[Love The Action]

Playing the following in MLB for 1U: (1) Hou/Mil under (7.5); (2) Hou ML (+155) and (3) Col/FL under (8.5).

Probably going to lock in the SA/Mem over in a few as well.

[Love The Action]

Just locked SA/Mem Over (191.5) 2U.

Probably playing the under in the OKC game. Good luck all!

[Love The Action]

Adding MLB plays SD ML (105) 1U and SD/Phil under (7) .5U.

Out for the night. Will also probably be playing under in OKC/Den as a two or three game under chase. If it doesn't hit this game, it should definitely hit in the next two. Good luck all!

[Love The Action]

Okc/den under 208 2u

[Love The Action]

DALLAS/PORTLAND UNDER 186.5 3.5U

The second game I like is the Dallas/Portland under. I currently have 3.5 units locked in at 186.5, but actually expect this line to go up a tad before it drops back down to this number or lower. I just didn't want to take any chances that I will miss the higher number and get stuck with something worse. Just like in the Bulls games, I may add units once the ref assignments come out (in the playoff, ref tendencies are amplified). This line opened up 187.5 and dropped to 186.5 at all sharp books. Early money hit the under big, but now we have about 60% of all bets on the over. These are the types of plays I really like (i.e. public on over, smart money on under).

Here is why I like the under here (in no particular order):

• These teams have played a really slow pace, but have shot abnormally high percentages to send the last two games over. They have only averaged about 142 attempts but both teams have consistently hit at or around 50% for field goal and three point attempts over the last two games. There's just no way that trend continues in Portland (at least I'm willing to be there's not). Even hitting at that great percentage, these two teams barely went over scoring 190 and 189 respective points in their last two games. All we need is for these two teams to shoot around that magic 44% number and we should have no problem cashing this under. At 44% shooting on a 142 attempts, we still have about 60 points to give between free throws and three pointers. I really like our chances that these two teams do not reach any of those numbers in this game. Will Jason Kidd really hit 3 of 6 three pointers like the first game or Wesley Matthews hit 4 of 6 three pointers like the second game? Possible, yes, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't happen.
• I expect a strong defensive game here. This is the most competitive first round series so far and I expect far more physical play than we saw in the last two games. I expect the likes of Chandler, Camby and Wallace to establish a defensive mindset from the outset. Assuming we get some under friendly refs that allow the ticky-tack stuff to fly, I think this game stays under.
• Much like the Bulls game, this total is set pretty low for these two teams (especially the Mavs who were a solid over bet until the last few weeks of the season. At this range between 185 and 189.5, the teams were a combined 23-13 for the over. However, the difference between this game and Bulls game is the slower pace played by the Mavs and Portland. We have only seen about 142 attempts per game in this series, while in the Bulls game they were chucking up around 162 attempts. That is a big difference and highlights why I like the over in the Bulls game and the under in this one.

For the foregoing reasons, I like the under. A lot of the trends for both teams point over, but I just can't get over the slow pace in this series so far. We just need an average shooting day and the under should hit. As with the Bulls game, I may add units once the ref assignments are released. I will also try to keep line movement and public betting trends updated as well. Good luck on those playing the under in the Dallas/Portland game!

Adding 5 units to Dallas/Portland under 187. Total units 3.5 (186.5) plus 5U (187) for total units of 8.5.

WIN +8.5u

.

I should have put more on this game, although, that ending had me sweating a little bit because of the chance for OT.

[Love The Action]

Rolling with 2U Cin/Stl Under 7.5 LOSS and 1U CWS/Det Under 8.5 LOSS for now.

LOSS -3.1U

Lost both of those by one run because of 9th inning runs. Ouch...

Playing the following in MLB for 1U: (1) Hou/Mil under (7.5) LOSS ; (2) Hou ML (+155) WIN and (3) Col/FL under (8.5)WIN .

WIN +3U

Just locked SA/Mem Over (191.5) 2U.

