This weekends premiership matches

[mad]

Okey Dokey fellas, what's the go for the weekend? Anything stand out at this stage?

[tacomax]

Only one match in the Premiership this weekend (Tottenham versus Wigan) since it's FA Cup week. Wigan are slowly slipping out of contention for a European place and have lost 9 out of their last 15 games. For a team that were 2nd in the league after about 10 games, they're showing relegation form at the moment. Spurs are -105 at Pinny on the A/H -0.5 and -1. I'd lean on that since Tottenham haven't been as dire recently as Wigan. But this is the same Tottenham which couldn't beat Sunderland last weekend so this is by no means a lock.

With the FA Cup, let's see. Biggest match by a mile is Liverpool vs Man Utd and the odds are -108/-102 on PK which is just about right - it really is a coin toss there. I'd edge Man Utd even though they're playing away from home - after crashing out of the Champions League, Man Utd will want to make sure that they have a chance to win at least something reputable this season. Liverpool also will surely have an eye on their Champions league first leg match next week. Then again, these are probably the two fiercest rivals in English football - neither of them will want to lose.

Looking at value picks, West Ham look nice on the A/H odds of +103 for PK and +0.5 away at Bolton. West Ham are on fire at the moment, winning 5 on the trot in the league and 7 on the trot in all competitions. Bolton have drawn 5 of their last 6 league games (admittedly two of those were against Arsenal and Liverpool) but West Ham's recent form and +0.5 goal advantage on half your stake looks tempting.

[mad]

Thanks taco, Spurs might be another ideal case for a parlay or perhaps even a reasonable go at them SU with a saver on the draw. With this A/H, which i must admit i don't fully understand, could you and/or would you parlay SU and -0.5?

I must admit based on last weeks performance i don't fully trust this Tottenham team. However i did watch the game and it was complacency that ultimately cost them so i guess i could go a parlay here. Hmmm, decisions, decisions.

[tacomax]

If you do one thing today, learn about A/Hs. If you bet the 1x2 at soccer then your Pinnacle charge about 7% juice. If you bet Pinnacles 4 cent A/H lines ($200 limits for the major European leagues) then you're looking at 1% juice. Even on a 10 cent line (all other soccer matches and higher limit bets) you're still looking at 2.4% juice - way lower than the 1x2 prices.

This is Pinnacle's explanation of A/H wagering:

Handicap Betting: Soccer games may have either a Single Handicap or a Double Handicap.

Single Handicap: This bet type is similar to a bet on the spread in basketball.

For example:

Arsenal
Newcastle

-1, -125
+1, +113

If Arsenal wins the match by two goals or more, Arsenal bettors win and Newcastle bettors lose. If the match is drawn or if Newcastle wins, Newcastle bettors win and Arsenal bettors lose. If Arsenal wins by exactly one goal, all bettors receive a refund.

Double Handicap: This bet type splits a wager into two bets, each with the same moneyline, but at a different single handicap.

For example:

Real Madrid
Barcelona

-1 and -1.5, -108
+1 and +1.5, +100

A client who bets $100 on Real Madrid actually has two separate bets on Real Madrid: $50 on Real Madrid -1 at -108 and $50 on Real Madrid -1.5 at -108.

A client who bets $50 on Barcelona actually has two separate bets on Barcelona: $25 on Barcelona +1 at +100 and $25 on Barcelona +1.5 at +100.

So, let's look at the Tottenham odds of -105 for -0.5 and -1. If you bet $200 on that line then you have $100 on Tottenham -1 and $100 on Tottenham -0.5 so in that case the draw isn't covered.

If the line was -0.5 and PK then you'd win both bets with a Tottenham win and a draw would mean that you receive a refund of half your stake since the PK half of the bet pushed.

[mad]

Thanks, yep no big problems there. I was under some strange misconception whereby i was confusing the rules of one with the other and i was splitting points rather than the amount wagered. Stuffed if i know why???? Single handicap is no worries, simple enough. The double i was confusing the rules. But it not so hard to understand. All the same i'm not sold on the idea of the double handicap but i'm just not used to it. Anyways thanks for the posting the rules.

As for the parlay obviously i'd be looking at the single handicap with the SU, but would want to be fairly certain they'll "do the business" as you say. Otherwise the SU/Draw play is the go. I certainly don't feel as confident with Tottenham v Wigan as i did with West Ham v Birmingham.

[tacomax]

And this is a good site for team news of all the English clubs:

http://www.teamtalk.com

They report that Tottenham's top scorer Mido has returned fit from the African Nations Cup and is available for the match this weekend.

