NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**kobstopa** · 11-14-12, 04:10 PM

I'm going Miami ml today, I hope reshad Lewis get some minutes.

**Goat Milk** · 11-14-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by h3da

Dwyane Wade a game-time call

I'll probably hedge 80% of this bet if Wade is out.

**JR007** · 11-14-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

I've been here for 3 years posting the same analysis for 3 years. All that information goes through my head before I make a bet. Writing it down here is a favor I do to the forum. If you don't like it, don't read it. If people don't find it helpful, please say so. I won't post them anymore.

what head, that's a" pumpkin "you have up there

**pip2** · 11-14-12, 04:19 PM

There must be 5 gajillion factors involved in predicting an NBA money winner. They are all swimming around the universe somewhere and we are all thrashing about trying to grasp onto enough of them to make some money. When somebody starts listing out an analysis, as goat does, some of these factors that have been swimming get nailed down onto the screen for us all to consider. A point that goat makes might be right or wrong, but it is laid out there for our examination to determine its value. It helps organize and consolidate our thinking, and that can be crucial for making a good decision.

**JM92** · 11-14-12, 04:21 PM

How in the world is the Miami bench the best in the game? You gotta be delusional. Bledose > Cole (not even close) Crawford by himself better than allen, if lebron is envolved than I rather have ray, Hollins and Turiaf are bigger and tougher than anyone the Heat have also Barnes is probably as worthy as Lewis right now since he's much better defensively. I don't get that one for sure... Haslem is not as good as he used to be also.

**h3da** · 11-14-12, 04:29 PM

Since Wade isn't 100% it will be hard for Miami to win this game.. Might hedge while it's early before ML moves.

**Goat Milk** · 11-14-12, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by JM92

How in the world is the Miami bench the best in the game? You gotta be delusional. Bledose > Cole (not even close) Crawford by himself better than allen, if lebron is envolved than I rather have ray, Hollins and Turiaf are bigger and tougher than anyone the Heat have also Barnes is probably as worthy as Lewis right now since he's much better defensively. I don't get that one for sure... Haslem is not as good as he used to be also.

Crawford is not better than Ray Allen. No chance there. Hollins, Turiaf? These guys are scrubs. Lewis Haslem Mike Miller. Barnes is actually a horrible player and that's why the Lakers sent him packing. Bledsoe is good.

**t-wizzle** · 11-14-12, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Crawford is not better than Ray Allen. No chance there. Hollins, Turiaf? These guys are scrubs. Lewis Haslem Mike Miller. Barnes is actually a horrible player and that's why the Lakers sent him packing. Bledsoe is good.

Barnes is a terrible player. He probably shouldn't be in the league anymore. Used to be a solid defender and could knock down some 3s when he was with Golden State but he is a complete scrub now.

**Goat Milk** · 11-14-12, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Barnes is a terrible player. He probably shouldn't be in the league anymore.

LOL

**JM92** · 11-14-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Crawford is not better than Ray Allen. No chance there. Hollins, Turiaf? These guys are scrubs. Lewis Haslem Mike Miller. Barnes is actually a horrible player and that's why the Lakers sent him packing. Bledsoe is good.

No chance? Allen is one of my favourite players and I dislike the kind of guy crawford is but no chance? they are different players but right now if I can only chosen one it's gotta be the more versatil and capable Crawford. Hollins and Turiaf are scrubs who do their job pretty well. Lewis, Haslem, Miller? Lewis is a scrub as well and Miller's only good from time to time will. That bench is so much better defensivly than the Heat's that it shouldn't even be a question.

**Byrone09** · 11-14-12, 10:01 PM

Wade is playing

**Goat Milk** · 11-14-12, 10:03 PM

Yes. Bet will not be hedged. 550 on it.

**Ch Br** · 11-14-12, 10:45 PM

Difference in the game will be the turnovers and fouls.....

LAC 24 fouls/game vs MIa 19

Lac turnovers 16.4 vs Mia 13

Jordan wont have easy lobs vs Bosh

**MexicanStallion** · 11-15-12, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 23: MIAMI HEAT +1 @ CLIPPERS -110 Risking $550 to win $500

Will write something tomorrow. This is a good spot I think for a decent sized bet. Maybe one day I'll be able to drop 40k on regular season games that come down to the final shot.

