How to play race .....

[Dark Horse]

I thought I'd open a thread where people can share how they would play certain situations. I read somewhere that a lot of good horse cappers end up losing money because they're not so good with value, so ...

Example. I capped a race for this Thursday. Ten horses, four or five contenders. I decided on #1 (10-1) and #7 (5-2). I think either one of these horses will win, and they may finish 1 and 2.

What's the best way to bet that? Obviously, #1 has more value; #7 is the favorite, at this time. Each to win, and an exacta box? And what bet sizing? Are there more creative ways of betting this?

For the record, this is quarter horse racing. Pure all-out sprint. No other strategy. The two horses have a beautiful speed gap to the rest of the field.

[Dark Horse]

Result:
POS Finisher Win Place Show
1st 1-El Duranguense $17.40 $12.20 $5.80
2nd 3-Quick Check Out - $5.80 $5.20
3rd 4-Behold The First - - $6.20

I played 1 and 7 to win. And the same two horses in an exacta box. In this case I would have been better off only betting on the 1 horse to win.

Not a bad score, but I don't feel like I'm maximizing my profits. I look for value, but can never really decide if it's better to play to win only, or to add more bets. In this case an exacta box seemed to make sense. In the Breeders Cup I had Gio Ponti to win (12-1), but an exacta with the sky high favorite (Zenyatta) would have been better. Is there some scientific formula for this? I have a bunch of horse books laying around, but haven't come across the answer to this question.

[andywend]

There are no set answers to the questions you're asking.

Each race needs to be handicapped on its own.

My advice is to set your own odds on what you believe each horse should go off at based on your handicapping. The higher the overlay, the more you should wager.

AS far as what type of bets to wager on, its important to remember that exotic betting comes with a higher takeout than regular win/place/show betting and its normally a much longer time between drinks when betting exotics.

[Dark Horse]

I wish there was a horse bet size calculator. W/P/S and some exotics.

Set aside 20% for the non-contenders, and divide the remaining 80% among contenders, and translate into decimal odds. That way you could make slight adjustments that would immediately affect the odds for the other horses.

And finally, translate those numbers into one or more sets of bet sizes.

SBR???

[Dark Horse]

something like this, but more flexible and user-friendly

http://www.sportbet.com/calc/RacingCalc.asp

http://www.sportbet.com/tools/ExactaPredictor.htm

[Art Vandeleigh]

I would say the bets at the track with most to least value are:


1) Pick-3 - The takeout is high (around 25%), but it is only taken once for 3 races, so the effect is an overall much lower take than parlaying. You can check this out by going to Equibase or DRF and actually parlaying the results of 3 consecutive races (which have a pick-3) and then compare the pick-3 price to the parlay price. The pick-3 price is almost always considerably higher. Pick-4 and pick-6 follow as well, but with greater variance

2) Win - lowest takeout (15-18%)

3) Trifecta - High take (around 22-25%) but opportunities for overlays because most players at the track have limited bankrolls and can't go too deep with combinations.

4) Place - Also low takeout same as win bet. The main problem with place betting is your payoff is very dependent on the other horse coming in. In your example, the 10-1 coming in with the 5/2 may only pay $6 or $7 for a $2 ticket, but if another long shot came in it may pay in the $12-$15 range. If you play place, you need to learn how to make a quick rough estimate of the payoff using the numbers on the tote board to decide if it's an acceptable risk.

5) superfecta - High take (22-25%) but huge opportunities for overlays for the same reasons as trifecta, but much greater. Problem here is you need a pretty big bankroll to play the superfecta effectively.

6) Daily Double - Also because it is consecutive races the overall take is reduced. However all combinations can be seen before the race, so overlays will be spotted and bet down.

7) Show - Low take, but breakage becomes too big a factor. For example, the true calculted odds of a show horse may have been 1.58 - 1 and should have paid $3.16 to show. Most track will round down to $3.00, however, which is really adding a lot greater % to the take.

8) Exacta - The worst bet at the track imo. High takeout (22-25%), no benefit of consecutive races takeout reduction like pick-3, and all the payoffs can be seen by everyone so overlays will be bet down. The most efficient way to demolish your bankroll is to play exactas imo.

[Dark Horse]

Good info.

