2018 saratoga and del mar ...just maidens

[JBEX]

added R6

[JBEX]

gonna sneak a hurdle race in here

saratoga R1 #3 oskar denarius (15-1)

european off a nearly 3 year layoff and never raced over the jumps is trying a grade 1 ?? those bloodlines can't hurt his chances and in spite of his age (7) he only has 7 races (and running in the 7th month of the year... 777).. off going wouldn't hurt him either.. checked out the trainer (ben pauling) and looks like a pretty serious outfit.. stab but some interesting things

http://www.benpaulingracing.com/

this race was scheduled thursday but everything was off the turf..R1 today

no maidens till the 5th and there are 3 altogether.. peek at the p6 as there is a small carryover

[JBEX]

saratoga

R5 #7 johnny tickets (7-2)

servis ships up from monmouth with this first time starter.. of course he's a tremendous trainer and excellent with maidens.. a 50k mcl.here is worth 30-40% more than a msw at mth and the NY oriented owners would probably like to have a win up here i'm guessing.. sprint oriented pedigree top and bottom.. lethargic works but I never knock and only elevate (fast) horses based on this.. lezcano 2/4 last 60 days riding for him




R10 #1 unparalleled (4-1)

3yo..
6 career starts..
3 as 2yo..
his 3rd start today as a 3yo

just missed by a half length in his final start last year and comes to up to this with nice figure improvement (like his first 2 last year) ..gets the drop to maiden claiming here this time and castellano rides again.. dylan davis rode first 4 starts.. only cost 16k so this a more realistic spot

[JBEX]

added R10

[JBEX]

will definitely be on R1 (steeplechase) and R3 which i've glanced at and looks like a good race.. post everything tomorrow

[rdalert447]

Love the jumpers. Every so called pro out there says to stay away, yet it's exactly what they're looking for. It's the last frontier of horse racing. Limited information available on it unless you're willing to put in the work, which they swear that they're all about. The jump races offer incredible value on the front end of horizontals each and every year up there. Good luck, JBEX. Hope you bury it.

[JBEX]

Love the jumpers. Every so called pro out there says to stay away, yet it's exactly what they're looking for. It's the last frontier of horse racing. Limited information available on it unless you're willing to put in the work, which they swear that they're all about. The jump races offer incredible value on the front end of horizontals each and every year up there. Good luck, JBEX. Hope you bury it.

thanks.. have my angles and one of them happening in that race.. don't get many opportunities.. in general if I see nothing that appeals to me, will lay off

[JBEX]

looks like weather might be an issue so most likely gonna pass today

[JBEX]

saratoga R3


#5 chantry flats (15-1)

cost a lot relative to sire,dam and progeny..imo 2-3× more
than an avg horse with that pedigree ..tries turf for the first time and bred to handle it

#9 lonhtwist (10-1)

funny you have arguably the best jockey in ny whose father in law is arguably one of the worst trainers in
the same place..this one showed speed to the 4f mark and faded badly in his first start..this is a very solid turf pedigree though with the sire being lonhro and the dam banking over 350k..first foal won but wasn't much and this is the 2nd to race out of this mare..hopefully son in law riding him again for a reason


R6 #2 no deal (6-1) #7 rubellite (12-1)
R10 #6 supercommittee (5-1)


afternoon baseball

kc/chw under 9.5

[JBEX]

finished saratoga and an mlb pick

[Easy-Rider 66]

Glad you apologized to Mr. G&T. Just like you he is a valued memebr of the forum. Look forward to any discussion you two may have on the pedigree topic and other possible disagreements.

[JBEX]

Glad you apologized to Mr. G&T. Just like you he is a valued memebr of the forum. Look forward to any discussion you two may have on the pedigree topic and other possible disagreements.

