Phuck yeah dragons!!
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Dare I repeat it...what I said last week...betting M/L any team over $4 (in this case about 7.15) is free money...Comment -
Wow
Dragons win a in a massive boil over.
Bookies just cleaned up.
Who was the guy who took Dragons ML?Comment -
Wtf I bet dragons 1-12 but it says I lost?
I thought that includes overtime? Wtf so pissed offComment -
what a disgrace...at least dragons winning made me feel better about my souths line bet losing but still my horrific losing streak continues....fark you souths, chumpsComment -
I had small bet on Dragons ML and a free bet on dragons 1-12 at luxbet...which apparently I lost
does anyone have a link to the T&C on luxbets site which explains the rule with margin bets?
nvm got it
4.7.10 Rugby League
(a)
Payouts are based on the official declared result including the end of any extra
time But, conditions may apply to specific be
tting options. Specifically, Head to Head,
Line, Totals, Tryscorers, and Scoring Play markets include extra time. Margin Betting
and HT/FT Doubles are resulted at the completion of normal time: i.e. they exclude
extra time. A draw price is included in Margin Betting.
Comment -
always worth half a unit and even more so on MNF. Rohan do you have any stats on MNF large dogs. I was very happy the Dragons scored but was waiting for the conversion to see if my under 40.5 was going to lose. The penny dropped and no conversion . The half time under bets are also good value , sometimes pays to spilt your bet in two .Comment -
S22 - awesome call on Nightengale, I smashed that prop too. Always nice to get 100 metres plus from your player in the first half.
I had under 40 so feel moderately screwed at the push but I will take it.
Rohan - this is why this bet hardly ever works for most people. Even though I KNOW it's plus EV long term I couldn't pull the trigger on Dragons tonight. Shame Benny boy shame!Comment -
I'm a Dragons fan so I took some of the ML as an entertainment bet
I don't think any blind dog over $4 is +EV but
-Underdogs on MNF
-Underdogs against a team off the bye
are trends wroth looking at.Comment -
rohan22no posted the stats over the last 7 or so years earlier in the thread and it most certainly is +EV.Comment -
Angelo,
Standby - I will have data for you shortly.
Dr.Gonzo - crunch the numbers before you say its not worth looking at. Believe me, blind betting underdogs IS worth looking at, today being a prime example. The other 2 things you mentioned are also definitely worth it, another trend I want to analyze is backing against a team that has just come off a big win, or an unexpected win (again, tonight would be a good example). I havent quite figured out how to do that in excel yet, but im getting there.
Standby for crunched numbers - just gotta update my spreadsheet for the last few rounds.Comment -
[QUOTE=rohan22no;19212504]I had small bet on Dragons ML and a free bet on dragons 1-12 at luxbet...which apparently I lost
does anyone have a link to the T&C on luxbets site which explains the rule with margin bets?
nvm got it
Margin bets have 5 options
1-12 both teams
13 plus both teams
draw
Gives you the option for a draw after normal time.. Golden point is for head to head and line betting as well as over undersComment -
If you guys went on sportsbet they had the total at 40.5!Comment -
They had it at 40 when I looked, but the 'pick your own total' line of under 40.5 was $1.89 for a while, I managed to sneak on before they fixed it up to $1.68. big mistake to make, might be worth watching when there are late movements in lines or prices for the total.Comment -
Pretty sure Nightengale is 4/4 on the overs for me, incredibly involved winger always. Goodwin was half asleep in the first half .. I really like him, think he is improved out of sight this year, thought with inglus out the backs will need to pick up more. I thought he was a good candidate being up against Cooper coming back from long lay off. Anyway.. Maybe I'm over thinkingComment -
Hey guys ive had a real good look at tomorrow's MLB games and I will do my best to continually put up MLB picks! I have been so flat out over the past month or so at work and my wife is due to give birth this time next week, so in between all that and coaching soccer etc hasn't left me much time! I'm taking some time off from work which means ill have alot more time to have a look into capping some MLB! Keep posted I'm having a better look into the games I can already see a possible 3 or 4 plays I like! First game starts at 9am AEDT (9.5hrs from now)! Ill try post it atleast an hour before game starts and iill keep a record of the plays!Comment -
Ok guys, I hope you guys find these stats useful.
The sample is every game of NRL played since Round 1, 2004 until the end of round 17, 2013 (1873 games)
These are "What would have happened if...." scenarios
1.
Bet on every underdog with odds greater than 2
Betsize $100
no of games 1873
no of bets 1764
no of wins 620
Strikerate 35.1%
Outlay $176,400
P/L $364
ROI 0.2%
2.
