Pacers and Pistons lead Over/Under betting
Pacers and Pistons lead Over/Under betting
Though not as prevalent as standard spread wagers, moneylines and totals have their time and place for NBA bettors. Understanding the relationship between the spread and total for a given game is a must for the serious moneyline player. And it's imperative that totals bettors do more than just look at a couple of scoring numbers at the bottom of the stats pages.
The pointspread is far and away the most popular way of playing the betting odds in the NBA. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat; moneylines and totals have their place, and some teams are better than others at making them pay.
Archived moneyline stats aren’t standard fare in the NBA like they are in baseball, but Jay Edgar did some excellent research a couple years back and posted the results in our forum. You can use this as a very rough guide to help you decide whether to play the pointspread or the moneyline, but keep in mind that the relationship between the two changes slightly depending on the total for any specific game. A 10-point spread should be a more difficult cover for the favorite when the total is 180 points than when it’s 200 (therefore, the under-underdog parlay), but a straight-up win should have about the same expectancy level.
Speaking of those totals, here are the Top 5 Over and Under records after Monday’s action:
OVER
Indiana Pacers: 32-19-1
L.A. Lakers: 31-19
L.A. Clippers: 31-21
Toronto Raptors: 30-23
Chicago Bulls: 28-22-1
UNDER
Detroit Pistons: 28-20-1
Philadelphia 76ers: 28-20-2
Cleveland Cavaliers: 27-22
Charlotte Bobcats: 27-22-2
Orlando Magic: 27-23
Dallas Mavericks: 27-23
On the season, the Over has a slight advantage at 384-368, or 51.1 percent – not quite enough to make a profit. You can see that advantage in the Top 5 for either side, as the Pacers, Lakers and Clippers are the most profitable teams against the total, all three going over on a regular basis.
The novice bettor will handicap the total by going immediately to the stats page and seeing how many points per game each team scores and allows. As they say, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The New York Knicks are second to Indiana in the East in points for and against, but they’ve also got the under at 27-23. That’s because the Knicks offense isn’t nearly as good as the betting public believes – nor is the defense quite as appalling, although it’s close.
It’s critical when handicapping the total to look at the pace factor. Some teams move the ball up the court more quickly than others. Everybody knows the Knicks are fast, thanks to coach Mike D’Antoni and the “Seven Seconds or Less” approach that he brought with him from his days in Phoenix. But the Pacers are just as quick; both teams check in at 99.3 possessions per game – and with exactly the same turnover ratio of 23.8 percent, so that accounts for extra possessions “earned” by coughing up the ball more often. Only Don Nelson and the Golden State Warriors are faster at 100.3 possessions per game.
Most of the teams in the Under category are slowpokes – especially the Detroit Pistons, who check in at just 89.7 possessions per game. That’s second to the ironically named Portland Trail Blazers at 88.9. Since it takes two teams to play a basketball game, it follows that putting two of these halfcourt-style offenses on the same floor is more likely to produce a low score. Tuesday’s New Orleans-Memphis matchup was a prime example. The final was 85-80 for the Grizzlies, easily sliding below the posted total of an already low 186.
Once you get a sense of how many possessions a team will have during a game, you need to know how well a team does with them. The Knicks score a lot, but only because they have so many chances – they’re actually No. 17 in the league in offensive efficiency at 104.3 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are first at 111.6, and they also run the No. 5 fastest offense at 97.0 possessions per game. That’s the recipe for a ton of points.
Most of the Under teams are classic Eastern Conference defenders. The rebuilding Pistons aren’t as good at this as they used to be – they’re No. 12 in the NBA at 103.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. But their slow pace and sharp decline in offense (No. 21 in the league at 103.6 points/100 possessions) keep the under rolling in dough. Now that’s Detroit basketball, 2009 style.
Though not as prevalent as standard spread wagers, moneylines and totals have their time and place for NBA bettors. Understanding the relationship between the spread and total for a given game is a must for the serious moneyline player. And it's imperative that totals bettors do more than just look at a couple of scoring numbers at the bottom of the stats pages.
The pointspread is far and away the most popular way of playing the betting odds in the NBA. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat; moneylines and totals have their place, and some teams are better than others at making them pay.
Archived moneyline stats aren’t standard fare in the NBA like they are in baseball, but Jay Edgar did some excellent research a couple years back and posted the results in our forum. You can use this as a very rough guide to help you decide whether to play the pointspread or the moneyline, but keep in mind that the relationship between the two changes slightly depending on the total for any specific game. A 10-point spread should be a more difficult cover for the favorite when the total is 180 points than when it’s 200 (therefore, the under-underdog parlay), but a straight-up win should have about the same expectancy level.
Speaking of those totals, here are the Top 5 Over and Under records after Monday’s action:
OVER
Indiana Pacers: 32-19-1
L.A. Lakers: 31-19
L.A. Clippers: 31-21
Toronto Raptors: 30-23
Chicago Bulls: 28-22-1
UNDER
Detroit Pistons: 28-20-1
Philadelphia 76ers: 28-20-2
Cleveland Cavaliers: 27-22
Charlotte Bobcats: 27-22-2
Orlando Magic: 27-23
Dallas Mavericks: 27-23
On the season, the Over has a slight advantage at 384-368, or 51.1 percent – not quite enough to make a profit. You can see that advantage in the Top 5 for either side, as the Pacers, Lakers and Clippers are the most profitable teams against the total, all three going over on a regular basis.
The novice bettor will handicap the total by going immediately to the stats page and seeing how many points per game each team scores and allows. As they say, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The New York Knicks are second to Indiana in the East in points for and against, but they’ve also got the under at 27-23. That’s because the Knicks offense isn’t nearly as good as the betting public believes – nor is the defense quite as appalling, although it’s close.
It’s critical when handicapping the total to look at the pace factor. Some teams move the ball up the court more quickly than others. Everybody knows the Knicks are fast, thanks to coach Mike D’Antoni and the “Seven Seconds or Less” approach that he brought with him from his days in Phoenix. But the Pacers are just as quick; both teams check in at 99.3 possessions per game – and with exactly the same turnover ratio of 23.8 percent, so that accounts for extra possessions “earned” by coughing up the ball more often. Only Don Nelson and the Golden State Warriors are faster at 100.3 possessions per game.
Most of the teams in the Under category are slowpokes – especially the Detroit Pistons, who check in at just 89.7 possessions per game. That’s second to the ironically named Portland Trail Blazers at 88.9. Since it takes two teams to play a basketball game, it follows that putting two of these halfcourt-style offenses on the same floor is more likely to produce a low score. Tuesday’s New Orleans-Memphis matchup was a prime example. The final was 85-80 for the Grizzlies, easily sliding below the posted total of an already low 186.
Once you get a sense of how many possessions a team will have during a game, you need to know how well a team does with them. The Knicks score a lot, but only because they have so many chances – they’re actually No. 17 in the league in offensive efficiency at 104.3 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are first at 111.6, and they also run the No. 5 fastest offense at 97.0 possessions per game. That’s the recipe for a ton of points.
Most of the Under teams are classic Eastern Conference defenders. The rebuilding Pistons aren’t as good at this as they used to be – they’re No. 12 in the NBA at 103.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. But their slow pace and sharp decline in offense (No. 21 in the league at 103.6 points/100 possessions) keep the under rolling in dough. Now that’s Detroit basketball, 2009 style.