I just felt even if I asked a question in a civil tone it'd lead to a heated or at least tense exchange.. but that doesn't mean I shouldn't have tried

[JBEX]

saratoga R3


#5 chantry flats (15-1)

cost a lot relative to sire,dam and progeny..imo 2-3× more
than an avg horse with that pedigree ..tries turf for the first time and bred to handle it

#9 lonhtwist (10-1)

funny you have arguably the best jockey in ny whose father in law is arguably one of the worst trainers in
the same place..this one showed speed to the 4f mark and faded badly in his first start..this is a very solid turf pedigree though with the sire being lonhro and the dam banking over 350k..first foal won but wasn't much and this is the 2nd to race out of this mare..hopefully son in law riding him again for a reason


R6 #2 no deal (6-1) #7 rubellite (12-1)
R10 #6 supercommittee (5-1)


afternoon baseball

kc/chw under 9.5

2-0 going into the 8th inning.. 7 runs total both teams in the 8th followed by a run in the 9th.. 6-4

[Getch13]

Capping horses is far from easy for me, the information can be overwhelming at times, I use many other peoples resources to come to a pick. I don't post them all in my thread maybe I should, but once I make a pick it becomes my pick. I've enjoyed reading every ones plays here and look forward to more.

Thanks & BOL JB

[JBEX]

Capping horses is far from easy for me, the information can be overwhelming at times, I use many other peoples resources to come to a pick. I don't post them all in my thread maybe I should, but once I make a pick it becomes my pick. I've enjoyed reading every ones plays here and look forward to more.

Thanks & BOL JB

i usually dont either .. most of the time I don't do write ups (small) at all.. bol to you also getch

[JBEX]

del mar

R8 #4 are rated (9-2)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Was going to start a thread, but instead I will touch base on it here. Jbex you seem obsessed with sample size and how what you perceive to be short term results meaning nothing as far as ones handicapping acumen. Why is that Jbex? I mean contests need to have an end and you can not go on for years and years. Is it true that a player that maybe wins 40K on a 14 race horse tourney contest just got lucky? Yeah, but who cares as he is counting the cash not you or me.

With all due respect JBEX, I give extra respect to those that track their plays when posting. I know it takes some guts to post as many plays as you have, but you give the reader no idea on how you are doing. I mean you do not even give a rundown on the results irrespective of whether you do not do long term tracking. Why is that JBEX? I mean it takes very little time to give the reader a simple rundown of action the day after.

Anyhow, JBEX I know you have been in this game for 30+ years as you recently indicated to STR. I have followed Horse racing on and off for years, but only last 5 years have I studied it intently. My challenge to you is to get off your high horse about experience, and respect more results oriented performance. Like Mr. G&T's thread. To that end, I am looking to play you in a long term extended contest starting with the Keeneland meet in OCT. Simple w/p and small exactas. NO caps on winnings. 8K-10K roll. Max $20 a race. I will do all grading so all you have to do is post your action. Let's see if your 30+ years of experience proves to be superior to my 5 years of Dart throwing LOL.

Think it over Jbex. It adds a dimension of pressure to posting plays, but also makes it more rewarding if you do decent. Would be interesting. If you turn the contest down no worries. If you accept, I wish you the best. And I would think it would be close like the contest between Hart, you and I in which we all hit 90% ROI but only on a $1000 Roll. This contest would be much longer. Let me know. And Basically if you accept Keeneland GP, AQ, and SA, DMR, could be the tracks that are allowed.

[Easy-Rider 66]

We can keep it to Max $1 ex plays so someone can not hammer a big exacta payoff.

[JBEX]

going to stick to my format of focusing on maidens with the option to play stakes races..don't want to get into keeping records again and contests..I do enough writeups and people know I put a lot of thought into it..if they want to follow fine if not that's fine also..what I said about sample size is correct and if you don't believe it that's up to you and if you feel i'm ducking that's up to you also..

here's an article on a betting system that was tracked for over 17,000 plays..it did well through 2375 plays (+5.7% ) but took a dive over the next 15,342..at $2/race over 17717 bets you wound up losing $225 or -.63% roi..that's why I dont believe in small sample results

https://punter2pro.com/sample-size-betting-results-analysis/

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK JBEX. Sounds good. Let's stop the critical comments and try to keep things postive. You have your theories and methods and the rest of us have our own methodology. Let's try and help each other make some scores.

