UNDER is the play in Cardinals/Reds

[Love The Action]

Reds/Cards Under 8.5 (+105) 2 Units.

Some of you might think I'm crazy for playing the Under in the Cardinals/Reds game.

Yes, Volquez has been getting shelled in the first inning of games and Westbrook has been been getting shelled in general. In addition, both teams swing big wood and have great hitters. Therefore, this should be an easy over right? Wrong. I expect this game to stay under.

Here is why I like the under:

• These two teams generally trend to the under when they play each other.
• As mentioned above, both Volquez and Westbrook have been getting shelled this year. This game will be an ESPN game of the week and they know their peers are watching. If they are going to have a good performance, it is going to be in this game. It's time for both of these guys to man up. These pitchers will be giving all they have tonight.
• When facing a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.3 or better, the Reds generally play to the under.
• When facing a right handed pitcher on the road, the Reds typically play to the under.
• The Reds have played to the under in Volquez's last four starts on the road.
• The Reds have generally played to the under this year as both a dog and road dog.
• The Cards also play to the under when facing a right handed pitcher.
• The Cards have played to the under for most of their home starts this year.
• The Cards generally play to the under against winning teams.
• Just like the Reds, when facing a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.3, the Cards have played to the under.
• The total opened at 9 and dropped to 8.5 despite over 80% of all bets on the over. Big money came in on the under and the books are protecting against further money coming in the under by dropping the total and making the over more inviting. The books want you to bet the over in this game. I generally bet where the real money is. In this game, the smart money is on the under.
• Hirshbeck is the ump...he generally has a pretty big strike zone and when umping against these two teams, the game usually goes under.

There's no doubt I'm going out on a limb on this one. After all, there are many trends that point to the over here. However, I believe the stronger trends point under. In addition, I generally like to bet with the smart money and the books dropped the total here for a reason. Finally, both these teams are big rivals and, just like the Yankees/Red Sox Sunday night game from a few weeks ago, I think this game goes under because of the intense atmosphere. Every pitch will be amplified and the fans will be rocking. I don't want to say this will be a playoff type atmosphere, however, it will be as close as you can get to that for the first month of the season. There is bad blood between these two teams, and in games like this you usually see the under hit. For the foregoing reasons, I'm rolling with the under.

Good luck. Would love to hear from you over backers with your reasons for the over.

[southpaw74]

Both these teams have only gone over 9 once out of the last 5 games as well.

[BiffTFinancial]

like it, BOL to you. in Hirshbeck we trust.

[Stringer Bell]

Late line movement towards the under. Went from over 8.5 -103 to over 8.5 +110 in the last five minutes on 5dimes. I'm on the over but good info.

[aznknightt]

is there a pitcher change? yahoo sports show LeCure, thanks for the pic

[eachdolphin636]

i guess under it is

[CanuckG]

under being juiced to hell yet public loves over

[Love The Action]

Yes...Volquez is in...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2011-04-24-3263006300_x.htm

http://www.bnd.com/2011/04/24/1682987/reds-change-starting-pitchers.html

[LGHT]

Love the Action, you posted some interesting TEAM stats, but I prefer to focus on player stats and I took the over in this one and here is why.

Westbrook has yet to get out of the 5th inning in 4 starts this year. His last start only last 3 inning where he gave up 7 runs ALL earned to Washington who has a team ERA of .217

Westbrook has an ERA of 9.82 on the year.

Westbrook is 4-0 on his overs this year.

Westbrook has given up 23 runs 20 earned on 4 starts this year.

Cin is 12-9 on their overs this year

STL is 11-9-1 on their overs this year

Over is 8-2 in Volquezs last 10 Sun. starts.

Over is 8-3-1 in STL last 12 overall.

Volquezs is 3-2 in his overs this year

Volquezs Era on the year is 6.75

Volquezs hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in his last 3 2011 starts.

Volquezs pitched 5.2 innings his last start and gave up 6 runs ALL earned against pitts who sports a team era of .236

[Love The Action]

Love the Action, you posted some interesting TEAM stats, but I prefer to focus on player stats and I took the over in this one and here is why.

Westbrook has yet to get out of the 5th inning in 4 starts this year. His last start only last 3 inning where he gave up 7 runs ALL earned to Washington who has a team ERA of .217

Westbrook has an ERA of 9.82 on the year.

Westbrook is 4-0 on his overs this year.