LOSS - 2.2U


Adding MLB plays SD ML (105) 1U LOSS and SD/Phil under (7) .5U .WIN

LOSS -.5U

Okc/den under 208 2u

WIN +2

Total = -.8U

Should have played my MLB leans that I posted on Detroit ML and Cincy ML, but just stuck with the totals in those game and lost them both on meaningless runs in the ninth inning. That made the difference in having a really nice day.

[Love The Action]

FINAL RESULTS FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2011:

Overall record: 6-6 +2.8U
NBA Record: 2-2 +2.8U
MLB Record: 4-4 broke even (broke even in baseball because I won the +155 bet on Hou ML and many of my losses were at + odds so no juice.)

I'll take a profitable 2.8 unit day any day. Just frustrated that we could have done much better with those MLB plays if we didn't lose three of them in the 9th inning and one in the 10th inning. However, can't make any excuses because we all know that's just how it works out sometime. I can't second guess my over calls in the Bulls/Pacers and Spurs/Griz games. The pace was there, but they just didn't shoot respectable numbers. I love playing unders, so I should stick with those, especially in the playoffs, but I just think, in general, professional basketball teams should shoot over 40%. That just didn't happen today. Still a profitable day though and that's all that matters.

There's got to be an easier to way to update wins and losses on this thread. I plan on doing a season long thread in NBA next year and will probably start one in MLB this year. I like doing writeups because it helps me think through my plays one last time before locking them in. Unfortunately, with work and a baby on the way, I won't always have time to put writeups together.

I also like to do these threads so we can spark discussion and hear different viewpoints on these plays.

Not sure if I should continue posting in this thread or start a new one each day I can do a writeup. Plus, I really don't want all my MLB plays cluttering up my NBA thread. Obviously, there are still a few kinks to work out with respect to maintaining a daily thread. This is a lot of work and I give huge props out to those who consistently update their season long threads. I think there is an advantage to posting plays and getting everyone's thoughts, so I will continue to do so.

For Sunday's NBA playoff games, I lean for all four games to go under. However, I have not capped any games yet. I'm going to cap the games now, but probably won't have time for writeups because we have to head to my mother in law's house for Easter brunch around noon.

I will post my final plays here. If I do have time for writeups, I will probably start a new thread.

Good luck guys!

[hoyas2007]

LTA: I think the N.O. - LA under could be a big play. 94% of the public is on the over, yet the line has dropped from the opening. I need to look into the pace of the last game before making it final though. The Miami under could also be a winner - nice public fade there as well. Public is on the under in the Boston game so I'd stay away from that one. And I hate playing the under on a total in the 170s like you have to do for Atl-Orl. Happy Easter!

[Love The Action]

Be careful with the unders in Orl/Atl and LA/NO...both ref crews favor the over in those games. Especially, in the Orl/Atl game where you have Fraher reffing.

[Love The Action]

LTA: I think the N.O. - LA under could be a big play. 94% of the public is on the over, yet the line has dropped from the opening. I need to look into the pace of the last game before making it final though. The Miami under could also be a winner - nice public fade there as well. Public is on the under in the Boston game so I'd stay away from that one. And I hate playing the under on a total in the 170s like you have to do for Atl-Orl. Happy Easter!

After the last Lakers game, I was planning to make a big play on the under in this game. However, the oddsmakers are no dummies and opened it at 184, with early sharp money dropping it to 182.5. Normally, that wouldn't matter and I would still pound the game expecting a final score in the 160-175 range. However, the ref assignments for the later two games severely favor the over. So, that makes me a bit leary. We'll see where the line movement takes us. I've already had a big week, so maybe we'll just make some small action plays. Probably no big plays today.

You may want to rethink your thoughts about not playing unders in the 170's. I agree that range does not provide for much wiggle room from scoring spurts. However, the totals are set that low for a reason. I cashed way more under plays than I lost when the total was set in the 170's. If anything, it scares me to take an over with a total set that low.

Perhaps at some point in the NBA offseason, I will go through all games set in the 170's to figure out total o/u results. That would be interesting.

