Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx STR. Will do some research on the Ring and D bits. If I have any follow up Questions will hit you up.

[str]

hey str.. another one of my crazy hypotheticals.. extremely wealthy guy offers you a big amount of money to give him horses for one year on the NY circuit.. he's going to play a $1 million bankroll and understands there's no guarantee.. just wants you to try your best and what happens happens.. if you turn a nice profit you get 10% of his profit on top of what he's paying you..if you could devote a lot of your time for 1 year into doing this(assuming average luck) applying your horsemen skills to handicapping do you feel you have an edge over time.. would you enjoy that kind of challenge?


don't be humble.. I want a genuine answer lol..

Q. .if you could devote a lot of your time for 1 year into doing this(assuming average luck) applying your horsemen skills to handicapping do you feel you have an edge over time.

A. Yes. I would eventually gain a solid edge but it would take 60-90 days IMO. Maybe a little longer. And, if I had followed each meet prior to starting, I would be much better off.
In a perfect world, follow for a year reading charts and watching replays and then start for a year. No 60-90 days needed then. I would be ahead of the game from day one.
I only say that because I never followed NY. If the betting was in Maryland, I would be ready inside 30 days.

Q. would you enjoy that kind of challenge?

A. Absolutely.

[str]

Q. .if you could devote a lot of your time for 1 year into doing this(assuming average luck) applying your horsemen skills to handicapping do you feel you have an edge over time.

A. Yes. I would eventually gain a solid edge but it would take 60-90 days IMO. Maybe a little longer. And, if I had followed each meet prior to starting, I would be much better off.
In a perfect world, follow for a year reading charts and watching replays and then start for a year. No 60-90 days needed then. I would be ahead of the game from day one.
I only say that because I never followed NY. If the betting was in Maryland, I would be ready inside 30 days.

Q. would you enjoy that kind of challenge?

A. Absolutely.

JBEX or anyone for that matter. So let me ask a question now. When I respond the way I did, do people think I say what I said because I will know the clockers, trainers, exercise riders, vets, etc. and be able to ask them about certain horses?
Just wondering .

[Easy-Rider 66]

JBEX or anyone for that matter. So let me ask a question now. When I respond the way I did, do people think I say what I said because I will know the clockers, trainers, exercise riders, vets, etc. and be able to ask them about certain horses?
Just wondering .

No that did not come first to my thoughts. With your knowledge and experience I would think the pp's, charts, and replays would give you the necessary tools to make reasonable judgements about the tote board. But inside info could/would be a major factor as well.

[str]

No that did not come first to my thoughts. With your knowledge and experience I would think the pp's, charts, and replays would give you the necessary tools to make reasonable judgements about the tote board. But inside info could/would be a major factor as well.

The inside info would be nill, nada, no way. Quickest way to the poor house is to rely on that. Getting information from someone that if it was 99% of those I mentioned, has limited at best, skills in gambling, is a terrible idea. It is one of the biggest misconceptions in horse racing .

PP's charts, replays, warming up, galloping out after the race and the paddock if I was on site would be it for me.

Glad it did not come to mind first.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The inside info would be nill, nada, no way. Quickest way to the poor house is to rely on that. Getting information from someone that if it was 99% of those I mentioned, has limited at best, skills in gambling, is a terrible idea. It is one of the biggest misconceptions in horse racing .

PP's charts, replays, warming up, galloping out after the race and the paddock if I was on site would be it for me.

Glad it did not come to mind first.

Thx for the info.

[JBEX]

JBEX or anyone for that matter. So let me ask a question now. When I respond the way I did, do people think I say what I said because I will know the clockers, trainers, exercise riders, vets, etc. and be able to ask them about certain horses?
Just wondering .

No I wasn't going there..Just the skills you have as a trainer and the subtleties that you know about that most others wouldn't..stuff you said in your first response what I meant..sure you'd do well over the long haul..wish I could back you lol

[JBEX]

you'd probably have to play ny with a 1 million bankroll.. at maryland tracks you'd affect the pools too much I believe

[JBEX]

you'd probably have to play ny with a 1 million bankroll.. at maryland tracks you'd affect the pools too much I believe

probably need a book. .even a weekday at belmont in may or june you'd affect the odds too much..think 500k would be more realistic bankroll

[str]

probably need a book. .even a weekday at belmont in may or june you'd affect the odds too much..think 500k would be more realistic bankroll

I agree.

