Toddorts NHL 2011-2012 Season Picks

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  • toddorts
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-30-11
    • 882

    #141
    And two final picks:

    Coyotes @ DUCKS ML +105
    Coyotes @ Ducks OVER 5.5 +115
    Comment
    • toddorts
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-30-11
      • 882

      #142
      Another down night. Record was 2-4, -1.75 units.

      Record:

      108-164-9
      39.71%
      -23.45 units
      Comment
      • toddorts
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 09-30-11
        • 882

        #143
        First picks for the night:

        Stars @ ISLANDERS ML +115
        Stars @ Islanders OVER 5.5 +105
        FLAMES @ Lightning ML +EV
        Flames @ Lightning OVER 5.5 -105
        Comment
        • toddorts
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-30-11
          • 882

          #144
          More picks:

          FLYERS @ Canadiens PL -1.5 +250
          Flyers @ Canadiens OVER 5.5 +115
          Comment
          • toddorts
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-30-11
            • 882

            #145
            And another:

            RED WINGS @ Predators PL -1.5 +230
            Comment
            • toddorts
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-30-11
              • 882

              #146
              And another:

              OILERS @ COYOTES ML +120
              Comment
              • toddorts
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-30-11
                • 882

                #147
                Just can't catch a break in the NHL this year. Record was down again tonight at 2-6, -3.9 units.

                Record:

                110-170-9
                39.29%
                -27.35 units
                Comment
                • toddorts
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-30-11
                  • 882

                  #148
                  Tonight's picks so far:

                  Maple Leafs @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
                  Penguins @ SENATORS ML +120
                  STARS @ Devils ML +130
                  DUCKS @ Blackhawks ML +180
                  Comment
                  • toddorts
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-30-11
                    • 882

                    #149
                    And the final picks:

                    FLAMES @ Panthers ML +145
                    Flames @ Panthers OVER 5.5 +140
                    Comment
                    • toddorts
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-30-11
                      • 882

                      #150
                      Another bad day. I thought that correcting the data in those formulas would help, but no such luck so far. I'm going to give it some more time to see if it improves, and if not, I'm going to have to shut down and retool. For tonight, the record was 1-5, -3.8 units.

                      Record:

                      111-175-9
                      38.81%
                      -31.15 units
                      Comment
                      • toddorts
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-30-11
                        • 882

                        #151
                        I've decided to go ahead and suspend NHL betting for now to take a closer look at my formulas. I should be back up and running in a couple of weeks.
                        Comment
                        • toddorts
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-30-11
                          • 882

                          #152
                          Alright, I'm back. I've spent the past two weeks testing new formulas. They back-test well, and for the past two weeks, they've resulted in being up +4.8 units. One pick for today:

                          Flames @ Predators OVER 5 -110
                          Comment
                          • toddorts
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-30-11
                            • 882

                            #153
                            Well, the first pick turned out well. Went 1-0, +0.91 units. Even though I'm starting with a new model, I'm going to keep tracking for the whole season using the same record:

                            Record:

                            112-175-9
                            39.02%
                            -30.24 units
                            Comment
                            • toddorts
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-30-11
                              • 882

                              #154
                              My only play for the Winter Classic game today is on the total. Couldn't find decent value on sides, either on the ML or PL. If you can't find a line at 5 for the total, then most of the books are still offering good odds on 5.5. As long as they've doing better than -155 at 5, or better than +115 at 5.5, then I'd take it. I'll have plays for the other games later in the day.

