Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

I feel for you Blues boys, tough loss. I just watched the game as a neutral fan and was on the edge of my seat last 5-10 minutes.

Anyway will post the rest of my plays for the w/e in 10-11 hours from now when I get to work. The only other play I've locked in so far but haven't posted is

Panthers team total Over 26.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet) for 2 units. I think you might only be able to get 27.5 now for those that are interested, and I'll have a US version of the play for you lads tomorrow. Panthers are just defying the odds and are in such unbelievable form at home lately, they are point scoring machines!

[Hanamichi23]

Hi guys I always follow this thread and I have a general question today here as I'm very curious:

Do aussie books limit/cut sharp players like basically every european book does?

[Cobra Kai]

Hi guys I always follow this thread and I have a general question today here as I'm very curious:

Do aussie books limit/cut sharp players like basically every european book does?

Yes a friend got his limits cut substantially after he went on a hot streak on the horses, and he's by no means a sharp bettor.

[sando]

Hi guys I always follow this thread and I have a general question today here as I'm very curious:

Do aussie books limit/cut sharp players like basically every european book does?

Great Question.

Personally I get every single piece of action I can with Pinnacle as they openly welcome winners at that site and you will never be restricted. Everybody who believes they have an edge in sports betting OR is sharp in whom they tail (you can make a ton of money simple knowing who to follow and in what sports) should have a Pinnacle account, they provide the best odds (overnight -103 baseball lines!) and you WILL NEVER BE RESTRICTED. (no go for US lads).

At the moment I am on a really nice run at Luxbet. As a book they are nothing special, their odds are about the same as every other Aussie book but they do have the biggest selection of NRL markets (by far) and more importantly my biggest credit limit is with Luxbet. I LOVE playing on credit, it is even more satisfying to make withdrawals when you are playing "with house money". Anyway due to my great run I have started worrying about getting restricted and here are a couple of tips I have learnt over the years.

To your "peers" everyone wants to be thought of as a sharp gambler, however as far as your book/s is concerned, the ideal situation to be in is where they (bookie) think you are a donk, a sheep, Joe Public, etc (average to poor gambler) that just gets lucky. You do not want to be flagged as a winner, trust me, it can happen very easily, either through auto computer flags or a manual review of your account/betting trends.

1. Don't make big withdrawals (if possible). Try to move money in and out of your account in smaller amounts on an irregular basis (definitely not the same day every week unless you are a credit player and have no other choice) to avoid being "auto flagged" by the system.

2. Lets say your unit size is $100. Don't always bet in exact unit amounts of $100, $250, $400, etc. vary your bets occasionally. Having a set unit price is a must for serious sports bettors however there is no reason why if you are placing a 1 unit bet - ie $100 you can't make it $105 or $95 or $108, etc or a 3 unit bet of $310 or $338, etc...

3. Put the occasional 0.25 or even 0.5 units on stupid bets like "total game score - odd or even". There are many of these "pure gambling" markets and again, serious bettors don't bet on this sort of crap.

4. My absolute favourite trick. Assuming again a unit price of $100. Ok so your account balance is $227.38 and you want to place a 2 unit bet ($200). Bet the entire balance ($227.38) I mean everything, including the cents so that your account is completely empty (a pro doesn't bet like that your bookie says). This is the sort of thing chasers and desperadoes do, it's a beautiful feint, you might want your friends to think or you as "the man" however you want to fool your bookie's into thinking you are a chump. Always do this when you are betting an amount that will almost leave your account empty.

Eventually if you keep winning you will get restricted at most books, but there are many things you can do to slow the process. Vary your betting habits as much as possible without of course doing anything too radical that will take away from your "system" or whatever it is that works for you.

[sando]

Ok got to get the NBA out of the way so that we can get stuck into a big w/e of Aussie sports. Getting in early as the Heat will get hammered ATS in this situation. Don't over think things here, sometimes the public are right and this is the logical choice in this situation. Predicting line movements is one of my strengths and I can see this line settling at -6.5 by tip off (many sites already at -6). Will do a small write-up before tip off. Also considering a 1 unit play on Heat 1st Quarter -1.5 (but need to look at some numbers first).

