Went 2/3 yesterday.
Round 3 games:
Carlsen – van Wely
Carlsen handily drew his game today (with black) against Svidler. Van Wely, on the other hand, lost in the first round and drew with white yesterday. Van Wely will not be trying to win this game. He will be happy to take a draw w/ black against the top seed, and will be aiming to do so. My bet on Carlsen does not mean that I think his winning is the most likely result. It is based more on the fact that Carlsen is highly unlikely to lose. Of their 8 games with Carlsen as white, Carlsen has won 5/8 and drawn 3/8. Some of these games were from 2 years ago, even, when Carlsen was not as good as he is now.
I am taking Carlsen to win at -340. Bargain price.
Eljanov – Shirov
Eljanov has drawn both his games while Shirov has won both of his. Shirov is a wild attacking player, and I’d take him to beat anyone in this tournament with the white pieces. But, he's black this game. I am leaning towards a draw because Eljanov has been solid so far and won’t give Shirov much room to go wild. A quick check at chesslive.de shows all of their 3 games have been draws. Then again, Shirov is hot this tournament, so you never know.
Taking Draw at -135 (another bargain price).
Alekseev – Svidler
Svidler is never very ambitious with the black pieces. He’s drawn both his first two games. Alekseev will be playing cautiously as he is 0.5/2 so far in the tournament. Chesslive.de shows both games played were drawn, though theyre from 2005 and 2006. They played just 2 months ago with Alekseev winning as black! So I think Alekseev will be happy w/ a draw against a top seed, given that he's not playing so well. And Svidler should be happy with a draw as black against someone he's never beaten.
Taking Draw at -150.
Nisipeanu – Ivanchuk
Nisipeanu is 0.5/2 so far, while Ivanchuk has won 1 and lost 1. Ivanchuk won his last game handily against Alekseev. Ivanchuk is very unpredictable. Nisipeanu has actually beaten Ivanchuk a bunch of times with white, with a handful of draws. I am staying away from Ivanchuk. He could get raped, play a quiet game for a draw, or come out fighting.
No play.
Onischuk – Karjakin
Onischuk just lost while Karjakin just won. Onischuk plays a solid style of chess. I doubt he will press hard for a win against Karjakin (who always seems to consolidate a win with a draw in his next game). Nevertheless, Karjakin surprised me with his play earlier today. And their one previous game, Karjakin won as black. They're both -105 to win. Don't have a feeling for who would win a decisive game here, but at only -138, I'm betting the draw.
Draw at -138.
Jakovenko – Volokitin
Volokitin just won his last game against Onischuk, while Jakovenko got absolutely crushed by Shirov. Can you believe that Jakovenko is -250 to win?? There is even more reason to think this line is way off. Their last game (only 2 months ago) Volokitin won as black, in a Petroff (for those who know chess openings)! I think Volokitin should be -150 here. Very few of the games between these two are drawn. Stay away.
I am on Volokitin at +230.
Recap:
Carlsen to win -340
Eljanov/Shirov Draw -135
Alekseev/Svidler Draw -150
Onischuk/Karjakin Draw -138
Volokitin to win +230
Comments?
Round 3 games:
Carlsen – van Wely
Carlsen handily drew his game today (with black) against Svidler. Van Wely, on the other hand, lost in the first round and drew with white yesterday. Van Wely will not be trying to win this game. He will be happy to take a draw w/ black against the top seed, and will be aiming to do so. My bet on Carlsen does not mean that I think his winning is the most likely result. It is based more on the fact that Carlsen is highly unlikely to lose. Of their 8 games with Carlsen as white, Carlsen has won 5/8 and drawn 3/8. Some of these games were from 2 years ago, even, when Carlsen was not as good as he is now.
I am taking Carlsen to win at -340. Bargain price.
Eljanov – Shirov
Eljanov has drawn both his games while Shirov has won both of his. Shirov is a wild attacking player, and I’d take him to beat anyone in this tournament with the white pieces. But, he's black this game. I am leaning towards a draw because Eljanov has been solid so far and won’t give Shirov much room to go wild. A quick check at chesslive.de shows all of their 3 games have been draws. Then again, Shirov is hot this tournament, so you never know.
Taking Draw at -135 (another bargain price).
Alekseev – Svidler
Svidler is never very ambitious with the black pieces. He’s drawn both his first two games. Alekseev will be playing cautiously as he is 0.5/2 so far in the tournament. Chesslive.de shows both games played were drawn, though theyre from 2005 and 2006. They played just 2 months ago with Alekseev winning as black! So I think Alekseev will be happy w/ a draw against a top seed, given that he's not playing so well. And Svidler should be happy with a draw as black against someone he's never beaten.
Taking Draw at -150.
Nisipeanu – Ivanchuk
Nisipeanu is 0.5/2 so far, while Ivanchuk has won 1 and lost 1. Ivanchuk won his last game handily against Alekseev. Ivanchuk is very unpredictable. Nisipeanu has actually beaten Ivanchuk a bunch of times with white, with a handful of draws. I am staying away from Ivanchuk. He could get raped, play a quiet game for a draw, or come out fighting.
No play.
Onischuk – Karjakin
Onischuk just lost while Karjakin just won. Onischuk plays a solid style of chess. I doubt he will press hard for a win against Karjakin (who always seems to consolidate a win with a draw in his next game). Nevertheless, Karjakin surprised me with his play earlier today. And their one previous game, Karjakin won as black. They're both -105 to win. Don't have a feeling for who would win a decisive game here, but at only -138, I'm betting the draw.
Draw at -138.
Jakovenko – Volokitin
Volokitin just won his last game against Onischuk, while Jakovenko got absolutely crushed by Shirov. Can you believe that Jakovenko is -250 to win?? There is even more reason to think this line is way off. Their last game (only 2 months ago) Volokitin won as black, in a Petroff (for those who know chess openings)! I think Volokitin should be -150 here. Very few of the games between these two are drawn. Stay away.
I am on Volokitin at +230.
Recap:
Carlsen to win -340
Eljanov/Shirov Draw -135
Alekseev/Svidler Draw -150
Onischuk/Karjakin Draw -138
Volokitin to win +230
Comments?