                              Rangers @ Flyers OVER 5 -125
                              Comment
                              • spk1313
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 11-18-11
                                • 127

                                #155
                                Why do you like the under here? Just curious, as these two teams tend gut out low-scoring affairs...and especially in primetime matchups.. Just looking for someone to talk me out of pounding under 5.5...
                                Comment
                                • toddorts
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 09-30-11
                                  • 882

                                  #156
                                  Originally posted by spk1313
                                  Why do you like the under here? Just curious, as these two teams tend gut out low-scoring affairs...and especially in primetime matchups.. Just looking for someone to talk me out of pounding under 5.5...
                                  Looks like under 5.5 was the better bet. I still pushed at 5, though. All of my handicapping is based on pure statistics, no subjective criteria, and based on the numbers, my model had an over 5 at about a 65% chance of hitting. Over 5.5 was at just a touch under 50%, so the plus odds would be profitable over time.
                                  Comment
                                  • toddorts
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-30-11
                                    • 882

                                    #157
                                    Only two more plays for the rest of today's games:

                                    Avalanche @ KINGS ML -160
                                    Avalanche @ Kings UNDER 5 +115
                                    Comment
                                    • toddorts
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-30-11
                                      • 882

                                      #158
                                      Not much for today. Record was 1-1-1, +0.15 units.

                                      Record:

                                      113-176-10
                                      39.10%
                                      -30.09 units
                                      Comment
                                      • toddorts
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 09-30-11
                                        • 882

                                        #159
                                        Today's picks:

                                        Lightning @ Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 -130
                                        Islanders @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
                                        Coyotes @ Blues UNDER 5 +EV
                                        RED WINGS @ Stars PL -1.5 +195

                                        The Red Wings ML is also profitable at -155, but I see more profit in the PL. If you like less risk, though, go with the ML.
                                        Comment
                                        • toddorts
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 09-30-11
                                          • 882

                                          #160
                                          Finished up just a bit at 2-1-1, +0.77 units.

                                          Record:

                                          115-177-11
                                          39.38%
                                          -29.32 units
                                          Comment
                                          • toddorts
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 09-30-11
                                            • 882

                                            #161
                                            Here are tonight's picks. You'll notice that I'm betting on both the ML and PL on the same game. I'll do this occasionally if I think the odds are favorable enough on both. You could also split your bet and do a half unit on each, or just pick one or the other. For the record displayed in this thread, I use all of the picks, so both would be included.

                                            Jets @ CANADIENS ML -135
                                            Jets @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -140
                                            Jets @ CANADIENS PL -1.5 +230
                                            BRUINS @ Devils ML -160
                                            Bruins @ Devils UNDER 5 +125
                                            SHARKS @ Ducks ML -160
                                            Wild @ Canucks UNDER 5 +110
                                            Comment
                                            • toddorts
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-30-11
                                              • 882

                                              #162
                                              Not a bad day at all. Record was 5-2, +3.39 units.

                                              Record:

                                              120-179-11
                                              40.13%
                                              -25.93 units
                                              Comment
                                              • toddorts
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-30-11
                                                • 882

                                                #163
                                                A ton of plays today, including several instances of taking both the ML and the PL. Unusual to have so many of those, but the odds are just there today. Here are the picks:

                                                Flames @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +120
                                                Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS ML -150
                                                Jets @ MAPLE LEAFS PL -1.5 +180
                                                Panthers @ RANGERS ML -175
                                                Panthers @ RANGERS PL -1.5 +170
                                                Panthers @ Rangers UNDER 5 +105
                                                BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers ML +105
                                                BLACKHAWKS @ Flyers PL +1.5 -275
                                                Blackhawks @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -130
                                                Lightning @ Senators OVER 5.5 -125
                                                Oilers @ BLUES PL -1.5 +140
                                                Oilers @ Blues UNDER 5 +120
                                                Stars @ PREDATORS ML -135
                                                Stars @ PREDATORS PL -1.5 +210
                                                COYOTES @ Kings PL +1.5 -240
                                                Coyotes @ Kings UNDER 5 -105
                                                Blue Jackets @ SHARKS PL -1.5 +125
                                                Blue Jackets @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120
                                                Comment
                                                • toddorts
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-30-11
                                                  • 882

                                                  #164
                                                  Down just a tiny bit for the day. Record was 9-8-1, -0.43 units.

