loving the suns play.
im liking the over in the heat game also, any thoughts there?
im liking the over in the heat game also, any thoughts there?
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sando, hawks at home tomorrow vs wizards only -.5 now. that seems like poundage to me. thoughts?Comment -
It's weird I bet on the Knicks yesterday too thinking I was tailing you :/ Collateral damage from tailing someone I guess :POriginally posted by sandoI wasn't on the Knicks or the magic last night?
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I think I did the same thing sorry man!!! Thanks for the picks as always.Originally posted by dioforceComment -
Good luck buddy. I think we have to give Dallas a pass without Dirk though. Dirk is still the best or at least a top 2-3 PF in this league imo and unstoppable on the offensive end no matter who guards him. I think Dallas cruises into the playoffs easily if Dirk comes back healthy soon. With Dirk, Kaman, Mayo, Marion, Fisher, I would say that's a very strong starting 5 and then add Carter, Collison, Brand off the bench that's got to be one of the top 5 6 teams in the West.Originally posted by sandoCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Originally posted by sando
Due to the multiple response's I got in my Inbox, I decided I would answer the questions here in the thread, rather than replying to a bunch of PM's.
I'm going to go through my methodology for finding plays in the NBA. I am not going to cover totals, as totals are complicated. I would not recommend betting on totals unless you are a seasoned veteran at sports betting and specifically betting the NBA. Anyone who is in that position already does not need any advice from me on how to crunch totals. Remember basketball is very different to other major sports (NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer) as it is a high scoring game with quicker and more frequent momemtum changes. Also rather unlike other major sports the NBA can come down to (and more often than not does) the last 2 minutes despite a large lead late in the game. It is these factors that make the NBA such a unique sport from the sports bettors perspective.
1. I like to scan the card, never spending more than 10-20 seconds per game, just an initial 'once over'. I am looking for something that jumps out at me.
2. Quick look at injury reports (I use ESPN go and/or Rotoworld but Donbest and CBSsports are also adequate), I am mainly looking for updates on key injured players or fresh injuries from the games just played.
Key point - You should always be familiar with injury reports, and should be checking them minimum twice a day. Someone who gets suprised by a key injury that affects their position in a certain game is an amateur bettor. A serious bettor will rarely if ever be caught out unless he has received 'dirty' info.
3. I'll go away usually for a few hours and chew over the games. If it's a big card, I will write the games down on a pice of paper and keep it in my pocket, if it's a small card then I will just keep the games in my head. No matter if I'm at work or play or whatever I am letting the games roll around in my mind, I'm not forcing anything, I am just 'contemplating'. Mainly I think about key match-ups and one teams style vs. another's, ex. Philly v Memphis (Will Holiday struggle to get penetration against Conley's suffocating on ball D)? SA @ Portland (How badly will the Spurs bench dominate Portland's bench? How many points will it mean)? Suns @ Indiana (How much will the Pacer's be able to slow the termpo and how will it affect Gentry's gameplan)? These are just random examples of things to be thought about when initially considering a game. You don't have to jump in at the deep end. You start slow, think about the bigger picture and then work your way into the game before you start crunching the stats and numbers and the finer details of a match-up. I also like to find psychological factors. In fact i love psychological factors, i.e reasons for a team to 'get up' for a particular game, classic example being our recent large play on the Rockets (v. Raptors) when we were assuming (correctly) that they would come out out full of intensity in one of those "let's do it for coach" games.
