kentucky derby future bet

[littlekona]

Same game winner short.....boxcar pick 4 3600$ + for a buck

[JBEX]

Same game winner short.....boxcar pick 4 3600$ + for a buck

think they both gave a good accounting of themselves especially considering the circumstances.. the pick 4 paid about double the parlay price which is not surprising with both of baffert's not winning.. you
had the right idea littlekona

[littlekona]

think they both gave a good accounting of themselves especially considering the circumstances.. the pick 4 paid about double the parlay price which is not surprising with both of baffert's not winning.. you
had the right idea littlekona

I heard on TVG that a guy needed game winner in the free pick 8 contest for 100K...had first 7...wow to lose like that 100K would be so tough !

[BigJay]

Wild Derby prep season. Heavy favs losing every race so far.

I have Code of Honor for $70 at 35/1 (online) and Improbable for $75 at 17/1 (futures pool 1).

Seems to be most wide open year in recent memory.

[JBEX]

game winner probably traveled at least an extra 25 feet than roadster so that was an excellent effort.. especially when you factor in the other stuff he had to deal with coming up to the race not including only 3 weeks since the rebel stakes.. think when you also factor in he won the bc juvenile at churchill with brisnet numbers (pace and speed) that are faster than most of the current crop is running now.. I think this will not be lost on the betting public and with a decent draw he will be the favorite on derby day..

tax made a good showing also.. dug in towards the end, very game ..i know some will say he had the perfect trip behind two horses battling on the front end in a very fast pace.. I think these aren't the easiest of trips when your sitting 5-7 lengths off and maybe lured in to move too soon behind the collapsing pace...has the points and will more than likely be going

[littlekona]

game winner probably traveled at least an extra 25 feet than roadster so that was an excellent effort.. especially when you factor in the other stuff he had to deal with coming up to the race not including only 3 weeks since the rebel stakes.. think when you also factor in he won the bc juvenile at churchill with brisnet numbers (pace and speed) that are faster than most of the current crop is running now.. I think this will not be lost on the betting public and with a decent draw he will be the favorite on derby day..

tax made a good showing also.. dug in towards the end, very game ..i know some will say he had the perfect trip behind two horses battling on the front end in a very fast pace.. I think these aren't the easiest of trips when your sitting 5-7 lengths off and maybe lured in to move too soon behind the collapsing pace...has the points and will more than likely be going

He lost race going around first turn forced wide instead of dropping in....If you like Game Winner that was the best outcome possible price wise. The fact though that he was passed in stretch though does give him a strike...there will be no solid fav maybe 4-6 horses between 5-1 and 10-1...The preps to me where weak yesterday. The sleeper horse may be Signalman who if goes will be much farther back in Derby and that race was sneaky good..

[JBEX]

He lost race going around first turn forced wide instead of dropping in....If you like Game Winner that was the best outcome possible price wise. The fact though that he was passed in stretch though does give him a strike...there will be no solid fav maybe 4-6 horses between 5-1 and 10-1...The preps to me where weak yesterday. The sleeper horse may be Signalman who if goes will be much farther back in Derby and that race was sneaky good..

I think the fact that they are both baffert's the extra ground traveled will not be a secret.. but it's certainly better than him winning.. my biggest worry with gw is this whole sequence.. switching venues, hard race back in 3 weeks, hard race .. might have left his best race on the track.. certainly different experience to run in the san felipe (as intended) track the leaders blow by them and win with something to spare than doing it this way..i have to see it all on paper to make a final decision.. will watch signalman's race

[littlekona]

I think the fact that they are both baffert's the extra ground traveled will not be a secret.. but it's certainly better than him winning.. my biggest worry with gw is this whole sequence.. switching venues, hard race back in 3 weeks, hard race .. might have left his best race on the track.. certainly different experience to run in the san felipe (as intended) track the leaders blow by them and win with something to spare than doing it this way..i have to see it all on paper to make a final decision.. will watch signalman's race

Id also rather have Rosario then Smith...as good as Smith is I like Rosario way more esp off the pace plus Rosario gets a better price...I’ll use GW for sure in pick 4 and 5 & toss roadster and improbable too

[JBEX]

Id also rather have Rosario then Smith...as good as Smith is I like Rosario way more esp off the pace plus Rosario gets a better price...I’ll use GW for sure in pick 4 and 5 & toss roadster and improbable too

not committed to him.. if I like someone else on derby day I'll hop off.. curious to see what figure the wood produced also

[littlekona]

not committed to him.. if I like someone else on derby day I'll hop off.. curious to see what figure the wood produced also

Time form 120 which was highest 113 Sa derby 119 bluegrass.