[JBEX]

OK JBEX. Sounds good. Let's stop the critical comments and try to keep things postive. You have your theories and methods and the rest of us have our own methodology. Let's try and help each other make some scores.

okay

[mrginandtonic]

going to stick to my format of focusing on maidens with the option to play stakes races..don't want to get into keeping records again and contests..I do enough writeups and people know I put a lot of thought into it..if they want to follow fine if not that's fine also..what I said about sample size is correct and if you don't believe it that's up to you and if you feel i'm ducking that's up to you also..

here's an article on a betting system that was tracked for over 17,000 plays..it did well through 2375 plays (+5.7% ) but took a dive over the next 15,342..at $2/race over 17717 bets you wound up losing $225 or -.63% roi..that's why I dont believe in small sample results


https://punter2pro.com/sample-size-b...ults-analysis/

Let me get this straight, JBEX, you are basing your "meaningless records for small sample" from that article?? This article is about a BETTING SYSTEM from sample size. He is referring to if you are testing a system; you need a big sample size. For example, there is/was a capper in NHL he has a chase system where back tested for several years and carry on with his system for several more years. That is a system and he has collected for years. If your plays here are testing a system that you are implementing, then I understand what you mean by meaningless results in a short term. The plays that I posted (and probably EZ too) are plays that I make already based on the knowledge and "system" that I already used and learned from for the past almost 40 years. But if you are not testing a system, your plays are the reflection of the game. For example, I am terrible at NHL and MLB, my plays are terrible because I don't enough knowledge of the game. I have been testing my system based on odds in NHL for past 9 years and collected over 11000 plays. My system still has flaws and I am still losing money. The point is JBEX, everyone has his or her ways of handicapping, especially in horse racing. I have been in this game far too long and I know not to judge others. You can have all the writes up you want, but at the end of day, what matters to me and I am sure others too, is that are we going make money? We are in this forum to get info and discussion, we are not here to criticize anyone. That is one of the reason I like this forum (unlike the NHL, MLB and other sports forum here). Anyways, his is my take of your small sample size and best of luck to you.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Mr. G&T: You have way more experience in this game then I. 40 years is a long time. MY experience with horse racing goes back to the War Emblem (Kentucky Derby) days and before when I was younger. But I never really studied the game until the last 5 years or so. So my plays are based less on a system and more on a methodology based on BRIS Pace and various other factors. Also the knowledge gained from STR's thread.

Anyway agree with your sentiments. And yeah everyone gets lucky in this game at times, but in the long term the cream rises to the top. I hope to someday be a shark, and score some of these major scores in tournament play. Reality is I have a lot more to learn to get in that league. Now for you I think it's feasible right now. GL.

[JBEX]

Let me get this straight, JBEX, you are basing your "meaningless records for small sample" from that article?? This article is about a BETTING SYSTEM from sample size. He is referring to if you are testing a system; you need a big sample size. For example, there is/was a capper in NHL he has a chase system where back tested for several years and carry on with his system for several more years. That is a system and he has collected for years. If your plays here are testing a system that you are implementing, then I understand what you mean by meaningless results in a short term. The plays that I posted (and probably EZ too) are plays that I make already based on the knowledge and "system" that I already used and learned from for the past almost 40 years. But if you are not testing a system, your plays are the reflection of the game. For example, I am terrible at NHL and MLB, my plays are terrible because I don't enough knowledge of the game. I have been testing my system based on odds in NHL for past 9 years and collected over 11000 plays. My system still has flaws and I am still losing money. The point is JBEX, everyone has his or her ways of handicapping, especially in horse racing. I have been in this game far too long and I know not to judge others. You can have all the writes up you want, but at the end of day, what matters to me and I am sure others too, is that are we going make money? We are in this forum to get info and discussion, we are not here to criticize anyone. That is one of the reason I like this forum (unlike the NHL, MLB and other sports forum here). Anyways, his is my take of your small sample size and best of luck to you.

