What do you think of the Lakers tomorrow? Waiting for line obviously but I think they could be a pretty big play.
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Seto, not sure yet. We'll talk about that tomorrow.
PLAY #12: OKC THUNDER -8.5 -110 RISK $110 to win $100
Not much anything I like today. This play is mostly just for action. A lot of games stand out tomorrow.
The Thunder are not playing good basketball right now but I have to believe that will turn around against the lowly Raptors. The lineup they are messing with is very dangerous. They going with Landry Fields at the 3 and it looks like coach is sticking to that and that's a recipe for disaster tonight. Durant is going to toy with Fields every which way. Both on the perimeter and off the dribble. Expect a huge game from Durant.
Westbrook and Lowry two of the best PGs in all of basketball. I give Westbrook a slight edge because of his speed off the dribble and Lowry's inconsistency with his pick and roll defense. Barnagni and that new Valanciuius guy or w/e are both bad defenders when guarding smaller guys on the switch and expect a lot of that from the Thunder tonight. Making coach go with Amir Johnson more at the 5 which is a better play anyway.
An advantage for TOR in this game is Barnagni. Ibaka can't guard perimeter PFs. All he does is camp out in the lane and wait for the block, which will help on Lowry somewhat. But you have to play disciplined when going against Barn. If the Raptors utilize this, and Barnagni has a good shooting night (it's very tough to tell with him), I expect the Raptors to cover. But given that this is such a young team, and playing in a hostile environment, I don't think they will play well enough to win or cover here.
Derozan is a great young prospect. High flyer. One of the most athletic guys in the entire league. Sefalosha finally gets an opportunity to play against an athletic 2 guard, and expect a lot of minutes from Sef tonight. Brooks is stressing he only has one job tonight and that's to make Derezon a jump shooter.
Maynor and Martin should provide a nice spark off the bench. The raptors bench is full of guys not even worth naming save for Calderon and Amir Johnson. Calderon will see time against Maynor, a matchup that definitely favors the Spaniard but he is not really used to coming off the bench here in TOR and it's tough for a guy like that who prides himself in being a floor general to get in any kind of rhythm or leadership role when only seeing 20 minutes a game.
A lot of this matchup depends on Barnagni imo and how Ibaka decides to defend him. If he missing a lot from the perimeter, expect OKC to keep TOR off the offensive glass for the most part. TOR is not a good defensive team either so I expect limited turnovers from the Thunder, allowing them to maximize their possessions.
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
nice callComment -
Goat let's discuss some games tonight buddy.
I think Clipjoint show up big tonight. Spurs won't win every game. Clippers should kill San Antonio on the pick and roll all night long.Comment -
Like the clippers somewhat as CP3 always seems to give Pop problems. He can't make up his mind on how to defend him in the pick and roll you're right. He was injured last year in the playoffs and that's why the Clips got manhandled that series. I still don't really like this Clippers team without the presence of Chauncy Billups. Spurs are probably the deepest team in the NBA after Miami. It's gonna be a close game for sure.
I love the Nuggets in Houston. Houston getting a lot of credit from Harden's play of late. He is going to be guarded by one of the best defenders in the NBA in Iguadala, and I expect a down game from Harden tonight. I'll get into this matchup in depth later tonight. I'm taking DEN for sure.
I like PHX a bit in Charlotte. The Cats are one of the worst teams in the league if not the worst. They won't win more than 15 20 games this year.
Stones look like a decent bet, but still haven't thought that through. I like the Celtics and a few others in a 3 teamer.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Goat the Nugs were a better team last year. Replacing Afflalo with Iguodala is an awful move. On top of that, they lost Harrington. I'm not a big Harrington guy but he does provide plenty of scoring off the bench.
I feel bad for Denver. They were on the way up but the trade they made this offseason is going to set them back a bit.Comment -
Dude Iguodala is an all-star. He's a perfect fit for the Nugs. Nugs are a great team trust me. They just need to find balance. They don't need anymore scoring, the Nuggs basically have 2 starting lineups. Iguodala is a shut down defender bro. Nuggs lost to the Lakers last year in 7 because Affalo couldn't do anything against Bryant in key moments.
