Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

All sports record

NBA Play-Off Record

34-23 (59.65%) +13.82 units

ATS 20-11
Totals 9-8
Props 5-4
(2nd Half Plays 4-4 Already included in the above break down)

NBA Regular Season Record


238-207-14 +30.42 Units (53.5%)


NBA ATS/ML
171-158-11 (52%)

NBA Totals
67-49-3 (57.8%)


Total NBA record for season 2012/13

272 - 230 (54.2%) +44.24 Units


AFL

23-19 +2.16 units

*A horrible last 2 w/e's after starting the season on fire (20-10). Whilst I am very disappointed, I am also aware that my research and time put into footy has been below par and it shows in the results. Have definitely had a couple of bad beats, but that comes with the territory, as of course you wont catch me complaining when the luck does swing my way, such is life. NBA almost done for the season and will then be putting 80% of my attention on just AFL and NRL. No major sports/competitions of interest to me until ITM cup (Union) starts in late August.

NRL


6-9-2 -3.44 units

*Slowly working my way back into form after a piss poor start to the season, going 4-2 over the last 2 w/e's for +2.77 units. Starting to watch more games and get more reading done, especially as the NBA is winding down. Very confident of working my way back into positive units over the next month.


Rugby Union

7-7 +2.97 Units

*This section will come to life once ITM cup starts in August.

MLB


12-9 +7.92 units

*Really getting into baseball, it's one of my new favorite sports, however just don't have the time to put into it so probably wont be posting many plays.

MMA/Boxing


11-13 +12.74 units

*Got some massive "dog" plays coming up over the next month, starting with my boy Vitor as a nice dog next w/e.

Netball


2-0 +2.70 units

*Actually 8-0 on the season now. Have not lost a play all season. Killing the beaver ball.

Mr. Rabbitbrew's Netball - 5-1

*His only loss was a play he recommended going small on anyway. Looks like somebody else is killing the Netball this season as well. As we have both said Netball is without doubt one of the best sports to bet on both due to the weaker lines that are released and also the fundamentals of the game and the way it plays out. It tends to be easier to read the way certain teams will approach games (tactics and tempo) than many others sports.

Looks like Rabbitbrew is the new "Roxxyfish" of women's sport?

[Rabbitbrew]

Today's netball tip (only one):

Central Pulse @ Waikato BOP Magic (-5.5)

Must win game for the Magic. The defending champions risk missing out on finals all together if they drop this one. The Pulse defeated the Magic for the first time in their history by 1 goal two weeks ago. The Magic will still be feeling that loss and it's time for payback. Although the Magics shooters were terrible last week, games in Oz are generally umpired more tightly than games in NZ. They are a physical duo and will be allowed a lot more latitude in the physical contest this week. Magic also have their number one wing attack back after six weeks off with injury, which means smoother transition into the circle. During the week the Pulse coach stated that if they lose this week it's not the end of the world. I like the Magic to cover. Rated to win by 9 goals.


That's it for today's game. Best of luck!

[the tross]

Thanks for posting Rabbitbrew. Bol .

[sando]

NRL

Monday Night Football
Sydney City @ Manly

This current Roosters squad is reminiscent of the Showtime Lakers of the late 80's/early 90's. The skill and flare this unit has begun to demonstrate over the last few weeks is scary. They possess two genuine superstars of the game in SBW and Jennings, and a handful of genuine stars in Pearce, Maloney, SKD, JWH, and old man Minichiello. They head tonight into "fortress Brookvale" for a genuine test against a genuine contender after cruising through the last 3 weeks with 3 demolition jobs on the 'doggies, Panthers and Dragons by an average of 28.7 points. Manly is coming off 2 brutal matches against the Bunnies and Dragons and the Souths game was particularly physical, leaving them no doubt sore heading into this weeks game.

In's and Outs.

Manly (and NSW) will be particularly bothered by losing their #1 strike weapon in Brett Stewart. The snake is a ruthless finisher within 10m and also happens to be the games best defensive fullback which would kind of come in handy against a team that is averaging 21.9 ppg over the season and is the #1 offensive team in the competition. Steve "the thug" Matai returns for the Eagles and is a big in, he is the biggest hitting centre in the game and his defence on the left edges will be crucial coming up against the former international centre of the year in SKD and possibly the games most dynamic player in SBW, two big dangreous kiwi's who have been terrorising opposing teams down the right hand side this season.