doesn't make a difference imo mrgnt whether it's a system or handicapping ..you need a large enough sample size to make overall judgments about how good you are..if you trust your methods due to 40 years experience that doesn't mean what you do here over a few hundred or maybe even a couple of thousand plays (as in the early part of that sample) says anything about you're ability overall.. maybe hints that it might be a positive but that's it.. 2300+ plays is quite a lot wouldn't you agree? so you would probably conclude at that point that you're in the chips from here on out but turns out isn't the case after
17717 plays.. I don't want to be judged here off a small sample because it's not reflective of overall ability.. you need a much larger sample size with horses as opposed to sports because you're chasing much higher odds...again we agree to disagree... bol

[Easy-Rider 66]

Bottom line JBEX is you do not want to be judged on your performance here on the forum. You post and you may catch a couple, and it's all good. No problem with that. Each to his own. But let's not be too critical on these so called "small sample sizes". Also too does that link you posted account for exactas?

[mrginandtonic]

doesn't make a difference imo mrgnt whether it's a system or handicapping ..you need a large enough sample size to make overall judgments about how good you are..if you trust your methods due to 40 years experience that doesn't mean what you do here over a few hundred or maybe even a couple of thousand plays (as in the early part of that sample) says anything about you're ability overall.. maybe hints that it might be a positive but that's it.. 2300+ plays is quite a lot wouldn't you agree? so you would probably conclude at that point that you're in the chips from here on out but turns out isn't the case after
17717 plays.. I don't want to be judged here off a small sample because it's not reflective of overall ability.. you need a much larger sample size with horses as opposed to sports because you're chasing much higher odds...again we agree to disagree... bol

So your point is ok to play this game and you will be making money in the long term, let’s say 20years, no matter how you do today or tomorrow. In really life, how big of a bank roll do you need? I think you are misinterpreting the meaning of the sample size and how and what it is used for. Anyways, I am done with this conversation. Good luck to you.

[JBEX]

So your point is ok to play this game and you will be making money in the long term, let’s say 20years, no matter how you do today or tomorrow. In really life, how big of a bank roll do you need? I think you are misinterpreting the meaning of the sample size and how and what it is used for. Anyways, I am done with this conversation. Good luck to you.

I don't know if i'll be making money..at the end of the day for me it comes down to how much faith you have in your abilities rather than how you've done over the last 209 races..what if my 30-1 gets squeezed in the stretch comes again on the outside and runs 3rd by a neck and that's play 160 of 2WP bets..I had $260 return so far and would have had about 350 if he'd won..so now i'm -20% handicapper instead of a +10%..how will that be corrected..over time ..lots of it

[JBEX]

Bottom line JBEX is you do not want to be judged on your performance here on the forum. You post and you may catch a couple, and it's all good. No problem with that. Each to his own. But let's not be too critical on these so called "small sample sizes". Also too does that link you posted account for exactas?

just 2 win each race..if you were trying to test a method or your own handicapping skills you keep it simple. .just WP only imo

[mrginandtonic]

I don't know if i'll be making money..at the end of the day for me it comes down to how much faith you have in your abilities rather than how you've done over the last 209 races..what if my 30-1 gets squeezed in the stretch comes again on the outside and runs 3rd by a neck and that's play 160 of 2WP bets..I had $260 return so far and would have had about 350 if he'd won..so now i'm -20% handicapper instead of a +10%..how will that be corrected..over time ..lots of it

I guess that’s the difference between you and I. I’m all about making money otherwise I will not be doing this. How many of the 30-1 shot you will need to hit in order to cover all the other misses that you had. Hopefully you will not clear your bank roll before you hit that 30-1. Like everything that you post on your forum are just scenarios. How do you fair in real life scenarios?? And maybe that is why you DON’T play for real.