This team is built to make a run come playoff time.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
And Iguodala won't do anything in key moments. He's a solid defender, but this idea that he's a lockdown defender is wrong. The last lockdown defender in the NBA was Artest during his prime. There are no lockdown guys anymore though. The truth is that Iguodala can't shoot and he can't create his own shot. He's good in transition and can occasionally get a step on a guy on his way to the rim. Problem is that if you foul him, he might brick both foul shots.
Afflalo is a good defender but a much better scorer. The NBA is not a league where you can get a "lockdown defender" and have it really impact your defense. The best defenses in the league play great Team D like the Celtics a few years ago and the Bulls now.Comment -
Bryant was a lockdown defender a few years back and Lebron is one of the most versatile defenders in history. Iguodala is a PG F. He can handle the rock, is an excellent passer, can find guys off the dribble. He's a playmaker and has always been clutch his entire career. Nuggs have enough scorers with Lawson Gallinari Chandler Faried Brewer. Affalo is a good player and defender as well but he's not the passer or playmaker Igu is.
Anyway I like the nuggs I'll write something up later. Do you like anyone other than the Clippers? That's too risky of a game.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Goat the risk is minimal with the Clippers. You're getting a good team at home in a coinflip.
I think Memphis is in a tough spot tonight having to go up to Milwaukee with Houston and Miami on deck. I like the Warriors tonight with the Cavs coming off a big upset win. Utah should beat the Lakers but not sure yet on that one.Comment -
goat, like your write ups but have to agree with twizzle on iggy. most what you said is accurate but spent too much time watching him play. wasn't clutch in philly. that was one of their big problems last year. they didn't have anyone to take last shot. andre missed too many. one of reasons he's not in philly anymore.
looking forward to bynum in the lineup. will be much better team. don't get me wrong Iguodala is still very good player. don't know what happened to his foul shooting, much better over career than last year. hope he gets it back and wish him good luck in denver.Comment -
Iguodala >>> Affalo. Not even a discussion on that one.Comment -
PLAY 13: DENVER +3 -115 RISK $230 TO WIN $200
PLAY 14: NUGGETS ML/SUNS ML/CELTICS ML Risk $100 to win $343
PLAY 15: SUNS ML -145 Risk $145 to win $100
Denver is looking a lot sharper the past couple of games. The Rockets are not a good team and I highly doubt they make the playoffs. A lot of love surrounding this team because of some recent great performances by Harden. Tonight Harden will have to deal with Andre Iguodala, one of the top 3 perimeter defenders in the NBA imo. Iguodala struggles guarding quicker guys with speedy dribbling, but Harden is more of a crafty dribbler with a deceptive first step. Harden struggled against the bigger Wesley Mathews in the last game against Portland and while I expect him to play solid tonight, I think Igu will make him a volume shooter and force the Rockets to find a second option. Iguodala doesn't need to be a huge factor offensively in this game. Look for him to be a threat on the glass and in the passing game as always.
When Harden doesn't score 30+, this Houston team is not very good at all. Their second option is Jeremy Lin --a pg with some skills but he will be facing one of the best young PGs in the league today in Ty Lawson. It is absolutely grueling chasing this kid around for 4 quarters. He never spots moving and might be the quickest (not fastest) player in all of basketball. Lin is not a very good defender, and I see him struggled on that end of the floor tonight.
Asik was a good acquisition for this team. Big, an offensive rebounder with good hands. Asik will face a combination of Koufus, McGee, and Mozgof tonight probably. I'm not an advocate of Karl bring McGee off the bench as he is one of the most athletic C's I've ever seen play the game. He's a mental nutcase but if this guy continues on this path, he'll be a stud in a few years. The Nuggets have the size at the C position to give Asik some different looks. Asik should play well but it's always tough when you have the luxury of throwing 3 different guys at him.
