Easysaid - Rugby Union Picks

[benandjerry]

Sorry, what does that mean? Canterbury to win by under 15? And Auckland to win by less than 8.5?

I think canterbury and auckland will both whip their respective opponents (HB and Otago) by at least 20 points each if that helps.

HB have their captain (Mike Coman) and best back (Guildford) out of action and i'd have to see the teamsheets to know more.

No its handicap, so you can say they start 15.5 (-15.5) and 8.5 (-8.5) points behind, they need to cover that for the bet to win so they need to win by 16 or 9 (or more) respectively.

[TBsp75]

looks like we are on the same page. prob a better bet on auckland coz it's only -8.5 to cover but yeh need to look at line up first.

ppl, any thoughts on rugby league this weekend? kiwi got a chance?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

counties -7.5 total 50.5

what's the play tonight?

[easysaid]

I like the under for tonight, tasman are a team that have to play low-scoring to get the outright win plus, counties on the other hand tend to go at the same pace throughout the whole game, so if they start well they'll end well and if they are up by 10+ at half time they will continue their dominance in the 2nd half and tasman wont get any points on them so its a matter of them getting the 25 points alone. This might no make a lot of sense to some but either way the under looks very solid here.

Counties/Tasman u50.5 for 4 Units

EDIT -

Also, guys im 64% in NCAAF (have turned most of my attention to that lately) but have decided to post a couple plays that i really like

Purdue - 1
Iowa State +6.5
Kent State -1.5
Buffalo University +12.5
Missouri +21.5

Guys im that confident about these pics if i dont get a minimum of 3/5 ill stop posting plays on SBR.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

thanks pal gl

[Mase of Base]

Really want to unload on Counties ML but just can't pull the trigger. Those loose forward outs are hard to cover especially for these smaller unions and one thing Tasman does have is a reasonable pack especially numbers 4-8 (and one of the top hookers in the comp this season). Like your unders pick these are the two best defenses stats wise in the championship division so looks good, unfortunately don't have that option. Kerr back for Counties is a big inclusion, Tasman run it from everywhere so a good tactical kicker puts them under all sorts of pressure as they won't give it up.

I do feel that Tasman game last week flatters them a bit as the Bay were utterly hopeless but Tasman have only lost by over 7.5 twice (it's down to 5.5 now here) Taranaki by nine with a last minute try against them and Otago when they got blown out in the second half but were up at halftime. Tough call.

[easysaid]

I think -7.5 is a bit steep, i think counties will take this but TAB seem to be posting alot of lines that sqaures would be all over like taranaki -20.5 etc, most ITM cup followers would rate counties alot higher than tasman but with the position counties are in right now, id only expect counties to be slight favourites. The more i look at this i expect a close low scoring game.

[benandjerry]

really gonna have to sweat this one

[nosaij]

easy do you have a college football thread?

[benandjerry]

how did we get out of that one, last 15 mins on the edge...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

good thing i slept through last night's sweat.

any thoughts on tonight's game?

canterbury -15.5 total 57.5?

[davopnz]

ill put it out there again, canterbury are light years better than anybody else now, they have found form and they will win by cover their line every week right until they win the final.

[hawley]

Weather permitting I will probably go with can'terbury team total / total tries again

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i don't have that option at 5 dimes.

why does that line seem a bit low especially with totals set so high?

weather looks decent with variable winds.

[SpartacusNZ]

Hey fellas, i probably wouldn't have advised it anyway, but i chucked $12 on tasman -12 last night paying $4.25 Really the kind of pick only a big fan of the team makes lol Makos going all the way. made me feel a bit better about the small play i put on them taking out the championship, i had kind of made my peace with that already.

Thanks for the explanation on handicaps. So it's very similar to picking a margin of win i guess.

Not sure about anything on tonight's game. I haven't seen the HB team sheet, wondering who they'll be fielding. Canterbury just look so dominant at the moment.

[davopnz]

Hey fellas, i probably wouldn't have advised it anyway, but i chucked $12 on tasman -12 last night paying $4.25 Really the kind of pick only a big fan of the team makes lol Makos going all the way. made me feel a bit better about the small play i put on them taking out the championship, i had kind of made my peace with that already.

Thanks for the explanation on handicaps. So it's very similar to picking a margin of win i guess.

Not sure about anything on tonight's game. I haven't seen the HB team sheet, wondering who they'll be fielding. Canterbury just look so dominant at the moment.