To be honest, I don’t care what your ability is or what my ability is. I just don’t think you understand the concept of taking a sample size for collecting data vs sample size of your plays.

[JBEX]

I guess that’s the difference between you and I. I’m all about making money otherwise I will not be doing this. How many of the 30-1 shot you will need to hit in order to cover all the other misses that you had. Hopefully you will not clear your bank roll before you hit that 30-1. Like everything that you post on your forum are just scenarios. How do you fair in real life scenarios?? And maybe that is why you DON’T play for real.

To be honest, I don’t care what your ability is or what my ability is. I just don’t think you understand the concept of taking a sample size for collecting data vs sample size of your plays.

do you know what a conditioned claiming race is ?

could you make a judgement on how a horse who ran pretty good in an allowance race would fare in a drop down to condition claimers?

do you know what form cycle is ?

do you know how to figure out how fast a race you're horse came out of if he didn't win ?

no pace figures ?

everything you do (besides stable horses) relies on race setup and often that doesn't pan out like you thought it would.. so when you win those I guess it's just luck right?







and you have the magical ability to figure out how far a horse can run to the sixteenth of a mile from 8 furlongs to 10 furlongs based on sire and dam sire... wow!!

[JBEX]

del mar

R3 #3 himmah (6-1)

nicely set up to stretch out off last ..ran big at a mile 2 back while being close up to a very fast pace..lots of solid races in Ireland as a 2yo so the ability is definitely there


R8 #7 gia lula (7-2)

price will probably be a little short but this distance and level good fit for him.. trainer solid turf/dirt
, short layoff and 8/27 >=2 class drop drowns

[mrginandtonic]

do you know what a conditioned claiming race is ?

could you make a judgement on how a horse who ran pretty good in an allowance race would fare in a drop down to condition claimers?

do you know what form cycle is ?

do you know how to figure out how fast a race you're horse came out of if he didn't win ?

no pace figures ?

everything you do (besides stable horses) relies on race setup and often that doesn't pan out like you thought it would.. so when you win those I guess it's just luck right?







and you have the magical ability to figure out how far a horse can run to the sixteenth of a mile from 8 furlongs to 10 furlongs based on sire and dam sire... wow!!

You know what JBEX, you are the most knowledgeable and best horse handicapper in this forum. No doubt. We are here every day to see what more insight you have for us. If I don't know those questions, I will not be playing the horses. And if you think you can win by knowing these info and get you to the winner, you are no doubt in my mind the best because you are the only handicapper here that have access on those information. And yes, my handicapping is pure luck. You got me. And please continue with your insights and scenarios. I am sure overtime, you will have only winning plays for us. Keep up the good work.

[JBEX]

You know what JBEX, you are the most knowledgeable and best horse handicapper in this forum. No doubt. We are here every day to see what more insight you have for us. If I don't know those questions, I will not be playing the horses. And if you think you can win by knowing these info and get you to the winner, you are no doubt in my mind the best because you are the only handicapper here that have access on those information. And yes, my handicapping is pure luck. You got me. And please continue with your insights and scenarios. I am sure overtime, you will have only winning plays for us. Keep up the good work.

didn't say I was.. just talking about a well rounded approach besides how the race sets up.. not saying that's unimportant to consider but to dismiss all the others or most of them is very narrow imo..and I'm not talking about the obvious ones like final beyer or good jockey or trainer...I use those too of course but almost never lead off with them as my reasons..you can have the last word

[mrginandtonic]

My last word to you,JBEX is good luck with your picks. I will be following because of your in-depth understanding and analysis of the game. There is no one better than you here in this forum. I will shut down my thread. I don’t want anyone to lose money because of my guesses. I can feel my luck is running out after one year. Don’t let me down.

[JBEX]

My last word to you,JBEX is good luck with your picks. I will be following because of your in-depth understanding and analysis of the game. There is no one better than you here in this forum. I will shut down my thread. I don’t want anyone to lose money because of my guesses. I can feel my luck is running out after one year. Don’t let me down.

I'm a man of my word.. the end