November 14th
0-1 (-$550.00)

NBA Season
15-8 ($1114.50)

Spreads: 8-6($26.00)
Moneylines: 2-1 ($137.50)
Halves: 2-1 ($195.00)
Parlays: 3-0 ($756.00)

*0-2 Last 2 Bets*

**Byrone09** · 11-15-12, 07:48 PM

this thread got quiet...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-15-12, 08:57 PM

Ssshhh...

**elPkay** · 11-16-12, 08:34 PM

Despite all those ppl spamming this topic I'd still like to read your daily picks and your in depth game analysis

**Byrone09** · 11-17-12, 02:40 PM

Yes, there were lots of great plays. Would love to read some more.

**1sob** · 11-17-12, 07:28 PM

Goat probably taking a break

**Goat Milk** · 11-19-12, 04:47 PM

no plays til wednesday maybe

i don't have time to look at anything right now. didn't even bet nfl yesterday i thought pats -9 was so easy too

**Goat Milk** · 11-21-12, 01:25 PM

PLAY 24: DENVER NUGGETS ML -150 @ MINNESOTA. RISK $300

Will write something up tonight about matchups. I realize this is going to be a big public play but I don't care. If you look at those things in the NBA everyday, you're not going to win in this sport. There are 82 games in a year.

This line should be Nuggets -5/6. I'll probably take the -3 but I'm not so sure seeing as though they Nugs are just finding their rhythm now. Wolves are one of the worst teams in the West. Love, Rubio, and Roy could have made them a playoff contender. I'm not liking much else today.

**Goat Milk** · 11-21-12, 01:35 PM

I'm taking something in the Boston Spurs game for sure as well.

**Byrone09** · 11-21-12, 01:40 PM

Nuggets will clean up on the boards and have several favoring trends. Love it! I'm on it!

**Goat Milk** · 11-21-12, 07:59 PM

PLAY 25: DENVER -2 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

Kevin Love is back tonight. Game starts in a bit. I fell asleep for a little. Sorry no in depth writeup. The Nuggets are going to beat up the Twolves on the glass tonight and Lawson has a significant advantage here as Ridnour does not have the footwork defensively to keep up. I expect a ton of easy buckets for the Nugs tonight and the Twolves are a team that hates getting their hands dirty in the paint. They like to stay on the perimeter and jack up jumpers and I doubt K Love fully exert himself in the paint tonight.

**therealdealau** · 11-21-12, 08:03 PM

Who did you like in the Spurs game mate?

**lunchbawks** · 11-21-12, 08:08 PM

14 games better choices imo

**Goat Milk** · 11-21-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Who did you like in the Spurs game mate?

I liked Boston as I did not believe Pop would have an answer for PP tonight with his 2 best SF's injured for the next few weeks. Maybe I'll take something second half there.

**therealdealau** · 11-21-12, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

I liked Boston as I did not believe Pop would have an answer for PP tonight with his 2 best SF's injured for the next few weeks. Maybe I'll take something second half there.

Nice angle, did it worry you that he wasn't 100% though? Gl with Denver, I hope Gallo/Lawson shoot productively (on my fantasy team)!

**Goat Milk** · 11-22-12, 12:12 AM

I'll probably be betting the Lakers tomorrow @ Memphis if the line is favorable. Regardless of what happens in their game tonight. Memphis is a great basketball team but I doubt they can win that game if even one of their 2 bigs (zbo, gasol) gets in early foul trouble which is a big possibility in a game like this.

**MexicanStallion** · 11-22-12, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 24: DENVER NUGGETS ML -150 @ MINNESOTA. RISK $300

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 25: DENVER -2 -110 RISK $110 TO WIN $100

November 21st
2-0 (+$300.00)

NBA Season
17-8 ($1414.50)

Spreads: 9-6 ($126.00)
Moneylines: 3-1 ($337.50)
Halves: 2-1 ($195.00)
Parlays: 3-0 ($756.00)

*2-0 Last 2 Bets*

**1sob** · 11-22-12, 01:15 AM

nice sweep goat milk

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-22-12, 02:01 AM

Atta boy, Goat.

**Goat Milk** · 11-23-12, 02:37 PM

PLAY 26: Lakers +5 -120 Risk $120

PLAY 27: Lakers +170 ML Risk $100

I projected the Lakers having a similar start to the year as MIAMI did when they first formed and started the year 9-8 then still won the East with ease. Lakers should be rounding into form now but still missing Nash which is huge. Moore is a big physical PG that can disrupt the pick and roll with Connoly and Gasol if he's play D on his tip toes. Connoly is one of the quickest pg's in the game but you really just have to make the guy a midrange shooter. Keep him off the 3 line and from getting in the paint.

Tony Allen loves to guard Kobe Bryant. He's said it in the past. Bryant relishes playing against guys like this. Allen took Bryant's spot on the first team all defensive team last year I'm pretty sure? Bryant's been on that list more than anyone in NBA history. He did not forget about that, trust me. Bryant looks better than he ever has in his career this year imo. Guy has every shot in the book, literally. Allen's aggressiveness could be effective tonight but Bryant is very savvy with one of the most deceptive pump fakes in nba history. Allen will most definitely send him to the line 8+ times tonight. Hollins will bring in Pondexter off the bench to handle Bryant in certain situations. Bryant also typically has to work harder against guys with length so it wouldn't surprise me to see Rudy Gay on Bryant for stretches of tonight's game.

Gay has a tough matchup himself with Artest guarding him on the other end. Artest can't guard explosive and fast SF's anymore. But gay is neither. He's very long and is content with being a jump shooter. The guy is arguably the most athletic forward in all of basketball after Lebron James, which is why it bothers me to see him constantly settling for fadeaways. Artest will push him off his spots tonight imo and force him to be a jump shooter. But trust me, gay is more than capable of lighting it up from distance, just hoping it's not today.

Randolph is going to see a number of defenders on him tonight I believe. Gasol, Howard, and possibly Jordan Hill for a few plays. If I'm Dantoni, I'm putting Gasol on his brother tonight and Howard on Randolph. Randolph is very effective against weaker PFs and guys that don't have more than a couple inches on him. But Howard has a good 4 inches on Randolph and with his vertical, those putbacks off offensive rebounds are not gonna be easy for Randolph. He's better off taking that midrange jumper that's he's developed over the past couple years to keep Howard off balance.

I want to see the Gasol's matchup but I'm not gonna be able to watch this game tonight. Both guys are very unique in their skill sets, probably the two best passing big men in all of basketball. Pau has a better jumper, while Mark is probably a little tougher defender. But they may have to cross on the defensive end as I don't believe Randolph will be able to guard Dwight down low. It's for these reasons primarily that I like the Lakers.

I think Hollins will go into this game without knowing for certain who he wants to guard Dwight and who will guard Pau. I think Memphis will be confused at times on defense and struggle making executive decisions, which tends to lead to foul trouble and tons of free throws for the Lakers most likely. The Grizz have Speights coming off the bench who is solid but he is not capable of playing the C position in this game specifically. The Lakers bench is a mess and one of the worst in the NBA. But at least they are all rested because none of them have gotten much playing time recently.

This seems like a favorable matchup for Jamison tonight as the Grizz don't really have a 3 or 4 besides Rudy Gay that is capable of playing D on the perimeter. The Grizz bench on the other hand is a bit overrated with guys like Pondexter Speights Ellington etc who are just solid but not great bench players. They've kind of overperformed to this point in the year and that won't continue down the stretch of this season

but I can't really make an accurate assessment for tonights game about these guys because I have yet to see Dantoni in action in LA so these are merely vague observations I'm making. They are not accurate projections at all (matchups) because I don't have enough info on Dantoni yet to understand his mindset here in LA.

**amarius87** · 11-23-12, 03:02 PM

thanks for the write up.. enjoyed reading it.. i was thinking to take a lakers on ML today. reading this brings more confidence about this pick. and who can pass the on the lakers at the ML odds they are at, witht he caliber team they have.. imho I dont know why people are going buck over the lakers playing like crap like 10 games in.. did they forget the heat started like this and never looked back? its a team game.. takes time to gel.. lakers are gonna be 1 or 2 in the west by the end no doubt. and they will play tough after the horrible loss to sacramento the other night.

**Ch Br** · 11-23-12, 03:20 PM

great write up... bu im staying away from this one without D'antoni knowledge as you alluded to