-
Comment -
Great work Sando once again, id give you some points if I knew how !
I will be having a confident 2 unit play on Australia tonight against nz I the champions trophy, motivation being a big factor here as Australia will not want to go out in straight sets ahead of the Ashes. They'd want to play some pressure cricket ala semi finals or finals if possible. If Aussies are batting first I'll make my play straight away as in confident someone will stand up to put up a big score, if nz bat I'll most likely wait and hope they get of to a decent start so as to get better odds on the Aussies.
Cheers again Sando you are the man right now!Comment -
Great game, I wanted to take the 11+ but for some reason I couldn't change the spread on sportingbet
so I took the Spurs to win by more than 9 on bet365. Odds were alright too, so thanks for the bets!
I also took two "win by xx-xx" lines but I didn't expect the Spurs to win with such lead.Comment -
Was on both your Spurs plays Sando, but also threw in the line/total double which hit right at the end. Cheers!
Sando/anyone else's thoughts on Australia to beat NZ tonight in the cricket @ 1.70Comment -
Public are all over Australia's nuts.. This is the trophy game so motivation will be there for both teams.. Public love big games, and public love the odds makers "favorites".. Taking NZ +120.. GLComment -
Warner stood down for Australia too, although possibly not a bad thing as he has scored 9 runs in 3 innings so far on tour.
Would not be surprised if Australia's thin, ultra fragile top/middle order collapses under the pressure (again).Comment -
I like the look of this Australian team even more so now than when the Warner of late was in it. Predicting a big innings from either Hughes or Voges.Comment -
Just came home from work and checked bet365 again.
Totally forgot that one of the other bets I took was the 21+ for 0.2 units
Thanks again Sando, even if I paid you 50% of my winnings I'd be up more than I hoped when I started donking around with sportsbetting
Comment -
Anybody have any live bet suggestion for the cricket?Comment -
1 Cricket
ICC Champions Trophy Australia v New Zealand
12/06/2013 19:30
Alternate Team A Total Runs 3
Australia Under @ 1.46 (253.5)Settled against market handicap
Stake and Return Details
Bet Placed on 12/06/2013
Bet Type Over/Under
Number of lines 1
Stake per line $200.00
Channel SB Phone
Total stake $200.00
Free bets redeemed $0.00
Total amount paid $292.00
Returns $292.00
I just put under for the highest total they gave me once vogues got bowled out
easy money!! i should bet live more often!!
Comment -
Although I agree with you Sando, you are simplifying things too much mate. Pop doesn't make Green and Neal knock all those bombs down, I mean, some of them, with the game still on the line, were just ridiculous. I will say this though, if Popovich was on the bench on the otherside, he would've known that the Heat need Lebron to dominate and he would probably make him at least try to dominate.
People talk about Lebron's jumpshot... he has shot better percentages than Kobe (and other) in the past 2 or 3 seasons. Yes, I know he doesn't take as many shots, but just look at game 6 vs Boston last year. The problem is he just did not come with that focus to this game. And then couldn't get inside as well. He had 2034242342 switches during the game and only once he attacked Spliter/Duncan.
I think the Heat will take game 4 because Lebron WILL take game 4. But let's see.
Oh, and I got Spurs + 21 live eheheh. + 400, not as good as your pre-game bet but at the time when I bet that just seemed doomed to happen.Comment -
W/E Sports Update
NBA - Sweating on news of Tony Parker. My early lean is actually towards the Spurs. Have had a decent handle on both Miami & SA's form throughout the playoffs and its obvious Miami will come out fired up, I would think Heat 1st Q or Heat 1st Half would be solid plays, however I am far from convinced they will win the game, especially if the little Frenchie suits up...
AFL/NRL - A couple of tough looking rounds from a betting point of view, but once again I will be looking to make a big (maybe massive) play on MNF. Looks the game of the round to me in NRL.
Union - Will be spending a lot of time handicapping the Lions games. When you get an event like this (once every 12 years) it's obviously going to be hard for the books to put out sharp lines. Also will be spending time on Bledisloe/Tri Nations and then not until later in the year when ITM cup starts. For me Rugby is mainly "internationals" and the only provincial rugby I follow is the ITM cup, (Kiwi provincial teams play a fantastically entertaining brand of Rugby).