In Maryland betting more than a 50.00 exacta can be counter productive if you are not careful.

Reading how much to bet before you are betting against yourself by costing yourself better prices is important when wagering at tracks with smaller handles.

[JBEX]

I agree.

In Maryland betting more than a 50.00 exacta can be counter productive if you are not careful.

Reading how much to bet before you are betting against yourself by costing yourself better prices is important when wagering at tracks with smaller handles.

speaking of handles, they are having the final card of the hong kong meet tomorrow I believe.. they average $160M US dollars per card there.. the last 3 final meeting cards did an average of $230M.. their web site is amazing hkjc.com... you can see workouts, gallop outs, very detailed trip info, multiple angle replays, equipment used and free advanced pp's.. worth checking out just to see how they do things

[Easy-Rider 66]

When it comes to a pure speed horse, blks. off will take the edge off the speed horse and allow it to settle a bit more.

Palice Malice in the Derby with blks. on vs. Palice Malice in the Belmont with blks. off. Two totally different horses in those two races.

With middle of the pack runners or closers, it really is a crap shoot. Seems to me that a trainer is trying to do anything to get the horse interested and is just hoping for the best.

Is there a particular horses running style you are thinking about or just in general?

STR:

Follow up question on blinkers and running style. I have noticed somewhat lately that blinks going on a speed or presser horse create a situation where they rush into the lead or contention and then fade. Just like you described with Palice Malice. Conversely, I have seen some horses with a sustained or closing style improve greatly with the shades. 2 recent spins come to mind. Today at Delaware race 8 a horse (#2)with EP3 style and shades on set splits of 21 and 44 and 1. Announcer said fastest splits of the meet. He then faded to 3rd. At Belmont on Sunday Race 1 a 35/1 shot who had did nothing previous 4 races (#7) came from last and rallied up the rail to score. Blinks were on 1st time.


My question is in your day how often would guess you used blinks? And Irrespective of that was there a certain running style that you preferred to use them with. Thx.

[str]

STR:

Follow up question on blinkers and running style. I have noticed somewhat lately that blinks going on a speed or presser horse create a situation where they rush into the lead or contention and then fade. Just like you described with Palice Malice. Conversely, I have seen some horses with a sustained or closing style improve greatly with the shades. 2 recent spins come to mind. Today at Delaware race 8 a horse (#2)with EP3 style and shades on set splits of 21 and 44 and 1. Announcer said fastest splits of the meet. He then faded to 3rd. At Belmont on Sunday Race 1 a 35/1 shot who had did nothing previous 4 races (#7) came from last and rallied up the rail to score. Blinks were on 1st time.


My question is in your day how often would guess you used blinks? And Irrespective of that was there a certain running style that you preferred to use them with. Thx.

Probably 75% of the horses excluding first time starters and horses that have only run 2 or 3 times. That was not by choice, many were horses I claimed and the equipment follows the horse until such a time that the trainer thinks a change of some sort is likely beneficial.

The individual horse always told me and or the jockey with their actions within the race. Yes, speed horses can get really aggressive and "run off" or not relax with blinkers if you are not careful. Closers can really benefit from adding blks. It gets them somewhat aggressive as well but because of their natural come from behind style, and mindset, not as much early on. So they do not run off but they are on their toes just waiting for the chance to move forward. And typically they want to lay maybe 2 or 3 lengths closer early. They are also more apt to run inside or split horses whereas before , maybe they were less willing to do so.

Blinkers on has been a must play for me when it comes to exotics, especially closers. Mainly because their form is not a bunch of 1's early and therefore handicappers that skim typically throw those types out, creating a bigger price, and there is little question the horse will be more attentive than previously. At 20 or 30-1, that's all I can ask for.
Even if they lose, running 2nd or even 3rd can blow up the prices in exactas , tri's and supers.