[mad]

This was where the confusion came in. I remember reading this and thinking "**** off". I'm too lazy or too stupid, not sure myself sometimes. All i know is after a while of reading this kind of poo that was it for me.

"...Sometimes, your SportsBook might create what, in effect, is two bets out of the one Asian Handicap Line. They do this by offering ¼, ¾, 1¼ (etc) lines. To work out what the two different bets actually are, you simply subtract ¼ from the line to get the first handicap, and add ¼ to the line to get the second handicap. For example, if Arsenal were given a 0.25 start against Man Utd, then that is effectively one bet on a 0 handicap (0.25 - ¼), and one bet on a 0.5 handicap (0.25 + ¼)

For ¼ handicaps, half of your stake is applied to each bet in order to work out your winnings. So if one bet wins, you receive half your stake multiplied by the odds. If both bets win, you receive your full stake multiplied by the odds. If either of the bets is a push, you receive half your stake back for that bet.

Below is a table that shows the various formats of displaying the Asian Handicap Lines, and what they mean. Keep in mind that any Asian Handicap with a ¼ or ¾ line in it, means there are effectively two bets. You must subtract ¼ to get the first bet, and add ¼ to get the second bet..."

PS Thanks for the link. What else ya got?

[tacomax]

This was where the confusion came in. I remember reading this and thinking "**** off". I'm too lazy or too stupid, not sure myself sometimes. All i know is after a while of reading this kind of poo that was it for me.

"...Sometimes, your SportsBook might create what, in effect, is two bets out of the one Asian Handicap Line. They do this by offering ¼, ¾, 1¼ (etc) lines. To work out what the two different bets actually are, you simply subtract ¼ from the line to get the first handicap, and add ¼ to the line to get the second handicap. For example, if Arsenal were given a 0.25 start against Man Utd, then that is effectively one bet on a 0 handicap (0.25 - ¼), and one bet on a 0.5 handicap (0.25 + ¼)

For ¼ handicaps, half of your stake is applied to each bet in order to work out your winnings. So if one bet wins, you receive half your stake multiplied by the odds. If both bets win, you receive your full stake multiplied by the odds. If either of the bets is a push, you receive half your stake back for that bet.

Below is a table that shows the various formats of displaying the Asian Handicap Lines, and what they mean. Keep in mind that any Asian Handicap with a ¼ or ¾ line in it, means there are effectively two bets. You must subtract ¼ to get the first bet, and add ¼ to get the second bet..."

Jeez - that's enough to put you off betting for life. Which site offered those words of wisdom?

PS Thanks for the link. What else ya got?

Some good stats and amusing write-ups at this site:

http://www.football365.com/

[mad]

Sportspunter.com.au had that little gem.
You know after your explanation it seems quite simple, but i can assure you that when reading this article on its own, i soon decided i couldn't care less.

Anyways, any thoughts on Bolton v West Ham. I see West Ham +270 out there which i was thinking might not be a bad bet considering recent form. If ever their was a time for West Ham to win... Perhaps a coupla' quid on a draw as well.

[fixxer]

This is a "no bet" weekend for me.....FA Cup is a tricky one, it's never easy to bet on it....GL on your bets, West Ham looks a good bet, tho it's 0-0 in the 35th min....

[mad]

Thanks fixxer. You got your eye on any little gems at the moment, or you having a quiet one?

[fixxer]

I just watch games for now...The only bet I made for today is a "Supertoto" slip, which looks promising....I only need a Barca win and a Sevilla 12 for a small win.
I am thinking abt
Fiorentina-Lazio (H-143),
Tottenham-Wigan (H-143),
Real Sociedad-Valencia (A+110 - maybe a DNB)
for tomorrow, but neither of them looks really strong, so I will only play for small stakes....

[adriano]

not strong bets but i like these plays for small coin:

Draw no bet:
Hamburg -120
Middlesbrough -117

SU:
Marseille +110

[mad]

Howdy fellas,
Might steal a play off each of ya'.

Tottenham win
Middlesbrough win
Chelsea over 2.5

Any thoughts on Villa/City?

[imgv94]

1* Tottenham --0.5 and -1 -113

[tacomax]

Damn, every time there's a soccer thread there's always a play on Tottenham.

[adriano]

i wouldn't place my money on Tottenham on most occasions, they may be playing their best football in 15 years, but still can't trust'em...

[mad]

Tell me about it, i've been the clown starting most of 'em. You should ban me, for my own sake if nothing else. Middlesbrough did the right thing thankfully (thanks adriano), just need someone to score at Stamford Bridge and everything will be fine again...

[mad]

Real is looking mighty fine from here, thoughts gentlemen.

[imgv94]

fvck totten