T-Wolves - that was awful. How the hell did the dudes butcher that. Nice pick Sando, shame they couldn't do the job for you.
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bagutinov!Comment -
Bagautinov got the well deserved decision! Was scared that the judges were going to prioritize octagon control over punches landed.. Elliot was only pushing forward and doing absolutely nothingComment -
Cheers Sando, first ever MMA bet for me too.
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Hey Sando,
If the warriors line climbs back to 107.5, would you hedge with the under? Pace of the game and the likelihood of Warriors sitting Curry & Thompson in the 4th...Comment -
jazz are still dribbling the air out of the ball down 15 with 4 min left enjoy the lotteryComment -
Was jimmy Hendrix just robbed? SurelyComment -
ROBBERY. Unreal.Comment -
Had $2500 on hendricks as a live bet halfway through the 4th round at 2.00. Feel so sick right now.Comment -
Just watch the fight for the third time. First viewing I was just Hendricks had taken it, after the third viewing I had changed my mind. Unfortunately that's how mma/boxing judging works. A lot of judged don't like to give drawn rounds but that's what the first round should have been. Unfortunately 2 gave it to gsp. The final 4 rounds were clear 10-9 rounds at 2 a piece. The draw would have been the correct result.Comment -
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the two total bets today we're very unfortunate and should have cashed.. especially the t-wolves.. 17pts in the 4th!Comment -
NBA Sunday
Memphis @ Sacramento
3* Grizzlies -2 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)Comment -
probably along the lines of the fact that the kings are full of monkies and are led by a braindead gorilla. and memphis are starting to pick things up too
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This sums it up pretty well but I'll try and be just a tad more specific.
The Pacific is my strongest division in the NBA, some may have noticed that I wager on Pacific teams more than others, I obviously follow all 30 teams, but I really play close attention to the 5 Pacific teams (my 2 favourite teams are the Lakers and Warriors). The Kings usually are no good on the road, but dangerous and unpredictable at home.
There is not necessarily a ton of value in the line, handicapped it at Griz -3, this play for me is more about instincts and match-ups. Like my good buddy SweetJones I put a lot of stock into individual match ups and the Kings have two main weapons, DeMarcus in the middle and their deep guard rotation of 4 guards (should be 5 but Jimmer has fallen out of favour with coach Malone). Memphis is well known as a defensive team and the real backbone of that is Conley, Allen and Gasol, I.e their two guards and their centre. Gasol is the reigning DPOY and despite being down on last years form he still has a solid IQ and is capable of making adjustments if DeMarcus gets on a roll. He is also one of the very few centres physically strong enough to match it with DeMarcus in the block. Conley and Allen can both play lock down D and are well suited (particularly Allen) to containing any of the Kings guards should they get hot. Thornton can definitely get hot and is a streaky shooter Thomas is particularly dangerous off the dribble and especially in late game situations. Memphis definitely matches up well with the Kings. With Landry out and Paterson injured as well, the Kings are weak at 4, and with Z-Bo coming off his best game of the young season can see the Griz again taking advantage down low.
The Kings are only 2-4 at home this year and have been dissapointing. The Griz are coming off a solid win in LA when the Lakersnkept coming at them but hey held them of for the whole game, always seeming to be in control of the situation. This was their 1st away win of the season and they will be very determined to take this game today to make sure of a minimum 2-2 road trip, with nasty away games still to come on their Pacific swing against the Clip's and Dub Nation.
The Kings have actually been a surprisingly good defensive team this year, but are only scoring the rock at 93.9 ppg, one of the few teams who score less than Memphis. The Griz struggle with offensively potent teams who can rack up the ponts, yet there are not many defensively structured teams who can beat the Griz "at their own game".
the Griz are currently at 4-5 and are the forgotten team in the West, however this currently makes them a great "value" team as they are clearly better than their record shows, and will still most likely be a playoff team this season.
ATS stats are against the Griz in this match up, they have been the worst team to bet on this early season, however the Kings ATS stats are rather poor as well. I'm trusting my instincts on this one and feel confident the Griz will grind out another solid win. As always if the Kings fall significantly behind they are capable of imploding like no other, usually instigated by DeMarcus - who can be a fantastic momentum killer when things don't go his way.
The Griz are simply the more talented team and despite being on the road they should also be the better rested team today.Comment -
dead on analysis. good luck sando
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Thanks for all the points lads, it's very reassuring to known that you guys haven't lost faith in me.
This is what's going on in my world...
I'm immersed in sports 24/7, around this time of the year I tend to think about the NBA all day every day, and when I'm not thinking about the NBA I'm thinking about MMA and boxing. When I sleep I usually have sports related dreams, when I'm cooking or doing the dishes I'll have my iPhone hooked up to a radio in the kitchen banging out NBA podcasts one after the other. When I go to bed I usually lay in bed reading NBA articles until I fall asleep, often as I fall asleep my Ipad falls out of my hands and hits me in the face. It never ends for me...
So anyway when you are immersed in sports 24/7 and you are interacting with guys on twitter and SBR telling you how good you are, sometimes it can get to your head, and I will admit I do constantly suffer from arrogance in regards to many sports (mainly NBA and rugby league) as well as subjects like betting, investing, trading, etc. sometimes it gets to the point where I think I'm better than the pro handicappers that actually work for the books and that's when I make mistakes. I think the very fact that I have been so successful in multiple sports over the last 12-24 months has made me forget just how hard it is to maintain a winning edge in sports investing. While I have had considerable success across multiple sports, I am still far from a professional, both in attitude and results. There is much still to learn for me and plenty to improve upon.
I spend so much time immersed in the NBA world hat it gets to the point where I find "angles" on every 2nd game and on a daily basis I can have as many as 10-15 plays before I start scratching them of my list. I clearly have not been selective enough with my plays (especially as its so early in the season) and combined with my totals system just sucking at the moment, and my extraordinary bad luck with the team totals (example - T-Wolves yesterday need only 17 points in the 4th to hit their over 206.5 and they score 16 and we lose by the hook) I have had a rough start to the season, yet we still are about even for year despite everything. I will update my season record today.
So the plan is to keep up the work, maintain focus, be selective with my plays, severely cut down on the totals (making adjustments and paper trading) and start stringing together some winning days back to back. I have the utmost faith that I will have a successful NBA season, my knowledge of both the game, the players, and investing in general is the strongest it has ever been. It's a long season and there is no need to "kill it" every day. Grinding out profits is the name of the game. So thanks everyone for the support. I couldn't care less about the actual 2 point donations (I just gamble all my points away on Baccarat and stupid parlays anyway) but it is the meaning behind seeing so many people donate a few points that makes all the hard work so rewarding.
PS - I may seem like a loser to some, posting plays on Friday and Sat nights and spending so much time on research and SBR. The truth is I love sports and I am happiest when I am doing sports related activities (including playing sports). I have a good job that pays well and allows me tons of free time for research, I have a nice girlfriend, and some pretty nice stuff. I used to have lots of friends, not so much anymore. I still in theory have plenty of mates, it's just that I'm not very good at staying in contact with people and I'm kind of anti-social, I don't go out much anymore, however I have been through some really hard times in the last 5-10 years and these days I find I'm perfectly happy at home in my own company.
Cheers and sorry for the rant...
Last edited by sando; 11-17-13, 04:47 PM.Comment -
BOL this season, much respect to the committed time
Im also interested in which pod casts you listen toLast edited by BCC585; 11-17-13, 05:07 PM.Comment -
Good post mate, started to follow you lately, could be a better start, but I'm sure it'll be much better from now on
Could you post your twitter?Comment -
@Mr_Sando (also my Tennis Insight handle if anyone is a member there).
Well in order of how I rank them (not interested in all the jokes and off topic Hollywood crap, just want to talk basketball)
1. Hangtime podcast (Sekou Smith and co). Very sharp guys but only 1 per week.
2. Eye on Basketball (CBS Sports) Far too much Hollywood crap but when they get around to basketball it's excellent. - Daily
3. NBA Lockdown (Bruce Bowen) - Daily
4. Believe the Hype - Two Aussies who are rabid NBA fans and very knowledgable - Every couple days?
5. The Starters - Again far too much jokes and nonsense but the basketball stuff is good - Daily
6. Full Court Press - I love this one but they haven't done one since the pre-season endedComment -
Great post.
Thanks for sharing.
Bol.Comment -
Great write up Sando, myself and so many others have been following your thread for a while, and im sure there are plenty of others who never post on here who also follow. Its hard to find people who are honest, humble and so dedicated. Its obvious that you don't do all of this just to make some guys on a forum happy, but you do a great job and im sure you have the respect of many including myself whether your winning or losing.
Keep up the awesome work, we all have bad days and we can make mistakes, we are all human after all.
Thanks Sando your a legend in my books
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Sando, I'm with you on the Grizzlies tonight. Good luck!Comment -
Adding...
Late game - Pistons @ Lakers
1* Lakers ML (+115/$2.15 5Dimes)
1* Lakers +2.5 (-108/$1.92 Sportsbet)
1* Lakers 1st Half ML (+110/$2.10 Sportingbet)
As bad as the Lakers are I still don't understand how the Pisotns are favoured in this match up, in fact I don't even think it should be a pk em, more like Lakers -1
The Lakers in their defence have had arguably the toughest schedule to start the NBA season and do already have two statements wins over the Clippers and Rockets. It's their consistency that is the problem. When those 3's aren't dropping... Well D'Antoni's system is the definition of "live and die by the 3 ball"
Lakers might only be 2-3 at home but two of those losses were against far superior teams in the Spurs and T-Wolves with their last outing a dissapointing loss to the Griz, when they definitely had their chances to win.
Pistons are 1-3 on the road and i'm not going to get into to a whole bunch of numbers or ATS stats, however the one stat that I do find mind blowing is that the Pistons are only 2-38 in their last 40 road games against WC opponents.
In theory the Pistons should be a really good defensive team, the culture and history is certainly there, but they are actually giving up over 100 ppg. Of course the Lakers are far from a stellar defensive unit either, however if we were talking about a shoot-out type scenario at home at Staples, I would back the Lakers all day long against the Pistons. Lakers have so many guys who can get hot from beyond the arc, whereas the Pistons have J-Smoove jacking up 6-7 3 pointers per game.
The Pistons have all the potential pieces to be a dominant and downright intimidating defencive menace in the post and if the Lakers had to rely on Pau's faded post game and Kaman's mid range jumpers for the bulk of their scoring I would indeed be worried. What the Pistons don't have are solid perimeter defenders. They rank poorly in most relevant 3pt defensive categories and the Lakers rank 2nd behind only GS in both points from 3pt and % of points from 3pt. As a team they are shooting the 3 ball at over 40% As a team the Pistons are allowing 39.1% for 2nd worst in the league.
I can really see the Lakers playing small and bombing the lights out tonight and have no doubt they will live around the perimeter. For all D'Antoni's faults he is the absolute master at running plays that result in open looks from beyond the arc. If thenLakers can hit their 3's at 35% + tonight, then the Pistons will be in big trouble even though Drummond and Monroe will probably get plenty of easy points in the paint.Comment -
Well said mate, that makes 2 of usGreat write up Sando, myself and so many others have been following your thread for a while, and im sure there are plenty of others who never post on here who also follow. Its hard to find people who are honest, humble and so dedicated. Its obvious that you don't do all of this just to make some guys on a forum happy, but you do a great job and im sure you have the respect of many including myself whether your winning or losing.
Keep up the awesome work, we all have bad days and we can make mistakes, we are all human after all.
Thanks Sando your a legend in my booksComment -
Tough game to call. GL.Comment -
lakers good as home dogsComment -
Lakers are my team, but I just don't trust Pau to produce any offense let alone do anything defensively against Drummond and Monroe. I'll make a game time decision on this one. Good luck to all.Comment -
Yup, Sando you know I love you (lol) but these looks like one of those where you selection criteria might not have been at its top. Its odds that are not that far off from even/pk and you are playing them trusting a lot on their 3p shooting. All advanced stats don't actually point in a favorable match-up for either way but if I'm looking at player by player I honestly feel like the Pistons will kill the Lakers inside and I doubt Wes Johnson/Henry/Young or whoever plays the most at SF won't take advantage of Smith and, on the other side, might indeed get taken advatage of (although we obviously can't count on the Smith that shoots 7 trees a game to really take advantage of anyone). Also the Pistons are top of the league in fastbreak points per game and Lakers transition D is below average. Will be a gametime decision around here too and as always I love the insight anyway!
Liked your rant above a lot as well. BOL either way as always dude!Comment -
Hey am I missing something here? I thought Memphis was playing LAC tonight, not Sacramento? I bought a line Memphis +9 on them.
Edit: Nevermind I see that's tomorrow. My book makes it confusing and I lost my phone on Friday so I don't have my sports app to check games against.Comment