I cannot stress playing those types enough. You don't have to cash many to be way ahead doing that. Please keep an eye on this at Saratoga. Anyone that is going blinkers on there is not screwing around. In some cases they have waited for the right time to put them on and that is not two or three weeks before Saratoga, it is AT Saratoga. Checking the trainer history of 1st time blks. is also a valuable tool. They did not have that in my day, and I am glad they did not. I knew who did well doing that in Md. and playing those trainers in those spots was very profitable. I had great training success doing that. I guess thats why I preach it so much.

I would say that closers going long and sprinters stretching out ( especially with a rider that can relax a horse)are the two best types of blks. on but it is rare that I would not use ANY blks. on at least somewhere on a ticket if I was betting.

Hope that helps. Keep me posted.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: Appreciate the analysis. Yeah your post confirmed my thoughts that Blinks on a closer may make them more aggressive which helps the horse stay closer to the pace. And I have noticed quite a few speed or presser types just fade at least first time with the shades on. Will keep an eye out at the Spa.

[str]

STR: Appreciate the analysis. Yeah your post confirmed my thoughts that Blinks on a closer may make them more aggressive which helps the horse stay closer to the pace. And I have noticed quite a few speed or presser types just fade at least first time with the shades on. Will keep an eye out at the Spa.

Especially for those closer types with first time blks.

Turf or dirt. It makes no difference.

[cutchemist42]

Hey str, going back and re-reading the thread. I really do like and appreciate following one track and getting to know it. I just wondering though as someone who still likes to follow the bigger picture how this aspect works for following the stakes horses travelling to different tracks every few weeks.

Have you written about following stakes shippers? Or even allowance shippers?

[str]

Hey str, going back and re-reading the thread. I really do like and appreciate following one track and getting to know it. I just wondering though as someone who still likes to follow the bigger picture how this aspect works for following the stakes horses travelling to different tracks every few weeks.

Have you written about following stakes shippers? Or even allowance shippers?

I not sure if I have.
So here is my approach.

What I have done is to go to the DRF website and read the headlines everyday. They will track most of the big names right there. Then, as you look to focus on a particular race, you can read some more into that race. Basically, just dig around for info. The one thing I try and avoid is picks. I want to keep an open mind going in.
Also, if a race is a big name race I might read the charts at the track a few days prior to get the feel of how the track has been playing. That way, come race day, if I see something different, it is easier to begin to spot. Like all speed or all closers, or rail, or outside posts leaving the chute.
Keep in mind almost every track grades the surface on big race day ( if time allows), or the night before. And if rain is forecast for race day or the day before as well as race day, they can (over grade due to the time before the actual race or unintentionally) causing a severe bias in those cases. Watching the forecast for Louisville or Baltimore for instance during the triple crown races along with replays leading up to and as the weather comes in, has been a solid source of knowledge if you are looking for it. And it is not all that time consuming. Spend one hour watching the 2 cards before the weather hit and then a Friday card on Friday night or Saturday morning is time well spent.
It brings you as up to speed as you can be and totally prepared for the big day.
If you cannot find the replays on DRF you can usually go to the tracks website and find the replays from the previous days.

I guess this shows that I am always looking for an edge in what I might know over others I am betting against. This is true. It is parimutuel so you are playing against everybody else. Putting in an hour to know something that is really valuable is a small price to pay and well worth it IMO.
Give it a try. And if you are rereading the thread, I am sure I have spoken about certain parts of this stuff several times.

There are certain things I cannot stress enough. Just like Blinkers on with distance closers at a big price, this is also one I hope many of you will give a shot.
I mean, how much would it be worth to you to know there is a certain bias that exists BEFORE the first race or two or three?

Doesn't always happen, but when it does, it is real nice to be aware of.

Nothing is easy with horse racing, but putting time to good use gaining knowledge about the track that you might not normally follow is time well spent I promise you.

Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

hey str

sar R5 tomorrow

2yof msw @ 5.5 dirt
horse I like is by a 75k stud win early sire out of an unraced dam whose produced 4 winners/6 starters and 1stakes winner..3 of the 6 were 2yo winners..dam sire is not for love who was one of the best maryland stallions
of all time I believe ..he was probably a little too late for you to have seen any of his progeny..sagamore farm bred
and owned and she's a maryland bred..not for love a sprint sire..avg winning distance 6.5f

went off 6-5 in muddy track debut at pimlico and ran an even race..gets blinkers today

trainer I guess is a maryland guy..workouts all at laurel..
has some unreal stats..