Bet on every underdog with odds greater than 3
Betsize $100
no of games 1873
no of bets 581
no of wins 156
Strikerate 26.9%
Outlay $58,100
P/L $5,094
ROI 8.8%
3.
Bet on every underdog with odds greater than 4
Betsize $100
no of games 1873
no of bets 240
no of wins 56
Strikerate 23.3%
Outlay $24,000
P/L $4,851
ROI 20.2%
4.
Bet on every underdog with odds greater than 5
Betsize $100
no of games 1873
no of bets 111
no of wins 23
Strikerate 20.7%
Outlay $11,100
P/L $2,674
ROI 24.1%
Result and Conclusion - Over the sample from 2004 - Midway through 2013, if you had have simply bet on the underdogs, you would have done slightly better than break even. Betting on BIG underdogs though gives a much more profitable result, as we can see by examples 3 and 4. We basically see a trend that the bigger the underdog, the less efficient the market is and the higher ROI is achieved.
The strikerate is obviously inversely proportional to the odds as they get bigger, so you can expect to go many many rounds without winning a bet - but the market definitely overcompensates for big favorites and you only need a couple of wins per season to come out well on top.
@ Angelo - I'm sorry I cant give you the exact stats you were looking for, as I have not recorded on what day of the week or time the games were played (although it would be very interesting comparing day games to night games). The problem is with MNF is that it only happens once per week - and its only been around the last few seasons. we haven't seen enough MNF to give us an adequate sample from which we could draw any meaningful conclusions, but my feeling is the MNF games would follow a similar trend to the rest (value with the underdogs)
If anyone wants similar stats, stats on any specific teams, stats on home ground advantages, average scores, or basically ANYTHING to do with NRL - just give me a yell in this thread or via PM - I've got all the data here (games/scores/odds), its just a matter of applying the appropriate filters, which generally is very easy. One thing that I have not been able to do yet is figure out a way to map out in excel the scenario of betting against the previous weeks big (or unexpected) winner. If any excel gurus want to collaborate with me on this just give me a shout.
Thanks Guys.
Cliffnotes - Bet on big underdogsComment -
Well I'm laying up at home with a busted leg and crutches for transport, so thought now would be the perfect time to update my spreadsheet.
Was a very solid w/e in both AFL & NRL despite missing out on the Sunday AFL games.
AFL - 4th winning w/e in a row now, bringing me back from the edge of disaster a month ago when I was about 13 units down on the season to the current situation where I am now back in the black and up 5.03 units on the year, about an 18 unit turnaround in a month. As I have said a hundred times AFL is my best sport and I remain confident the winning will continue from here. The turnaround has been built on my totals, having hit my last 8 AFL totals in a row now and 9 of the last 10. Unfortunately my betting strategy has an emphasis on lines betting over totals so my average total bet is inherently smaller than my average ATS bet.
+7.37 units on the round.
+5.03 units on the season.
NRL - Remain red hot in NRL, having posted winning rounds for the last 5 or 6 rounds in a row now and taking my season tally to +28.02 units. Would have been another exceptional w/e if not for the horrible beat on the Raiders play where they were professionally fouled in the last 5 minutes and should have been awarded a penalty try and then had a second chance to guarantee the push with Croker dropping a pass 5 metres from the line and with no defenders in front of him for a certain 6 pointer. Regardless was still a strong round finishing up 4.72 units.
+4.72 units on the round
+28.02 units on the season
Comment -
All Sports Record
AFL +5.03 units
NRL +28.02 units
NBA +51.47 units
MLB +9.00 units
Netball +5.02 units
Soccer +5.45 units
MMA/Boxing +17.14 units
Rugby -7.16 units
Total units won/lost in 9 months of posting plays @ SBR = +113.97 unitsComment -
Here are my MLB picks as promised! With plenty of time to spare about 5hrs till first game!
1 x unit - Chicaco cubs v Arizona diamondbacks under 8.5 ($1.83 bet365) (you can get odds of $2.09 on u8.0 on sportsbet but if it finishes at 8 it's only a push)
1 x unit - LA Dodgers v Toronto BLueJays under 9.0 ($1.90 bet365)
1 x unit - Baltimore orioles v KC Royals under 9.0 ($1.87 centrebet/sportsbet)
1 x unit - Pittsburgh Pirates ML v Washing Nationals ($2.19 sportsbet)
1 x unit -Tamba Bay Rays ML v Boston Red Sox ($1.81 bet365)
2 x units - Cinciatti Reds RL +1.5v SF Giants ($1.47 bet365)
3 x units - alternative run line parlay Cinciatti Reds +2.5 and Oakland Athletics +1.5 ($1.54 bet365)
Good luck to anybody that follows! It's now 4am so ill be getting some sleep!Comment -
Just a note on the Rugby Union. I had a rough patch on the international tests which pushed my record into the negative, however once ITM cup starts next month, I have no doubt I will get back into the positive. I love ITM cup and had a great season last year. I won't tolerate losing at any sport I wager on. Pre spreadsheet - I don’t know the winning/losing % of the big plays (Over 2 units), however since I have started using the spreadsheet it is easy to work out.