4. Setting lines. (The crucial step). For me this is the big one. If once I set my lines I find a big enough discrepancy between my own line and the official lines I will often take a pick based almost wholly on that variable. Of course for this to be an effective strategy you must be both extremely proficient and accurate in actually setting the lines in the first place and this is not something you will pick up overnight. The ability to set lines comes mostly from experience. If you have seen every team in the NBA play every other team in the NBA 30+ times in countless different scenarios and you have paid attention to the lines during this time span, then eventually it will come naturally to you. I will go through all the games and set an initial line, usually takes 10-20 seconds per game and this is only a rough estimate, then after that I will go through the games a second time and refine my lines until I am happy with them. Ex. Let's say Philly is at Utah and the official line is Jazz -7. Of course I don't know this, so let's say I set an initial line of Jazz -5.5, then when I come back to it a second time and start seriously contemplating it I decide the line is too short and yet I can't figure out exactly what it should be, so what I do is narrow it down in increments, i.e I will then go too high and contemplate a line of Jazz -8.5, knowing this is too high after briefly considering it but now I have definite parameters to work within (from -5.5 - -8.5) I will simply go up and down through the lines i.e -6 no, -8, no, -6.5, hmmm maybe? Eventually I will settle on a line that I am happy with. Of course this may very well be different to the "official" line, either becuase of my own error, or a bookmakers error, but most likely because book's don't set lines as they should be (per stats, performances, match-up's, etc) they set the lines based on how they percieve the public will react to a certain game and hence how they will therefore react to the line that is offered. I am not interested in a "public line" I am interested in the true line, and how much of a discrepancy I can find from what the line is put out at, to what it actually should be. Obviously for all this to work you have to be proficient at setting lines yourself, and it doesn't come easily, but after years of sports betting (15 and counting) I have developed the skills required to accurately calculate the true line 8 or 9 times out of 10.
5. As I set my lines I will write them down on paper, then I will check the official lines and mark them down next to mine, then I will go to Accuscore and check their lines and mark them down next to the other two. Once I am done, I will re-scan my list and look for discrepancies between the three lines I have. Of course once you find a notable discrepancy you must then be able to figure out how to interpret that into your betting strategy.
*Accuscore is a super computer that plays every game out over 10,000 times and then comes up with ATS, totals, and even individual player predictions. It is based almost wholly on statistics, past performances, stats, mainly mathematical variables that are easily manipulated into an meidan score through a massive sample size of over 10,000 calculations. I find it is a great tool to compare my own predictions to as I am using my own factors to set lines (experience, momentum, psychological factors, match-up's and just plain instincts) whereas Accuscore is based almost wholly on raw data and statistics, so the two bounce off each other nicely.
6. By now I am happy with my lines and I am ready to start writing my plays down. I will always start with far more plays than I am actually going to act on, as to find the best plays we begin a culling process. Once I have a list of plays I will then begin the tedious task of checking other services to see how my plays compare. I start with Espn Insider (pick centre), a great resource, and a must for any serious bettor IMO, however if you visit it for the first time it will most likely seem like a bunch of complicated numbers and statistics that are very hard to comprehend. So anyway I will visit Espn Insider, Sports Insight, Rotoworld, read some general previews on games, re-check injury reports, check my betting prediciton service and check Sportsbook spy, a free service for betting %'s and line movements with only a minimal delay (as compared to other free services). I was using sports insight, but I could not justify the $200 per month, as I already pay enough for a shitload of other services, and I find Sportsbook Spy to be more than adequate for my methods, especially as (unlike some) I don't write a lot into line movements and I don't get over excited over steam movements either, although i will of course pay attention, but they are not major factors in my methods, which truth be told are based on absolute belief in my own abilities to find winners using my own methods, may sound arrogant but I am simply explaining how things work for me. I also use "SportsPunter" to find the best available odds offered as I have muliple sportsbook accounts, although it is rare that any book has better odds available than Pinnacle (which I use for 80% of my NBA betting) or 5Dimes, both of which operate at -105 odds (providing you choose the reduced juice bonus option when you sign up with 5D, which I highly reccomend). All these services I use are simply to help me put thing in perspective. They are not to guide me to my picks. I do my own work, I do my own research and I crunch my own stats (when required) but in order to gage the strength of a certain play (if it is even to become a play) it really really helps to have raw data services and even other people's opinions to put your percieved belief as to the strength of your own picks into perspective. If I am really stuck on a certain play then I will start hunting around SBR and checking other threads in the NBA forum. There are at least 6 guys on the forum on an almost daily basis and one female who are solid as, and must be respected when they put out plays. Sometimes I will even check what the touts are playing, although this can be a misleading and wasteful exercise as just because a guy sells his picks doesn't mean he is any good at handicapping, it simply means he is good at marketing his "brand". So I will only pay attention to people I know and respect (i.e - Jimmy Boyd in NBA). This is not something I do everyday as I really like to keep any outside influences to a minimum, it is more something I will do once my own picks have been locked and loaded or in the case when I am stuck on a play I like but not at the stage where I am ready to "pull the trigger". All these other services I use and opinions I check are not to help me make picks, they are to help me cull the picks I have already made.