16/55 ..overall 2017
2/5 ..first blinkers
4/12 ..2nd career starts
6/24 .. 46-90 days off
2/3 ..with jock aboard L60 days and huge roi
solid steady works

sorry if I went overboard with info..the maryland connection and the first blinkers thought would be interesting to you..just figured i'd put it out there and if you have any comments love to hear them

[JBEX]

hey str

sar R5 tomorrow

#5 southampton way (12-1)

2yof msw @ 5.5 dirt

horse I like is by a 75k stud win early sire out of an unraced dam whose produced 4 winners/6 starters and 1stakes winner..3 of the 6 were 2yo winners..dam sire is not for love who was one of the best maryland stallions
of all time I believe ..he was probably a little too late for you to have seen any of his progeny..sagamore farm bred
and owned and she's a maryland bred..not for love was a sprint sire ..avg win distance 6.5f

went off 6-5 in muddy track debut at pimlico and ran an even race..gets blinkers today

trainer I guess is a maryland guy..workouts all at laurel..
has some unreal stats..

16/55 ..overall 2017
2/5 ..first blinkers
4/12 ..2nd career starts
6/24 .. 46-90 days off
2/3 ..with jock aboard L60 days and huge roi
solid steady works

sorry if I went overboard with info..the maryland connection and the first blinkers thought would be interesting to you..just figured i'd put it out there and if you have any comments love to hear them

[JBEX]

^^ apologize for the duplicate post. .my clunky old phone

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR: Del Mar Race 5 yesterday. The #8 Spanish Hombre. 15 ML and sent off at 37/1. Of the 10 running lines in PP's he ran with the shades on every one except his last race. Ran ok without them, but trainer put them back on yesterday. Had sustained 5 speed according to Brisnet. Stays up close to the pace the whole race, fights to the end, and finished second. Exacta pays $302.

Is this a situation you would also look for? Where the blinks come off for a race and then back on. Thx.

[str]

hey str

sar R5 tomorrow

#5 southampton way (12-1)

2yof msw @ 5.5 dirt

horse I like is by a 75k stud win early sire out of an unraced dam whose produced 4 winners/6 starters and 1stakes winner..3 of the 6 were 2yo winners..dam sire is not for love who was one of the best maryland stallions
of all time I believe ..he was probably a little too late for you to have seen any of his progeny..sagamore farm bred
and owned and she's a maryland bred..not for love was a sprint sire ..avg win distance 6.5f

went off 6-5 in muddy track debut at pimlico and ran an even race..gets blinkers today

trainer I guess is a maryland guy..workouts all at laurel..
has some unreal stats..

16/55 ..overall 2017
2/5 ..first blinkers
4/12 ..2nd career starts
6/24 .. 46-90 days off
2/3 ..with jock aboard L60 days and huge roi
solid steady works

sorry if I went overboard with info..the maryland connection and the first blinkers thought would be interesting to you..just figured i'd put it out there and if you have any comments love to hear them

Appreciate the info. Md. is in my wheel house .
All my babies were broken at Sagamore. I know the place well.

Apparently this trainer is very well thought of with young horses. Everything points to the horse giving a solid effort. Question is, is a solid effort good enough vs. these? I don't know that answer. I don't have a form or anything. Have to think the race has some future talent in it but I discuss this blind.

The CEO of under armour bought the farm and his goal is to win the Derby. He has poured a ton of money into the game. That doesnt make this horse win but what it does say is if this owner , on opening day at the Spa, had a horse like this in, he would win more than 1 out of 12 times. Soo.... 12-1 is a no brainer for me.
I would play the horse to win and play it 2nd under a horse or two if I felt they were maybe better. So 2 or three tickets. Win and 2nd in the exacta under one or two I was afraid of.
This guy is dying to win on opening day at the Spa. I would not sell this horse short or anything he runs during the meet. They might not be talented enough but they are not there to practice.

Good luck.