                                                  Record:

                                                  129-187-12
                                                  40.82%
                                                  -26.36 units
                                                  Comment
                                                  • toddorts
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-30-11
                                                    • 882

                                                    #165
                                                    Today's picks:

                                                    Panthers @ DEVILS ML -145
                                                    Panthers @ DEVILS PL -1.5 +210
                                                    Panthers @ Devils UNDER 5 +110
                                                    Rangers @ Penguins UNDER 5 +125
                                                    Sabres @ Hurricanes OVER 5.5 +EV
                                                    Avalanche @ BLACKHAWKS PL -1.5 +155
                                                    Islanders @ Ducks OVER 5.5 -110
                                                    Comment
                                                    • toddorts
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 09-30-11
                                                      • 882

                                                      #166
                                                      Great night! Went 5-2, +3.95 units.

                                                      Record:

                                                      134-189-12
                                                      41.49%
                                                      -22.41 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • toddorts
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 09-30-11
                                                        • 882

                                                        #167
                                                        Just got back from work, so I'm off to bed as soon as I finish my NFL wagers. Before that, wanted to post my picks for the early NHL games. I'll have more picks for the evening games after I wake up. Here are the first picks:

                                                        Senators @ Flyers OVER 5.5 -135
                                                        Canucks @ BRUINS ML -160
                                                        Canucks @ Bruins OVER 5.5 +110
                                                        Oilers @ Stars UNDER 5.5 -115
                                                        BLUE JACKETS @ Kings PL +1.5 -175
                                                        Blue Jackets @ Kings UNDER 5 +110
                                                        Comment
                                                        • toddorts
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 09-30-11
                                                          • 882

                                                          #168
                                                          A little last minute for the 7pm games, but here are the rest of my picks:

                                                          Jets @ SABRES ML -130
                                                          Jets @ SABRES PL -1.5 +225
                                                          Lightning @ Canadiens UNDER 5.5 -120
                                                          RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs ML -150
                                                          RED WINGS @ Maple Leafs PL -1.5 +200
                                                          Devils @ Penguins UNDER 5.5 -135
                                                          Islanders @ COYOTES ML -160
                                                          Islanders @ COYOTES PL -1.5 +195
                                                          Avalanche @ BLUES PL -1.5 +150
                                                          Wild @ Flames OVER 5 -110
                                                          Capitals @ Sharks UNDER 5.5 -120
                                                          Comment
                                                          • toddorts
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-30-11
                                                            • 882

                                                            #169
                                                            Not a bad day at all. Went 10-9, +1.39 units.

                                                            Record:

                                                            144-198-12
                                                            42.11%
                                                            -21.02 units
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nammertl
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-06-11
                                                              • 1204

                                                              #170
                                                              how did u go 10-9 with only 17 games played?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • toddorts
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 09-30-11
                                                                • 882

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by nammertl
                                                                how did u go 10-9 with only 17 games played?
                                                                Um, look at the picks. All of them are posted prior to the start of the games, and they're all still there. I sometimes have multiple plays on a single game. For example, both a total and a moneyline on the same game.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • toddorts
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 09-30-11
                                                                  • 882

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Only two plays for today:

                                                                  Flyers @ Senators OVER 5.5 -135
                                                                  Red Wings @ Blackhawks OVER 5.5 -115
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • toddorts
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 09-30-11
                                                                    • 882

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Down just a bit for today at 1-1, -0.26 units.

                                                                    Record:

                                                                    145-199-12
                                                                    42.15%
                                                                    -21.28 units
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • toddorts
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 09-30-11
                                                                      • 882

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Three picks for today's games:

                                                                      CANUCKS @ Panthers ML -165
                                                                      CANUCKS @ Panthers PL -1.5 +190
                                                                      Capitals @ Kings UNDER 5 +EV
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • toddorts
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 09-30-11
                                                                        • 882

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Bad night. Went 0-3, -3.0 units.

                                                                        Record:

                                                                        145-202-12
                                                                        41.79%
                                                                        -24.28 units
                                                                        Comment
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