As always, your thoughts are appreciated. Good luck on your plays today!

[migz]

any leans?

[Love The Action]

any leans?

I lean under in each game. However, the ref assignments make me leary of the under in the two late games. However, for me, it's under or nothing on today's card. I will have some plays, but nothing big. Will probably just put one unit on the under in each game and see what happens. I've had a big week - up over 20 units - so I don't want to give it all back to the books on the last day of the week.

[migz]

Same here, leaning under on Bos/NY game and Atl/Orl game. Was going to take LA/NO under but read your post.

[Love The Action]

I understand the public is on the under in the NY/Bos game. However, that will change by tip and I expect a lot of public money coming in on the over in the next few hours as people wake up. However, I just don't see Boston shooting lights out again at over 50%.

If both teams shoot in the low 40's%, the under should hit easy. Boston should play strong D today and, as crazy as it sounds, I like NY to wake up and at least try a little harder on D. In the last game, NY's body language was garbage and they did not even try on D. If Dantoni doesn't at least try to stress some defense in this game, he should be fired.

[Love The Action]

Gotta run to Easter brunch with the in-laws.

I'm playing the Under 195.5 for 1 Unit in the Bos/Ny game. I see a slightly slower pace and a shooting percentage for Boston that comes down to earth from the 50% they shot last game. I played the over in the last game and cashed. I was planning on playing the under here and am going to stick with that plan. I believe, if Dantoni has a tiny bit of intelligence (which is debatable), that he will stress defense in this game. The Knicks showed no effort in the last game and I think that changes here. It's do or die. If they play D, they might be able to pull it out. If they don't, they die.

I am waiting on a better number in the Mia/Philly game, but will be playing the under in that one too. Currently at 188.5, but I think it should hit 189 or 190. This one scares me a bit, however, I expect heightened defensive effort in this elimination game as well.

For me, I don't see any big plays on the board today. Therefore, I'm just playing one unit plays today in the NBA. Might have some bigger plays in MLB though. I will post them here for anyone that cares (probably no one LOL).

I already locked in the White Sox ML (+105) 1unit. They were shutout yesterday and I like Danks and CWS to bouncback in this spot.

Good luck today guys!! Happy Easter!

[hoyas2007]

The Knicks haven't played defense all season long. In their biggest game of the season in game three, they played some of the worst defense I've ever seen - it was honestly embarrassing. Allen had so many open shots - why were they double teaming off Allen? You need to constantly guard that guy and you can't leave him open ever. Their body language was horrible - they looked completely defeated. I can't tell if they will come out focused in this game to try to at least salvage a game, or if they'll just roll over at this point - I do think we'll see a bit more effort from them today, but I would expect that effort to come more on the offensive end, not the defensive end. I could be wrong, but I just can't see this being a low-scoring, grind it out affair. I think the pace will be fast, both teams will get a lot of open shots - I think it's either an over play or a pass for me. Especially with the public pounding the under as they are. The line opened at 194.5 and has moved up to 195.5 despite all the public action on the under. Do you have any idea what the ref assignments look like in this game?

[Love The Action]

Heat under 188.5 1unit. Just saw pinny juice under so I doubt it goes up any further.

[Love The Action]

The Knicks haven't played defense all season long. In their biggest game of the season in game three, they played some of the worst defense I've ever seen - it was honestly embarrassing. Allen had so many open shots - why were they double teaming off Allen? You need to constantly guard that guy and you can't leave him open ever. Their body language was horrible - they looked completely defeated. I can't tell if they will come out focused in this game to try to at least salvage a game, or if they'll just roll over at this point - I do think we'll see a bit more effort from them today, but I would expect that effort to come more on the offensive end, not the defensive end. I could be wrong, but I just can't see this being a low-scoring, grind it out affair. I think the pace will be fast, both teams will get a lot of open shots - I think it's either an over play or a pass for me. Especially with the public pounding the under as they are. The line opened at 194.5 and has moved up to 195.5 despite all the public action on the under. Do you have any idea what the ref assignments look like in this game?