Westbrook has given up 23 runs 20 earned on 4 starts this year.

Cin is 12-9 on their overs this year

STL is 11-9-1 on their overs this year

Over is 8-2 in Volquezs last 10 Sun. starts.

Over is 8-3-1 in STL last 12 overall.

Volquezs is 3-2 in his overs this year

Volquezs Era on the year is 6.75

Volquezs hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in his last 3 2011 starts.

Volquezs pitched 5.2 innings his last start and gave up 6 runs ALL earned against pitts who sports a team era of .236

Great thoughts, thanks. It's true neither Volquez or Westbrook have done well this year. However, that is exactly why I like this under. Generally, where two established pitchers have struggled and end up facing each other in a big game atmosphere, they pitch well and the game stays under. Plus, the line movement cinched it for me. The books wanted your money on the over this game and took a stand. 80% of all bets were on the over, but they dropped the total down to 8.5. Not only that, the books then juiced the under at 8.5. That tells me the books and the syndicates favored the under.

I guess we'll find out who is right. I respect your opinion and appreciate your comments. It's scoreless through two innings so I hope it stays that way. Good luck (but not too much LOL).

[LGHT]

Good point on the person aspect and line movement. As an analyst I often don't even consider personal aspects or line moves when I make my plays, I just focus on the numbers. I can see how 2 struggling pitchers would come into a game knowing and pitching like they can win. Hopefully this isn't one of those games, but no score in the 3rd doesn't look good for the over. So this may be a break out game for one or both pitchers.

[Walulu]

Read this right after I took the over. After checking back and seeing the rest of the comments and the line movement right before game I knew I was sunk. I suppose there is a lot of game left but as stated in first post these pitchers have shown up so far.

[Stringer Bell]

Rain is the only hope for us over guys.

[Love The Action]

Keep your fingers crossed under backers...we have a 5 run cushion in the bottom of the ninth. I'll take that any day, but I have seen crazier things happen. Good luck!

[gamble]

good call tonight

[Love The Action]

good call tonight

[Love The Action]

Reds/Cards Under 8.5 (+105) 2 Units. WINNER

Some of you might think I'm crazy for playing the Under in the Cardinals/Reds game.

Yes, Volquez has been getting shelled in the first inning of games and Westbrook has been been getting shelled in general. In addition, both teams swing big wood and have great hitters. Therefore, this should be an easy over right? Wrong. I expect this game to stay under.

Here is why I like the under:

• These two teams generally trend to the under when they play each other.
• As mentioned above, both Volquez and Westbrook have been getting shelled this year. This game will be an ESPN game of the week and they know their peers are watching. If they are going to have a good performance, it is going to be in this game. It's time for both of these guys to man up. These pitchers will be giving all they have tonight.
• When facing a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.3 or better, the Reds generally play to the under.
• When facing a right handed pitcher on the road, the Reds typically play to the under.
• The Reds have played to the under in Volquez's last four starts on the road.
• The Reds have generally played to the under this year as both a dog and road dog.
• The Cards also play to the under when facing a right handed pitcher.
• The Cards have played to the under for most of their home starts this year.
• The Cards generally play to the under against winning teams.
• Just like the Reds, when facing a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.3, the Cards have played to the under.
• The total opened at 9 and dropped to 8.5 despite over 80% of all bets on the over. Big money came in on the under and the books are protecting against further money coming in the under by dropping the total and making the over more inviting. The books want you to bet the over in this game. I generally bet where the real money is. In this game, the smart money is on the under.
• Hirshbeck is the ump...he generally has a pretty big strike zone and when umping against these two teams, the game usually goes under.

There's no doubt I'm going out on a limb on this one. After all, there are many trends that point to the over here. However, I believe the stronger trends point under. In addition, I generally like to bet with the smart money and the books dropped the total here for a reason. Finally, both these teams are big rivals and, just like the Yankees/Red Sox Sunday night game from a few weeks ago, I think this game goes under because of the intense atmosphere. Every pitch will be amplified and the fans will be rocking. I don't want to say this will be a playoff type atmosphere, however, it will be as close as you can get to that for the first month of the season. There is bad blood between these two teams, and in games like this you usually see the under hit. For the foregoing reasons, I'm rolling with the under.

Good luck. Would love to hear from you over backers with your reasons for the over.

Cash the under in the Cardinals game for a rather easy 2 units in profit. It's nice not to have to sweat one out for once.