small track maidens and stakes

[JBEX]

parx

R7 #9 space captain (4-1)

claimed 3 back at GP for 35k..probably grabbed so could run vs nybs for big purse money.. has had to deal with bad post, extremely fast paces and racing against better company.. by the pars state bred mdn clm 40k in ny is significantly better than mdn clm 20k at parx. .with what he's shown vs better this much easier assignment.. trainer has tremendous numbers 12/33 down 2+ classes
and 18/68 3rd off the layoff.. odds probably lower unfortunately

R10 #4 jw goingtothebank (12-1)

finally drops to where he can win mcl 10k.. his last race at mcl 20k would make him tough in here.. don't get the ml ??

[Easy-Rider 66]

post, Figured it out. GL today.

[JBEX]

post, Figured it out. GL today.

K..thanks

[JBEX]

going to add a couple of more categories to this thread (small track maidens and stakes(all)... the next 2 types of races I like most are long grass routes of >=1¼ miles and conditioned claiming races.. happened to glance at 2 races like this being run today and really liked one and had an opinion on the other.. only other one I'd like to add is 3yo only claimers.. no allowance (except turf marathons) or open claiming (older horses).. I'd like to have a few more opportunities open in this thread but definitely want some restrictions in place

just a reminder above that i've expanded the categories in this thread a bit


R4 #5 infield is in (15-1)

stretches out of a nothing sprint on paper but looks line one that could set hm up for two turns..has hit route figures vs better horses not too far back that would work vs these


R7 #1 empress of the nile (8-5)

[JBEX]

arlington million R11

#8 money multiplier (6-1)


secretariat stakes R9

#2 platinum warrior (10-1)

trying to beat the chad-monster #9 analyze it.. like the fact that this one won a grade 3 two starts back at this distance at the curragh in ireland.. maybe the grade 1 last out at the same venue at 1½ miles a bit much for him and graded stakes over there are definitely considered better than same level races over here.. being by the best stallion in the world galileo (although she was cheap at $224k...average is $586k) a good thing


R12 pucker up stakes g3

#7 madame milan (20-1)

half to barbaro by bernardini so nice pedigree.. nothing fancy here it's a 3yo stakes and think this guy can hang with them

[JBEX]

added arlington R9

[JBEX]

added R12 arlington

[JBEX]

indiana grande

R1 #4 bronze air (10-1)

ran similar line to last out 3 back on 6/22 at 5.5f and returning at 6f ran 2nd back in 18 days today's circumstances the same. .exactly 18 days and going 5.5 to 6f


R6 #10 she love me (10-1)

write up in str thread if you care


R9 #4 scatrattleandroll (4-1)


the ml favorite is scratched so likely to be much lower.. by an elite sire out of a dam who won first out as a 2yo..these things do stick out at minor tracks.. first start was an even 4th of 8 on a muddy track at churchill.. tries 5f on the turf here for owner/breeder



bonus afternoon baseball

teams who came back from a deficit after 8 innings on sunday night baseball are 10-0 since 2004..margins are even better when they're home the following game as the cubs are today.the last team to do the home/home was the cubs in 2016 who won 5-0...the three other scores when homefollowing game 5-0,5-0 (coincidence 3 were 5-0) and 5-4

cubs -145




three more maidens gonna look at

[JBEX]

finished indiana

[Louisvillekid1]

great work

[JBEX]

great work

thanks

[Easy-Rider 66]

great work

Great work posting plays here LKID no doubt. Results oriented with performance data? Horse of another color.

[JBEX]

Great work posting plays here LKID no doubt. Results oriented with performance data? Horse of another color.

here's the bottom line..after a few thousand races it would be a minor miracle if you had a better roi than me..people on here will have to decide whether they believe that or not..and making that determination carries a lot more weight imo than the results of a few hundred races..you don't now and never will understand this game on the level I do..i'm not saying there are not people who understand it a lot better than me because there are many of those..I will continue to do things the way I do them

[Easy-Rider 66]

here's the bottom line..after a few thousand races it would be a minor miracle if you had a better roi than me..people on here will have to decide whether they believe that or not..and making that determination carries a lot more weight imo than the results of a few hundred races..you don't now and never will understand this game on the level I do..i'm not saying there are not people who understand it a lot better than me because there are many of those..I will continue to do things the way I do them

I would hope not as you have many more years of experience. But what has your in depth understanding of the game gotten you? Not much I would assume if you are posting losing picks on a horse forum? The sharks are playing the tourney sites JBEX. Not posting on a horse forum. And production means something in this game I would think. Has your expert understanding of the game translated into success? Do not see it. And yeah most lose in this game. Tough it is. But to think you are a top capper is foolish. Just my 2 cents.

[Easy-Rider 66]

here's the bottom line..after a few thousand races it would be a minor miracle if you had a better roi than me..people on here will have to decide whether they believe that or not..and making that determination carries a lot more weight imo than the results of a few hundred races..you don't now and never will understand this game on the level I do..i'm not saying there are not people who understand it a lot better than me because there are many of those..I will continue to do things the way I do them

And like I said JBEX I would be willing to do a contest against you with no limits. NO caps. Play until someone quits. Until one of us Realizes that they are hopelessly behind. I agree you have more to lose in that scenario because of your experience. But I really think your methods are flawed to the point I can stay close. THink it over. I will grade. Post your 2K + plays and hope for the best.