[str]

STR: Del Mar Race 5 yesterday. The #8 Spanish Hombre. 15 ML and sent off at 37/1. Of the 10 running lines in PP's he ran with the shades on every one except his last race. Ran ok without them, but trainer put them back on yesterday. Had sustained 5 speed according to Brisnet. Stays up close to the pace the whole race, fights to the end, and finished second. Exacta pays $302.

Is this a situation you would also look for? Where the blinks come off for a race and then back on. Thx.

That is rare but it happens. ANY situation of blks. on is fine.

I have seen where the form makes a mistake and it shows the horse ran without once when actually it did have them on. You will need to see that it says blks. ON in the form or program meaning it had to be specified at time of entry. If it does not, you need to watch a replay to verify. I have seen that mistake enough to know that it happens more than it should.
Hope you had that if you played the race.

[JBEX]

Appreciate the info. Md. is in my wheel house .
All my babies were broken at Sagamore. I know the place well.

Apparently this trainer is very well thought of with young horses. Everything points to the horse giving a solid effort. Question is, is a solid effort good enough vs. these? I don't know that answer. I don't have a form or anything. Have to think the race has some future talent in it but I discuss this blind.

The CEO of under armour bought the farm and his goal is to win the Derby. He has poured a ton of money into the game. That doesnt make this horse win but what it does say is if this owner , on opening day at the Spa, had a horse like this in, he would win more than 1 out of 12 times. Soo.... 12-1 is a no brainer for me.
I would play the horse to win and play it 2nd under a horse or two if I felt they were maybe better. So 2 or three tickets. Win and 2nd in the exacta under one or two I was afraid of.
This guy is dying to win on opening day at the Spa. I would not sell this horse short or anything he runs during the meet. They might not be talented enough but they are not there to practice.

Good luck.

that's the kind of extra info that's valuable..trainer will be an under the radar guy even with his impressive stats in md..if this is any indicator of the type of horses they'll ship
up probably best to get in early for some value..thanks str

[str]

that's the kind of extra info that's valuable..trainer will be an under the radar guy even with his impressive stats in md..if this is any indicator of the type of horses they'll ship
up probably best to get in early for some value..thanks str

This trainer knows what he is doing. Very solid.

[Easy-Rider 66]

That is rare but it happens. ANY situation of blks. on is fine.

I have seen where the form makes a mistake and it shows the horse ran without once when actually it did have them on. You will need to see that it says blks. ON in the form or program meaning it had to be specified at time of entry. If it does not, you need to watch a replay to verify. I have seen that mistake enough to know that it happens more than it should.
Hope you had that if you played the race.

Yeah it said Blinkers on in the form.

[str]

hey str

sar R5 tomorrow

#5 southampton way (12-1)

2yof msw @ 5.5 dirt

horse I like is by a 75k stud win early sire out of an unraced dam whose produced 4 winners/6 starters and 1stakes winner..3 of the 6 were 2yo winners..dam sire is not for love who was one of the best maryland stallions
of all time I believe ..he was probably a little too late for you to have seen any of his progeny..sagamore farm bred
and owned and she's a maryland bred..not for love was a sprint sire ..avg win distance 6.5f

went off 6-5 in muddy track debut at pimlico and ran an even race..gets blinkers today

trainer I guess is a maryland guy..workouts all at laurel..
has some unreal stats..

16/55 ..overall 2017
2/5 ..first blinkers
4/12 ..2nd career starts
6/24 .. 46-90 days off
2/3 ..with jock aboard L60 days and huge roi
solid steady works

sorry if I went overboard with info..the maryland connection and the first blinkers thought would be interesting to you..just figured i'd put it out there and if you have any comments love to hear them

Nice job JBEX !

[JBEX]

Nice job JBEX !

thanks str.. felt good especially the way I've been going.. if I happen to come across any more I'll let you know, whether I like them or not, if you want

[JBEX]

hey str

anthony dutrow has a 2yo filly firster going two turns on the turf at sar today 1st race.. nice pedigree.. above avg turf sire and unraced
dam has produced two winners from as many starters and both won on turf.. bred and owned by the same guy.. solid steady works and gets irad ortiz..like her at a price

#7 sweet bye and bye (12-1)

[str]

hey str

anthony dutrow has a 2yo filly firster going two turns on the turf at sar today 1st race.. nice pedigree.. above avg turf sire and unraced
dam has produced two winners from as many starters and both won on turf.. bred and owned by the same guy.. solid steady works and gets irad ortiz..like her at a price

#7 sweet bye and bye (12-1)

I am aware of this but thank you. I am not aware of every horse that Tony enters. Appreciate the heads up.