MMA - Hoping to have 2 or 3 plays for this w/e's card.
Netball - I do like the look of this w/e's games and am waiting for the lines to be released.
Soccer - Might start posting the occasional soccer play or two. As with Rugby I don't have time to follow individual leagues, (other than the Australian A league), it's all about international football for me and bizarrely (because I put little time into soccer) I am on a better run in soccer this year than any other sport over the last two years, although like Netball I only average 1-2 soccer plays a week.Comment -
You still have some big ufc plays in mind?Comment -
Nice call on Voges CobraKai.
Sent you a PM Sando if you get the chance to read looking forward to the weekends tips. GL!
Comment -
Well the main play I was lining up was a big play on Hendo as a small dog this w/e, but unfortunately now that I've done a fair bit of analysis on the fight I'm not so sure of it anymore mate? However I will have at least 1 big play.
Also I do have 2 x dogs that I quite like for the following w/e already.
Denis Siver @ +210
Chan Sung Jung @ +145 (The Korean Zombie)Comment -
I've retired from betting after that lions bs but there a few good internationals on this weekend, will post the plays i like for the hell of it.Comment -
Anyone else really liking Sri Lanka tonight @ $2.33? England expected to win but Sri Lanka playing to stay in the tournament. Can't see this being an easy win for England especially if they decide to bat first, I think they will try to play cautiously and may loose early wickets. Look for the Sri Lankans to hopefully bowl first and I'm also counting on Senanayake to get selected and hopefully along with Malinga they can get a bag.
What worries me though is the Sri Lankan batting as it is susceptible to collapse at times but $2.33 seems good to me and i'm sure there will be chances to hedge as I don't see it being smooth sailing for the poms.
Thoughts?Comment -
Hey guys I've had a look at the games for this weekend. There are some close games which could go either way, some games which are not worth touching.
Friday night NRL (rugby league)
Dragons v Cowboys
The cowboys are down near the bottom of ladder, they have had a well below par season. After seeing them go toe to toe with the Bulldogs for most of the game showed some promising signs given they were missing their 2 key men, Thurston (best player in the NRL) and Matt Bowen. Thurston is back and fresh this week after being rested. Expect him to have a big game, as he usually does. The dragons have been good in defense but have struggled to put on points, signing Josh Dugan has helped but i dont think its enough. Im going for the Cowboys 1-12 ($3.60) or if you want a safer option you can take Cowboys +4.5 ($1.92)
Sea eagles vs Bulldogs
Both these two teams should be in the top 4. Bulldogs runners up from last year and Manly who has been the most consistent top 4 team in the past 4 seasons. Once again this is going to be another close and probably low scoring game. I think manly will feel hard done by last weeks lost to the warriors, and they seem to be winning all the close ones this year, which was one of their flaws in previous seasons. If your going to tip either team you would have to take 1-12 margins and tomorrow im going Manly 1-12 ($2.88)
Roosters v Warriors
Roosters have been one of the benchmarks this season, with their NSW origin halves, big forwards lead by Sonny Bill Williams. The warriors one paper always rated so highly but they seem to go through some periods of playing bad football, they are one of the most incosistant teams and hardest to tip. They are looking good at the moment, playing some good attacking football which we know they are capable of! Konrad Hurrel on the centre is an absolute beast, in attack anyways. Im liking this game to go over 42.5 points ($1.90). I think we are in for an exciting game.
