NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**therealdealau** · 10-29-12, 11:48 PM

I've always valued your input and analysis on games, one of the few posters who provides an in depth look at why you are picking a certain game and there are lots of relevant facts to support it. Look forward to following along in this thread. Good luck mate!

**Degenerate Life** · 10-30-12, 01:00 AM

Not prop\future better myself but I like all 3 of these. OKC comes back to the pack, Lakers destined to go to finals, and somebody other than Bron has to win MVP.

**Dexter** · 10-30-12, 01:02 AM

GM....GL buddy

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 10-30-12, 11:15 AM

Wizofbean,sonny, youngbuck,ayo

HERE WE GO AGAIN FELLAS THE KARMA TRAIN BACK ON THE RAILS.

LETS GET THIS PAPER!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOAT GOOD LUCK BUDDY I LIKE THE LAKERS TO TAKE IT 2

**JR007** · 10-30-12, 01:00 PM

Hey, Goat...how about just the thread with no analysis.......killing my eyesight, and brain

**lyon804** · 10-30-12, 02:23 PM

I am certainly looking forward to this.

Let me guess... First bet, Miami ML

Lebron gonna destroy Paul Pierce and Wade gonna destroy Lee and whover else that tries to stop them.

Ray, Ray gonna get 25 pts off the bench because he will be wide open all nite with all the attention Lebron and Wade get.

Is this about right?

**Goat Milk** · 10-30-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

I am certainly looking forward to this.

Let me guess... First bet, Miami ML

Lebron gonna destroy Paul Pierce and Wade gonna destroy Lee and whover else that tries to stop them.

Ray, Ray gonna get 25 pts off the bench because he will be wide open all nite with all the attention Lebron and Wade get.

Is this about right?

solid analysis. looks like you would have won, but I saw you bet Boston on the spread like you do in every opener.

**Goat Milk** · 10-30-12, 09:44 PM

First 5-10 plays will all be to win 50 Max, many times less, until I study the nuances this year. A rhythm must be established. Unless I spot an off line where the books are overestimating or underestimating a team (which I do spot 1 tomorrow).

Play #1: Lakers -8 -120 Risk $60 to win $50

No writeup for tonight. Tomorrow's play will have an in-depth writeup.

**demens** · 10-31-12, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

First 5-10 plays will all be to win 50 Max, many times less, until I study the nuances this year. A rhythm must be established. Unless I spot an off line where the books are overestimating or underestimating a team (which I do spot 1 tomorrow).

Play #1: Lakers -8 -120 Risk $60 to win $50

No writeup for tonight. Tomorrow's play will have an in-depth writeup.

i just wanted to wish you GL until i saw this.

i wonder if you realize how silly you sound sometimes. GL anyways.

**JR007** · 10-31-12, 03:57 PM

nice call on the Lakers

**Goat Milk** · 10-31-12, 04:04 PM

PLay #2: Denver -1.5 Risk $220 to win $200

This is the play that stood out to me from earlier in the week.

Denver is going to be one of the main threats in the Western Conference this year. Philly, missing Bynum tonight, will go with Holiday J Rich, Turner, Thad Young, and Allen with probably Nick Young, D Wright and Hawes coming off that bench at 6 7 8.

Denver is running the same offense as last year and it won't take Iguadala any time to adjust. He's a guy that plays off the ball for the most part and his main duty tonight will involved shutting down Evan Turner and J Rich. Ty Lawson has a half a step at least on Holiday.

I don't like Philly's team at all this year. All their guys can't play off the ball except for J rich and Hawes. Holiday, Turner, Thad Young, Allen, Nick Young are all isolation players. It's gonna be tough to hang with Denver if your offense is stagnant and that's what's going to happen tonight. Denver is much bigger at every position except PG. I don't know how Allen is starting over Hawes--there's no way that Allen is going to be able to keep McGee off the glass. Faried with get his share of offensive rebounds as well and seems like a difficult task for Thad Young, a SF, to try and box him out. Gallinari will guard Turner but will also switch onto J Rich for the most part I suspect. Either way, Gallinari is 6'10 and can shoot over the top of either of these guys.

Andre Miller, Wilson Chandler, Brewer, and Mozgof will all probably see time tonight. Wilson Chandler is a wild card off the bench. Brewer and Mozgof both big at their respective positions. Philly's bench is decent, Wright a good pickup--a knock down shooter and I expect him to be open for some 3s tonight. But Nick Young is gonna struggle in this offense as he is not a good passer.

The Philly offense needs a post player to play well and they have no post player tonight except Spencer Hawes. Their going to be playing perimeter ball all game and be taking jumpers all game, watch. Denver is just way too big for this team, and even at their size, they don't lose any speed.

Expect Denver to win this game pretty easily.

**PAYTON20** · 10-31-12, 04:06 PM

haha he loses one play for 60 and people are already clownin

let it play out

**fergie's balls** · 10-31-12, 04:25 PM

Good write up,I'm on Denver also

**Pauulzcappin** · 10-31-12, 04:29 PM

good luck nig

**Goat Milk** · 10-31-12, 09:01 PM

Karl's rotation for the nuggets threw me off tonight. I projected McGee winning the starting spot and he barely plays and Gallo did not even dress which I was not aware of. Should have put more time into researching this game.

PLAY # 3: Lakers -2 -110 Risk $55 to win $50

PLAY # 4: Lakers -125 ML Risk $62.5 to win $50

I am rolling with the Lakers tonight simply for value. This line reflects the Lakers poor offensive performance last night as well as coming into PORT on a B2B, one of the toughest places to play in the NBA.Lillard is going to be a very solid pg in this league. He is very quick to the basket and will definitely catch Nash off guard from the getgo. If PORT strategizes well they can easily keep this game close if they let Lillard dominate the ball and get Aldrich and Hickson out on the elbows when Gasol and Howard come to the paint to help. Mathews and Batum will both share the job guarding Bryant tonight depending on who has the better feel for him. Mathews is a strong low post defender but Bryant is too crafty it won't matter. You're better off guarding Bryant with length than strength. Howard has a significant advantage down low tonight with either Hickson or LA guarding him. They would prefer to start with Hickson as LA getting in foul trouble would mean the game is virtually over as the blazers have one of the worst offenses in the NBA this year if you take him off the roster. Howard was obviously nervous playing his first game in LA last night and everyone could see in his form. He wasn't letting the ball come off his finger tips and was pushing the ball rather than using wrist. Expect a 180 effort from him tonight. I did not understand the Lakers offense last night. Nash looked slow, Bryant barely touched the ball, Artest was taking too many shots. i expect the Lakers to start slow just like MIA did in 2010 (9-8 first 17 games)--Lyon and others guaranteeing they would not win the East (what happened???)Lakers have more veterans here so don't expect that slow of a start but they will lose to some quality teams with good coaching early on. Batum is usually an X factor for this team and he's gonna have Artest in his face all night tonight. Not a great defender anymore, but his strength is gonna bother Batum for sure. The Blazers are lacking in perimeter shooting and that's a main way you're going to beat LA. Collison and Rody showed us that last night (although Dwight is the reason Lakers lost and no other reason). The beginning of the season is all about finding rhythm and it's hard to gauge these teams early on, hence the small bets. Tread carefully the first week here. I don't recommend anyone tails for at least 1 week.

**Dexter** · 10-31-12, 09:19 PM

bro - if you're hell bent on making bets based on all of these individual players, then use rotoworld.com for updates. it was known that mcgee was coming off the bench and playing <30mpg and gallanari was a question mark all day and then announced out at 5:20 EST...

its the best site for up to the second player updates...

**No coincidences** · 10-31-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

bro - if you're hell bent on making bets based on all of these individual players, then use rotoworld.com for updates. it was known that mcgee was coming off the bench and playing <30mpg and gallanari was a question mark all day and then announced out at 5:20 EST...

its the best site for up to the second player updates...