[sando]

Massive w/e for me in the NRL. Yes I'm playing a lot of games, however I must say this is the juiciest round of games this season IMO. Haven't had as much time to look at totals this round, the one I was really keen on was in the Panthers/Tigers game however the weather is a bit unpredictable in this one with showers forecasted to arrive right at kick off, so best to avoid for me. Got to much work to do on AFL, NBA, netball, etc to do any write ups but happy to answer any specific questions about a game or play.

[sando]

AFL
1* Kangaroos 1st Half -8.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
2* Kangaroos -18.5 ($1.93 Bet365)

Adding 1 more unit to the Kangaroos -18.5 for a total of 3 units.

2* Swans @ Crows Under 176.5 ($1.88 Centrebet)

In the last seven encounters between the two sides, the Swans have scored over 100 points only once and the Crows haven’t hit 100 once in that same period. When the Crows and Swans do battle the scores are consistently low - including the qualifying final last year which saw just 113 points scored between the two sides in a 71-42 win for the Bloods.

[sando]

I'm done with SBR for the day, heading to Aami stadium to watch my beloved Bloods (hopefully) get the job done against the Crow eaters. (It's my g/f's birthday and I'm taking her to the footy, beats some stinky museum or art gallery haha).

[ender749]

I'm done with SBR for the day, heading to Aami stadium to watch my beloved Bloods (hopefully) get the job done against the Crow eaters. (It's my g/f's birthday and I'm taking her to the footy, beats some stinky museum or art gallery haha).

nice one! enjoy Sando.

[Hanamichi23]

Thank you for your detailed response sando, and you too cobra.

Let's kill it this weekend!!

[Crowing Capers]

I'm done with SBR for the day, heading to Aami stadium to watch my beloved Bloods (hopefully) get the job done against the Crow eaters. (It's my g/f's birthday and I'm taking her to the footy, beats some stinky museum or art gallery haha).

Loving the unders play crows game. Heading down footy pk myself ,catch you in the Northern bar

[therealdealau]

I'm done with SBR for the day, heading to Aami stadium to watch my beloved Bloods (hopefully) get the job done against the Crow eaters. (It's my g/f's birthday and I'm taking her to the footy, beats some stinky museum or art gallery haha).

Enjoy mate, happy birthday to ya missus. Love the plays.

[Aussiefalconfan]

OMFG FOUND THE BET OF THE DAY

@ Bet365

HT/FT with handicap
HT Melbourne 1-18 /FT Melbourne 37+

PAYING @$10.00

[Rabbitbrew]

OMFG FOUND THE BET OF THE DAY

@ Bet365

HT/FT with handicap
HT Melbourne 1-18 /FT Melbourne 37+

PAYING @$10.00

I can't seem to find this one. Point me in the right direction.

It's alright. I got it.

You mean North Melbourne. Not Melbourne.

[Mase of Base]

Any thoughts on the rugby tonight lads?

New Zealand v France:

Betting on or against the French is probably the easiest way to go broke out there but here goes. Leaning the under as I think that total is too high for a test match especially the first of the year for the All Blacks as they always seem to have a bit of rust and usually it's not against a side as good as the French. Also points me in the direction of France +17.5, feels like one of those games where France +17.5 & under cashes or AB's and over if the French don't turn up and get flogged.

You just know the French are going to turn up for at least one of these games and probably win one, which game/s they are is the tricky question. Personally I think the AB's side being trotted out tonight is the worst in years.