[Easy-Rider 66]

And do not forget JBEX that STR's willingness to share his knowledge and expertise has given me an understanding of the game that many of the so called rookies do not have. You have studied this game for 35+ years but only in last 6 years did you like me have STR's thread as a resource. WORD. I am assuming you never had the opinions of a trainer for most of your years in this game? I am correct in that assessment?

[JBEX]

I believe it's worthless but if you want to waste your time go right ahead..i'm not changing the way I do things though..all my maiden posts will be in that thread in the same post for that day (not doing separate posts for each play) all other plays will be in a new thread I will start titled just that "other plays"..maidens 4WP ..other thread 2WP..2 exactas if I want..that good?

[Easy-Rider 66]

]I believe it's worthless but if you want to waste your time go right ahead[/B]..i'm not changing the way I do things though..all my maiden posts will be in that thread in the same post for that day (not doing separate posts for each play) all other plays will be in a new thread I will start titled just that "other plays"..maidens 4WP ..other thread 2WP..2 exactas if I want..that good?

Would not want to start until Keeneland commences. If you believe it's futile not sure what the point is then other than shutting me up. I like the competitive nature of contests. And this one would have no predetermined ending. Let's revisit in SEPT sometime. I do not care how you post, but keep in mind I mostly play in real time. Anyway think it over, and we can agree to some rules via PM and maybe compete. But if you really feel it's worthless then maybe not a good idea.

[JBEX]

Would not want to start until Keeneland commences. If you believe it's futile not sure what the point is then other than shutting me up. I like the competitive nature of contests. And this one would have no predetermined ending. Let's revisit in SEPT sometime. I do not care how you post, but keep in mind I mostly play in real time. Anyway think it over, and we can agree to some rules via PM and maybe compete. But if you really feel it's worthless then maybe not a good idea.

so now I have to believe it's a good idea too..not enough
to just agree to do it..so all the reasons that i've stated on here why I think it doesn't make sense go in the garbage

you decide if you want to keep track now or in the future but i'm not going to

[Easy-Rider 66]

so now I have to believe it's a good idea too..not enough
to just agree to do it..so all the reasons that i've stated on here why I think it doesn't make sense go in the garbage

you decide if you want to keep track now or in the future but i'm not going to

I do not buy the sample size stuff. Sorry. And this proposed contest would have no limits. So in theory could go on for years. LOL. Anyway it's real simple. If I quit because I know I am hopelessly behind then I congratulate you and say you were the better capper during that period. And vice versa. Problem is you are hung up on a theory that someone throwing darts could beat an expert capper like yourself. So in reality you will not accept defeat at the hands of a rookie so you are right it's a pointless exercise. And I do not want to waste my time grading a contest that has no winner. I will carry on. Made my points, and if you choose to answer my inquires in the previous posts great. If not, no worries.

[JBEX]

I didn't say you were throwing darts, you did.. since you don't buy the "sample size stuff " why don't we have a 10 race contest.. then whoever wins is the better horseplayer right ? sample size doesn't matter so why go on forever with this.. why wouldn't 10 races be enough? would 100 be more accurate? 500 now that would definitely do it right? after the 500 if we're not sure should we go another 500? no no I think we'd need to go 1001-1500 because my average odds were much higher than yours and I'll need more time to prove myself..but then again in the sample size article I showed you at avg odds of 9-1
over 2375 races roi was +5.77% but they finished even after 17,774 races ... I mean we're trying to prove something here right beyond you beat me or I beat you over such and such amount of races or why bother ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Forget it JBEX. You can keep thinking you are expert top Handicapper and most others throw DARTS. The reality is I am coming closer to your beliefs I guess, as I would bet my money on the dart throwers over your supposed expertise. Anyway when you start making bank on the tourney sites let us know. Until then like some of us here you are an average capper imo.

[JBEX]

Forget it JBEX. You can keep thinking you are expert top Handicapper and most others throw DARTS. The reality is I am coming closer to your beliefs I guess, as I would bet my money on the dart throwers over your supposed expertise. Anyway when you start making bank on the tourney sites let us know. Until then like some of us here you are an average capper imo.

you keep saying that i think i'm an expert.. I come on here and post my picks using what I've learned about handicapping over the years.. have I ever bragged on here how good I am ? have I ever acted in acocky manner after hitting a winner.. no I don't even recognize my winners small or big...i think everybody else is throwing darts... why would you say that because I had one outburst at mrgnt on a point I disagreed with and later apologized..I come here to post plays and how I fare vs you over however many plays is unimportant to me.. it is pointless and settles nothing