Rotoworld is invaluable.

**hawley** · 10-31-12, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

bro - if you're hell bent on making bets based on all of these individual players, then use rotoworld.com for updates. it was known that mcgee was coming off the bench and playing <30mpg and gallanari was a question mark all day and then announced out at 5:20 EST...

its the best site for up to the second player updates...

This has been very common and public knowledge for a long time now.

GL on the season GM.

**fergie's balls** · 11-01-12, 10:44 AM

Goat, what's the play tonight

**JR007** · 11-02-12, 01:25 PM

"good luck tonight,...... you "Rookie".......maybe Philly's rotation thru you off, not Denvers

**Goat Milk** · 11-02-12, 05:03 PM

PLAY #5: OKC -8.5 -110 Risk $55 to win $50

PLAY #6: Memphis -1-110 Risk $55 to win $50

PLAY #7: OKC ML/Memphis ML Risk $50 to win $65

Sorry no time for in depth writeups today. Gonna be out all night.

GS team is pretty bad imo. They have a great front line but at this point Curry and Bogut are not 100% and it was quite obvious last game. Connoly is a pressure PG that never gives up defensively and expect sloppy footwork from Bogut tonight in his limited minutes while trying to go against the craftier Gasol. Lee and Randolph are both very similar players. But Rudy Gay should be the X factor tonight and expect the grizz to outrebound the warriors tonight.

OKC will beat the Blazers for sure. Like I said, if Lillard played to Aldrich's strengths on the elbows then they were both gonna have a big game against LA as they are struggling to guard the pick and roll especially with a slow PG. That is not the case with OKC who is one of the best defensive pick and roll teams in the NBA. Lillard has absolutely no chance to stay with Russel Westbrook and if I'm coaching I'm going with Wesley Mathews on Westbrook for at least 50% of this game. I don't know the BLazers coach so I'm not sure what his strategy is. There is a lot I can say about this game but Blazers front line is very small and expect them to get beat up in the paint tonight.

The Thunder will probably almost double points in the paint tonight.

After this week concludes I'll be making more normal size NBA bets. If anyone happens to watch any of these games tonight, please chime in here with game notes. Thx.

**chargers4222** · 11-02-12, 05:30 PM

lol some people....lol omg....lol...you'll learn one day and it will be the hard way. pathetic, terrible

**No coincidences** · 11-02-12, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

GS team is pretty bad imo.

Curry and Lee went 4 for 30 in Phoenix and they still won.

That either means you're dead wrong or the Suns are the worst team in the league.

**Goat Milk** · 11-03-12, 06:05 PM

PLAY #8: Boston Celtics -5 -120 Risk $24 to win $20

PLAY #9: Boston Celtics -240 ML Risk $240 to win $100

After this week I'll have gotten enough info to start making bigger bets.

The Celtics are an auto play today on the road after a loss. Celtics are an auto play every time for me this year after a loss when playing a sub .500 team.

Sorry no time to get the writeup in game's gonna start soon. Good luck all.

**Goat Milk** · 11-04-12, 01:00 PM

PLAY #10: Lakers -7 -120 Risk $60

Will write something short later.

**Goat Milk** · 11-04-12, 04:56 PM

Lakers go into this game without Nash and having lost their first 3 games. I wasn't gonna take LA here, but I couldn't resist as they are playing my hometown team, the Pistons, who I believe will be one of the worst teams in the NBA this year.

Monroe is Detroit's most productive offensive player. With him starting at C, you're going to get him in foul trouble most likely, and after that, Detroit is guaranteed to fall apart. Stucky has a tough matchup defensively with Bryant and he isn't used to being a 2 way player. Brandon Knight is a good young prospect but to beat the Lakers you have to have solid pick and roll and jump shooting players. Knight is neither. Tayshaun and Artest--nothing to say here--should cancel each other out. The Pistons have a solid bench with Drummond, Jerebko and Bynum. They are one of the few teams that has enough bigs to hang with the Lakers.

