Just can't catch a break in the NHL this year. Record was down again tonight at 2-6, -3.9 units.
Record:
110-170-9
39.29%
-27.35 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#148
Tonight's picks so far:
Maple Leafs @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
Penguins @ SENATORS ML +120
STARS @ Devils ML +130
DUCKS @ Blackhawks ML +180
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#149
And the final picks:
FLAMES @ Panthers ML +145
Flames @ Panthers OVER 5.5 +140
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#150
Another bad day. I thought that correcting the data in those formulas would help, but no such luck so far. I'm going to give it some more time to see if it improves, and if not, I'm going to have to shut down and retool. For tonight, the record was 1-5, -3.8 units.
Record:
111-175-9
38.81%
-31.15 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#151
I've decided to go ahead and suspend NHL betting for now to take a closer look at my formulas. I should be back up and running in a couple of weeks.
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#152
Alright, I'm back. I've spent the past two weeks testing new formulas. They back-test well, and for the past two weeks, they've resulted in being up +4.8 units. One pick for today:
Flames @ Predators OVER 5 -110
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#153
Well, the first pick turned out well. Went 1-0, +0.91 units. Even though I'm starting with a new model, I'm going to keep tracking for the whole season using the same record:
Record:
112-175-9
39.02%
-30.24 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#154
My only play for the Winter Classic game today is on the total. Couldn't find decent value on sides, either on the ML or PL. If you can't find a line at 5 for the total, then most of the books are still offering good odds on 5.5. As long as they've doing better than -155 at 5, or better than +115 at 5.5, then I'd take it. I'll have plays for the other games later in the day.
Rangers @ Flyers OVER 5 -125
Comment
spk1313
SBR High Roller
11-18-11
127
#155
Why do you like the under here? Just curious, as these two teams tend gut out low-scoring affairs...and especially in primetime matchups.. Just looking for someone to talk me out of pounding under 5.5...
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#156
Originally posted by spk1313
Why do you like the under here? Just curious, as these two teams tend gut out low-scoring affairs...and especially in primetime matchups.. Just looking for someone to talk me out of pounding under 5.5...
Looks like under 5.5 was the better bet. I still pushed at 5, though. All of my handicapping is based on pure statistics, no subjective criteria, and based on the numbers, my model had an over 5 at about a 65% chance of hitting. Over 5.5 was at just a touch under 50%, so the plus odds would be profitable over time.
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#157
Only two more plays for the rest of today's games:
Avalanche @ KINGS ML -160
Avalanche @ Kings UNDER 5 +115
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#158
Not much for today. Record was 1-1-1, +0.15 units.
Record:
113-176-10
39.10%
-30.09 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#159
Today's picks:
Lightning @ Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 -130
Islanders @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
Coyotes @ Blues UNDER 5 +EV
RED WINGS @ Stars PL -1.5 +195
The Red Wings ML is also profitable at -155, but I see more profit in the PL. If you like less risk, though, go with the ML.
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#160
Finished up just a bit at 2-1-1, +0.77 units.
Record:
115-177-11
39.38%
-29.32 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#161
Here are tonight's picks. You'll notice that I'm betting on both the ML and PL on the same game. I'll do this occasionally if I think the odds are favorable enough on both. You could also split your bet and do a half unit on each, or just pick one or the other. For the record displayed in this thread, I use all of the picks, so both would be included.
Jets @ CANADIENS ML -135
Jets @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -140
Jets @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +230
BRUINS @ Devils ML -160
Bruins @ Devils UNDER 5 +125
SHARKS @ Ducks ML -160
Wild @ Canucks UNDER 5 +110
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#162
Not a bad day at all. Record was 5-2, +3.39 units.
Record:
120-179-11
40.13%
-25.93 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#163
A ton of plays today, including several instances of taking both the ML and the PL. Unusual to have so many of those, but the odds are just there today. Here are the picks:
Flames @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +120
Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS ML -150
Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS PL -1.5 +180
Panthers @ RANGERS ML -175
Panthers @ RANGERS PL -1.5 +170
Panthers @ Rangers UNDER 5 +105
BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers ML +105
BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers PL +1.5 -275
Blackhawks @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -130
Lightning @ Senators OVER 5.5 -125
Oilers @ BLUES PL -1.5 +140
Oilers @ Blues UNDER 5 +120
Stars @ PREDATORS ML -135
Stars @ PREDATORS PL -1.5 +210
COYOTES @ Kings PL +1.5 -240
Coyotes @ Kings UNDER 5 -105
Blue Jackets @ SHARKS PL -1.5 +125
Blue Jackets @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#164
Down just a tiny bit for the day. Record was 9-8-1, -0.43 units.
Record:
129-187-12
40.82%
-26.36 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#165
Today's picks:
Panthers @ DEVILS ML -145
Panthers @ DEVILS PL -1.5 +210
Panthers @ Devils UNDER 5 +110
Rangers @ Penguins UNDER 5 +125
Sabres @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
Avalanche @ BLACKHAWKS PL -1.5 +155
Islanders @ Ducks OVER 5.5 -110
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#166
Great night! Went 5-2, +3.95 units.
Record:
134-189-12
41.49%
-22.41 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#167
Just got back from work, so I'm off to bed as soon as I finish my NFL wagers. Before that, wanted to post my picks for the early NHL games. I'll have more picks for the evening games after I wake up. Here are the first picks:
Senators @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -135
Canucks @ BRUINS ML -160
Canucks @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +110
Oilers @ Stars UNDER 5.5 -115
BLUE JACKETS @ Kings PL +1.5 -175
Blue Jackets @ Kings UNDER 5 +110
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#168
A little last minute for the 7pm games, but here are the rest of my picks:
Jets @ SABRES ML -130
Jets @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
Lightning @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -120
RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs ML -150
RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs PL -1.5 +200
Devils @ Penguins UNDER 5.5 -135
Islanders @ COYOTES ML -160
Islanders @ COYOTES PL -1.5 +195
Avalanche @ BLUES PL -1.5 +150
Wild @ Flames OVER 5 -110
Capitals @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#169
Not a bad day at all. Went 10-9, +1.39 units.
Record:
144-198-12
42.11%
-21.02 units
Comment
nammertl
SBR MVP
12-06-11
1204
#170
how did u go 10-9 with only 17 games played?
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#171
Originally posted by nammertl
how did u go 10-9 with only 17 games played?
Um, look at the picks. All of them are posted prior to the start of the games, and they're all still there. I sometimes have multiple plays on a single game. For example, both a total and a moneyline on the same game.
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#172
Only two plays for today:
Flyers @ Senators OVER 5.5 -135
Red Wings @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 -115
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#173
Down just a bit for today at 1-1, -0.26 units.
Record:
145-199-12
42.15%
-21.28 units
Comment
toddorts
SBR Wise Guy
09-30-11
882
#174
Three picks for today's games:
CANUCKS @ Panthers ML -165
CANUCKS @ Panthers PL -1.5 +190
Capitals @ Kings UNDER 5 +EV