or coaching schemes. they have complex models and linesmakers take a number of other things into consideration before setting a line. as the season progresses, books get a good sample size, enough data, and the lines start to get a lot sharper towards the middle of the year. i always dominate the beginning of the nba season. then will go through a couple rough spots in the middle of it. and clean up again during playoffs when books are using reg. season stats and think that they translate to playoff ball. no.