Broncos vs Tigers
This game is really touch and go, and i wasnt sure if i wanted to make a play on it or not. The tigers are the worst team in the NRL together with the Eels at the moment, they have plenty of injuries and have lost all their best players to other teams. Just like the Eels they are going through a rebuilding stage and might take them a few years before they become close to contending a top 8 finish. The Broncos got thumped against a hot Raiders teams last monday, but they are Home this time, in Brisbane, they have a bigger and much more better and experienced forward pack. I can see this one being a blowout as long as the weather stays dry. Broncos -10.5 ($1.92)
AFL
Carlton v Hawthorn
Its 7th vs 2nd Friday night in the AFL. Both teams dont have any big changes from last week. The Hawks won this fixture 120 to 70 last year, and to be honest i cant see this game being any different. The hawks have shown that they can play well especially against the bigger teams. They have won their last 5 games in a row. This could easily be a blowout and im going to go Hawthorn -24.5 ($1.92)
Essendon vs Gold coast
4th vs 12th. Essendon have been consistent this year and looking to hold on to their top 4 position. The suns whilst being 12th, have been showing signs of improvement, led by captain Gary Ablett is one of the favourites for the Brownlow medal and he has a great record against them. I cant go past Essendon at home, they have been putting out cosistent performances, they havent let me down yet this season, but the Suns will give them a fight and keep it close. My tip Essendon Bombers 1-39 ($2.15)
Good luck everyone, lets have another smashing weekend!!Comment -
I wont comment on hedging because I don't know much about it, but I don't reckon backing SL @ 2.33 is +EV in a vaccuum here. Yes they have the motivation factor, but on the other hand they were bowled out by NZ for 130-odd the other day, and England were pretty solid against the Aussies and have a far better attack than NZ. Could definitely go either way, but I think Eng have earned the favorites tag and the odds look about right. Would be interested in hearing others thoughts.Comment -
New Zealand beat England 2-1 in a series days before this tournment started, so I wouldnt say that England is a much better side than NZ.
I think value is with Srilanka because man for man they are by far the more talented side but obviously England is at home.
I dont think desperation plays much part in this, its not like England has qualified already.
Also something to consider is the rain. Yesterdays game was rained out .. I am not from England so I cannot comment on current conditions but if the game is likened to be shortened this will swing the game very much in favour of Sri lanka
IMO its SL at these odds or nothingComment -
I sort of agree Rohan. Of course, SL could win but their batting looks very weak in English conditions so think 2.33 is fair. I think generally motivation is pretty high for most teams now.
I like No Century @1.61 on Bet365. I really don't seeing the SL batsman scoring one and SL have a really good attack so this looks like a good one to me. Also, game could be shortened due to rain which decreases chances of a century! I also got Sangakarra top scoring @4.9 on Betfair (this also a good hedge against No Century as he is the most likely SL batsman to hit one).Comment -
Batting second seems to be tough in this tournament, but both matches won batting second have been at the Oval so going off that both teams should have equal shot. England should of got 300+ against Australia but didn't get close and were hopeless against NZ so getting decent odds fading them looks good.
On that batting second comment the Birmingham wicket looks tough to chase on, two easy losses and NZ were heading that way imo. Could be one to keep an eye on, next game is India v Pakistan.Comment -
Few thoughts on this weekends AFL
Carlton V Hawthorn
Hawks -25.5 (Centrebet) at the moment, the line will most likely move higher towards the match. Completely agree with RedDevil89 on this one, I don't see Carlton being effective enough in their forward line to make this game close. Carltons goal kicking last week vs Essendon was atrocious, this week they wont get the same amount of opportunities.
Hawks -25.5 x1.5
Richmond V Adelaide
9th vs 10th battle. My Adelaide Crows were embarrassed last week in front of their home crowd against a very inform Sydney squad. Adelaide have had a very successful record against Richmond (20-10 in the history of the two teams). Don't let that fool you here, Richmonds squad is far more superior in this matchup. I think Adelaide will be improved this week however now without another forward (Petrenko) and the rumour of moving Dangerfield to Half Back so that he doesn't get tagged, Crows will struggle to score. Richmond also have 2 young midfielders back in the side this week who have played impressive games and will add to their already strong midfield. Richmond seem to be inform after a massive road win over Westcoast in Round 10 and will be well rested after their buy in round 11.
Richmond -18.5 x3 @1.91
Richmond -40 x0.5 @3.40
Essendon V Gold Coast
I feel there was a lot to learn about Gold Coast after North Melbourne's loss last week. I think Gold Coast are more than capable of keeping this game close if the same team from last week shows up. However Essendon are very strong at home and I can see this going either way. No play for me.
GWS V Port Adelaide
I feel this game is worth a bit of a look due to the difference in form in the teams. Yes, on paper GWS don't looks so flash, however watching their game against Geelong last week I couldn't help but realise this team is the real deal and can be competitive with the best. (perhaps not for 4 quarters). Port Adelaide's season has been built on false confidence after a very easy start to the season, they are now finding it difficult to win a game loosing their last 5 in row. In round 3 this year Port beat GWS at home 134 - 78. Being this game is in Sydney, I feel GWS are definitely a chance to cover the 29.5 points.