in my opinion it was the worst though and I won’t use any on win end from wood also none from Florida derby...winner had perfect trip again in a trouble filled race with not much talent to begin with...So far Sa derby runner up 3rd in bluegrass and Omaha beach are only ones I am using but sure will add 2 or 3 more

[JBEX]

Time form 120 which was highest 113 Sa derby 119 bluegrass.

in my opinion it was the worst though and I won’t use any on win end from wood also none from Florida derby...winner had perfect trip again in a trouble filled race with not much talent to begin with...So far Sa derby runner up 3rd in bluegrass and Omaha beach are only ones I am using but sure will add 2 or 3 more

sometimes i think when the pace is that quick the advantage becomes less because the front collapses quicker and you're drawn in sooner than you normally would be..but this a supposition by me and could be wrong about that

on the timeform ratings they take into account the pace of the race I believe..if that's so that means that tax's figure might not be exactly 1 length less than tacitus..could be more or less probably the latter..is that how it works?

[littlekona]

sometimes i think when the pace is that quick the advantage becomes less because the front collapses quicker and you're drawn in sooner than you normally would be..but this a supposition by me and could be wrong about that

on the timeform ratings they take into account the pace of the race I believe..if that's so that means that tax's figure might not be exactly 1 length less than tacitus..could be more or less probably the latter..is that how it works?

Not exactly sure but I do feel that tax is and easy toss out even to finish In top 5....the 3rd place runner too In wood is toss...this year just seems very sub par.

[JBEX]

Not exactly sure but I do feel that tax is and easy toss out even to finish In top 5....the 3rd place runner too In wood is toss...this year just seems very sub par.

admittedly a little biased with him bit don't feel that way and encouraged the race came up with a solid timeform figure..he ran big brisnet figures in the withers and gotham
?? prior to that and the former was actually 2-3 lengths faster than par pace..bred to run all day top and bottom..hey this is what it's all about ..viewing things differently ..always a lot of fun to cap the derby

[littlekona]

This is interesting points standings....complete bs that England and Japan get auto qualifier so Actually have to be top 18 is USA points....

https://www.paulickreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/20190406-Road-to-the-Kentucky-Derby-Leaderboard.pdf

[JBEX]

This is interesting points standings....complete bs that England and Japan get auto qualifier so Actually have to be top 18 is USA points....

https://www.paulickreport.com/wp-con...eaderboard.pdf

too complicated for me

[littlekona]

I just watched replays and noticed the gallop out of roadster was horrible..he was pulled up right after wire while game winner galloped out strong for about 1/8 th mile...not sure why smith would do that but for me that is s big negative

[JBEX]

I just watched replays and noticed the gallop out of roadster was horrible..he was pulled up right after wire while game winner galloped out strong for about 1/8 th mile...not sure why smith would do that but for me that is s big negative

yes as you said not a good sign for roadster and a positive for gw imo

[littlekona]

And a sigh of relief from the USA based horses owners as Uss Michigan is off the board as the even money sucker bet of day at Chelmsford uk....I cant believe they have that as a win and your in basically

[JBEX]

And a sigh of relief from the USA based horses owners as Uss Michigan is off the board as the even money sucker bet of day at Chelmsford uk....I cant believe they have that as a win and your in basically

I can't imagine being scared off by any of the euros if any of them make it into the gate.. they're auto - throw outs to me

[JBEX]

I can't imagine being scared off by any of the euros if any of them make it into the gate.. they're auto - throw outs to me

but like your opinion on this..

average G1 euro a top G1 stakes horse here?
average G2 - G3 euro a G1 horse here
average listed stakes euro about G2 or G3 here?
allowance euro about listed stakes G3 here ?


let's say we're talking england and france

[littlekona]

I can't imagine being scared off by any of the euros if any of them make it into the gate.. they're auto - throw outs to me

I meant sigh of relief (bubble horses points wise) as that spot now is open so 19 horses USA based will run since Japan has one auto qualifier....that race was a joke of a favorite...i was going to lay him but instead bet the winner at 6/1 odds made my day!

[JBEX]

I'd rather have another domestic runner rather than a foreigner for the obvious reason.. the latter an auto-toss but the just snuck inside the bubble horse also more than likely wouldn't interest me

[littlekona]

I'd rather have another domestic runner rather than a foreigner for the obvious reason.. the latter an auto-toss but the just snuck inside the bubble horse also more than likely wouldn't interest me

If a uk horse wants to run they should ship to Dubai and get points that way...these UK polytrack races are a joke mine deserved....turf racing though far far superior uk, Japan and Australia..

no uk horse taking up spot 19 helps one of my long shots Signalman since after this weekend he will be bubble.....interesting this weekend hood goes on improbable....most Baffert have hood on from beginning so not sure what to make of it but it being a big negative