I see no reason why you would not have her on your ticket at that price.

[JBEX]

I am aware of this but thank you. I am not aware of every horse that Tony enters. Appreciate the heads up.

I see no reason why you would not have her on your ticket at that price.

overall he doesn't go for it first out as you probably know but up there that's out the window.. bill mott also has one in there and he's also not a win first out guy.. see what happens.. thanks

[str]

overall he doesn't go for it first out as you probably know but up there that's out the window.. bill mott also has one in there and he's also not a win first out guy.. see what happens.. thanks

We were both taught the same way at the same time when it comes to firsters.

Never to say winning first time can't happen but the larger picture was more important.

But as you said, if ever the time, it would be now.

[mrginandtonic]

hey str

anthony dutrow has a 2yo filly firster going two turns on the turf at sar today 1st race.. nice pedigree.. above avg turf sire and unraced
dam has produced two winners from as many starters and both won on turf.. bred and owned by the same guy.. solid steady works and gets irad ortiz..like her at a price

#7 sweet bye and bye (12-1)

I am just curious about your pick on the 7, is it based solely on pedigree?? Also, is it because you like Dutrow as a turf trainer? While I don't have the extensive knowledge about pedigree as you do, I believe Sky Mesa is so so sire for turf, better on dirt (even though DRF says 14% first starter and 13% turf). For this race, 2yo MSW going 1 1/16 on turf, most of time it is difficult distance to do at first start. Don't you like the 5-Miss Mo Mentum more? His first was at 5f going dirt, she was bumped, and taken up sharply and still ran decent to 4th place. She was bet down to favorite or co-favorite. She is out of (Indian Charlie- grandsire and Mineshaft) both with good turf breeding. Casse's numbers are good for 2nd starts, 2yo, and dirt to turf move. Only draw back is Casse seems kinda in a cold spell lately. The other one may be Pletcher's horse but I never like him. The other one that I like is the 10- Our Girl Abby, trained by Mike Maker and with Leparoux on the iron, she should go straight to the lead and hopefully can hang on. That is my opinion, I am just curious about your picks. I just like to have open discussions about horse racing. Thanks and GL.

[JBEX]

I used to use a book for sire ratings but now just go by overall and first time turf numbers in brisnet pp's..I consider her #'s avg to above avg ..the dam's 2 winners from 2 starters and both won on turf is big for me..the dpi is 2.16 so that means they had to be halfway decent horses but not stakes winners..The biggest reason I wouldn't play yours or the favorite for that matter is I'm looking to catch firsters in these types of races for the most part..if I'm playing a horse who's run before I prefer the races to not look good ..it's too easy to me to take horses who have run halfway decent dirt races and play them in these types of races..when they beat me I'm fine with that..with few exceptions I'm playing either bad dirt form or first time starters both w/pedigree and or trainer angles..I bring up anthony dutrow because str knows him and he's a high quality trainer

[mrginandtonic]

I used to use a book for sire ratings but now just go by overall and first time turf numbers in brisnet pp's..I consider her #'s avg to above avg ..the dam's 2 winners from 2 starters and both won on turf is big for me..the dpi is 2.16 so that means they had to be halfway decent horses but not stakes winners..The biggest reason I wouldn't play yours or the favorite for that matter is I'm looking to catch firsters in these types of races for the most part..if I'm playing a horse who's run before I prefer the races to not look good ..it's too easy to me to take horses who have run halfway decent dirt races and play them in these types of races..when they beat me I'm fine with that..with few exceptions I'm playing either bad dirt form or first time starters both w/pedigree and or trainer angles..I bring up anthony dutrow because str knows him and he's a high quality trainer

Interesting angles. good to know and thanks for sharing. always learning.