And two final picks:
Coyotes @ DUCKS ML +105
Coyotes @ Ducks OVER 5.5 +115
Coyotes @ DUCKS ML +105
Coyotes @ Ducks OVER 5.5 +115
-
Comment -
Another down night. Record was 2-4, -1.75 units.
Record:
108-164-9
39.71%
-23.45 unitsComment -
First picks for the night:
Stars @ ISLANDERS ML +115
Stars @ Islanders OVER 5.5 +105
FLAMES @ Lightning ML +EV
Flames @ Lightning OVER 5.5 -105Comment -
More picks:
FLYERS @ Canadiens PL -1.5 +250
Flyers @ Canadiens OVER 5.5 +115Comment -
And another:
RED WINGS @ Predators PL -1.5 +230Comment -
And another:
OILERS @ COYOTES ML +120Comment -
Just can't catch a break in the NHL this year. Record was down again tonight at 2-6, -3.9 units.
Record:
110-170-9
39.29%
-27.35 unitsComment -
Tonight's picks so far:
Maple Leafs @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
Penguins @ SENATORS ML +120
STARS @ Devils ML +130
DUCKS @ Blackhawks ML +180Comment -
And the final picks:
FLAMES @ Panthers ML +145
Flames @ Panthers OVER 5.5 +140Comment -
Another bad day. I thought that correcting the data in those formulas would help, but no such luck so far. I'm going to give it some more time to see if it improves, and if not, I'm going to have to shut down and retool. For tonight, the record was 1-5, -3.8 units.
Record:
111-175-9
38.81%
-31.15 unitsComment -
I've decided to go ahead and suspend NHL betting for now to take a closer look at my formulas. I should be back up and running in a couple of weeks.Comment -
Alright, I'm back. I've spent the past two weeks testing new formulas. They back-test well, and for the past two weeks, they've resulted in being up +4.8 units. One pick for today:
Flames @ Predators OVER 5 -110Comment -
Well, the first pick turned out well. Went 1-0, +0.91 units. Even though I'm starting with a new model, I'm going to keep tracking for the whole season using the same record:
Record:
112-175-9
39.02%
-30.24 unitsComment -
My only play for the Winter Classic game today is on the total. Couldn't find decent value on sides, either on the ML or PL. If you can't find a line at 5 for the total, then most of the books are still offering good odds on 5.5. As long as they've doing better than -155 at 5, or better than +115 at 5.5, then I'd take it. I'll have plays for the other games later in the day.
Rangers @ Flyers OVER 5 -125Comment -
Why do you like the under here? Just curious, as these two teams tend gut out low-scoring affairs...and especially in primetime matchups.. Just looking for someone to talk me out of pounding under 5.5...Comment -
Looks like under 5.5 was the better bet.Originally posted by spk1313
I still pushed at 5, though. All of my handicapping is based on pure statistics, no subjective criteria, and based on the numbers, my model had an over 5 at about a 65% chance of hitting. Over 5.5 was at just a touch under 50%, so the plus odds would be profitable over time.
Comment -
Only two more plays for the rest of today's games:
Avalanche @ KINGS ML -160
Avalanche @ Kings UNDER 5 +115Comment -
Not much for today. Record was 1-1-1, +0.15 units.
Record:
113-176-10
39.10%
-30.09 unitsComment -
Today's picks:
Lightning @ Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 -130
Islanders @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
Coyotes @ Blues UNDER 5 +EV
RED WINGS @ Stars PL -1.5 +195
The Red Wings ML is also profitable at -155, but I see more profit in the PL. If you like less risk, though, go with the ML.Comment -
Finished up just a bit at 2-1-1, +0.77 units.
Record:
115-177-11
39.38%
-29.32 unitsComment -
Here are tonight's picks. You'll notice that I'm betting on both the ML and PL on the same game. I'll do this occasionally if I think the odds are favorable enough on both. You could also split your bet and do a half unit on each, or just pick one or the other. For the record displayed in this thread, I use all of the picks, so both would be included.
Jets @ CANADIENS ML -135
Jets @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -140
Jets @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +230
BRUINS @ Devils ML -160
Bruins @ Devils UNDER 5 +125
SHARKS @ Ducks ML -160
Wild @ Canucks UNDER 5 +110Comment -
Not a bad day at all. Record was 5-2, +3.39 units.
Record:
120-179-11
40.13%
-25.93 unitsComment -
A ton of plays today, including several instances of taking both the ML and the PL. Unusual to have so many of those, but the odds are just there today. Here are the picks:
Flames @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +120
Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS ML -150
Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS PL -1.5 +180
Panthers @ RANGERS ML -175
Panthers @ RANGERS PL -1.5 +170
Panthers @ Rangers UNDER 5 +105
BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers ML +105
BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers PL +1.5 -275
Blackhawks @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -130
Lightning @ Senators OVER 5.5 -125
Oilers @ BLUES PL -1.5 +140
Oilers @ Blues UNDER 5 +120
Stars @ PREDATORS ML -135
Stars @ PREDATORS PL -1.5 +210
COYOTES @ Kings PL +1.5 -240
Coyotes @ Kings UNDER 5 -105
Blue Jackets @ SHARKS PL -1.5 +125
Blue Jackets @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120Comment -
Down just a tiny bit for the day. Record was 9-8-1, -0.43 units.
Record:
129-187-12
40.82%
-26.36 unitsComment -
Today's picks:
Panthers @ DEVILS ML -145
Panthers @ DEVILS PL -1.5 +210
Panthers @ Devils UNDER 5 +110
Rangers @ Penguins UNDER 5 +125
Sabres @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
Avalanche @ BLACKHAWKS PL -1.5 +155
Islanders @ Ducks OVER 5.5 -110Comment -
Great night! Went 5-2, +3.95 units.
Record:
134-189-12
41.49%
-22.41 unitsComment -
Just got back from work, so I'm off to bed as soon as I finish my NFL wagers. Before that, wanted to post my picks for the early NHL games. I'll have more picks for the evening games after I wake up. Here are the first picks:
Senators @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -135
Canucks @ BRUINS ML -160
Canucks @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +110
Oilers @ Stars UNDER 5.5 -115
BLUE JACKETS @ Kings PL +1.5 -175
Blue Jackets @ Kings UNDER 5 +110Comment -
A little last minute for the 7pm games, but here are the rest of my picks:
Jets @ SABRES ML -130
Jets @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
Lightning @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -120
RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs ML -150
RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs PL -1.5 +200
Devils @ Penguins UNDER 5.5 -135
Islanders @ COYOTES ML -160
Islanders @ COYOTES PL -1.5 +195
Avalanche @ BLUES PL -1.5 +150
Wild @ Flames OVER 5 -110
Capitals @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120Comment -
Not a bad day at all. Went 10-9, +1.39 units.
Record:
144-198-12
42.11%
-21.02 unitsComment -
how did u go 10-9 with only 17 games played?Comment -
Um, look at the picks. All of them are posted prior to the start of the games, and they're all still there. I sometimes have multiple plays on a single game. For example, both a total and a moneyline on the same game.Originally posted by nammertlComment -
Only two plays for today:
Flyers @ Senators OVER 5.5 -135
Red Wings @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 -115Comment -
Down just a bit for today at 1-1, -0.26 units.
Record:
145-199-12
42.15%
-21.28 unitsComment -
Three picks for today's games:
CANUCKS @ Panthers ML -165
CANUCKS @ Panthers PL -1.5 +190
Capitals @ Kings UNDER 5 +EVComment -
Bad night. Went 0-3, -3.0 units.
Record:
145-202-12
41.79%
-24.28 unitsComment