Key point - Don't try and talk yourself into a pick. Instead try this - write down all your picks/leans on a piece of paper and then go through them 1 by 1 with the goal of trying to talk yourself out of it. If you can't do so, then you know you have a solid pick (assuming your fundamental methodology is sound to begin with). If upon further analysis you find that your initial pick is really stinky, perhaps you have the wrong side completely and should be giving the other side a look or simply avoiding the game?
7. That's pretty much it. By now I have my list of plays narrowed down and my unit's set for each play (based on the percieved strength of each pick). I will be typing them up on SBR as I go (when I am at home on my desktop PC) as sometimes looking at them on the screen before you click the mouse and save them can be another nice way to think about a play and gives you one last chance to scrap a play, Ex. Yesterday I had Minnesota +6 against Boston typed up and ready to release and at the last second I was staring at it on the screen and chewing it over and I decided it was not a strong play as it was too hard to gage how Boston would respond with Rondo back in the line-up (and Garnett always seems to play well against the T-Wolves), so I scrapped the pick and it was for the better anyway, as Boston easily covered the -6.
Key point - There is no easy way to make money at this game, unless you pay for a "tout's" services or you tail someone who know's what they are doing. Otherwise like most things in life, you have to "put in work". If you've got your fundamentals down pat and you put in the work then the results will take care of themselves. Sports betting isn't free money. It's like a job. You put in the hard work and you get the results.Comment -
Sandi fantastic write up of what you go through. I trust you on your picks because you are pretty good at what you do. You have very few that will challenge you but in the long run they will not do well against your picks. Keep up the good work here and hopefully all of us will be rewarded. Don't let the ones that dog you too much get to you because I think they are jealous that we have someone that does well in this sport.Comment -
that's why you are the kingComment -
Let's roll...Comment -
[QUOTE=sando;17035176]Let's roll...
Cool!!Comment -
I find the Supergrid at Sports Interaction an invaluable tool for crunching road/home splits which i find pretty important when making my selections as there are alot of polarizing home/road teams in the NBAComment -
You put a lot of time into helping others Sando!Comment -
Sando,
Goin back to what you said the other day, 2 of tomorrow's games have totals over 210.
HOU v SA O/U 212
LAL v OKC O/U 211
Are both these automatic "Over" plays?Comment -
TGM, mate if you are going to play this "system" you best make sure you do so for every game that qualify's every day, don't just pick and choose your spots. Best if you do so at a -105 vig book like Pinnacle or 5D, I would recommened flat bet 1x every game that qualifies. From memory the unders were slightly more profitable than the overs, however both were easily hitting at over 52% which is approximately the break even point at a -105 book.Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander
No problem. Sportsbooks are evil, I am almost constantly at war with at least one book at any given time, so I say let's get 'em.Originally posted by MTMComment -
Looks like another loser from sando..
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OK, what is the cut-off for the under, 180?Originally posted by sandoComment -
Dallas +3
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we lose, god everytime i tail a 3 unit play i get burried but his 1 units actually prove to hit more regular.Comment -
What do they give you grief over?Originally posted by sandoComment -
wow.. sando buried you with 3 unit.. unreal!!!Originally posted by easysaid
sando will bankrupt you!!! 
guy is a square.. always on the favorite.. 
another trainwreck from sando..