Patrick Patterson is not a starting player in this league. He's a mid range jump shooter at the PF position. Faried never has any plays called for him in this system. He's a guy that's going to get you the lose balls, slam the glass, and clean up anything down low on the offensive end. Still improving as a defender but I doubt Patterson can keep up with Faried's intensity.
Parsons is a pretty good young guy that's going to play a lot a lot of minutes this year. The Rockets are really lacking at the 3 spot. Parsons will have to guard Gallinari tonight--a very similar play to Parsons--but just a bit better on the offensive end. Gallinari and Parsons are both solid rebounders, the play very similar defense. Gallo just a little more effective as he can not only shoot but has the ability to put the ball down on the deck at 6'10.
The Rockets run a hard dribbling offense. What I mean by this is they always give it to their first option after crossing the timeline. The first option here is a high pick with Asik. If Denv. is able to trap that effectively, Houst will have about 12 sec left on the shot clock. Harden will pull out and gives it to Lynn if he can't make a play, but more often then not he will try to create a play for himself or someone else on the team. Lynn essentially tries the same thing with either Patterson or Asik. This is a stagnant offense for the most part, too much dribbling, with really only 1 knock down shooter on this team in James Harden.
The Rockets bench is kind of a mess. They do have Morris and Delfino who are pretty solid, but Aldrich Tony Douglas, Dequan Cook--no one that good. Cook should get some time in this game as you need to hit 3s in order to stay with Denver. Delfino is a guy that can create his own shot when needed.
The Nuggets counter with the best bench in the NBA by far. A. Miller, Wilson Chandler, Brewer, McGee. All of these guys can create their own shots at will. A. Miller is basically a starting PG coming off the bench--bringing him in to face Tony Douglas. I expect Miller's veteran savvyness to play here, and for him to get the better of Douglas in the post tonight. Look for a good game from this Denver bench as the Rockets don't really have any good defenders coming off their bench.
Not going to say much about the other two games as I'm in a hurry right now, but PHX has significant advantages in this game. PHX is starting Beasely at the 3 this year, a wise decision imo as Scola and Gortat are both back to the basket/pick and roll players and Beasely like to play off the dribble. I don't see any chance that Kidd Gilchrest can hang with Beasley tonight. He's not used to facing guys like this in college who are 6'8 and can dribble the basketball. Gragic is a good PG. A knock down shooter, a great passer, a solid defender. The guy just gets better every year. Kemba Walker should be able to get his on him, but Dragic has about 5 inches on Walker and Gortat/Scola setting screen on all on the smaller Walker should give Dragic some easy lanes to the bucket. Walker will have a difficult time fighting through screen tonight.
When Byron Mullons is the 2nd option on your basketball team, you have some issues. The Suns have far too many players who can make things happen on the offense end. Brown off the bench is a better player than anyone in a Bobcats uniform.
Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA at guarding the perimeter. There is no comparison. They will be the worst when the year ends. The Suns have a few knock down shooters so expect that weakness to get exposed tonight.
Don't see anything that warrants a big play tonight. Lot of games where I see no value. I'll probably make a play on the late game. Look at for a $600 play later this week.
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
PLAY 16: LAKERS -1.5 2ND HALF (@ UTAH) (51-41 UTAH AT THE HALF): RISK $55 TO WIN $50
This is simply an action bet until I figure out these night games. Lakers are playing horrible on the offensive end and are only down 10? Wouldn't be surprised if LA won this game straight up the way they are hammering Utah down low (fts, that is).
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Good work bro.Comment -
someone is HOTComment -
Nice analysis.Comment -
Goat who do u have to win it all this year? Did u bet Miami?
Ive seen +200 or more at several sites...is this not good value? Other than the fact that you'll be having money locked in for months.Comment -
No, I only bet MIA with my cousins @ +150 to repeat for $300. Unloaded on them winning it all last year at a lot of my books as it was a sure thing. Miami and LA are playing in the finals this year. That is my preseason projection and my pick is MIAMI preseason to repeat but I reserve the right to change my mind if both those teams make it.