4.5 unit plays 1-0
4 unit plays 2-1
3.5 unit plays 2-0
3 unit plays 5-2
2.7 unit plays 1-0
2.5 unit plays 9-4
2.3 unit plays 1-0
2.2 unit plays 1-0Comment -
Keep killing it Sando
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No - solid thinking. I simply looked at his recent results and it was a no brainer, 164 metres against Roosters (despite them LOSING 36-0), 134 against Penrith, 131 against NQ, 100 against Newcastle (in a super low scoring, grinding game), 145 against Canterbury, etc, etc.
It was such a good line I kept thinking it was a "trap", which stopped me from making it one my biggest player props of the year.
Nigtengale often comes in off his wing to take the 2nd or 3rd tackle, and ventures into the centre of the field quite a bit as well. He actively goes looking for the kicks and high balls, and makes 15+ runs a game, always giving him a good chance of breaking 120+. Interested to see what his line is set against Canberra, as I expect this to be an attacking game.
Player props have to be the most inefficient market in NRL, however I suspect you will get banned or limited at any book you bet big on them over a long enough period of time.Comment -
Mate - this is A1 analysis - awesome work! I'd been working on my own excel models on this for ages but just never had the time to finish them due to work commitments, I'd always suspected that large underdogs were +EV to "blind bet", and as mentioned I saw someone do the same analysis for NFL once as well.
Like you alluded to, the scenarios I'd be very interested in are basically "week after" scenarios. A few in particular:
- A Top 8 team that gets beaten by more than 10 points (8 points? 6 points? Have to find the "sweet spot"), and their ATS result the next week. I don't blind bet this but it's my immediate filter when looking at the weeks games. Top teams rebounding combined with lines inflated/deflated by betting public only looking at their last results.
- A Bottom 8 team that causes an upset and their ATS result the next week. I bet a profitabe "system" in tennis like this, pretty much blind betting any player that has an unexpected "huge upset". This was a cash cow at the recent Wimbledon for example. Classic let down angle ...
- A home underdog of 4+ points, 6+ points ... which leads me to thinking what do the $3+ underdog results look like home vs away? Is there a more profitable angle with this filter or not?
I've worked a fair bit with Excel and have access to guys here at work who live and breath the stuff all day, so I could help crack any problem pretty quickly I'd say. Let's talk.Comment -
Early soccer pick for tomorrow mornings UEFA Champions league qualifiers.
2 x Units - Nomme Kalju (Est) - HJK Helsinki (Fin) - Under 2.5 goals ($1.90 bet365)
Adding another play on the WTA tennis first round match at BAKU
2 x Units - O.Kalashnikova v T.Martincova - O.Kalashnikova win ($1.71 sportsbet)
Kalashnikova is the more experienced of the two ladies, she has a much better serve and is playing on her favorite surface (hard court). I think her experience, age, height, service, gives her a big mental and physical advantage over her opponent. The tournament being played in Azerbaijan is some very humid conditions and i cant see past Kalashnikova tonight.Comment -
His line hasn't changed much. 4 or 5 weeks ago I jumped on cause he was great value cause he played a couple of games at centre and one at fullback and his average numbers were down, since then he has been autoplay. This week's way over might do damage to the line. We'll seeComment -
Not a great start to my MLB picks, disappointing going 0-2 with my totals but hitting the Pirates as underdogs and Tampa as away favorites with nice odds. Both run line pick and alternative run line parlay cashed easily (2 and 3 unit wagers). At the end it was a profitable day and were all here to make a profit. Will have a look at tomorrows games later tonight. Been looking at other sports as well so i haven't had a chance to check out much MLB. I've already posted a soccer and tennis play a little earlier.
MLB record 4W-2L
PROFIT +2.56 units
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Let's hope not, above 120 metres I think it stops being an auto play. He's a very versatile player and goes looking for the ball, I'm actually surprised St George didn't use him more last night. Maybe I was more conscious of it because of the player prop bet but I was surprised how many times he wasn't being used on his side of the field, or he would move towards taking the one-out and it would be passed to someone else.
What site are you using for player stats? (If any)Comment