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Can u just fuk off u dikheadOriginally posted by daimoshokagewow.. sando buried you with 3 unit.. unreal!!! sando will bankrupt you!!! guy is a square.. always on the favorite.. another trainwreck from sando..Comment -
Even if Sando has a bad streak, at least he does something productive for this community of betters looking to make $$. All you do is post stupid comments like the one I quoted. You are either way too profitable to even be here and are just wasting your time, or are making no money and are clearly doing nothing to listen to others who are willing to share knowledge and make more $$ for yourself.Originally posted by daimoshokagewow.. sando buried you with 3 unit.. unreal!!! sando will bankrupt you!!! guy is a square.. always on the favorite.. another trainwreck from sando..Comment -
Your right Yankeefan on this. I know we have idiots like that want to say things like this. This guy is probably fading him which is the wrong thing to do.Comment -
[QUOTE=sando;17035176]Let's roll...
For real???
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Not a great idea of suns to do a satisfaction survey of fans..only 1/2 their team were happy to run with it.Comment -
Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.
0-1 Today in the NBA -2.5Units
NBA YTD 89-61-7 (+35.81 Units) 59.3%
(NBA ATS/ML 67-46-4 YTD) 59.3%
(NBA totals 22-15-3 YTD) 59.5%
All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 14-12-1 (+0.62 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0
*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.
**All m/l picks are almost always dogs. I will hardly ever play a favorite at the m/l and if I do it is no worse than -115.
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Would everyone please stop responding to Daimo-Sausage and put this guy on ignore if he bothers you. Personally I don't care what he says. The guy is a 20 year Korean kid with an oversized head who lives in Michigan and works part-time in his parents nail salon. Apparently he only bets in SBR points as he is a notoriously bad sports bettor who only bets dogs, hits about 25-35% of the time on his SCS plays and thinks this somehow makes him sharp? I am not interested in in engaging him in any form of banter (I have tried in the past) as he deals only in propaganda and lies, cannot be reasoned with. At the end of the day he is just a kid who is very angry and probably has a tough life in the real world. Please don't clutter up this thread with reply's to his idiocy. it just "pours fuel on the fire". Why lower yourself to his level?Comment -
Correct advice.
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Hello, can we get the refund from the Phx game? The promo was that if you are not satisfied for any reason then your money will be refunded.
I am not satisfied cuz Phx ended up losing, I want my refund.
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Ask sando for the refund.. He's the one responsible for losing your hard-earned money.. I pity the the fools who follow this trainwreck..Originally posted by RsenHello, can we get the refund from the Phx game? The promo was that if you are not satisfied for any reason then your money will be refunded.
I am not satisfied cuz Phx ended up losing, I want my refund.Comment -
Big bash starts tonightComment -
Who was that idiot earlier in the week offering to reimburse forumites money if his pick lost..Big Pat or something..where is that little shit??Comment -
Sando thats helarious! haahComment -
NBA
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Timberwolves -8.5 (-109 Pinnacle) 2.5x
Memphis @ NO
Grizzlies -7 (-110 Pinnacle) 2.5x
Charlotte @ Milwaukee
Bobcats +8 (-116 Pinnacle) 2x
*Most lines at -7.5 currently. Buy the hook or PYOL to +8 just to play it safe here
Orlando @ Sacramento
Kings -2.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x
With Evans back and Cousins in form, Kings are a totally different team. I know this will be an unpopular pick and if you don't like it then don't play it. I will provide a write-up for this game explaining my reasoning.
LA Lakers @ OKC
Thunder -7.5 (-112 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Denver @ Indiana
Nuggets +2 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x
NBA Totals
GS @ Brooklyn
Over 194 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Memphis @ NO
Over 182 (-109 Pinnacle) 1x
*Edit - line is 182 not 192
LA Lakers @ OKC
Under 210 (-106 Pinnacle) 1xComment -
I think your Memphis over is a typo. Should be 182.Comment