No major in's or out's for the Roosters, with just Sam Moa slipping out of the pack and being replaced by veteran big man Frank Paul Nuuausala.


The battle in the halves is just insane with Pearce & Maloney going up against Cherry-Evans & Foran. Easily the best two sets of halves in the NRL (followed by Reynolds/Sutton from Souths). No advantage either way.

The same could be said of the forwards and the backs of both units with little seperating the forwards and backs on either team. Both sides ooze class with a wealth of talent both established and up and coming, but for me it is the potential game breakers/match winners in this Roosters side that seperates them from the Eagles. It is also worth mentioning that the centre pairing of Jennings and Kenny-Dowall for the Roosters is probably the best in the world.

Between the two teams you have more than a dozen current or former representative players, with some of both NZ's and Australia's best talent on display, but for me the X-factors mainly come from the Roosters list with Jennings, SBW, Kenny-Dowall, and Waerea-Hargraves all players who can single handedly turn a game on its head with acts of brilliance. It really doesn't help that B. Stewart is out for the Eagles, his importance to the structure of this team and their set pieces cannot be understated.

Both these teams are capable of oustanding displays of defence and there is every chance this could be a low scoring game, as you have without a doubt the two best defensive teams in the league going head to head, its just one of them also happens to be the league's best offensive team, and they are in red hot form. The scariest part - this team (Roosters) was only thrown together in the offseason, with most of their big gun's (Maloney, Sonny-Bill, Jennings, and to a lesser extent Moa and O'Donnell) coming on board for the 2013 campaign, so there is every reason to believe that there best is still in front of them as they fine tune their play-book, experiment with positions and learn each others on field habits and various nuances, etc.

The Roosters are red hot ATM and just look to have more weapons across the park. They will be keen to grab the scalp of a genuine contender, especially at "fortess Brookvale" where they have struggled recently. In fact the Roosters have been dominated by the Sea-Eagles for years, although this years version of the "Bondi boys" is one of the strongest they have fielded in a long time and they will be fired up to finally turn the tables on their long time rivals in the battle of the Northern beaches.


2.5* Roosters -1.5 ($1.90 Luxbet)
1* Under 35.5 ($1.90 Luxbet)

[amrit]

sando any plays for NBA tomorrow?

[davopnz]

sportingbet have a promo if sbw scores and your team loses you get your money back upto $100

[davopnz]

magic are a freaking disgrace,

[davopnz]

magic are so pitiful they actually take the enjoyment out of the game. this team is auto fade material, they actually don't even look like a professional team. how did they win it last year

[Mase of Base]

magic are so pitiful they actually take the enjoyment out of the game. this team is auto fade material, they actually don't even look like a professional team. how did they win it last year

It's the other sides that have improved, Pulse are a pretty decent side now with Henry fit and those shooters are better than the other girl on the Magic. Williams (now Kopua) and De Bruin have been surprisingly average though they're getting dominated. That Magic ML live looks juicy, I'm on the over which looks like it'll go down to the wire so not going to hit it.

[Rabbitbrew]

Well I misread that one. Magic got the win but not the cover.

Sorry guys.

Till next week, good punting!

[sando]

NRL[B]


2.5* Roosters -1.5 ($1.90 Luxbet) - Cash It
1* Under 35.5 ($1.90 Luxbet) - Cash It

Great w/e in NRL. 6-2 last 8 plays and back to evens on the season now.




NBA

2* OKC @ Memphis Under 184.5 (-109 Pinnacle)
1* Grizzlies -4.5 (-103 Pinnacle)

[amrit]

Sando, the total moved up to 185 any worries about that? I'm thinking about playing the under as well

[sando]

Sando, the total moved up to 185 any worries about that? I'm thinking about playing the under as well

Not for me no, I get more worried when totals have significant downward movement, as your Joe Public - casual bettor tends to prefer betting overs in general. It's a lot more exciting to cheer for made baskets than constant misses as a casual NBA fan/recreational bettor.

magic are so pitiful they actually take the enjoyment out of the game. this team is auto fade material, they actually don't even look like a professional team. how did they win it last year

Mate you should have seen them last year, the Magic were just unstoppable. After an average start to the season they went on a run that lasted 14-15 games unbeaten and they were just destroying opponents, constantly covering ATS with ease. They even did the impossible - going into a hostile Hisense arena against the Red hot Vixens in the GF and holding them to 38 points as they became the first kiwi team to win an ANZ championship. Was a cracking game. Old lady van Dyk was unstoppable, shooting @ 93.6% throughout the finals, against some of the best defenders going around.