[Easy-Rider 66]

here's the bottom line..after a few thousand races it would be a minor miracle if you had a better roi than me..people on here will have to decide whether they believe that or not..and making that determination carries a lot more weight imo than the results of a few hundred races..you don't now and never will understand this game on the level I do..i'm not saying there are not people who understand it a lot better than me because there are many of those..I will continue to do things the way I do them

you keep saying that i think i'm an expert.. I come on here and post my picks using what I've learned about handicapping over the years.. have I ever bragged on here how good I am ? have I ever acted in acocky manner after hitting a winner.. no I don't even recognize my winners small or big...i think everybody else is throwing darts... why would you say that because I had one outburst at mrgnt on a point I disagreed with and later apologized..I come here to post plays and how I fare vs you over however many plays is unimportant to me.. it is pointless and settles nothing

I do not know JBEX, but what I highlighted is self explanatory. And JBEX I agree you understand some of the elements of the game better than me. But I will emphasize some. For example, I asked you before who got you into pace figures some 2-3 years ago? It's in one of your threads here on the site. And the way you went after Mr. G&T was uncalled for. You did apologize, so I give you credit for that. Anyway Good luck moving forward. We for sure have some difference of opinions, but it is what is. And JBEX It's not what you think you know, But what you can prove. Until then it's all speculative. And IMO we have both been proven to be average cappers here on this board.

[JBEX]

saratoga

R9 alabama stakes grade 1

#1 piedi bianchi (15-1)

pletcher had this one entered in a statebred stakes worth 150k at Indiana grande earlier in the week..instead decides to go against the giant's in this spot..very solid competitor in california as a 2yo and was switched from doug o'neil to pletcher for her last start

he must think a lot of her to run here..like the even sprint vs older horses at belmont last out as a primer to try this..
chance to get a bit of a price with tp/jv for a change

[Easy-Rider 66]

saratoga

R9 alabama stakes grade 1

#1 piedi bianchi (15-1)

pletcher had this one entered in a statebred stakes worth 150k at Indiana grande earlier in the week..instead decides to go against the giant's in this spot..very solid competitor in california as a 2yo and was switched from doug o'neil to pletcher for her last start

he must think a lot of her to run here..like the even sprint vs older horses at belmont last out as a primer to try this..
chance to get a bit of a price with tp/jv for a change

Just so you know saw an interview with Pletcher On NYRA Live and I am under impression that Indiana downs race was rained out. Anyway. GL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Horse was primed for Indiana

Had to go

but it wouldn’t surprise me

gl

[JBEX]

Just so you know saw an interview with Pletcher On NYRA Live and I am under impression that Indiana downs race was rained out. Anyway. GL.

no she was scratched.. she was entered as a mto on thursday in an allowance race so she didn't go there either... from the paulick report

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/pletcher-piedi-bianchi-has-work-cut-out-in-grade-1-alabama/

[Easy-Rider 66]

Owned by Nice Guys Stables, Madaket Stables, Jack Bick, and Jay Oringer, the

Indiana-bred

filly by

Overanalyze

was originally entered in the Indiana First Lady for state-breds at Indiana Grand on Wednesday as well as Thursday's eighth race at the Spa, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event, before her connections opted for the 1 ¼-mile Grade 1.

OK. Thx for the link. Pletcher did say that the race was rained out though. But maybe they intended all along to run her today in Alabama. WHo knows.

[JBEX]

Owned by Nice Guys Stables, Madaket Stables, Jack Bick, and Jay Oringer, the

Indiana-bred

filly by

Overanalyze

was originally entered in the Indiana First Lady for state-breds at Indiana Grand on Wednesday as well as Thursday's eighth race at the Spa, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event, before her connections opted for the 1 ¼-mile Grade 1.

OK. Thx for the link. Pletcher did say that the race was rained out though. But maybe they intended all along to run her today in Alabama. WHo knows.

it was a sloppy sealed track so probably didn't want to go... don't get how you don't run at indiana 3 days ago and then in that short of a span have the horse vanned (or flown?) to saratoga for a race of this stature ..he must like this horse and think she's ready

[Easy-Rider 66]

it was a sloppy sealed track so probably didn't want to go... don't get how you don't run at indiana 3 days ago and then in that short of a span have the horse vanned (or flown?) to saratoga for a race of this stature ..he must like this horse and think she's ready

OK looks you are correct. Thx. Anyway GL today.

[JBEX]

OK you may be right but I do remember Indiana cancelling a card recently as you had posted some plays from there and I informed you the card was cancelled. Anyway GL today.

I saw the chart.. it was run unless

[Easy-Rider 66]

I saw the chart.. it was run unless

Yeah I checked the date of the article and realized I misheard Pletcher, I edited my post as you can see above.

[JBEX]

Yeah I checked the date of the article and realized I misheard Pletcher, I edited my post as you can see above.

okay

[JBEX]

del mar

R6 del mar handicap

#7 multiplier (8-1)


R8 del mar oaks

#5 fatale bere (6-1)

R10 pacific classic

#3 prime attraction (8-1)

his last race at dmr (win) on 11/25 was huge, pace figs, final fig at 9f (1f shorter than today) ..that race was preceded by a knocking heads on the front end turf race near miss just like he ran in his last race..has had previous marathon races on turf that suggest the extra distance shouldn't be a problem