Miami +200 is great value because they are almost guaranteed to win the East bearing any injury to Lebron or Wade... That means you have MIA +200 for the finals which they will 100% be favored in this year. But....it's not a lock like it was last year imo so the +200 doesn't have as much value as it did last year even though the Heat are a better team than they were last year.....if that makes any sense...Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Really enjoy your write-ups. Keep up the good work bud.Comment -
PLAY 18: BLAZERS -5 2ND HALF -110 risk $165 to win $150
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
What??? Where the hell does that line exist?Comment -
Haha more like it.. enjoy the boozeComment -
Goat - what kind of a player do you think T. Young will be if he continues to play 35mpg?
Is he filling in for someone or did they finally give him the SF job? Oh, maybe when Bynum is back hes bumped...Comment -
Thad young will start at pf the whole year prollyCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
YTD: 11-6. +$981.
Won't have time to update my record Sunday because I got flag football then the lions game then family time after that.
Today I'm looking hard at the Nets if Nelson doesn't play. ORL doesn't have the defensive pieces on the perimeter to handle both D Will and JJ. I'm also looking hard at a parlay of Memphis, Lakers, and one other team. Another tough tough matchup for James Harden in Tony Allen, a first team all nba G last year. Expecting the rockets to lose for sure. Looking at a few dogs. Only got a couple hours of sleep but I'm good for the day.
Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
if anyone wants to update my record weekly, I'm down to give that person a reasonable amount of points to do so.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Blazers play was play #17.
PLAY #18: Memphis -7 -110 Risk $220 to win $200
The hard dribbling offense is not gonna work in this game either for the Rockets. This team has no system or scheme. Harden with another tough matchup tonight facing one of the elite G defenders in all of basketball in Tony Allen. Without 30+ from Harden every night, I don't see anyone that Houston can win basketball games. Once it crosses the timeline, Lin usually gives it to Harden to let him create from one of the two wings with Asik and/or Patterson as the slip guy.
Randolph is not a good defender but Patterson is more of a SF imo than a PF and he's going to have a tough time keeping ZeBo off the glass tonight. Asik is a solid, hustle guy, with good D, but a short basketball IQ. Gasol one of the best passing big men in the league and expect him to use his veteran savvy tonight against the less-aware Asik.
Aside from maybe MIA, I have to think that Memphis is the best perimeter defensive team in the league today. Connoly is ferocious on this end of the floor and Lin, while pretty crafty with the ball, is actually one of the slower PGs in the league imo with a first step that won't cause the smaller Connoley problems. Lin is gonna struggle chasing this guy around through 3 and 4 pick and rolls on just a single play. He'll be fighting through over a hundred screens tonight and that should wear him out somewhat on the offensive end.
The key tonight is Parsons and Rudy Gay. Gay has a significant advantage here and look for MEM to get the ball 1) into Randolph to start this game and 2) to Gay to create any kind of iso on the elbow. Gay has one of the most explosive first steps in basketball and to ask a guy like Parsons to guard Gay, who is Memphis's best player by far, is quite a stretch. Expect Gay's length to create some problems defensively tonight too.
Memphis is a VERY quick handed team. If you turn the ball over against this team, you will pay for it. They get their hands in the passing lanes, they're ferocious and they are a defensive first team. I expect HOUS to get stuck in a lot of 4 and 5 seconds left on the clock and asking Harden or someone else to create last second offense for them which is a recipe for disaster against Memphis.
The Rockets bench is rather weak. MEM comes on with Speights and Pondexter, a 6-6 guy that can handle the ball and a knock down shooter. Bayless is another play maker off the bench.
Memphis is also one of the best passing teams in basketball and it's my opinion that the Rockets quite haven't figured out their identity on either side of the floor and when you play against a quick-handed, great passing team like Memphis without an identity, you just may struggle a bit.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment
