Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[davopnz]

sando any thoughts on tua/ustinov?

[RedDevil89]

Wow so many of you guys from Canberra! If I was staying for longer I would have liked to catch up with some of you guys! Only here overnight and back to Sydney tomorrow! Thinking if we should take the little man to the zoo or not! All I know is ill be shattered Monday morning for work!

[sando]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2645000-rugby-league-world-cup-2013-a-p8.html#post20270218

plays tonight

[iWin]

For those of you that are too lazy, his rugby play was

England v France

2* England 1st Half -17.5 (-119/$1.84 Sportsbet/IAS)

[italianbandit]

tough crowd - you brooklyn and detroit tough guys!

You're right Tommy, I had too much esspresso. What's your excuse NC?

[sando]

UFC 167

Great Card - So many lives dogs today

(MMA/Boxing record - up over 30 units and hitting at around 60% despite constantly wagering on big ML dogs - have to update spreadsheet with most recent results).

2* Ali Bagautinov (+145/$2.45 Pinnacle)

1.5* Lawler/McDonald Under 2.5 rounds (-117/$1.85 Pinnacle)

1* Chael Sonnen (+170/$2.70 Bet365)
1* Sonnen v Lewis Over 2.5 Rounds (-181/$1.55 Pinnacle)

1* Donald Cerrone (-115/$1.87 Pinnacle)

0.5* Brian Ebersole (+180/$2.80 Pinnacle)
0.5* Brian Ebersole via decision (+292/$3.92 Sportsbet)

0.5* Thales Leites via submission (+276/$3.76 Sportsbet)

[Bdolan33]

Sonnen v. lewis?

[cind3r]

Sonnen v. lewis?

Sonnen vs Evans obviously

[sando]

NBA Saturday

Bad day yesterday, too many plays. I'm not being harsh enough with my selection criteria. Have always had success as a high volume better, but regardless it is definitely time to tighten things up a bit, especially with my totals, as my system is really struggling early in the season. Going to keep my card real tight today.

Boston @ Minnesota
2* T-Wolves team total Over 106.5 (-109/$1.91 Sportsbet)

...more to follow

[sando]

Philly @ New Orleans
2* Pelicans -8.5 (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)
1* Pelicans -5 1st Half (-109/$1.91 Sportingbet)

*Going to continue with the Sixers 1st half fades, which have been very successful (apart from yesterday against the Hawks) so far this early season. Also MCW is out and Anderson is in, two changes I like very much, especially Anderson being back as he spaces the floor so well and gives Davis more room to work in the block, and mono-brow has beet hot to start the season. They will definitely see minutes together will Stiemsma being out. Anderson is so important to the potential success of this young Pelicans team (despite the trade rumours). I actually feel like the Pelicans will put a complete beat-down on the Sixers tonight...

[sando]

Brooklyn @ LA Clippers
1* Clippers 1st Half -6

Inidana @ Chicago
2* Pacers ML (-109/$1.91 Pinnacle)

Pacers = motivation?
A. What more motivation do you need than to keep your unbeaten streak/best ever start to an NBA season going? However...
B. The Pacers consider the Bulls their rival in the East - The Bulls have publicly stated that they don't care about the Pacers and there is no rivalry and that the Heat are the team they consider to be their rivals.
Are the Pacers the better team defensively? At this point in the season yes (maybe not by the time playoffs roll around)
Are the Pacers the better team offensively? - Easily.
Team cohesion? Pacers again. Their ball movement is smooth (except when Hill sometimes holds onto the rock for too long), they are easy on the eye and they are playing great team basketball. The Bulls offence has looked jerky and static with far too much 1-1 iso play from Rose and even Butler. It's like Thib's offensive play book is at a high school level? (yet his defensive schemes are world class).
I stupidly forgot one of the big trends from last season "first game without their star player..." yesterday when jumping on the Raptors. Also it's kind of scary for Bulls fans that the one and only time the Chicago offence has looked great this season was when D-Rose didn't play. Also remember the Bulls were massive over-achievers (compared to pre season predictions) last year playing great team ball on both ends of the court with D-Rose out for the season.
Long story short - Pacers are the better team at both ends of the floor, better cohesion, chemistry and confidence is through the roof, they match up great with the Bulls at every position bar PG and I actually believe this game still means more to the Pacers than it does the Bulls (despite the Pacers having a great record and the Bulls a poor one and the game being played in Chicago).

[sando]

Sorry guys literally as i was typing my write up on the Pacers, the news was announced no D-Will, Lopez or Pierce tonight for the Nets, so the HT line has jumped from -6 to about -8 as far as I can tell so I will be fair and cancel the Clippers 1st Half play as no-one else will be able to get it at -6

Brooklyn @ LA Clippers
1* Clippers 1st Half -6 - Cancelled

[NBA Maniac]

Sorry guys literally as i was typing my write up on the Pacers, the news was announced no D-Will, Lopez or Pierce tonight for the Nets, so the HT line has jumped from -6 to about -8 as far as I can tell so I will be fair and cancel the Clippers 1st Half play as no-one else will be able to get it at -6

Did you book it ??
If yes, why cancel ? This is your picks/bets thread...

On Betfair you can get Clippers -4.5 (1st half) at the moment 1.67 lol

[selte]

Have you got more plays coming Sando? Else I'll go to bed

[Crowing Capers]

Good call NBA maniac.
Sando if you locked in -6 it's a play for yourself mate. Your record should count at that...

[sando]

Denver @ Houston
1* 1st Quarter Over 53 (-104/$1.96 Pinnacle)

Atlanta @ NY
1* Hawks +4 (-105/$1.95 Pinnacle)

Utah @ GS
2.5* Warriors team total Over 107.5 (-109/$1.91 5Dimes)

Utah's scoring defence is average and their shooting defence is very poor (allowing 46.5 fg%). Not good against a team who has arguably the best shooting back ever seen in the NBA, who is ranked 6th in scoring at 105.2ppg and 2nd in effective fg% at 56.1% and 2nd in shooting at 49.1%. Plus 3 of their 4 home games have gone way over this number.

[sando]

Have you got more plays coming Sando? Else I'll go to bed

That should be it mate. Being very selective today, time to turn this ship around.

Did you book it ??
If yes, why cancel ? This is your picks/bets thread...

On Betfair you can get Clippers -4.5 (1st half) at the moment 1.67 lol

I did get the wager on (I usually place my wagers and then post immediately, but unfortunately the 5-10 minutes I spent writing up the Pacers play was the time that the news broke (I already knew no D-will and suspected no Lopez, but was unaware of PP).

Anyway I have always strived to be fair and transparent and not post bullshit lines that other people can't get, just for the sake of my own record. So I have no problem removing the play.

[Steve_Gennison]

Free bet on luxbet. Details below.
Combine a couple of races and a few sports for a 5-leg Multi that pays $10 or more for a $1 bet, and regardless of whether you win or not, we’ll give you a Bonus Bet equal to your stake up to $50.*

[cind3r]

UFC 167

Great Card - So many lives dogs today

(MMA/Boxing record - up over 30 units and hitting at around 60% despite constantly wagering on big ML dogs - have to update spreadsheet with most recent results).

2* Ali Bagautinov (+145/$2.45 Pinnacle)

Taking Bagatinov. Can't go wrong with Russian Sambo practitioners!

[Rustyglobes]

UFC 167

Great Card - So many lives dogs today

(MMA/Boxing record - up over 30 units and hitting at around 60% despite constantly wagering on big ML dogs - have to update spreadsheet with most recent results).

2* Ali Bagautinov (+145/$2.45 Pinnacle)

1.5* Lawler/McDonald Under 2.5 rounds (-117/$1.85 Pinnacle)

1* Chael Sonnen (+170/$2.70 Bet365)
1* Sonnen v Lewis Over 2.5 Rounds (-181/$1.55 Pinnacle)

1* Donald Cerrone (-115/$1.87 Pinnacle)

0.5* Brian Ebersole (+180/$2.80 Pinnacle)
0.5* Brian Ebersole via decision (+292/$3.92 Sportsbet)

0.5* Thales Leites via submission (+276/$3.76 Sportsbet)

Thanks alot for your picks today Sando,much appraciate it. I've never played UFC before but I know underdogs can get up regularly, how confident are you about Bagautinov winning today?

[sando]

Taking Bagatinov. Can't go wrong with Russian Sambo practitioners!

Thanks alot for your picks today Sando,much appraciate it. I've never played UFC before but I know underdogs can get up regularly, how confident are you about Bagautinov winning today?

Sambo has proved very effective in recent times against "western style" fighting techniques, and Bagautinov is a world champ (in the final he crushed his opponent in 35 seconds at the 2012 Sambo World Championships). He is a bit of a midget, I worry about him being so small, but otherwise he is tough as (like most Russians) and he hits hard. Odds represent great value, he should not be this big of a dog by any means. Probably because Elliot is well know where as Ali is only fighting outside mother Russia for the 2nd time and 1st time in US. It's my biggest play today so I guess you could say I'm pretty confident.

[miss_sbets]

GL today

[davopnz]

Free bet on luxbet. Details below.
Combine a couple of races and a few sports for a 5-leg Multi that pays $10 or more for a $1 bet, and regardless of whether you win or not, we’ll give you a Bonus Bet equal to your stake up to $50.*

terrible promotion...basically they're asking you to throw away your money and replace it with a bonus bet, don't think i'm gonna be hitting a 5 leg multi that pays 5-1

[cind3r]

Sambo has proved very effective in recent times against "western style" fighting techniques, and Bagautinov is a world champ (in the final he crushed his opponent in 35 seconds at the 2012 Sambo World Championships). He is a bit of a midget, I worry about him being so small, but otherwise he is tough as (like most Russians) and he hits hard. Odds represent great value, he should not be this big of a dog by any means. Probably because Elliot is well know where as Ali is only fighting outside mother Russia for the 2nd time and 1st time in US. It's my biggest play today so I guess you could say I'm pretty confident.

Rustam and Khabib, two recent Sambo newcomers both delivered on their UFC debuts (and still undefeated). Today will be the third. Really confident about this one, but it's MMA and absolutely everything can go wrong.

[sando]

Ty Lawson Under 21.5 points (-114 Sportsbet) - play it for 1 unit.

I won't count this as an official play as the game starts in 5 minutes, so probably not many will see this.

Despite averaging 20.3 ppg, Lawson has only surpassed 21 points twice this season (from 7 games) and he has not yet faced a defender of the caliber of Beverley, who is solid both on the perimeter and on-ball. Houston is surprisingly a poor defensive team (at the moment) and to be giving up 105.8 ppg (3rd worst in NBA) seems to support a Lawson Over prop, rather than an under. However the main reason I like this play is that he is coming up against an excellent on ball defender in Beverley, who is quick (really needed against Lawson) and has smothering perimeter D. He left the last game with an eye injury and while he is good to go tonight, there is a small chance his depth perception on his shot might be just a tad off. Also Lin has shown a big improvement in his on ball D lately.

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* Orlando -2 2nd Half (-110 Pinnacle)

[micase]

Ty Lawson Under 21.5 points (-114 Sportsbet) - play it for 1 unit.

I won't count this as an official play as the game starts in 5 minutes, so probably not many will see this.

Despite averaging 20.3 ppg, Lawson has only surpassed 21 points twice this season (from 7 games) and he has not yet faced a defender of the caliber of Beverley, who is solid both on the perimeter and on-ball. Houston is surprisingly a poor defensive team (at the moment) and to be giving up 105.8 ppg (3rd worst in NBA) seems to support a Lawson Over prop, rather than an under. However the main reason I like this play is that he is coming up against an excellent on ball defender in Beverley, who is quick (really needed against Lawson) and has smothering perimeter D. He left the last game with an eye injury and while he is good to go tonight, there is a small chance his depth perception on his shot might be just a tad off. Also Lin has shown a big improvement in his on ball D lately.

Funny you should post this play, Luxbet were offering $2.50 for O21.5 pts and as I tried to put my bet on the odds blew out even further to $2.60. Easy enough arb opportunity, I'm just wondering who was hammering the under when it was priced at $1.60.

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* T-Wolves -4.5 2nd Half (-107/$1.93 Pinnacle)

[Speedy88]

Great thread Sando. Keep up the good work. Are you from Australia or New Zealand? Thinking about making a trip to one of those this upcoming summer.

[elPkay]

Bulls ended Miamis 27-game winning streak last season and now this. It's like they read your writeups and try to do the exact opposite thing.
George totally off today and the Bulls out of control.. :/

[Cornelius]

minnesota not scoring at all.. in the 4Q

[Cornelius]

unbelievable 17pt 4th quarter by the t-wolves they didnt even try lol

[Vinnie Paz]

Guess I'm not the only one who got 106 lol changed on me just as I was putting it in, damn. Tailed the pelicans though too so win & a push. Thanks again sando

[Donkey]

Lets go Bagautinov do it for manlets around the world

[Cornelius]

Guess I'm not the only one who got 106 lol changed on me just as I was putting it in, damn. Tailed the pelicans though too so win & a push. Thanks again sando

I was lucky to to have it on 106 and not 106.5 so I got a push instead of a loss.