Can't disagree too much about the knicks. However, I don't see the celts
shooting as well today and any effort at all by the knicks should help keep
it under. Only a one unit play so no big deal.

The refs look pretty good for the under in the first two games, but favor the over in the last two games.

[Love The Action]

Heat under 188.5 1unit. Just saw pinny juice under so I doubt it goes up any further.


WINNER + 1 UNIT

Nice, 1 unit win on the Heat under.

[Love The Action]

Gotta run to Easter brunch with the in-laws.

I'm playing the Under 195.5 for 1 Unit in the Bos/Ny game. WINNERI see a slightly slower pace and a shooting percentage for Boston that comes down to earth from the 50% they shot last game. I played the over in the last game and cashed. I was planning on playing the under here and am going to stick with that plan. I believe, if Dantoni has a tiny bit of intelligence (which is debatable), that he will stress defense in this game. The Knicks showed no effort in the last game and I think that changes here. It's do or die. If they play D, they might be able to pull it out. If they don't, they die.

I am waiting on a better number in the Mia/Philly game, but will be playing the under in that one too. Currently at 188.5, but I think it should hit 189 or 190. This one scares me a bit, however, I expect heightened defensive effort in this elimination game as well.

For me, I don't see any big plays on the board today. Therefore, I'm just playing one unit plays today in the NBA. Might have some bigger plays in MLB though. I will post them here for anyone that cares (probably no one LOL).

I already locked in the White Sox ML (+105) 1unit. LOSS They were shutout yesterday and I like Danks and CWS to bouncback in this spot.

Good luck today guys!! Happy Easter!

Won on the Knicks under but loss with the CWS ML play in MLB. These two plays even out because the Sox play was for + odds.

With the Miami under winner, we are up one unit on the day going into the night games.

Back in a few with my play in the Atl/Orl game. Also will have a play on the Stl/Cin MLB game.

[Love The Action]

NBA - Atl/Orl Under 178.5 .5 unit.


A very low number for sure. In addition, you have Fraher reffing as the number one over ref in the NBA. It's clear the NBA is going to want to make sure there are no fights and will call early fouls. Therefore, we should be on the over right? Wrong. This total is set so low for a reason. In addition, these two teams play a super slow pace against each other and really ramp up the D. However, because of the refs and possibility of a lot of fouls, I am going to play this one small. Only .5 unit.

I will be on the under tonight in the Lakers game as well. Also, I'm checking out a possible big play on the under in the Cardinals/Reds game in MLB.

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Playing the under in Cards/Reds game for 2 units. I put some thoughts together on that game here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...nals-reds.html

Will also be on the under in the Lakers game, but waiting for a possible better price before locking it in. Also want to see how this Orl/Atl game goes. That under is looking OK, but we need the pace to slow down just a tad, which it should in the 2h. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Under 183.5 4 units in the lakers game. The more I look the refs the better I feel...they at least favor the under at this total range. Good luck guy...wish I could give you a full writeup but dint have the time. But rest assured, a lot of the factors I look for in an under are present here...lets cash this under!

[Love The Action]

NBA - Atl/Orl Under 178.5 .5 unit. WINNER
A very low number for sure. In addition, you have Fraher reffing as the number one over ref in the NBA. It's clear the NBA is going to want to make sure there are no fights and will call early fouls. Therefore, we should be on the over right? Wrong. This total is set so low for a reason. In addition, these two teams play a super slow pace against each other and really ramp up the D. However, because of the refs and possibility of a lot of fouls, I am going to play this one small. Only .5 unit.

I will be on the under tonight in the Lakers game as well. Also, I'm checking out a possible big play on the under in the Cardinals/Reds game in MLB.

Good luck!

Just a small winner, but I'll take it! Sort of regret not putting more on it, but I liked the under in Lakers a little more so put more on that one.

[Love The Action]

Anyone have any 2h thoughts. I really hope the hornets stop shooting so well and the lakers try a little harder on D. In not hedging though. Is anyone hedging?