Coman and Guildford their two best players are out, they suck so bad i can't emphasize that enough. The only way they cover if Canterbury take it lightly but they are playing for bonus points so dont see that happening. Line is out to -19.5 on centrebet

[davopnz]

square or not auckland -7.5 looks a great play tomorrow night too

[easysaid]

Bout F'ing time I get the hook last three games ive been burried in the last 5 minutes..

As for tonights game, Id say both the total and point spread is looking pretty sharp.

ALSO -

Plays for the weekend -

Tasman/North Harbour Game Total Under Projected for 4 Units

Wellington -8.5 over Taranaki for 3 Units

Southland -5.5 over Manawatu for 5 Units

[davopnz]

don't pass down the opportunity to make money on the cantabs easy! only a few more games

[easysaid]

Yeah just quitely ive got some cash on them, but not rating it a play simply because i never like going with heavy public favourites, but think they should cover this.

[davopnz]

good to hear thoughts on auckland -7.5 over otago? can't seem them having much trouble, should be a repeat of what wellingtond id to them.

[easysaid]

Umm i was actually leaning towards otago +7.5 as they are at home and will look for a "redeeming match" after being thumped by an inform wellington side.

Adding -

Otago/Auckland o57.5 Points - 3 Units

This game makes a classic over, not only are both teams solid running rugby sides, but they are playing indoors in a stadium that seems to give-birth to overs (last 6 games incl International games) have gone over the post. GL

[davopnz]

will have to go against you on that one, auckland are in form too and have an even better team than welly. to me the gap between the top premiership and championship is huge, even counties can't crack the prem teams(auckland, waikato) just my 2c

[hawley]

What do you see in Southland?

[SpartacusNZ]

Tasman did it twice I thought this comp was prone to upsets early on and has flattened out, but there'll be a few more to come.

Going with canterbury -19, looks pretty good on 5dimes.

There might be interesting lines on Southland Manawatu., will check.

[easysaid]

What do you see in Southland?

for their first game without cowan i was really impressed and remeber despite the sheild loss taranaki were looking like the best team in this comp, and tbh southland matchup was a "revenge game" for them and yet southland were far from a drubbing (maybe because they were at home idk, but they're back at home this week and should seal the deal).

[hawley]

Good call on Canterbury!

[davopnz]

told you easy money on canterbury boys, a class above. good stuff easy

[hawley]

told you easy money on canterbury boys, a class above. good stuff easy

Cheers lad.

Had to jump on after your confidence.

Hit their HT spread and the -19.5

They are a juggernaut right now

[benandjerry]

Thanks guys... wish I had put more on it, one of the most comfortable wins in a long time.

[davopnz]

Cheers lad.

Had to jump on after your confidence.

Hit their HT spread and the -19.5

They are a juggernaut right now

no worries man, feel a bit bad bombarding easys thread but hopefully he doesn't mind, bit late for me to make my own thread but hey we are all making money which is the key

[RLF]

Wellington -8.5??

Will wait on team lists but I like Taranaki to cover that a lot. If you take out their Shield loss they were just about looking the best team in the comp. Got a few injuries so I'm not sure who will play but maybe Barrett will be back? Taranaki's tight 5 is very strong and can use that as a solid platform in these important games.

[easysaid]

bugger, i think the HT play for the canterbury game wouldve been the play of the year.. not only do hawkes bay never put up any points when they are down 15+ in the first half, they rested all their stars for the shield challenge.

Sorry guys, anyone who saw this angle would have made a fortune.

[easysaid]

Wellington -8.5??

Will wait on team lists but I like Taranaki to cover that a lot. If you take out their Shield loss they were just about looking the best team in the comp. Got a few injuries so I'm not sure who will play but maybe Barrett will be back? Taranaki's tight 5 is very strong and can use that as a solid platform in these important games.

Did you see wellington last weekend?? they are finally playing as one..(which usually takes atleast half a season with the lions losing/gaining players every season) not to mention they are unbeaten at home. I was a bit weary at -8.5 (thought line would have been -5) but maybe the Books knows the team lists in advanced. Good luck with whatever you decide on.

EDIT - no worries davopnz this should really be called "rugby union discussion" anything game related is more than welcome.

[davopnz]

if adongo and kerr are playing for counties on saturday 1.75 is absolute gold for them to beat northland.

adongo is their achilles heal, their mvp without a doubt in my mind, they get absolutely smashed at the breakdown without him(view manawatu game 1st half and then 2nd half when they brought him on) and against tasman the other night.