[floridagolfer]

You thought 1 or 7 would win and there were a couple of other logical contenders. I probably would have played trifectas with 1 and 7 on top of the others (1/4-5-6-7/4-5-6-7; and 7/1-4-5-6/1-4-5-6). This way, provided you've properly separated the contenders from the pretenders, you have to be right about one thing only and that is the winner; let the others fall in whatever order they wish.

But trying to maximize value is hardly a scientific exercise. It has a lot to do with bankroll, how strongly you feel about the way you've handicapped the horses in the race, how many horses you're including in your wagers, etc.

[BarkingToad]

I don't think anyone really knows the right answer, as indicated by the underwhelming response to your thread. Whoever could uncover the answer might win a Nobel Prize instead of, well anyway. If it were me I'd play the 10/1 horse win & place, with twice as much on my place bet and not even mess with the favorite. If you didn't really care for the #7 horse or Zenyatta, why play at relatively low odds.

In other words play $5 to win and $10 place on higher price horse you like, or $10 win 18 to place and $1 exacta box 1,7. You found a horse that has true value, which is so difficult to do, so why play anything else in race when you really believe in higher price horse. Rather than screwing with a saver bet on a 5/2, which likely would be 8/5 after the race has started, look to see if there would be any hittable pick 3's, 4's, or 6 in the race card sequence. Then maybe add the 7 horse like w,x,y with 1,7 with b,c or a w/ 1,7 w/ b w/ x,y,z. An $18 or $20 horse in a pick 6 could be potentially life changing instead of betting against yourself in the same race using a favorite.

Just my 2 cents, but I'll put a penny win/ place on the higher price horse.

[Dark Horse]

Bernie Meadows (money secrets at the race track) explains value betting in two steps: set your own line for each horse, and then bet only if you get a 50% overlay. He does give a good suggestion to not bet a horse to win if your line is higher than 6-1. So he's betting by watching the tote board all the way. And he only takes about an hour to determine lines for a whole race card (all races on the form). I do believe he goes into bet size in his book as well, but I haven't gotten there yet. The book is as insightful as dry. If you ever have trouble sleeping read this book.

Steve Fierro (four quarter of horse investing) simplifies things by having a pre-made grid of odds, for contenders (non-contenders get 20%, and the remaining 80% is divided between the four or five contenders), to show which races have value, just from the odds on the board. That could save some time.

The problem is that I'm not nearly fast enough to cap ten races in an hour, like Meadows. When I look at a form the only thing I can do quickly is decide which two or three races I will cap. Then I may spend up to two hours on one race, looking for horses with value.

So I haven't made the transition from capping the race to betting value in a way that is time-effective. And I never may. My approach is to identify horses in the 1-8 to 1-20 range to win or place. But once I have spend so much time on one race, and think I have a winner, I don't really want to pass because of last second tote board action. I guess I try getting around the issue of bet sizing based on overlays by pre-selecting horses in the 'value range'.

My main problem is time constraints. I'm looking into computerizing the process as much as possible. But it's still a long way before completing the circle from capping horses for value, then comparing that value to the odds in the last minute before the race goes off, and deciding bet size based on my overlays. What a task. lol. No wonder people look for shortcuts. For now I'm just wondering what it would be like to be able to do that. What if...?


1) cap race, and calculate lines for each horse.
2) watch the tote board's final action
3) determine bet size based on the 'almost closing lines'. And/or build in a 50% overlay cushion to compensate for late changes (Meadow's suggestion).

Everybody can pick winners. But who can -truly- identify and bet value?

Long way to go. F*ck.

[thezbar]

I thought I'd open a thread where people can share how they would play certain situations. I read somewhere that a lot of good horse cappers end up losing money because they're not so good with value, so ...

Example. I capped a race for this Thursday. Ten horses, four or five contenders. I decided on #1 (10-1) and #7 (5-2). I think either one of these horses will win, and they may finish 1 and 2.

What's the best way to bet that? Obviously, #1 has more value; #7 is the favorite, at this time. Each to win, and an exacta box? And what bet sizing? Are there more creative ways of betting this?

For the record, this is quarter horse racing. Pure all-out sprint. No other strategy. The two horses have a beautiful speed gap to the rest of the field.

What I would do in this situation is play the 1 to win and key the one on top in a trifecta to three other horses one of which would be the seven. If I like two horses equally I play the one with the longer odds. A possible savor bet would be the a pick 3 starting with the 1 and 7 if the next to races were playable. There is no real set answer to this situation. imo