Lions v Reds:

Weather may not be flash so wouldn't mind finding out exactly what it's like before playing these but:

All eyes will be on Quade Cooper in the Lions tour match against the Reds, what does that mean? He'll try to do to much and fail hopelessly imo. Should be some points though, if the Force who make scoring points in matches look nigh on impossible can get 17 the Reds should get around that and hopefully more, the Lions will get theirs they looked pretty sharp and can only improve = over 47.5 for me. A heavily juiced line of over 4.5 tries @ $1.52 looks a decent shout for parlays, second half should turn into a free for all.

[Aussiefalconfan]

I can't seem to find this one. Point me in the right direction.

It's alright. I got it.

You mean North Melbourne. Not Melbourne.

Yeh sorry I don't follow much afl yeh north Melbourne my bad

[KierenRaj]

Mate, I'm right on it. Hopefully this turns out to be like your NRL pick from last week (ht/ft double that was paying $23 or something).

[Aussiefalconfan]

Hey sando when you get back I have a question..

Being a professional bettor how did you apply for a house/unit when you first started doing it full time?

Also what advice would you give to someone whos about 1 year into his adventure of being a full time capper?

[Aussiefalconfan]

Mate, I'm right on it. Hopefully this turns out to be like your NRL pick from last week (ht/ft double that was paying $23 or something).

yeh iv been pretty money when it comes to margin bets lately lets hope it continues

[rohan22no]

I'm done with SBR for the day,

*switches computer off until tomorrow*

[Aussiefalconfan]

swans crows under is 50/50 atm

[onthefence]

One WAFL play this weekend.

Subiaco v South Fremantle
Subiaco -14.5 @ 1.90 (Sportingbet)

YTD 0-2 (-2 units)

Looked a little sketchy at half time but subi kicked 9 goals to 2 in the second half to run out 53 point winners.

Round 12 1-0 (+0.9 units)
YTD 1-2 (-1.1 units)

[Cobra Kai]

Thought that under was dead in the water at the start of the last quarter, Sando what a legend That wafl play as well cashed nicely!

[Aussiefalconfan]

2* Swans @ Crows Under 176.5 ($1.88 Centrebet)

In the last seven encounters between the two sides, the Swans have scored over 100 points only once and the Crows haven’t hit 100 once in that same period. When the Crows and Swans do battle the scores are consistently low - including the qualifying final last year which saw just 113 points scored between the two sides in a 71-42 win for the Bloods.

Thats easily worse then the mariners extra innings grand slam bad beat on the over

possible worst bad beat of all time i think

[Aussiefalconfan]

Thought that under was dead in the water at the start of the last quarter, Sando what a legend That wafl play as well cashed nicely!

176.5? you lost by .5?

[hawley]

Thats easily worse then the mariners extra innings grand slam bad beat on the over

possible worst bad beat of all time i think

You haven't been gambling for very long if you think that's a bad beat.

[Aussiefalconfan]

with 14 seconds left the guy runs 100 meters to kick a 1 point behind... when there team is down by 76

[Bbr]

Hawley dead on

[Mase of Base]

Under easily in the rugby test, French covered easily also but didn't play it. Can't wait to fade this AB's team in the tri nations.

[Bbr]

with 14 seconds left the guy runs 100 meters to kick a 1 point behind... when there team is down by 76

You aint seen nothing yet young fella

[Aussiefalconfan]

You aint seen nothing yet young fella

Please do tell your bad beat story

[hawley]

Please do tell your bad beat story

Here's one.

Bulldogs / Eels OVER earlier in the season.

Needed like 2 points in the second half.

Didn't score a single point in a blowout game.

How often does a NRL game go without a single point?

[Aussiefalconfan]

ok thats not bad, Maybe I am used to thinking if your down 76 points don't even bother just keep passing with 10 seconds left.

[hawley]

ok thats not bad, Maybe I am used to thinking if your down 76 points don't even bother just keep passing with 10 seconds left.

I think you consider the whole game, not just how it actually went over.

It seemed to be on track to go over from half time?

[Aussiefalconfan]

the funnest part of all of this is how Sydney went beast mode for 50 minutes and even after only a total of 46 in the first 28 minutes
it was still in trouble