[sando]

Futures Special

NBA

To win the Western Conference

1* Memphis (+170 Bet 365)

To win the series

2.5* Indiana (-238 Sportsbet)
Obviously if I thought the Pacers were going to lose game 4 I would wait and get a better price, but I don't think that. I believe the Pacers have the Knicks ticket stamped and will win and probably cover in game 4, so I'm jumping on this price now. Assuming the Pacers do win game 4, then the Knicks are not reeling off 3 straight wins, no chance against a defensive specialist like Indiana, who when they are on can completely stifle you and throw your entire offence out of sync.

AFL

To win the minor premiership - Geelong

*You can get $2.64 at the moment on Betfair but I'm going to wait for something better over the next couple of days.

The Cats have survived their tough early draw with an un-defeated record and they have yet to play a home game. They have one more tough game to play next week against the Pies at the G and then not only do they have a great run coming up with 7 of their 15 games to be played at Simonds Stadium but they got through a patch of games that Port, GC, GWS, Brisbane and a bye, leaving them probably on 12-0 heading into their round 13 clash against Freo at home (Simonds Stadium) assuming they are able to get over the Pies this w/e. even if they don't they will be sitting pretty on top of the ladder at 11-1 heading into round 13 with a ton of home games to end the regular season, and Kardinia Park (Simonds Stadium) is pretty much the toughest away game in football.

VFL

1.5* Geelong reserves to win the premiership. ($3.50 @ Bet36, Sportingbet, Centrebet, IAS Bet, Sportsbet)

Just like the Cats the Geelong reserves are undefeated and tearing up the VFL. The culture of winning doesn't stop at the AFL level. It spreads throughout the entire club and shows in the results. Where do you think Christensen, Smedts, and this new brigade of young guns fighting their way into the Cats list is coming from? No less than 10 players that played for the Cats on the w/e against the Bombers were 22 or under. They are cherry picking these guys straight from the best feeder club in Australia - The Geelong reserves.



Boxing

Thursday May 16th - IBO Super featherweight title

5* Will Tomlinson v Malcolm Klassen ($1.20, -500 Sportingbet/Centrebet)

Am I really risking 5 units to win 1? Absolutely. Anyone who follows Australian boxing knows who 'wild' Will is. He is one of the most exciting boxers to watch in the world. The kid has speed, power, solid footwork, great combos, and he is super agressive. He has a great left hook and is quick enough to throw "3 left hook combo's" ala - Roy Jones jr. Oh and he is undefeated with a 20-0 record and 12 KO's. A 60% KO rate is pretty impressive for a bloke that weighs 59kg's. Klassen is a worthy opponent. His last loss was against Mayweather's last opponent Robert Guerrero. Definitely a step up in class for wild Will but it's no big deal, the kid is more than ready. The only point of concern is Tomlinson's penchant for getting cut, however he has been cut many times and never had a fight stopped, so I'm willing to take my chances. Their is no more split division than Super featherweight with 5 different champions through the six major organisations (The Ring title is vacant) and the IBO title that Tomlinson holds is considered the least significant of the 6 but in my opinion this kid is the best Super featherweight in the world and this is his first genuine chance to prove it as he finally gets off a Danny Green undercard and actually highlights with a main event fight.

Sportingbet preview

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DOPX9ClORcU

Highlights

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L8CR3p8Aomg

[davopnz]

Not for me no, I get more worried when totals have significant downward movement, as your Joe Public - casual bettor tends to prefer betting overs in general. It's a lot more exciting to cheer for made baskets than constant misses as a casual NBA fan/recreational bettor.





