added oaklawn 6
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Comment -
added fg 13Comment -
gulfstream
R4 #7 bitty boss (8-1) 3WP
oaklawn
R6 #9 bet he's ready (8-1) 3WP
fairgrounds
R9 #3 macee (6-1) 3WP
.Comment -
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there is a major flaw tracking things this way vs playing with a mythical bank and honestly have always known it
could do the math but I'll spare you..at an avg of $6 bet per race a realistic bankroll for this would be imo 400-500..establishing a starting bank imo is necessary to give this some meaning..the roi should be profit or loss related to bankroll and not volume..the amount of plays is important..losing 50 over 300 plays better than losing it over 100 plays which is why # of plays should be noted
currently at a $47 loss ..
300 bank [0.84]
400 bank [0.88]
450 bank [0.90]
500 bank [0.91]
600 bank [0.92]
300 aggressive and 600 conservative imo..also important in bank considerations is that the avg of $6/race almost always includes a win and place bet
if my roi based on volume were 0.85 then a $500 bank would be about halved by now (mine's 0.97)
if I declared a 500 (mythical) bank at the beginning should look something like this
(287) 500b/452c [0.90]
287 plays
500s= 500 starting bank
452c =452 current bank
[0.90] roi based on bank
these numbers much more meaningful than return/volume
and you are accounting for volume with # of plays
then there's the other reasonable argument that a sample size large enough to mean anything would be at minimum in the 1000's of plays
for these reasons I'm going to discontinue this thread at the end of the month
may start another in january (same subject) but only post race results vs tallying
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-16-21, 05:51 PM.Comment -
fairgrounds
R8 #6 dreamworker (6-1) 3WP
gulfstream
R10 #5 london lady (9-2) 3WP
turfway
R5 #5 sign of peace (8-1) 3WP (8:14)
.
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-16-21, 06:05 PM.Comment -
added turfway 5Comment -
aqueduct
R1 #5 my brother cam (7-2) 3WP
gulfstream
R11 #8 scarab (8-1) 3WPComment -
aqueduct
R5 #7 tempermental (9-2) 3WP
gulfstream
R6 #7 american pyramid (8-1) 3WP
.Comment -
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tampa
R5 #3 complete agenda (5-2) 6WComment -
tampa (3:48)
R8 #7 giant's fire (6-1) 4WP
very expensive for the ped specs and his freshmen sire off to a fast start ,no pun,with firsters (this one) and runners overall..under the radar trainer (with babies) could help the price but still think he'll be bet
turfway (8:14)
R5 #4 madamoussepousee (5-1)
give me a break lol 3WP
some other category 2yo races I'll probably look at but that's all for the msw's
delta (1:55)
R1 #7 lauri's wish (4-1) 4W
with the purses for msw's I think you could make a case for mid-level track..I will go the minimum to partly compensate for that..unusual to see a horse debut at gulfstream for mcl 50k that's a louisiana bred..ran evenly and this is obviously a much softer field (la breds) and horse is not up for sale..trainer on fire at this meet..see if he can handle the bullring which at 7.5f is 3 turns
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-23-21, 12:26 PM.Comment -
added delta 1Comment -
tampa
R6 #1 illogical love (5-2) 6WComment -
thursday
3rd @ 9-1 (8)
out @ 7-2 (6)
WIN $3.60 ($7.20/4)
friday
2nd @ 7-2 (6) only to win
(4) 7.20/24
(298) 1699.55/1771 [0.95]
.Comment -
gulfstream (sunday)
R1 #3 barrett (20-1) 2WP
R6 #1 galt (6-1) 4WP
R8 #4 wolfe county (10-1) 3WP
santa anita
R1 #3 sweet savant (20-1) 3WP
first timer by trainer who is not good with them..however the combo of other things; pedigree, jockey,field lacks depth and special to win on opening day may overcome that weakness
fairgrounds
R1 #8 marquee ride (7-2) 4WP
R4 #7 georgetown road (6-1)3WP
R6 #9 legionnaire (4-1) 4WP
R12 #5 charlemagne (8-1) 3WP
tampa
R9 #5 hand gesture (3-1) 3WP
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-25-21, 04:43 PM.Comment -
added santa anita and fairgroundsComment -
finished gulfstream and did 1 at tampa..did the santa anita card using the thorographs in the other threadComment -
fairgrounds
R5 #5 know by heart (12-1) 2WP
santa anita
R9 #4 hemmerle (5-1) 4WP
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-27-21, 02:32 PM.Comment -
added santa anita 9Comment -
12/26
out @ 59-1(4)
WIN $8.00/5.40 (26.80/8)
out @ 6-1 (6)
out @ 31-1(6)
out @ 7-5 (8)
out @ 3-1 (6)
out @ 5-2 (8)
out @ 14-1 (6)
2nd @ 2-1 $4.60 (6.90/6)
12/27
out @ 6-1 (4)
SLOPPY
(10) 33.70/62
(298) 1699.55/1771 [0.95]
(308) 1733.25/1833 [0.94]
.Comment -
aqueduct
R5 #3 our shot (9-2) 4WP
fairgrounds
R2 #5 bouldering (6-1) 4WP
R4 #1 holy city (8-1) 4WP
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-30-21, 11:50 AM.Comment -
added fg 4Comment -
added fg 2Comment -
[QUOTE=JBEX;30709784]aqueduct
R5 #3 our shot (9-2) 4WP
sloppy
fairgrounds
R2 #5 bouldering (6-1) 4WP
R4 #1 holy city (8-1) 4WP
off turf
.[/QUOTE]
(308) 1733.25/1833 [0.94]Comment -
aqueduct
R8 #10 curlin's wisdom (5-2) 8W
probably odds-on
fairgrounds
R2 #3 autumn's so flashy (8-1) 4WP
laurel
R6 #9 determined gold (6-1) 4WP
oaklawn
R7 #2 favorite outlaw (3-1) 4WP
tampa bay
R5 #2 origo (12-1) 3WP
.Last edited by JBEX; 12-31-21, 10:14 AM.Comment -
added laurel 6Comment -
added oaklawn and tampa bay..that's all for today and will bring an end to this thread..going to start another doing this but will only be graded (results) and not talliedComment