GWS +29.5 X1 @1.91
GWS +14.5 HALFTIME x1@1.91
May be a few more plays to come for SANFL for those who are interested.Last edited by trigga50; 06-13-13, 01:25 AM.Comment -
England bowlers should be to good tonight. 2new balls from both ends will have the Sri Lankans in all sortsComment -
i have a complete diffrent look to the richmond adelaide game mate, the crows come to the mcg after playing possibly the worst game under sanderson the tigers did play there best game of the year against the eagles but something you have to take into consideration here with the tigers, they have played there best footy when they have come up against sides where the pressure on them to perform hasnt been intense eg : frematle, they go over to subi to play the hot dockers at subi were no1 would have picked the tigers to keep it within a goal, port adelaide, at the time the power were up n about, the west coast game they were in the same predicament were there would have been 1 put of 20 people that would have picked the tigers to win, the tigers agaisnt freo and west coast would have been game that most people that would have had them down for a loss which plays into the tigers hands because they dont like the pressure of them winning being on them and im gonna back that up with 2 games from last year where they were in exactly in the same position and that was against the hawks and the swans who they beat both teams by 40+. So you then look at the tigers when the heat has really been on them to perfrom this year being 3-0 and coming up agianst the pies at the g, cats at the g then the bombers at the g, these were games were the "public" thought it was richmonds time and they didnt didnt come to the party, have the tigers turned the corner to become that side that every1 expects? Not yet. this is a big danger game for the tigers the crows are gonna come out fireing no doubt, they wont have an answer for dangerfield who wont play off the half back line, tahlia IMO is a gun and is a great match up for roo, personally i would tag deliedo instead of cotchin and the danger for the crows is like of martin and big ivan in the ruck. Im taking the crows at +20.5 for 2 units best of luck and sorry for my rant hahaComment -
We are all here to give our thoughts and opinions! Although you do seem emotionally attached to the tigers? And did you mean tigers +20.5?Comment -
no i mean adelaide + 20.5 and im not attached to the tigers im a carlton fan but i live and breath afl like no other.. Adelaide can definatly win this game its a 50/50 contest, yes the crows have some issues with there fwd line but there still a good out fit players like dangerfield, thompson, douglas are very very good players and they have done really well with what they have had to deal with. The tigers are yet to beat a genuine team in the top 8 also the coach this week has come out and said that losing is not an option this week. Adelaide will hunt the tigers with furoisity from the get go its gonna be a cracker of a game, this is no more then a 2 unit play for me tho as yes the tigers are capable of getting the job done but there is just to much on the line for adleaide not to show up
also this line opened up at +21.5 and is now into 18.5 at some books
All in all im up 24 units this year in the afl whether you beleive me or not thats your choice, happy to do other write ups on other games if people like but this is sando's thread not mine as i have much respect as what he is acheiving with all his picksComment -
Adelaide plus the points looks like a great bet, don't take too much out of that west coast performance last week. The eagles haven't been firing all year. Adelaide are a good side and could quite easily win straight up.Comment -
i've taken both GC and GSW on points
Port are completely over rated team, and GSW are starting to find some form even tho they got stopped in the 4th against the cats, to even keep it that close for 3 qrts
GC are also looking really good atm i mean they win a 1 or 2 50/50 or games they weren't meant to and they have a chance of making the 8 (look at there final 4 games all winable)Comment -
i like GC points as well they are playing some really good football and they can now contest with just about with any 1 in the middle.. personnally i like the under the bombers have only conceeded 81 points per game this season and they are ranked the 6th best in the competitionComment -
My bad mate I thought you were talking about the Carlton hawthorn game for some reason! Keep up the good I'd love to hear your views aswell! I'm not personally big on AFL myself! I'm a league and soccer nut! But I have an interest in most sports like afl, union, tennis! I obviously wasn't reading properly haha! I actually agree with your Adelaide pick, I wouldn't be surprised if they even took the game!Comment -
is anyone interested in sportsbet special, San antonio for the win + patty mills to score a basket at $9.5??Comment