Mate you should have seen them last year, the Magic were just unstoppable. After an average start to the season they went on a run that lasted 14-15 games unbeaten and they were just destroying opponents, constantly covering ATS with ease. They even did the impossible - going into a hostile Hisense arena against the Red hot Vixens in the GF and holding them to 38 points as they became the first kiwi team to win an ANZ championship. Was a cracking game. Old lady van Dyk was unstoppable, shooting @ 93.6% throughout the finals, against some of the best defenders going around.

what an absolute shame that they've turned into a pile of mud that turn the ball over like every 2nd possession!

[hopper]

MEM-OKC doesn't look good

any idea how to save it ?

[fitguy67]

MEM-OKC doesn't look good

any idea how to save it ?

NBA rule-change under consideration for 2013-2014 season...

"give each team 90 points and start the game with 5 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter..."

[sando]

NBA

1-1 today for -1.03 units

Playoffs - 35-24 +12.79 units

2.5* Warriors @ Spurs -7 (-105 Pinnacle)
Would normally buy half a point here as 7 is a key number, but not this time. I have reasons to believe the Spurs will win comfortably tomorrow.

[sando]

Adding prop bet

1* Manu Ginobli Over 14 points (-113 Sportingbet)

[sando]

So many SBR "experts" on the Knicks ATS tonight, it seems like this whole place is about to get buried. I haven't seen a single pick for the Pacers. This team just continues to get undervalued. I forgot to post a play but I hope some who read my futures post above actually jumped on the Pacers today.

[ender749]

So many SBR "experts" on the Knicks ATS tonight, it seems like this whole place is about to get buried. I haven't seen a single pick for the Pacers. This team just continues to get undervalued. I forgot to post a play but I hope some who read my futures post above actually jumped on the Pacers today.

very nice call Sando. I bet on the Pacers for the series after reading your futures special. let's hope the Spurs nail this now!!

[sando]

NBA

1-1 for +1.38 units.

Spurs with the big statement win as I predicted, but Ginobli with a poor shooting night (3-9 fg's 2-4 ft's) killed the prop bet. Still a nice night, had 2x on the Pacers ATS as well. Nice playoff run continues. Lining up a 2-3 unit NBA play for tomorrow.

[Jago2008]

NBA

1-1 today for -1.03 units

Playoffs - 35-24 +12.79 units

2.5* Warriors @ Spurs -7 (-105 Pinnacle)
Would normally buy half a point here as 7 is a key number, but not this time. I have reasons to believe the Spurs will win comfortably tomorrow.

Nice call on the Spurs, was a sharp line.

[JM92]

So many SBR "experts" on the Knicks ATS tonight, it seems like this whole place is about to get buried. I haven't seen a single pick for the Pacers. This team just continues to get undervalued. I forgot to post a play but I hope some who read my futures post above actually jumped on the Pacers today.

3 units on the Pacers here eheh. Largest bet of the season. I missed out on the first two games (stupid as hell did not bet them in game 1, only game 2 and lost), but I sure hammered them now. The Pacers are so, so much better than the Knicks right now it is crazy. They have dominated basically every quarter of the game except for the ending of the third and the fourth in game 2.

[elPkay]

Hey Sando, how long until you release your bets?
I wanna go to bed soon but don't want to miss your picks if you post them soon.

Thanks for the great effort, I'm with you on every bet.

[sando]

NBA

Memphis @ OKC
2* Over 185 (-105 Pinnacle)
1.5* OKC 1st Half -3 (-105 Pinnacle)
1* OKC -4.5 (-109 Pinnacle)

The Thunder have led both games in Memphis at H/T before getting overrun in the 2nd half. Not going to happen today. Whilst I have no doubt Memphis is taking this series, it won't be today. This is this literally the last stand for Durant and his mates; and Westbrook or not, they are not going down without a fight. OKC to retake control of the tempo on their home court and speed things up a tad. Loving the energy and hustle young Jackson plays with, trying his darnest to fill the gigantic shoes left behing by Westbrook. OKC playing the standard 8 man playoff rotation, and apart from Kendrick Perkins (who is the most useless player in the NBA) the other 7 guys have all stepped up a various stages and today I think there will be a nice even team contribution. KD scoring 35+ is NOT the solution to winning games and Brooks must know this? Sergey-pants needs to have a big game after getting tag teamed and pretty much owned by Gasol and Z-Bo and I think he'll lift at home where he was terrible the first two games but has actually lifted since hitting the road. He usually plays better at home and owes a big game to the adoring home crowd.

*On a side note to OKC fans. This is not a 'shot' just my strong opinion. The Thunder will NEVER win a championship until they pick up an NBA calibre center. Kendrick Perkins is D-League at best and the fact the he is making 8.3M this year (when Steph Curry is making less than 4M for example) has to be a slight on highly touted GM Sam Presti? He doesn't have to be able to score, OKC has plenty of scorers, but he must be able to do something useful. Defend? Rebound? Facilitate an inside/out game from the block? Low post threat who can collapse the D in the paint? Block shots/own the paint? Something. Anything. The center position is just too important to have a 275lb clown how can't jump and/or rebound and who's best move is glaring at anyone and everyone that he interacts with. (Just for the record - Zack Randolph, David Lee and Kevin Love can't jump either yet are excellent rebounders).

[ExodusNZ]

You a professional gambler? Or have another job as well ?

[sando]

You a professional gambler? Or have another job as well ?

Well when I'm winning a lot I like to think I'm a pro haha. What's a pro? Someone who makes a solid/steady income from gambling? Well I definitely have my up's and downs. In this thread when I started I was red hot in both tennis and NBA, that's how it got so big, so quick. Then I went through a phase around Jan/Feb where I just sucked in both Tennis and NBA, and all the trolls set up shop in here, and people started hating on me because they had heard the hype from others and then jumped on board in time for my losing streak (poor bastards), so I took an extended break, but since I have been back I have been doing really well in NBA and pretty decent in most other sports. I definitely don't make (or wager) as much as some, and my consistency is a lot rockier than I would like it to be, but I do win more than I lose and that puts me in the top 6-8% so I like to think of myself as semi-pro.

I do have a job, it's nothing special but it pays well and it's perfect for me. I work as a security guard doing 12 hours shifts where I have a ton of spare time to do all my research on sports (and get paid for it). So for those that wonder how can he possibly follow so many sports, or think I'm just a dart chucker, or whatever, good for you, fade me then, I care not. I'm also obsessed with sports period, probably more so than anyone you have ever met in your life. I don't even know why I go to so much effort in this thread to be honest? I kind of enjoy it, especially now that fukctards like Daimo, King Danillo and Kenny M have left. Doing write ups and then re-reading my own thoughts on screen definitely helps me sharpen my thinking in regards to why exactly I am making a certain play.

[ExodusNZ]

Well when I'm winning a lot I like to think I'm a pro haha. What's a pro? Someone who makes a solid/steady income from gambling? Well I definitely have my up's and downs. In this thread when I started I was red hot in both tennis and NBA, that's how it got so big, so quick. Then I went through a phase around Jan/Feb where I just sucked in both Tennis and NBA, and all the trolls set up shop in here, and people started hating on me because they had heard the hype from others and then jumped on board in time for my losing streak (poor bastards), so I took an extended break, but since I have been back I have been doing really well in NBA and pretty decent in most other sports. I definitely don't make (or wager) as much as some, and my consistency is a lot rockier than I would like it to be, but I do win more than I lose and that puts me in the top 6-8% so I like to think of myself as semi-pro.

I do have a job, it's nothing special but it pays well and it's perfect for me. I work as a security guard doing 12 hours shifts where I have a ton of spare time to do all my research on sports (and get paid for it). So for those that wonder how can he possibly follow so many sports, or think I'm just a dart chucker, or whatever, good for you, fade me then, I care not. I'm also obsessed with sports period, probably more so than anyone you have ever met in your life. I don't even know why I go to so much effort in this thread to be honest? I kind of enjoy it, especially now that fukctards like Daimo, King Danillo and Kenny M have left. Doing write ups and then re-reading my own thoughts on screen definitely helps me sharpen my thinking in regards to why exactly I am making a certain play.

Thanks for the insights!

Really appreciate the plays / write ups (win or lose) - Im usually a quite follower but thought id put my 2 cents in

[davopnz]

well i think we know just how good westbrook is now

[sando]

Well I got that one wrong. Rough day 0-3. I'll be back tomorrow.

[Lakey]

Looking forward to hopefully a change in your AFL luck this weekend.

[ExodusNZ]

BL. See you 2moro!

[brumbies]

Boxing

Thursday May 16th - IBO Super featherweight title

5* Will Tomlinson v Malcolm Klassen ($1.20, -500 Sportingbet/Centrebet)

Am I really risking 5 units to win 1? Absolutely. Anyone who follows Australian boxing knows who 'wild' Will is. He is one of the most exciting boxers to watch in the world. The kid has speed, power, solid footwork, great combos, and he is super agressive. He has a great left hook and is quick enough to throw "3 left hook combo's" ala - Roy Jones jr. Oh and he is undefeated with a 20-0 record and 12 KO's. A 60% KO rate is pretty impressive for a bloke that weighs 59kg's. Klassen is a worthy opponent. His last loss was against Mayweather's last opponent Robert Guerrero. Definitely a step up in class for wild Will but it's no big deal, the kid is more than ready. The only point of concern is Tomlinson's penchant for getting cut, however he has been cut many times and never had a fight stopped, so I'm willing to take my chances. Their is no more split division than Super featherweight with 5 different champions through the six major organisations (The Ring title is vacant) and the IBO title that Tomlinson holds is considered the least significant of the 6 but in my opinion this kid is the best Super featherweight in the world and this is his first genuine chance to prove it as he finally gets off a Danny Green undercard and actually highlights with a main event fight.

Sportingbet preview

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DOPX9ClORcU

Highlights

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L8CR3p8Aomg

whoa is it legal for a professional boxer to comment on his betting odds? that's the first time i have ever seen anything like it. After all, they banned tom waterhouse odds being shown during nrl games not long ago.

Isn't it easy for Tomlinson to bet on his opponent if he wants to? I am just saying.

[JM92]

NBA

Memphis @ OKC
2* Over 185 (-105 Pinnacle)
1.5* OKC 1st Half -3 (-105 Pinnacle)
1* OKC -4.5 (-109 Pinnacle)

The Thunder have led both games in Memphis at H/T before getting overrun in the 2nd half. Not going to happen today. Whilst I have no doubt Memphis is taking this series, it won't be today. This is this literally the last stand for Durant and his mates; and Westbrook or not, they are not going down without a fight. OKC to retake control of the tempo on their home court and speed things up a tad. Loving the energy and hustle young Jackson plays with, trying his darnest to fill the gigantic shoes left behing by Westbrook. OKC playing the standard 8 man playoff rotation, and apart from Kendrick Perkins (who is the most useless player in the NBA) the other 7 guys have all stepped up a various stages and today I think there will be a nice even team contribution. KD scoring 35+ is NOT the solution to winning games and Brooks must know this? Sergey-pants needs to have a big game after getting tag teamed and pretty much owned by Gasol and Z-Bo and I think he'll lift at home where he was terrible the first two games but has actually lifted since hitting the road. He usually plays better at home and owes a big game to the adoring home crowd.

*On a side note to OKC fans. This is not a 'shot' just my strong opinion. The Thunder will NEVER win a championship until they pick up an NBA calibre center. Kendrick Perkins is D-League at best and the fact the he is making 8.3M this year (when Steph Curry is making less than 4M for example) has to be a slight on highly touted GM Sam Presti? He doesn't have to be able to score, OKC has plenty of scorers, but he must be able to do something useful. Defend? Rebound? Facilitate an inside/out game from the block? Low post threat who can collapse the D in the paint? Block shots/own the paint? Something. Anything. The center position is just too important to have a 275lb clown how can't jump and/or rebound and who's best move is glaring at anyone and everyone that he interacts with. (Just for the record - Zack Randolph, David Lee and Kevin Love can't jump either yet are excellent rebounders).

I stopped being a 100% thunder fan when they traded Jeff Green for Perkins. And it wasn't just that traded Jeff Green... it was how and for who. Funniest of things? The Thunder passed on Tyson Chandler in 2010 because he couldn't get past some physical test, or that was the story at least. We all know what happened next. Imagine if we did have Chandler now instead of Perkins... Oh and Collison he's far better than him, it's an absolute shame that he doesn't get more minutes. Heck, Kristic was better than him. At least he could finish and was a pretty good mid-range jump shooter. I love the effort from Perkins but holy cow he sucks sucks sucks.