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA, on the under and Hornets and I hedged on both bets.

[Love The Action]

Looks like you might have made a good decision. I love that the pace is slow, but they are not contesting each others' shots enough. I can't believe the Hornets are still shooting 50% +...really pisses me off actually that the Lakers are not showing more defensive effort.

[SilverTongueFox]

Best possible scenario, lakers win by 4 or 5 then I win both side plays. However I got the 2nd half 91.5 so total ending on 185 is death for me. I'm pulling for the under for you - GL

[Love The Action]

Looks like we're going to have sweat this one out...

[Love The Action]

Best possible scenario, lakers win by 4 or 5 then I win both side plays. However I got the 2nd half 91.5 so total ending on 185 is death for me. I'm pulling for the under for you - GL

Thanks and good luck to you as well!!

[Love The Action]

Reds/Cards Under 8.5 (+105) 2 Units. WINNER
Some of you might think I'm crazy for playing the Under in the Cardinals/Reds game.

Yes, Volquez has been getting shelled in the first inning of games and Westbrook has been been getting shelled in general. In addition, both teams swing big wood and have great hitters. Therefore, this should be an easy over right? Wrong. I expect this game to stay under.

Here is why I like the under:

• These two teams generally trend to the under when they play each other.
• As mentioned above, both Volquez and Westbrook have been getting shelled this year. This game will be an ESPN game of the week and they know their peers are watching. If they are going to have a good performance, it is going to be in this game. It's time for both of these guys to man up. These pitchers will be giving all they have tonight.
• When facing a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.3 or better, the Reds generally play to the under.
• When facing a right handed pitcher on the road, the Reds typically play to the under.
• The Reds have played to the under in Volquez's last four starts on the road.
• The Reds have generally played to the under this year as both a dog and road dog.
• The Cards also play to the under when facing a right handed pitcher.
• The Cards have played to the under for most of their home starts this year.
• The Cards generally play to the under against winning teams.
• Just like the Reds, when facing a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.3, the Cards have played to the under.
• The total opened at 9 and dropped to 8.5 despite over 80% of all bets on the over. Big money came in on the under and the books are protecting against further money coming in the under by dropping the total and making the over more inviting. The books want you to bet the over in this game. I generally bet where the real money is. In this game, the smart money is on the under.
• Hirshbeck is the ump...he generally has a pretty big strike zone and when umping against these two teams, the game usually goes under.

There's no doubt I'm going out on a limb on this one. After all, there are many trends that point to the over here. However, I believe the stronger trends point under. In addition, I generally like to bet with the smart money and the books dropped the total here for a reason. Finally, both these teams are big rivals and, just like the Yankees/Red Sox Sunday night game from a few weeks ago, I think this game goes under because of the intense atmosphere. Every pitch will be amplified and the fans will be rocking. I don't want to say this will be a playoff type atmosphere, however, it will be as close as you can get to that for the first month of the season. There is bad blood between these two teams, and in games like this you usually see the under hit. For the foregoing reasons, I'm rolling with the under.

Good luck. Would love to hear from you over backers with your reasons for the over.

Cash the 2 unit MLB under in the Cardinals game.

[Love The Action]

Unreal that the Lakers and Hornets are shooting so well...

[Love The Action]

Under 183.5 4 units in the lakers game. WINNER The more I look the refs the better I feel...they at least favor the under at this total range. Good luck guy...wish I could give you a full writeup but dint have the time. But rest assured, a lot of the factors I look for in an under are present here...lets cash this under!

Cash our 4 unit play on the under in the Lakers game!

We had another nice day to wrap up a very profitable week exceeding 20 units.

RECAP

NBA Plays: 4-0 +6.5 Units
MLB Plays: 1-1 +1 Unit

Total Units for Sunday 4/25/11: +7.5 Units

I just posted another play I really like here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...ml#post9755886

That link will explain why I like the over in the Spurs/Mem game tomorrow for at least 4 units. I'm not telling to you tail, I'm just saying I feel good about it. Good luck on all your guys' plays tomorrow!