Bryant is too crafty of a vet for Stuckey. Gasol has about 5 inches on Maxill, and if Monroe gets in foul trouble guarding Dwight, the Pistons will get crushed.

**Dexter** · 11-04-12, 05:32 PM

you think they will put monroe on howard for sure? maybe they put him on gasol to stay out of foul trouble...

**sando** · 11-04-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Lakers go into this game without Nash and having lost their first 3 games. I wasn't gonna take LA here, but I couldn't resist as they are playing my hometown team, the Pistons, who I believe will be one of the worst teams in the NBA this year.

Monroe is Detroit's most productive offensive player. With him starting at C, you're going to get him in foul trouble most likely, and after that, Detroit is guaranteed to fall apart. Stucky has a tough matchup defensively with Bryant and he isn't used to being a 2 way player. Brandon Knight is a good young prospect but to beat the Lakers you have to have solid pick and roll and jump shooting players. Knight is neither. Tayshaun and Artest--nothing to say here--should cancel each other out. The Pistons have a solid bench with Drummond, Jerebko and Bynum. They are one of the few teams that has enough bigs to hang with the Lakers.

Bryant is too crafty of a vet for Stuckey. Gasol has about 5 inches on Maxill, and if Monroe gets in foul trouble guarding Dwight, the Pistons will get crushed.

Solid analysis mate!

**Goat Milk** · 11-04-12, 10:01 PM

Dexter sorry, never saw your post. Yeah, Monroe and Dwight are guarding one another right now. DET doesn't have anyone else they can use to guard Dwight in the starting lineup. Drummond can come in off the bench and guard Dwight if DET needs to keep Monroe out of Foul trouble.

**Dexter** · 11-04-12, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Dexter sorry, never saw your post. Yeah, Monroe and Dwight are guarding one another right now. DET doesn't have anyone else they can use to guard Dwight in the starting lineup. Drummond can come in off the bench and guard Dwight if DET needs to keep Monroe out of Foul trouble.

too late...i already bet det

**Goat Milk** · 11-05-12, 12:02 AM

YTD: 5-5 -$107

Get ready for some big bets next few weeks. I am about to hit 7 of the next 10. Don't ever fade me in this sport No coin. It'll be your undoing. This is NBA.

**Goat Milk** · 11-05-12, 04:03 AM

Let's see what adjustments Collins will make going into game 2 of this matchup. J rich won't play and if I'm collins I'm starting Evans at the 2 and wright at the 3. Thad Young had no success guarding Mello. I think they will try a combination of Evans, Young, and Wright tmrw but Mello has significant advantages over all those guys in ever facet of the game.

Chandler will play more on the road and should be able to limit holiday a little more in the paint. Felton and Kidd need to switch off on him more. Woodson will make the defensive adjustment. Expect a better game from some shooters perhaps Nick Young, although Young is not a passer and as I said about the sixers they need guard passers and they don't have them. Evans is a 1 on 1 player. Holiday the only passer with Hawes.

WHy Spencer Hawes doesn't start is beyond me. Collins is an idiot for this. Hawes is a true C and Allen and Young are not going to hold down the paint tomorrow. Knicks will control the paint with Sheed/Camby/Thomas off the bench.

JR smith is a streak shooter and expect him to go through peaks and valleys this year as always. Ride him while he's hot. I don't think Philly has the talent at this point without Bynum and no shut down defender to guard the 2/3s like a Melo can win these types of matchups 50% of the time, so these odds are ridiculous.

PLAY #11: $265 to win $250 on Knicks +4 -110

You can get it at 4.5 mostly everywhere. played this with my guy. will see what ml is tomorrow.

**NittanyLionsFan** · 11-05-12, 07:41 AM

Lol what a terrible play. 76ers run them out of the gym.

**fergie's balls** · 11-06-12, 09:16 AM

good call. curious to see Knicks / Mavs line.